SWMBO wrote:
Every Midnight ‘B****t Dump’ Favored Biden, Not Just In Contested States
Georgette J****** 6, 2021 Democrats, Joe Biden, Politics Comments Off on Every Midnight ‘B****t Dump’ Favored Biden, Not Just In Contested States
On e******n night, the rig was in for Joe Biden, but they had to stop v****g in certain states to deliver b****t dumps, barely placing him over the real Trump totals. In some cases, they had to remove v**es from President Trump to make their b****t dumps even work.
The National Pulse reported:
A new report from a number of reputable, PhD statisticians analyzes the suspicious floods of b****ts trickling in following the November 3rd e******n, concluding all were in favor of Joe Biden.
The report analyzes “v**e dumps” – a “25,000+ v**e differential between P**********l candidates, received/recorded at one time.”
“The conclusion is that all we were able to find were net Biden Dumps,” the report summary notes.
Analysis extends to states both won and lost by President Trump, including Florida, Georgia, Illinois, Kentucky, Maine, Michigan, Minnesota, Missouri, Nebraska, New Jersey, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Virginia, and Wisconsin.
Odd “sunrise ritual” burns 2lbs before dinner tonight
Odd “sunrise ritual” burns 2lbs before dinner tonight
Several states experienced more than one v**e dump, but all netted in favor of Biden.
In Georgia, which saw dumps net Biden 119,811 v**es, there were two “10-sigma jumps” on November 4th at 01:42:47 03:23:48 UTC.
“Ten-sigma jumps have a probability of 1 in 1023,” the report notes.
Similarly, Michigan saw a v**e dump net Biden 135,290 v**es, with the probability of such phenomena occurring equating to “1 in 10117 — or 14 Powerball wins in a row” per the report.
The post Every Midnight ‘B****t Dump’ Favored Biden, Not Just In Contested States appeared first on Conservative Daily Post.
Every Midnight ‘B****t Dump’ Favored Biden, Not Ju... (
show quote)
I see it has something to do with "a number of reputable [though unnamed here] PhD statisticians". More about them later.
If the allegation is true, can anyone point to a person who has been prosecuted for committing such a wrong? Or who, if not prosecuted, has at least been _named_?
I understand your post is about "dumps", not necessarily called "v***r f***d". Part of my argument here is that Trump has already led us down the garden path (phrase explained below) about "v***r f***d" and wasted our time on that topic, so now I'm understandably reluctant to be led down yet another garden path about "dumps" which looks like it may have also been just conjured up, as is usual with Trump and so many of those who support him.)
("Garden path" refers to the saying "to be led down [or up] the garden path", meaning to be deceived, tricked, or seduced. ( https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Garden-path_sentence ) )
In my opinion, Trump (and some of his supporters) just makes up things (about v***r f***d and some other topics) and his supporters either just believe wh**ever he tells them or say likewise with their own disregard for t***h.
It takes very _little_ effort for Trump, or anyone, to just make up something and say it. It sometimes takes an _enormous_ amount of effort to do all the fact-checking and correcting of all the damage done in the ripple effects from a President's false or misleading statement. Trump and his gun-toting window-breaking supporters can always say they were just joking, but it still has consequences (e.g. one c*****l p****eman dead, many people threatened, an entire democratic process threatened, and entire peaceful t******r of p***r threatened, in the world's superpower country -- oh, well if it's just a joke, that's ok, why should we care about a little murder here and there and a little overturning of an e******n here and there.) --
There are people who try out plenty of outrageous statements and acts; occasionally they might hit on one that works; and when it doesn't work, they can always say, "Oh, I didn't mean that seriously." --
Despite the title which I'm about to cite, those people are not all r****ts, just some of them are. Here, the point is that consequential behavior may be done in a lighthearted way, but that doesn't excuse it. See: "From lynchings to the Capitol: R****m and the violence of revelry" subtitled "The history of the US shows us that, when it comes to w***e s*******y, entertainment and violence go hand in hand." At:
https://www.aljazeera.com/features/2021/1/13/from-lynchings-to-the-us-capitol-us-r****m-and-the-violence-of-revelry
I insert this dividing line to break up the long reply into sections:
- ~ - ~ - ~ - ~ - ~ - ~ - ~ - ~ - ~ - ~ - ~ - ~ - ~ - ~ - ~ - ~ - ~ - ~ - ~ - ~ - ~ - ~ - ~ - ~ - ~ - ~ - ~
Some, perhaps most, of my information about e******ns comes from the book "How Trump Stole 2020" by Greg Palast (gregpalast.com). Greg Palast is an investigative reporter who investigates, sues, and writes about various forms of e******n wrongs. The main wrongs he writes about are wrongful mass purges of legal v**ers, and those purges are done by e******n officials.
