jack sequim wa Loc: Blanchard, Idaho

Another example of the weak Administration run by devious Obama, a destraction effort to mask the depth of 7 years "t***sformation of America " or as Ben Carson has said "how to destroy America ". And now Obama's effort to keep the l*****t on Kool Aid.

Another Phony Payroll Jobs Number

Paul Craig Roberts

The Bureau of Labor Statistics announced today that the US economy created 271,000 jobs in October, a number substantially in excess of the expected 175,000 to 190,000 jobs. The unexpected job gain has dropped the unemployment rate to 5 percent. These two numbers will be the focus of the financial media presstitutes.

What is wrong with these numbers? Just about everything. First of all, 145,000 of the jobs, or 54%, are jobs arbitrarily added to the number by the birth-death model. The birth-death model provides an estimate of the net amount of unreported jobs lost to business closings and the unreported jobs created by new business openings. The model is based on a normally functioning economy unlike the one of the past seven years and thus overestimates the number of jobs from new business and underestimates the losses from closures. If we eliminate the birth-death model’s contribution, new jobs were 126,000.

Next, consider who got the 271,000 reported jobs. According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, all of the new jobs plus some—378,000—went to those 55 years of age and older. However, males in the prime working age, 25 to 54 years of age, lost 119,000 jobs. What seems to have happened is that full time jobs were replaced with part time jobs for retirees. Multiple job holders increased by 109,000 in October, an indication that people who lost full time jobs had to take two or more part time jobs in order to make ends meet.

Now assume the 271,000 reported jobs in October is the real number, and not 126,000 or less, where are those jobs? According to the BLS not a single one is in manufacturing. The jobs are in personal services, mainly lowly paid jobs such as retail clerks, ambulatory health care service jobs, temporary help, and waitresses and bartenders.

For example, the BLS reports 44,000 new retail trade jobs, a questionable number in light of sluggish real retail sales. Possibly what is happening is that stores are turning a smaller number of full time jobs into a larger number of part time jobs in order to avoid benefit costs associated with full time workers.

The new reported jobs are essentially Third World type of jobs that do not produce sufficient income to form a household and do not produce exportable goods and services to help to bring down the large US trade deficit resulting from jobs offshoring.

The problem with the 5% unemployment rate is that it does not include any discouraged workers. When discouraged workers—those who have ceased looking for a job because there are no jobs to be found—are included the unemployment rate is about 23%.

Another problem with the 5% number is that it suggests full employment. Yet the labor force participation rate remains at a low point. Normally during a real economic recovery, people enter the labor force and the participation rate rises.

The bullion banks acting as agents of the Federal Reserve used the phony jobs number to launch another attack on gold and silver bullion, dumping uncovered shorts into the futures market. The strong jobs number provides cover for the naked shorts, because it implies an interest rate hike and movement out of bullion into interest bearing assets.

If the US economy were actually in economic recovery, would half of the 25-year-old population be living with parents? The real job situation is so poor that young people are unable to form households. See;

http://www.paulcraigroberts.org/2015/10/29/us-on-road-to-third-world-paul-craig-roberts/

son of witless

This is very good. The left wingers have to be kept on the kool ade. They are the only ones who believe anything out of this administration.

jack sequim wa Loc: Blanchard, Idaho

I'm seeing many on this forum defending Obama's econony. Not a single one understands the mechanics of Wallstreet, micro and macro economics of how America's engine work's, and totally oblivious of the crumbling economies of Europe, China, Japan to name a few.

Kool Aid = supernatural deception

son of witless

I have said it many times. Obama has only one great talent. He gets stupid people to v**e for him.

Anigav6969

Wel, Paul Craig Roberts said it ....it must be true !.....talk about kool aid..

The BLS has been measuring employment numbers the same way for decades...only you guys would take good news and make it bad.....are you saying your President changed the numbers ??....do you have evidence of this ?

jack sequim wa Loc: Blanchard, Idaho

Hello Anigav, no I wouldn't say the president himself altered the numbers. His administration did! You stated the "BLS has been measuring numbers the same way for decades" that would be incorrect. The t***h is nearly all presidents administrations have changed the way BLS measures since Nixon. Clinton, Bush's, and now Obama.

Here is one recent change that is positive, but...the change actually was never implemented http://usatoday30.usatoday.com/news/nation/2010-12-28-1Ajobless28_ST_N.htm

The t***h. http://www.shadowstats.com/

Here is a major change in 1994
http://www.bls.gov/opub/mlr/1995/10/art3full.pdf


Harvard's position on the BLS

http://harvardpolitics.com/united-states/the-failures-of-the-unemployment-rate/

Anigav6969

Hey Jack, here is what you said :
"Another example of the weak Administration run by devious Obama, a destraction effort to mask the depth of 7 years "t***sformation of America " or as Ben Carson has said "how to destroy America ". And now Obama's effort to keep the l*****t on Kool Aid."

This sounds very much like you are blaming the " devious" Obama...and his administration for cooking the numbers.....show me how they made the BLS cook the numbers......also, don't you think the employment numbers are better than 7 years ago ?...we were bleeding hundreds of thousands of jobs a month

son of witless

Once again you take a short time period and compare it to a long time period. The end of the Bush Administration was a severe downturn. That was about a 2 year period. The Bush Administration put into place stimulus and other emergency measures followed up by the Obama Administration mostly to stabilize the banks.

Normally following such a severe downturn the snap back would have been dramatic. The second year of the Obama Administration should have been a barn burner. Where we are now after 7 years of hell is where a good President would have had us in his second year.

This 7 year recovery is pathetic and it was on purpose so that Obama could get his Marxist agenda enacted. 7 years of under employed 20 somethings. There is currently a mild baby boom. It was delayed by the bad Obama economy.

