permafrost wrote:
Tons of jobs, stock market out of its mind making money, wages up near 2%, how could I have any issue with the currect economy..
Well it all feels wrong.. nothing changed in my neck of the woods.. Same as we were in 2010.. why do I lay awake and worry about my grand kids and others making a living?
Looking for workers, need people. trained people.. money invested in updating many of the small business which make up the arrowhead of Minnesota..
Iron mining back to booming. but much opposition to nearly approved copper/nickel mining done by foreign companies..
so lets ask some experts, who have studied this boring stuff for a life time..
John Brazier is one of those who find economics so interesting he makes a living teaching it..
part of an article by him which he did not link, so all I have is the part I post..
>>>>>
I’m just going to focus on one area: the economy. Remember, despite Republican defiance and int***sigence, Obama hauled the US economy out of a massive recession and did it more quickly than any other country in the world (even though one might question some of his actions).
Trump, in the space of around 6 months - because he knows nothing about economics - has done the following:
Given a huge tax break to the wealthy and the corporations. This is meant to revitalize the economy. Unfortunately, the corporates don’t use it for investment but for share buy-backs, which artificially raises their stock value and thus raises the execs’ bonuses. The wealthy simply invest in the stock market, which further artificially raises the whole stock market value. The small amount that does make it to real business investment will actually do little because (a) the USA is near full employment: you can’t find people to fill the jobs, which causes wage inflation - the economy is overheating, and (b) we’re late in the business cycle: a slowdown is coming.
With the tax break, he has also declared a trade war with the whole of the world. These together significantly limits the government’s income, leading to more borrowing. In addition, Trump now has to borrow more so that he can subsidize soya farmers (for example) to keep them on-side during the war. The trade war will also directly hit US businesses, reducing their sales and profits, so slowing the economy down.
Trump is trying to stop the Fed from raising interest rates - which they must to (a) contain inflation, and (b) have enough ammunition in the interest rate to cut rates when the coming global recession will hit (and it is coming).
All these things are unfunded. The tax bill alone will increase the national debt by 1 to 2 trillion in the next few years; it is impossible to predict the borrowings needed for the trade war.
So Trump has created a huge bubble, riding on a perfect storm of unneeded stimulus, whilst simultaneously doing everything he can to shut down income flows - to both business and the government. And he’s trying to undermine the one institution that has the responsibility for trying to navigate the mess.
The result will be, come the next recession, an enormous crash which has the potential to make 2008 look like the warm-up act. For some time afterwards the economy will be a basket case and, which is unusual, one single culprit can and will be pointed out: Trump (with backup from the Republican party, who have appeared to have gone insane and abandoned everything they stood for, especially fiscal probity). He will go down in history as a terrible warning as to how the USA can screw up big-time if it really puts its mind to it.
So watch for the next few years: it could happen tomorrow, it could be years away. But it’s coming.
Just a final little stat to underline the great Trump competence. Remember his great stump promise about saving the coal miners? Well, the coal industry is cutting capacity and closing mines faster now than when Trump came into office: precisely as predicted by those who remain sane. Trump is now trying to stop it by Exec Order: sadly, economics will win.
Tons of jobs, stock market out of its mind making ... (
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Yes we need to go back to part time jobs with absolutely no benefits. But we could all get on aca and over pay for nothing but high priced docs. Of course we can all get on welfare and let the good government demoRATS take care of us.