lindajoy wrote:
Sorry straight up but I was curious with your figures so I went looking to see for myself..
lindajoy wrote:
I couldn't find anything that suggested such, would you mind sharing your numbers with us??
Ooh... "crouching tiger", wait quiety for me to make a mistake... I see... ;)
Well, here's the link...
https://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/hurrarchive.aspAnd here's the thing...
I was so excited to find the data in tabular format so I could just copy/paste into a spreadsheet and get it to spit out numbers that I failed to verify a second source. Looking at the web site, I don't actually see where it says it gets the data. So, I went looking for international records and for some reason I am having a hard time trying to find any... other than what I used. NOAA and NASA only seem focused on storms that hit the U.S.
Anyway... I gotta put a time limit on how much time I can spend on this, so I'm just going to say my numbers are as good as the source I gave you, so you can accept them or dispute them, but I will say the bigger argument I was trying to make with those numbers is that you can't limit the scope of your study to only part of the problem if you want to see the big picture. Meanwhile, I'll probably look further for sources of data on storms world wide.
Oh, one more thing to point out... it's not just the frequency of the storms, it's the size. Irma is the largest hurricane ever recorded anywhere in the world at any point in history. The storms themselves are getting bigger. Here's the news on that...
http://www.npr.org/sections/thetwo-way/2017/09/12/550188154/hurricane-irma-blasts-into-the-record-books-with-lasting-intensityExactly... You can see what I'm talking about just in this figure alone... The rise in activity from about 1993 isn't as pronounced along the red line representing the hurricanes that hit the U.S. as it is along the green line representing the observations that didn't need to be adjusted, taken in Atlantic, Carribean and Gulf of Mexico. Imagine the difference if you included the Pacific and Indian oceans?
So, thanks for that data... It proved my point nicely.
lindajoy wrote:
According to the total annual ACE Index, cyclone intensity has risen noticeably over the past 20 years, and six of the 10 most active years since 1950 have occurred since the mid-1990s (see Figure 2). Relatively high levels of cyclone activity were also seen during the 1950s and 1960s.
There are always going to be spikes, the thing to note is if the spikes are getting bigger... and this chart says they are... 1995, 2005 and 2006 all had a higher energy index than ANY of the 50's or 60's. There's a lot more too global warming than CO2 levels. There is also a host of natural influences... ya know... the one's deniers always seem to think excuses us from any responsibility. Some of these influences are cyclic. So it makes sense that you would see energy spikes, throughout history, but are they getting bigger?
lindajoy wrote:
The PDI (see Figure 3) shows fluctuating cyclone intensity for most of the mid- to late 20th century, followed by a noticeable increase since 1995 (similar to the ACE Index). These trends are shown with associated variations in sea surface temperature in the tropical North Atlantic for comparison (see Figure 3).
Despite the apparent increases in tropical cyclone activity in recent years, shown in Figures 2 and 3, changes in observation methods over time make it difficult to know whether tropical storm activity has actually shown an increase over time.
br The PDI (see Figure 3) shows fluctuating cyclo... (
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So are you saying the numbers aren't perfect? Is that what you're waiting for?
Here's the lesson
I'm learning here...
Global climate is a highly dynamic system affected by a tremendous number of influences and what data we seem to have about storms appears to be limited to specific regions and observation methods. So exact numbers would seem to be a pretty tall order, which I suppose makes it a great argument for deniers. For people who are less concerned about winning arguments and more concerned about the future of our children the question of numbers becomes a matter of risk assessment, something insurance companies are familiar with. So we deal with ranges and ratios, not exact numbers.
And we look at everything.
Not just hurricanes in one part of the world.