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Apr 30, 2020 22:38:02   #
Navigator
 
GoCubs wrote:
Thanks for putting your fellow man at further risk by downplaying this deadly disease that intelligent people are taking seriously. How much money do you need when you are dead?


My fellow man is seriously at risk right now on lockdown. If you had the ability to read and then do research you would understand there is very little risk sending young people back to work (under 55) while continuing to sequester the elderly, the only portion of the population at true risk.

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Apr 30, 2020 23:09:19   #
Canuckus Deploracus Loc: North of the wall
 
Navigator wrote:
The reference below indicates the death rate is about 1%; more recent briefings indicate a lower rate even with what is most likely highly under detected numbers of infections. I don't have to remind you that China's numbers are incredibly unreliable. The 10-50 million number comes from two antibody surveys in California and one in NY that indicated between 5% and 15% of the population has already been infected and recovered from Covid-19; that would make between 16 and 50 million cases in the US. One other thing; the dead to recovered is the OPPOSITE of a useful number. The number recovered is a highly lagging number as people aren't reported as actually recovering for 6-8 weeks after they are infected while they usually die within 2 weeks. Right now there are about 3.3 million reported infections world wide, 233 thousand dead and about one million recovered. That leaves about 2.1 million in limbo. Even using China's distorted number of about 5% dead that means 2 million of those people will eventually recover and 100 thousand will die, giving a more realistic rate of recovery to dead of 10/1, not 3/2. We will not have really reliable numbers for about 3 months, maybe longer. Keeping the economy shut down for another three months would be much worse than sending a largely low risk (young) workforce back to work; in fact, IMHO it would be catastrophic

https://www.breitbart.com/politics/2020/04/13/study-coronavirus-fatality-rate-lower-than-expected-close-to-flus-0-1/
The reference below indicates the death rate is ab... (show quote)


Some feel that China's numbers are unreliable... That's understandable...

But the above mentioned extrapolation is based on faulty reasoning... The tests mentioned were performed on a small number of individuals from heavily infected areas... If a small town in Nebraska were tested and found to have had zero infections we certainly wouldn't take that to mean the country were virus free...

It I highly doubtful that 10-50 million have been infected... Certainly, if we follow the numbers in other nations we don't get anywhere near 0.1% for fatalities...

It's a good point concerning China's 5% number applying to the world total only adding up to another hundred thousand dead.. The problem is that the daily number of infections continues to rise... And we've already seen 230,000+ deaths... If anything, China's numbers seem to indicate that the sooner it is stopped, the better....

The ratio wasn't meant to imply that the death rate would be higher, but to show that the number of potential patients requiring aid will continue to grow faster than the medical system can keep up... There is something tipping point... Italy experienced it

I agree about the economy... Which I why I think it is so important to get a handle on the disease... Young people may not be as susceptible to death, but they are still susceptible to all of them side effects of having the infection....

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Apr 30, 2020 23:25:41   #
Boo_Boo Loc: Jellystone
 
Navigator wrote:
The reference below indicates the death rate is about 1%; more recent briefings indicate a lower rate even with what is most likely highly under detected numbers of infections. I don't have to remind you that China's numbers are incredibly unreliable. The 10-50 million number comes from two antibody surveys in California and one in NY that indicated between 5% and 15% of the population has already been infected and recovered from Covid-19; that would make between 16 and 50 million cases in the US. One other thing; the dead to recovered is the OPPOSITE of a useful number. The number recovered is a highly lagging number as people aren't reported as actually recovering for 6-8 weeks after they are infected while they usually die within 2 weeks. Right now there are about 3.3 million reported infections world wide, 233 thousand dead and about one million recovered. That leaves about 2.1 million in limbo. Even using China's distorted number of about 5% dead that means 2 million of those people will eventually recover and 100 thousand will die, giving a more realistic rate of recovery to dead of 10/1, not 3/2. We will not have really reliable numbers for about 3 months, maybe longer. Keeping the economy shut down for another three months would be much worse than sending a largely low risk (young) workforce back to work; in fact, IMHO it would be catastrophic

https://www.breitbart.com/politics/2020/04/13/study-coronavirus-fatality-rate-lower-than-expected-close-to-flus-0-1/
The reference below indicates the death rate is ab... (show quote)


Factor in the “R naught” at 5.7 for recovered, so 2 million recovered plus 5.7 for each and 5.7 for each of those contact...and so on, the contact goes way up....and most are unaware of contact or infection. Until the vast majority of people living in the US the ratio can not be pin pointed. My guess would be well over 100/1.

I agree, allow those who want to return to work (<60) restart their lives….their risk is no greater than getting season influenza. For those afraid to leave home, let them continue to hunker down....I just hope they have adequate savings to last for the next year or so when a proven vaccine becomes available. As for our frail population, they should take every precaution.

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Apr 30, 2020 23:39:14   #
Leave the gun. Take the cannoli. Loc: Pa
 
Mikeyavelli wrote:
Depends if you are a kommiecrat or a republican.
The government will still support a dead kommiecrat, as long as the dead kommiecrat votes.


But out fool - there’s an adult discussion going on here

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Apr 30, 2020 23:47:42   #
Canuckus Deploracus Loc: North of the wall
 
Leave the gun. Take the cannoli. wrote:
But out fool - there’s an adult discussion going on here


Adults can usually spell better

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Apr 30, 2020 23:57:19   #
Leave the gun. Take the cannoli. Loc: Pa
 
Sorry, didn’t have my glasses on

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May 1, 2020 00:58:00   #
truthiness
 
Rose42 wrote:
I am not a Trump supporter. This is all far bigger than him. Pay attention to whats going on.


