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COVID-19 In The U.S.: Doomsday Numbers Just Don’t Add Up
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Mar 20, 2020 11:22:41   #
Boo_Boo Loc: Jellystone
 
Canuckus Deploracus wrote:
Nope... Feel free to shoot my dog... He's rabid and will bite... You've had thirty days warning that he's out and about... I've barricaded myself in my yard to protect myself from him... Many of my neighbors are doing the same... Definitely my bad... Should have been more careful... But he is out and you should take precautions...

Also, in response to this China has banned the sale of wild animals and is putting out new policies concerning open markets an waste disposal... Which will be nice... Although I'll miss being able to butcher my own chickens
Nope... Feel free to shoot my dog... He's rabid a... (show quote)


You apparently did not read the article. In 2017 China was told they would produce another pandemic and did nothing. Now, 2 years later you are defending their lack of corrective actions. Poppa taught me, an ounce of prevention is more effective than a pound of cure.

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Mar 20, 2020 11:39:46   #
Canuckus Deploracus Loc: North of the wall
 
Pennylynn wrote:
You apparently did not read the article. In 2017 China was told they would produce another pandemic and did nothing. Now, 2 years later you are defending their lack of corrective actions. Poppa taught me, an ounce of prevention is more effective than a pound of cure.


You misunderstood...

I'm not defending their idiocy...

I'm asking why the rest of the world was asleep at the wheel?

And plenty of nations have similar markets and population densities to China... India comes to mind... As do numerous South American and South East Asian nations...

China should have done more... Far more... Hopefully this will be a wake up call...

But surely if China was made aware, then the rest of the world was too...

Reply
Mar 20, 2020 11:54:20   #
Rose42
 
Canuckus Deploracus wrote:
Ummm.... Spanish flu and bubonic plague reesulted in the deaths of millions... The plague killed off actual percentages of the human race...

Something to be concerned about... You know... If you enjoy life and all...

I agree... No need for fear...


I’m not dismissing it. Thats simply how things work. Sanitation was pretty much none existent during the bubonic plague and primitive during the Spanish flu.

Reply
 
 
Mar 20, 2020 12:15:04   #
Boo_Boo Loc: Jellystone
 
Canuckus Deploracus wrote:
You misunderstood...

I'm not defending their idiocy...

I'm asking why the rest of the world was asleep at the wheel?

And plenty of nations have similar markets and population densities to China... India comes to mind... As do numerous South American and South East Asian nations...

China should have done more... Far more... Hopefully this will be a wake up call...

But surely if China was made aware, then the rest of the world was too...


There were conferences on pandemics and the results were published. Not many people read those types of publications. It was not until the media started a hourly Chicken Little that people began to panic. Many nations that had "wet markets" have banned slaughter of animals, such was the case in India in 2017 after the conference on pandemics. They focused on bovines, but are moving toward regulating fowls. There are exceptions, but China has become a "tourist traveling" nation, an estimate of 100 million Chinese, 6.2% of the worldwide outbound visitors, will board planes and ships each year.

For your consideration... what would happen if the US banned flights from China or other countries who reported an epidemic? Also, consider this...who should be responsible for shutting down flights, uninfected nation or the nations experiencing an epidemic? As I look into my crystal ball, I see a time when "health certificates" will be required for international flights.

Reply
Mar 20, 2020 12:31:03   #
SUZZY
 
Canuckus Deploracus wrote:
What stopped the spread in China

Seriously...

A complete lockdown of the nation...

No travel between cities or provinces...

No open businesses other than essential services...

Numerous checks anytime an individual left their apartment with a requirement that any individual showing any symptoms report to a quarantine center for testing...

1.4 billion people Selfquarantining on their homes for the past few months...

I missed where that was mentioned above...
What stopped the spread in China img src="https:/... (show quote)


Good points. We aren't doing those things, so outcomes won't be comparable. Time will tell.

Reply
Mar 20, 2020 12:48:17   #
nwtk2007 Loc: Texas
 
dtucker300 wrote:
They must be running these COVID-19 infection models on the same computer they use to predict Global Warming.

CURL: COVID-19 In The U.S.: Doomsday Numbers Just Don’t Add Up
By Joseph Curl

Last week, when people in America used to leave their homes (remember that?), I was finishing up a big household project and stopped off at Lowe’s (every project I do requires at least 17 trips to the hardware store).


I walked in, wearing some scuzzy jeans and a paint-splotched CNN shirt (which I only wear for painting), grabbed a cart and then stopped to pick up a sanitizing wipe. I swabbed off my filthy hands and the cart handle (following a stern directive from my wife), and was getting ready to pick up my supplies.

Just then a realllly filthy workman rolled in. He saw me swabbing away, hesitated, then walked over and grabbed his own wipe. Now, this guy probably never even knew there was a sanitation station in the hardware store and certainly didn’t look like the kind of guy who’d ever used one before, but there he was — there we were.