There is a connection between the two topics "purge" and "v***r f***d". The reasoning (or excuse) for a mass purge is often that it's to prevent v***r f***d.
(There's potential for humor in that. Mass purges involve many thousands of v**ers (so when a purge is wrongly done, it's significant). ("Dumps" as alleged in your post could also be significant because of the large numbers of b****ts allegedly involved.) --
but "v***r f***d", so often cited by Trump and his supporters, normally interpreted to mean incidents involving one v**e at a time, are unlikely to be significant, because they take so much more effort to do and involve so few v**es (that's the humor: the relative smallness of it is such a contrast to the relative largeness of the numbers of wrongly purged v**ers) --
there are very small numbers of confirmed cases of v***r f***d, though very large numbers of unconfirmed cases of it are spun out of thin air by Trump and his supporters. But I bet I can say a larger number than they do! I've had training. Googleplex! There, that ought to do for starters. Top that! (And no, a trivial answer such as "Googleplex plus 1" is not allowed.))
I am not there with my nose in the evidence to see it first-hand for myself, although the book (the aforementioned "How Trump Stole 2020") does reproduce some of it quite convincingly. Palast does win some lawsuits about e******ns. It's not just him doing the work; he assembles a team, for example, a team of "address hygiene" experts to find out whether v**ers really moved or not.
Well, my point here (to be more firmly established by the end of this reply) is that there is evidence of wrongs in e******ns, but the most solid evidence is not in Trump's favor. To put it mildly.
(I wish I could SCREAM at Trump supporters. I would scream: "THIS is what EVIDENCE looks like! Look over here at what Greg Palast is proving! Look over here (to be described below) at what the Pennsylvania Lieutenant Governor is talking about! Significant evidence involves specificity and is more than just hearsay. You guys got NUTHIN'!" But I'm too polite and cautious to scream -- and there will always be some "one more" piece of "information" I may not know yet, and the "one more" and "one more" and ... goes on forever.)
- ~ - ~ - ~ - ~ - ~ - ~ - ~ - ~ - ~ - ~ - ~ - ~ - ~ - ~ - ~ - ~ - ~ - ~ - ~ - ~ - ~ - ~ - ~ - ~ - ~ - ~ - ~
Outside of the Palast book, there were actually a few v***r f***d cases uncovered in Pennsylvania. Read it and weep: https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/politics/pennsylvania-lt-gov-fetterman-relentlessly-trolls-dan-patrick-seeking-1m-v**er-fraud-bounty/ar-BB1cayv1 Some people (including me) think it is funny, but here's a more serious part: "it documents how truly rare v***r f***d is and how impossible it is to truly pull it off". (Palast has also said that v***r f***d is very rare; he quotes a professor who is an expert on it --
that's in the same book, on page 28, where he writes: "Rutgers Professor Lorraine Minnite, the nation's top v**e f***d expert, found just six verified cases of v**er impersonation [that's just one kind of v***r f***d, I suppose, but maybe it's the _main_ kind] over 12 years of our nation's e******ns. The 'E******n Law Journal' reported that 'the proportion of the population reporting v**er impersonation is indistinguishable from that reporting abduction by extraterrestrials.'")
Above, I mentioned "few v***r f***d cases uncovered in Pennsylvania". Here is the name of one of those people being charged with v***r f***d: Bruce Bartman. (I want to scream, his _*_NAME_*_ is ...) ( https://www.forbes.com/sites/alisondurkee/2020/12/21/pennsylvania-man-charged-with-v**er-fraud-for-casting-b****t-for-trump-under-dead-mothers-name/?sh=6608bdcf59bf ). The other two are Ralph Thurman ( https://www.inquirer.com/news/pennsylvania-e******n-trump-lawsuits-porter-wright-court-linda-kerns-biden-20201113.html ) and Robert Lynn ( https://www.wnep.com/article/news/local/luzerne-county/man-arrested-for-v**er-fraud-in-luzerne-county/523-7fc4fd2f-9105-47e7-a510-2b5ff176ab2c ). More about them in a bit. But first, a brief aside:
Meanwhile, here's what happens (or fails to happen) when Trump supporters talk about v***r f***d:
"Despite the president’s continued rhetoric about widespread and systemic v***r f***d in the state, his campaign’s legal filings have thus far failed to lodge even a single allegation — let alone provide evidence — of one b****t being deliberately cast illegally." ( https://www.inquirer.com/news/pennsylvania-e******n-trump-lawsuits-porter-wright-court-linda-kerns-biden-20201113.html )
Now back to those three identified real v***r f***d cases:
All three of the above _identified_ (but not identified by Trump's campaign nor by his legal team), _charged_ individuals are either "registered Republican" (Robert Lynn and Ralph Thurman) or later “explained that he cast a v**e in the name of his deceased mother to reelect President Donald Trump.” (Bruce Bartman) ( As previously cited: https://www.forbes.com/sites/alisondurkee/2020/12/21/pennsylvania-man-charged-with-v**er-fraud-for-casting-b****t-for-trump-under-dead-mothers-name/?sh=6608bdcf59bf ).