Try reading from a neutral position and you will see that the statement actually agrees with you and was meant to.

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May 1, 2020 04:29:17   #
Singularity
 
Pennylynn wrote:
Factor in the “R naught” at 5.7 for recovered, so 2 million recovered plus 5.7 for each and 5.7 for each of those contact...and so on, the contact goes way up....and most are unaware of contact or infection. Until the vast majority of people living in the US the ratio can not be pin pointed. My guess would be well over 100/1.

I agree, allow those who want to return to work (<60) restart their lives….their risk is no greater than getting season influenza. For those afraid to leave home, let them continue to hunker down....I just hope they have adequate savings to last for the next year or so when a proven vaccine becomes available. As for our frail population, they should take every precaution.
Factor in the “R naught” at 5.7 for recovered, so ... (show quote)


How many people do you know have adequate savings, resources and support to continue to hunker down at home in adequately isolative fashion for 12 to 18 months? Its just a matter of time until an as yet asymptomatic Amazon driver swipes his nose with his thumb and forefinger before grabbing your package and ringing your doorbell.

Also, as I understand it, refusing to return to one's previous employment once it is again "available" is grounds for rejection for further unemployment benefits. And once the economy has "reopened" there will be no further need for "stimulus" payments. Except possibly for large corporations and industries and financial institutions.....

The decision to return to employment will not be a "choice" for most people in the US economy once that switch is flipped. Too bad there is no way for a human being to survive on this planet anymore without gainful employment in a robust economy. Humankind's frail population, children, elderly, infirm, has always and must continue perforce to depend upon the kindness of others, of strangers.

How do you think Blanche got so weird? It isn't just the Stanley Kowalski's of the world who can be brutish, comparatively.

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May 1, 2020 07:40:09   #
TexaCan Loc: Homeward Bound!
 
GoCubs wrote:
What do you need money for if you are dead?


When are you going to accept the fact that the majority of those that die are no longer dependent upon working for a living? I’m a lot more worried about children going hungry and not having a roof over their head, than the elderly, like me, that should have enough common sense to follow the guide lines for the most susceptible! You need to consider the needs of others instead of just your fear driven selfish needs!

https://www.latimes.com/science/story/2020-03-31/coronavirus-death-rate-estimates-show-risk-rising-sharply-with-age

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May 1, 2020 08:21:54   #
Mikeyavelli
 
Leave the gun. Take the cannoli. wrote:
But out fool - there’s an adult discussion going on here


Butt, don't you know your own?

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May 1, 2020 10:55:05   #
saltwind78
 
bestpal38 wrote:
In my lifetime, we have never shut down the country cause people get sick. I'm sorry people have died. I'm sorry people get sick. But why now??


The only time we ever had a pandemic in this country that I know about was the Spanish flu pandemic of 1918. We had nowhere near as much communication then as now. The pandemic had no social distancing, or stay at home ways to fight it. As a result of this, the Spanish flu had THREE SURGES of the pandemic, not one. Each surge or wave was more devastating than the others. The covid19 virus is in some ways more dangerous than the flu. The most important difference is that covid19 may take up to two weeks to become symptomatic. During this time, the virus may be more contagious. The infected, asymptomatic person may spread this disease to many others and not even know he is infected. Many medical authorities in the Presidents advisory group have warned us that this virus will return with a vengeance if businesses are open as usual. That may mean hundreds of thousands of cases, and thousands and thousands of more deaths. It will also mean that the nation will have to be shut down again, possibly for an even longer time. As I am writing this post the number oc cases is well over three million and one sixty thousand deaths.

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May 1, 2020 10:58:50   #
mgershowitz
 
Very clearly said albeit I’m sure you’ve likely also noticed people with opposing points of view don’t really want to hear it! 🙏🏻

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May 1, 2020 11:11:52   #
TexaCan Loc: Homeward Bound!
 
saltwind78 wrote:
The only time we ever had a pandemic in this country that I know about was the Spanish flu pandemic of 1918. We had nowhere near as much communication then as now. The pandemic had no social distancing, or stay at home ways to fight it. As a result of this, the Spanish flu had THREE SURGES of the pandemic, not one. Each surge or wave was more devastating than the others. The covid19 virus is in some ways more dangerous than the flu. The most important difference is that covid19 may take up to two weeks to become symptomatic. During this time, the virus may be more contagious. The infected, asymptomatic person may spread this disease to many others and not even know he is infected. Many medical authorities in the Presidents advisory group have warned us that this virus will return with a vengeance if businesses are open as usual. That may mean hundreds of thousands of cases, and thousands and thousands of more deaths. It will also mean that the nation will have to be shut down again, possibly for an even longer time. As I am writing this post the number oc cases is well over three million and one sixty thousand deaths.
The only time we ever had a pandemic in this count... (show quote)


https://www.cdc.gov/flu/pandemic-resources/1918-pandemic-h1n1.html

There is a significant difference in who the virus killed between these two. The Spanish Flu was devastating to children and 20 to 40 age group. The virus of today is affecting the elderly and those with underlying health issues. The article above explains further details.

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May 1, 2020 11:13:51   #
TexaCan Loc: Homeward Bound!
 
mgershowitz wrote:
Very clearly said albeit I’m sure you’ve likely also noticed people with opposing points of view don’t really want to hear it! 🙏🏻


Wrong!

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May 1, 2020 11:34:23   #
Leave the gun. Take the cannoli. Loc: Pa
 
TexaCan wrote:
Wrong!


So, you attack the facts when you don't like them?



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