And therein lies my point (I knew I’d get to one eventually): This ain’t China. We don’t eat bats. And even a grubby day laborer and a guy in a shirt Jackson Pollock might’ve worn will take a moment to clean their hands (and make sure, in this dangerous day, that he doesn’t pick up — or put down — any germs).

So for me, the numbers being bandied around just don’t make any sense.


The latest coronavirus, COVID-19, is bad, but 150 million Americans infected? That is what Congress’ in-house doctor told Capitol Hill staffers at a close-door meeting last week.

A recent projection from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) had even more alarming numbers. Worst-case scenario, COVID-19 could infect between up to 214 million people over a period of more than a year — and kill as many as 1.7 million Americans.


The New York Times used an even more dire model: 2.1 million dead.

Let’s back up a second. China has a population of 1,437,722,468 as of Tuesday, based on Worldometer elaboration of the latest United Nations data.


COVID-19 was born there, with the first case being diagnosed on Dec. 1.

On Tuesday, there were 81,054 confirmed cases of the virus, according to Johns Hopkins Center for Systems Science and Engineering. Of those, 68,798 recovered, while 3,230 people died, at least according to statistics released by China (figures that could well be cooked by officials there). The remainder were still active cases.

But if the numbers are accurate, that means the infection rate in China was just .006%. How, then, are the “experts” forecasting that well more than 50% of the 320 million people in America — where people already wash their hands incessantly and use Purell nonstop — will be infected?

Again, look at the numbers. The virus pounded China from December 1 through the third week of February — more than 10 weeks in all — before it leveled off (if you can believe the communist leaders’ claim).

In the Hubei province, just more than 11% of the nearly 60 million residents were infected. And that was ground zero.

The spread of COVID-19 in China began leveling off a week before February ended. It topped 80,000 on March 1, but 14 days later it was still less than 81,000. The curve had flattened.

But let’s go to Dr. Anthony Fauci, the director of the National Institutes of Health’s National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, for the final word.

“I think we really need to be careful with those kinds of predictions, because that’s based on a model,” Dr. Fauci said at a congressional hearing last week of the projection that 150 million will be infected in the U.S. “All models are as good as the assumptions that you put into the model … it’s unpredictable. So, testing now is not going to tell me how many cases you are going to have. What will tell you what you’re going to have will be how you respond to it with containment and mitigation,” he said.

Dr. Fauci also said the breathless media tends to report on the higher end of ranges predicted by models. “Remember the model during the Ebola outbreak said you could have as many as a million [cases]. We didn’t have a million,” he said.

No, instead, two people died in the United States from Ebola in 2014. Both contracted the disease overseas. Two more contracted the disease in the United States — and both survived.

On Tuesday, the United States had 5,702 confirmed cases of COVID-19, with 94 deaths (48 of those in Washington state alone). The numbers will undoubtedly go up — likely by a lot. But President Trump has taken swift action to cut off the influx of travelers from countries teeming with infection and on Monday laid out stringent new guidelines to halt the upward curve.

Americans appear to be taking the directives seriously. So, time will tell if it all works.

But 150 million infected? A million dead? Right now, those numbers just don’t seem to add up.

Let’s hope they never do.
They must be running these COVID-19 infection mode... (show quote)


It's astounding how over the top the "experts" are in their predictions of death and disease. I guess it's no big deal to admit later that they thought it would be worse than it is to later admit they should have known if the numbers turned out to be less. I, quite frankly, don't understand how they even think they can make such predictions in such a cavalier manner and not know the effect it will have on people.

The media: The sky is falling!!!!!!

These experts: Yes, and it will be the entire sky, not just some of it.

Reply
Mar 20, 2020 14:20:11   #
dtucker300 Loc: Vista, CA
 
Gatsby wrote:
MATH CHECK

If there were 81,054 confirmed cases of the virus in Hubei province,

and If there are 60 million people living in Hubei province; then the infection rate is 0.135%, not 11%.

By the way: 11% of 60 million is 6.6 million


They said infected, not symptomatic.

Reply
 
 
Mar 20, 2020 15:03:29   #
dtucker300 Loc: Vista, CA
 
Canuckus Deploracus wrote:
Right... And migrated to Europe and North America...

Still getting new cases over here... But most are from outside of the country...


Latest report, no new cases yesterday in China. I'm skeptical of everything I hear from the media.

Reply
Mar 20, 2020 15:09:08   #
dtucker300 Loc: Vista, CA
 
nwtk2007 wrote:
It's astounding how over the top the "experts" are in their predictions of death and disease. I guess it's no big deal to admit later that they thought it would be worse than it is to later admit they should have known if the numbers turned out to be less. I, quite frankly, don't understand how they even think they can make such predictions in such a cavalier manner and not know the effect it will have on people.

