trucksterbud wrote:
I'm not arguing here Arch, just presenting info from informed sources.
What It Will Take for the Wind and Solar Industries to Collapse
https://www.americanthinker.com/articles/2019/07/what_it_will_take_for_the_wind_and_solar_industries_to_collapse.html(From educated sources.) Excerpt from the article - :
"The bankruptcy of PG&E, the largest California utility, has created some cracks in the façade. A bankruptcy judge has ruled that cancelation of up to $40 billion in long-term energy contracts is a possibility. These contracts are not essential or needed to preserve the supply of electricity because they are mostly for wind or solar electricity supply that varies with the weather and can't be counted on. As a consequence, there has to exist and does exist the necessary infrastructure to supply the electricity needs without the wind or solar energy.""For technical reasons, an electrical grid cannot run on wind or solar much more than 50% of the time. The fleet of backup plants must be online to provide adjustable output to compensate for erratic variations in wind or solar. Output has to be ramped up to meet early-evening peaks. Wind suffers from a cube power law, meaning that if the wind drops by 10%, the electricity drops by 30%. Solar suffers from too much generation in the middle of the day and not enough generation to meet early evening peaks in consumption.""There is a movement to include batteries with solar installations to move excessive middle-of-the-day generation to the early evening. This is a palliative to extend the time before solar runs into the curtailment wall. The batteries are extremely expensive and wear out every five years."Neither wind nor solar is competitive without subsidies. If the subsidies and quotas were taken away, no wind or solar operation outside very special situations would be built. Further, the existing installations would continue only as long as their contracts are honored and they are cash flow–positive. In order to be competitive, without subsidies, wind or solar would have to supply electricity for less than $20 per megawatt-hour, the marginal cost of generating the electricity with gas or coal. Only the marginal cost counts, because the f****l f**l plants have to be there whether or not there is wind or solar. Without the subsidies, quotas, and 25-year contracts, wind or solar would have to get about $100 per megawatt-hour for its electricity. That gap, between $100 and $20, is a wide chasm only bridged by subsidies and mandates.Not saying your son doesn't know what he's talking about, perhaps for his experience he is on the money. But, did he take into consideraton the financial end of it. The investment end of it..?? Slow a wind turbine down, let it break down a couple of times, .... and bingo, you have the 15 to 18 year forecast. Ask your son what is the major breakdown...?? (Bearings are listed as 76% of the time, and being the hardest and most expensive fix)
More on wind turbines. (Straight from the horses mouth)
https://blog.arcadiapower.com/15-important-facts-statistics-wind-turbines/So, in t***h, what it will take for solar and wind power facilities to collapse is to take away the subsidies and mandates. Straight from the horses mouth.
A wave out to you neighbor. I used to live in Amarillo. Have been in Albuquerque area for about 38 years now.
I'm not arguing here Arch, just presenting info fr... (
show quote)
You'll get no argument from me, or my son on this one. I was going back and forth with, I believe, permafrost about this, and I called my son, and asked him the minimum payback time on one of those things. He laughed, and said a perfect one in a high paying area, maybe 10 years.
He didn't at first, but now he's sees the money spent, money wasted, subsidy cost, and thinks it's all BS. He wants out now. He's working on something else that concerns me some, but he's his own man and knows what he's doing. I'm just a dad here.
A major breakdown? Gee, that's a tough one! My son started his career in "major components" repair. He spent 3 years traveling all over changing bearings, gearboxes, generators, and everything in between. He's told me all kinds of stories about those things, and things he's had to do with them.
Had to think a minute, but one that I remember him telling me about was one with a shelled gearbox down by Odessa that was locked up. I don't remember all of the details, but the gearbox was locked up, and they spent a week trying to get the thing to turn enough to get the blades positioned so the crane could pull them off. When all was said and done, he had to wrap the gearbox with chains to hold it together so the crain could pull it. It weighs 40,000 lbs. Scary stuff to me!
If you figure the costs, that 1 megawatt tower is a complete loser. How much per hour for crane rental, salaries, per diem, tools, parts?
Hell, your just down the street from me! I have kinfolk in Albuquerque, and Belen. The Albuquerque ones don't like me because I'm not a l*****t, but the Belen ones are cool.
You must be like a red, festering boil on the butt cheek of that blue beast you live in!
Keep on festering brother!