- ~ - ~ - ~ - ~ - ~ - ~ - ~ - ~ - ~ - ~ - ~ - ~ - ~ - ~ - ~ - ~ - ~ - ~ - ~ - ~ - ~ - ~ - ~ - ~ - ~ - ~ - ~
So, what kind of person commits v***r f***d? Three is a rather small sample, but this sample would indicate that Republicans and people who v**e for Trump are the same kind of people as those who would commit v***r f***d. Does it fit the personality type? --
It kind of makes sense, because Trump himself suggested illegally v****g twice: "Trump suggests supporters illegally v**e twice to test mail-in v****g" ( https://www.cbsnews.com/news/trump-urges-nc-supporters-v**e-twice-test-mail-in-v****g/ ) and we know that Trump supporters are really committed to doing what he wants them to do. What a kidder, that Trump. It might destroy an e******n, but why should he care -- he's already in the seat of power. And what's _he_ got to lose -- as soon as he's out of power, he'll be prosecuted up the kazoo for the rest of his life, and with no p**********l immunity. Might as well mess with the e******n -- the _e******n_ that might _unseat_ him from the presidency -- he doesn't want one of those. --
Maybe he can mix it up enough that his lawyers will be able to exploit some cracks in the system in case he loses and needs to overturn it. I think that was his strategy, going into the Nov. 2020 e******n. The more doubt he can sow about the e******n, the more it benefits himself. The more vague and undefined the doubts, the better, because he wouldn't know exactly what he might need to exploit later -- the vague and undefined can be twisted to fit what he needs, later. The _precise_, though, would work against himself, because people can be held accountable for precise statements. That's why the Trump campaign and his legal team don't even try to name people who committed v***r f***d -- making precise statements is not what they do.
- ~ - ~ - ~ - ~ - ~ - ~ - ~ - ~ - ~ - ~ - ~ - ~ - ~ - ~ - ~ - ~ - ~ - ~ - ~ - ~ - ~ - ~ - ~ - ~ - ~ - ~ - ~
And now, about that statistical work:
In your post, it quotes this: "Ten-sigma jumps have a probability of 1 in 1023". That terminology and those numbers seem odd to me (I wonder whether they're just making something up without knowing what they're talking about). If it's a Normal Distribution then anything as far as ten sigmas from the mean would be much rarer than 1 in 1023. So I tried looking up similar numbers to see how they compare. At https://www.zmescience.com/science/what-5-sigma-means-0423423/ , I find "Around 0.1% of the population is 4 standard deviations from the mean" which means: 1 in 1,000 at 4 sigma. So at 10 sigma I would expect much less than even 1 in 1,000,000. Something more like 1 in 100,000,000 would seem more reasonable to me, to correspond to "10 sigma".
Well, okay, so maybe it's some other distribution, not the Normal Distribution. Or maybe when they say "sigma" they're NOT talking about Standard Deviation. Or, maybe, those statisticians you didn't name got their PhD's the same way Trump got his.
I mean, sure, it could be some other kind of calculation I don't know about, but I've learned to be suspicious -- there's so much bogus "information" circulating around these days.
"The unit of measurement usually given when talking about statistical significance is the standard deviation, expressed with the lowercase Greek letter sigma." ( https://scitechdaily.com/explaining-sigmas-role-in-statistical-significance/ )
(Maybe it's the new enhanced Republican-Sponsored Distribution ! Ha ha ha ha ha....) (Anonymity Shields up? Check.)
(A little later, I noticed this in your post: “1 in 10117 — or 14 Powerball wins in a row”. Who thinks 14 Powerball winds in a row has something to do with "1 in 10117"? Does that look realistic to anybody? It looks downright silly to me. I think 14 Powerball wins in a row would be _very_ unlikely: maybe the chance of it happening is something like 1 in a trillion. But "1 in 10117"?? Bah. Can you lasso one of those statisticians and make him show his calculation?)