The media: The sky is falling!!!!!!

These experts: Yes, and it will be the entire sky, not just some of it.
It's astounding how over the top the "experts... (show quote)


They overstate the numbers because when it doesn't come about, they can claim they did what was needed to stop the incoming tide. On the other hand, if it gets really bad they can say "We warned you!"

Reply
Mar 20, 2020 15:21:18   #
nwtk2007 Loc: Texas
 
dtucker300 wrote:
They overstate the numbers because when it doesn't come about, they can claim they did what was needed to stop the incoming tide. On the other hand, if it gets really bad they can say "We warned you!"


There ya go!!

Reply
Mar 20, 2020 15:55:52   #
woodguru
 
dtucker300 wrote:

Let’s back up a second. China has a population of 1,437,722,468 as of Tuesday, based on Worldometer elaboration of the latest United Nations data.
COVID-19 was born there, with the first case being diagnosed on Dec. 1.


Let's make this clear, China isn't like the US, when they decided they had a problem they locked it down, late but it was locked down like China can and the US won't...

They went through apartment complexes and homes taking temperatures. If you had one you were taken away to a fever clinic where other things were ruled out, then you waited for a resulton a coronavirus test. If it was positive you were stuck for the duration and your family was checked and watched. Their curve has been flattened, but they used extreme measures.

Then in china as another city reported it's first outbreaks they were all over it, isolation, quarantining and testing of anyone those had come in contact with. This city had it contained in a short period.

The delays on getting on this with unlimited testing put us back by two months, we still have bottlenecks from CDC preventing other labs from contributing to our daily testing capability. The CDC seems set on limiting the bulk of the testing to it's major labs so as to control the information, and the delay is going to cause a massive growth of daily new cases that the deaths are felt a few weeks later. New York was up 2000 cases in a day and blew right through 10,000 cases that the full death toll isn't known for another few weeks

Reply
 
 
Mar 20, 2020 15:58:08   #
Rose42
 
woodguru wrote:
Let's make this clear, China isn't like the US, when they decided they had a problem they locked it down, late but it was locked down like China can and the US won't...

They went through apartment complexes and homes taking temperatures. If you had one you were taken away to a fever clinic where other things were ruled out, then you waited for a resulton a coronavirus test. If it was positive you were stuck for the duration and your family was checked and watched. Their curve has been flattened, but they used extreme measures.

Then in china as another city reported it's first outbreaks they were all over it, isolation, quarantining and testing of anyone those had come in contact with. This city had it contained in a short period.

The delays on getting on this with unlimited testing put us back by two months, we still have bottlenecks from CDC preventing other labs from contributing to our daily testing capability. The CDC seems set on limiting the bulk of the testing to it's major labs so as to control the information, and the delay is going to cause a massive growth of daily new cases that the deaths are felt a few weeks later. New York was up 2000 cases in a day and blew right through 10,000 cases that the full death toll isn't known for another few weeks
Let's make this clear, China isn't like the US, wh... (show quote)


Only a fool trusts information coming from China.

You have no idea whats really going on anymore than anyone else.

Reply
Mar 20, 2020 16:48:08   #
bilordinary Loc: SW Washington
 
woodguru wrote:
Let's make this clear, China isn't like the US, when they decided they had a problem they locked it down, late but it was locked down like China can and the US won't...

They went through apartment complexes and homes taking temperatures. If you had one you were taken away to a fever clinic where other things were ruled out, then you waited for a resulton a coronavirus test. If it was positive you were stuck for the duration and your family was checked and watched. Their curve has been flattened, but they used extreme measures.

Then in china as another city reported it's first outbreaks they were all over it, isolation, quarantining and testing of anyone those had come in contact with. This city had it contained in a short period.

The delays on getting on this with unlimited testing put us back by two months, we still have bottlenecks from CDC preventing other labs from contributing to our daily testing capability. The CDC seems set on limiting the bulk of the testing to it's major labs so as to control the information, and the delay is going to cause a massive growth of daily new cases that the deaths are felt a few weeks later. New York was up 2000 cases in a day and blew right through 10,000 cases that the full death toll isn't known for another few weeks
Let's make this clear, China isn't like the US, wh... (show quote)


Dumbing down is more effective on some people.

Reply
Mar 20, 2020 16:48:16   #
Lt. Rob Polans ret.
 
dtucker300 wrote:
They must be running these COVID-19 infection models on the same computer they use to predict Global Warming.

CURL: COVID-19 In The U.S.: Doomsday Numbers Just Don’t Add Up
By Joseph Curl

Last week, when people in America used to leave their homes (remember that?), I was finishing up a big household project and stopped off at Lowe’s (every project I do requires at least 17 trips to the hardware store).


