Vacaman wrote:
Marvin, inflation is just around the corner, not sure where you received your education in economics, war is money too, printing money without GDP or a federal reserve to cover it means cheap money, that will equate to inflation every-time. I doubt all of the Jewish people would agree with your assessment of Hitlers brilliance either. Infrastructure is paramount to a developing Economy but still must be funded by taxes. Until we have true reform in government they do not deserve anymore tax dollars from me.
Marvin, inflation is just around the corner, not s... (
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Q1: Is our so-called national debt really a serious debt, an interest-bearing burden that we must repay?
A1: No, It lacks the two essential qualities of a really serious debt. Its a Debt In Name Only, a DINO -
1. A really serious debt is a burden. Our DINO is not now and never will be a burden for taxpayers.
Our DINO is the total value of all issued and still maturing treasuries. Who pays for the redemption of mature treasuries? Not the taxpayers! The buyers of newly-issued treasuries pay for the redemption of mature treasuries. Its equivalent to a simple bond rollover done every day. In every auction, more bonds are demanded than are available from the supply of new issues. Auction winners get the safest, most liquid US dollar instruments; the losers are stuck with bank risk. If it were ever necessary, the Fed could even create an artificial demand for US Treasury bonds by buying large quantities of them in the open market with a few cost-free keystrokes. Wheres the taxpayers burden?
Our Treasury does not borrow money like a home-buyer taking a mortgage. It is rather a custodian of funds, like a bank accepting money offered for certificates of deposit. While a bank with too many bad loans can certainly have too many maturing CDs, our non-lending, fiat Treasury cannot have too many maturing bonds unless its deficit spending is causing harmful inflation. And that happens ONLY in a war or emergency requiring rationing. It NEVER happens during a recession. During prosperity, banks are ALWAYS the sole cause of inflation, creating over $6 of credit for every $1 of deficit spending. To curb inflation, dont restrict infrastructure spending for the future! Regulate the banks!
The Treasury auctions bonds only because Congress requires that the proceeds finance the annual budget deficit. This requirement, now a relic of the former gold standard regime, was suspended during World War II, followed by 35 years of strong economic growth without harmful inflation. Now, under our fiat currency regime, Congress can again finance deficits out of thin air without auctions, the same way your corner bank financed your home mortgage.
Calling our DINO unsustainable, Wall Street con artists have panicked the public and many ignorant journalists and politicians in Congress and in the White House. Its a hoax meant to yield a fortune in commissions by privatizing Social Security and Medicare. And, by bribing Congress into austerity, the Wall Street charlatans are nursing a huge army of unemployed labor to suppress middle class wages and working conditions. As our rotting infrastructure renders our industry incompetent, it is that growing army of unemployed labor that will become unsustainable.
2. A really serious debt must be repaid. Our DINO will never be repaid and should never be repaid.
Only a budget surplus can reduce our DINO. Since dropping the gold standard in1971, we have rarely had even a modest budget surplus. None is now in sight. To supply enough treasuries, the ONLY risk-free instruments used for trade collateral, insurance, pensions, bank reserves, etc., our Dino must continue to grow along with our economy. In fact, deflation and then depression will hit us hard unless big budget deficits replace the cash now flowing into China.
Q2: Could savers make a run on Treasury bonds?
A2: Yes, when savers can get risk-free returns from the Wall Street casino or from GM bonds, Illinois bonds, or Detroit bonds. Safety is not everything. Safety is the ONLY thing! Thats why the whole world relies on US bonds.
Q3. Could savers stop buying Treasury bonds?
A3. Sure, when nobody needs risk-free interest for insurance, pensions, trade collateral, bank reserves, etc., etc.
Q4: Could savers prefer foreign sovereign bonds?
A4: Yes, indeed! So far, almost two thirds of the worlds reserve currencies are in US dollars and half of all US Treasury bonds are held by foreigners. But if Chinas infrastructure (and so, its productivity) becomes better than ours, its sovereign bonds could become safer than ours. But that could happen only if US voters worry more about our DINO than they worry about our falling bridges, failing schools, leaking sewers, aging power grids, etc., etc.
Q5: Wont we need higher tax rates to pay for infrastructure?
A5: Congress does not use or need our taxes for spending. The IRS repossesses most federal spending ONLY to prevent harmful inflation and then destroys every cent of it. (Cash payments are shred and sold). For spending, Congress creates new money out of thin air, deposits it in the Treasury, writes checks, and makes the Treasury auction bonds to finance the deficit, which is limited ONLY by Congress and NEVER by the availability of revenue.
Every dollar spent and not repossessed by the IRS is saved by the private sector. Our annual budget deficit is exactly equal to the annual increase in private sector savings. YES! DEFICITS = SAVINGS! No deficits, no savings! A tax deficit is a savings surplus. It is money left on the table for the savers by Uncle Sam because he didnt need it to prevent harmful inflation and because consumers need it to consume. We do not have a national debt. We have a national savings. The bad Debt Clock is really the good Savings Clock. How can we have too much savings?
Since bank loans must be repaid with interest and hard cash is moving to China, budget deficits (surpluses!) are the ONLY savings source that can sustain our economy. We need to DOUBLE our DINO / savings to return it to the World War II level that was followed by 35 years of prosperity without harmful inflation, even with very high tax rates. Our (DINO + total bank deposits) / GDP ratio is less than half of the comparable figure for China. Our M2 (money supply) / GDP ratio is half of Switzerlands ratio and one quarter of Hong Kongs ratio. Too much savings?