It is nice to see so many unaborted babies being baptized.

Anigav6969

Marxist agenda ??...He only has a year left...are you gonna make it ??

Ahh yes, the good ole days of GWB....no thank you

jack sequim wa Loc: Blanchard, Idaho

Agreed during the melt down we were bleeding jobs. Other than jobs increases in goverment, what jobs has obama increased? It's factual that jobs added are part time jobs, with highest percentage of full time going to health care. Also if your look up employment and GDP revised numbers, these revisions come out several months after the initial reports and receive little to no media attention. In fact the revisions usually are reported just after the following quarter of new numbers, hmmmm never before the last 5 +/- years have the revised numbers come so many months removed. When reviewing the revisions GDP has been revised by as much as a full percentage point (that's hugh) and jobs numbers on average reduced by a third. This is the cooking the books part. Have you noticed that Wallstreet no longer reacts to the job or GDP reports? Again a first ever anomaly the last 5+/-years. Before Wallstreet would have gone bananas, but the reason they don't is based on public confidence and private investory keeping calm to Wallstreet's non reactive positions.
Every administration has "cooked the books" but never, never to the higher degree as this one.
Wallstreet received over 3.5 trillion of QE not mainstream in order to prop it up from collapsing and in the process made the rich, richer. Also the fed on several occasions in the last minutes of trading in order to prevent a melt down.

Back to employment. ...the employment participation rate is in the 60%+/- and declining the last 5 years according to the BLS. That's how we know over 90 million people are out of work, putting the actual unemploymentioned over 15% and discouraged over 22%.
It just math using the BLS's own numbers.
Take population -retired, - underage -participation rate = unemployment.
Yet they report 5% which using their own math is manipulated reporting.
Here is the BLS participation rate from their own site. You will see the drastic decline over the last five years, yet listen to obama and the administration press releases and speeches which talk about "hugh" increases.

son of witless

If you wish we can compare any direct statistics for Bush verses Obama. Only if you compare Obama's best years against Bush's worst years does your man win.

And yes Marxist agenda. What do Marxists do? Glad you asked. The Central Government controls as much of the citizens lives as possible. Obama has gained control over health care, over college funding, etc. Now what does that mean?

It means he can tell you how to eat, sleep, and whether you can own a gun, because everything impacts Health costs. It means he can extend his Marxist agenda to Universities even more than now. Control the money and you control everything.

Anigav6969

That's not how it works....you don't get to choose the best years....the economic demise was on the watch of GWB.....and you are in the minority...very few want to have anything to do with Bush...that's why his brother is not doing very well....why isn't Jeb asking GWB to campaign with him ???..some how you see what nobody else sees:

As for the Marxist agenda...you sound completely paranoid....is he controlling you eating habits ?....your sleeping habits ??...can you buy a gun ??....what are you talking about ??

Anigav6969

The 90 million people out of work has been debunked so many times.......from politifact :

Our ruling

Trump said, "We have 93 million people out of work. They look for jobs, they give up, and all of a sudden, statistically, they're considered employed."

That figure, boosted by Trump’s description, represents a basic misunderstanding of the labor market.

Once you strip out full-time students, senior citizens, the disabled, and those who have chosen not to work to take care of their children, a more reasonable estimate of "out of work" Americans is somewhere in the neighborhood of 21 million, or less than a quarter of Trump’s figure. Meanwhile, he is flat wrong that the government reclassifies discouraged workers as "employed."

We rate his claim False.

And you claimed that the Obama administration has " cooked the books"....the BLS is measuring the unemployment numbers the same now as they did under GWB

jack sequim wa Loc: Blanchard, Idaho

Political fact is in itself debunked for pushing false info and lies, much like the resent manufactured lie regarding Ben Carson

Just a f,,y.I the housing bubble was Clinton policy, Bush had gone to Congress four times requesting revisions (dem controlled congress) and ignored. Not defending Bushes poor decisions when things imploded, but keeping the facts straight. Another fact was the internet bubble burst, Bush's fault. Nope!!
The fall was not bush's fault, but his policies just like obama contributed to further decline of our economy.


http://www.matchdoctor.com/blog_141905/Factcheck_org_--_A_Fraudulent_Fact_Check_Site_Funded_By_Biased_Political_Group.html

http://ivn.us/2014/07/11/how-reliable-are-fact-check-sources/

The best t***hs are ones we can verify ourselves with evidence, to trust any media (any media) is to fall victim to bias and agendas

As for 90ish million out of work, go to the BLS site, like in my link, have a calculator handy and do the math. It's all right there on the BLS site for anyone to do there own fact checking. Anyone claiming to debunk the higher employment number's, has not done the math for themselves.

son of witless

I certainly am no more paranoid about Obama than you are about W. You say the economic demise was on the watch of GWB. Then everything that happens during a Presidency is that guy's fault!!!!! We should consistently apply principles, , , RIGHT?

So the dot com bubble that blew up at the end of William Clinton's term was his fault? Of course Bush caused the Hurricane that drowned New Orleans. That means that the BP oil spill was caused by Obama. Certainly his inability to work with the States to manage the disaster was all him.

As far as Jeb boy, he is just a incredibly boring talker. Also he took too much time off between gigs. Nobody remembers how well a job he did ruling Florida. Add in his Rino tendencies and he is really doing well for who he is.

I can still buy a gun because of the NRA. The left wing medical establishment would love to ban them as a health risk. They are in the Obama camp. I lump them all together. Just like they tried and failed to bankrupt the gun manufacturers with liability claims.

No your side lead by the Obama is constantly trying to screw me personally and America in general.