I walked in, wearing some scuzzy jeans and a paint-splotched CNN shirt (which I only wear for painting), grabbed a cart and then stopped to pick up a sanitizing wipe. I swabbed off my filthy hands and the cart handle (following a stern directive from my wife), and was getting ready to pick up my supplies.

Just then a realllly filthy workman rolled in. He saw me swabbing away, hesitated, then walked over and grabbed his own wipe. Now, this guy probably never even knew there was a sanitation station in the hardware store and certainly didn’t look like the kind of guy who’d ever used one before, but there he was — there we were.

And therein lies my point (I knew I’d get to one eventually): This ain’t China. We don’t eat bats. And even a grubby day laborer and a guy in a shirt Jackson Pollock might’ve worn will take a moment to clean their hands (and make sure, in this dangerous day, that he doesn’t pick up — or put down — any germs).

So for me, the numbers being bandied around just don’t make any sense.


The latest coronavirus, COVID-19, is bad, but 150 million Americans infected? That is what Congress’ in-house doctor told Capitol Hill staffers at a close-door meeting last week.

A recent projection from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) had even more alarming numbers. Worst-case scenario, COVID-19 could infect between up to 214 million people over a period of more than a year — and kill as many as 1.7 million Americans.


The New York Times used an even more dire model: 2.1 million dead.

Let’s back up a second. China has a population of 1,437,722,468 as of Tuesday, based on Worldometer elaboration of the latest United Nations data.


COVID-19 was born there, with the first case being diagnosed on Dec. 1.

On Tuesday, there were 81,054 confirmed cases of the virus, according to Johns Hopkins Center for Systems Science and Engineering. Of those, 68,798 recovered, while 3,230 people died, at least according to statistics released by China (figures that could well be cooked by officials there). The remainder were still active cases.

But if the numbers are accurate, that means the infection rate in China was just .006%. How, then, are the “experts” forecasting that well more than 50% of the 320 million people in America — where people already wash their hands incessantly and use Purell nonstop — will be infected?

Again, look at the numbers. The virus pounded China from December 1 through the third week of February — more than 10 weeks in all — before it leveled off (if you can believe the communist leaders’ claim).

In the Hubei province, just more than 11% of the nearly 60 million residents were infected. And that was ground zero.

The spread of COVID-19 in China began leveling off a week before February ended. It topped 80,000 on March 1, but 14 days later it was still less than 81,000. The curve had flattened.

But let’s go to Dr. Anthony Fauci, the director of the National Institutes of Health’s National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, for the final word.

“I think we really need to be careful with those kinds of predictions, because that’s based on a model,” Dr. Fauci said at a congressional hearing last week of the projection that 150 million will be infected in the U.S. “All models are as good as the assumptions that you put into the model … it’s unpredictable. So, testing now is not going to tell me how many cases you are going to have. What will tell you what you’re going to have will be how you respond to it with containment and mitigation,” he said.

Dr. Fauci also said the breathless media tends to report on the higher end of ranges predicted by models. “Remember the model during the Ebola outbreak said you could have as many as a million [cases]. We didn’t have a million,” he said.

No, instead, two people died in the United States from Ebola in 2014. Both contracted the disease overseas. Two more contracted the disease in the United States — and both survived.

On Tuesday, the United States had 5,702 confirmed cases of COVID-19, with 94 deaths (48 of those in Washington state alone). The numbers will undoubtedly go up — likely by a lot. But President Trump has taken swift action to cut off the influx of travelers from countries teeming with infection and on Monday laid out stringent new guidelines to halt the upward curve.

Americans appear to be taking the directives seriously. So, time will tell if it all works.

But 150 million infected? A million dead? Right now, those numbers just don’t seem to add up.

Let’s hope they never do.
They must be running these COVID-19 infection mode... (show quote)


Anything closed door I don't believe. If it's as "little" as a 1 million difference take the higher one, I usually err on the side of caution. I'd guess it's more like 500,000 dead and infected total. No Million or more. Remember, cocoa and Vitamin C I think water soluble (hell I use Airborne) are good.

Reply
Mar 20, 2020 16:55:42   #
Lt. Rob Polans ret.
 
Canuckus Deploracus wrote:
What stopped the spread in China

Seriously...

A complete lockdown of the nation...

No travel between cities or provinces...

No open businesses other than essential services...

Numerous checks anytime an individual left their apartment with a requirement that any individual showing any symptoms report to a quarantine center for testing...

1.4 billion people Selfquarantining on their homes for the past few months...

I missed where that was mentioned above...
What stopped the spread in China img src="https:/... (show quote)


Around me most are self-quarantining then if anyone needs anything, one of us makes a run we have a neighborhood computer connection. China no 'reported' deaths last 2 days to me that means nothing. If an objective news source said that okay, but China won't let them in.



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