The e******n will pit shifting demographics against an urge for national change.
BY DAVID LAUTER
WASHINGTON — The p**********l campaign got fully underway this last week with a flurry of announcements, road trips and rallies that will roll across the country with increasing intensity for the next year and a half.
Most of what grabs headlines in the coming campaign will have little or no impact on who wins, past experience has shown. But underneath the hoopla, two clashing realities will shape what is likely to be a close and hard-fought battle.
Democrats will be trying to win a third consecutive p**********l e******n, a difficult task made harder by the fact that by almost 2 to 1, Americans continue to believe the country is on the wrong track, polls show.
Republicans will be trying to win with a base of supporters that is roughly 90% white in an increasingly diverse country, having failed so far to develop a strategy to attract the growing minority populations who rejected them in 2008 and 2012.
Who wins will almost certainly depend on which proves more powerful — the hunger for change or the inexorable demographic wave.
Or to put it another way, the 2016 e******n will test whether the Obama coalition of minorities and white liberals can hold together, turn out and defeat the aging but still powerful coalition of social and economic conservatives and foreign policy hawks assembled by Ronald Reagan 35 years ago.
The best case for Republicans is that “the American public seldom has the stomach for a third term, and President Obama hasn’t been the kind of leader who generates a third term,” said political scientist Julia R. Azari of Marquette University in Wisconsin.
The two presidents in the modern era whose parties did win three or more e******ns, Reagan and Democrat Franklin D. Roosevelt, both t***sformed American politics by embodying — and helping bring about — a change in what people believed government should do.
Obama has not accomplished that. As a result, Azari said, for Hillary Rodham Clinton — or another Democratic nominee if she stumbles — it’s hard to “talk about the Obama legacy” because it’s not clearly defined.
Obama came into office with hopes of leading the country toward a new acceptance of activist government. Some Democrats hoped, for example, that successful implementation of the Affordable Care Act would cause Americans to warm toward the expanded government role in guaranteeing health coverage it represents.
Obamacare by now has helped more than 20 million Americans get insured, the biggest increase in coverage in half a century.
Contrary to dire warnings from the law’s opponents, healthcare costs have not shot upward — the rate of healthcare inflation is the lowest in years — the job market has improved and the cost to the federal government is below forecasts.
Despite those successes, the country remains sharply divided on the law. American views of the Affordable Care Act have improved a bit in recent months — 43% disapproved and 41% approved in the most recent poll by the Kaiser Family Foundation in March — but mostly, opinions have been stuck about where they were when Congress first passed the bill in 2010.
Rather than changing the nation’s close partisan divide, the healthcare law appears to have reinforced it.
Broader measurements also find continued widespread skepticism about government.
Last year, a poll by the Pew Research Center found 51% of Americans felt that “government is doing too many things better left to business and individuals,” compared with 45% saying “government should do more to solve problems.” The number on the conservative side has grown during Obama’s tenure.
Combine those sentiments with the continued, decade-long feeling that the country is on the wrong track, and 2016 would seem a good year for a Republican p**********l bid.
Maybe. The degree to which v**ers want change depends heavily on the state of the economy, said John G. Geer, political science professor at Vanderbilt University in Tennessee. As economic news has improved, so have Obama’s poll standings, and Democratic chances in 2016 will rise to the extent that trend continues, he said.
Moreover, even if views of government’s role have not shifted, something else has
— with a strong impact on politics.
Under Obama, the Democrats have become even more firmly established in Americans’ eyes as the party of tolerance and diversity. In a Pew poll taken in February, almost 6 in 10 Americans said the Democrats were “tolerant and open to all groups of people.” More than 6 in10 said the Republicans were not.
In the last two decades, the country’s v****g-age population has grown far more diverse, and acceptance of difference has become a more important value for Americans, particularly those younger than 50.
The change can be seen in the dizzying speed with which attitudes toward same-sex marriage have shifted.
An issue that Republicans used a decade ago to divide Democrats now cleaves their own party. GOP lawmakers in Indiana and Arkansas discovered that earlier this spring when v**es to protect business owners with religious scruples against same-sex marriage backfired on them.
The degree to which Democrats are basing their appeal on that image of open-mindedness could be seen in the videotaped announcement that Clinton used to launch her p**********l campaign last Sunday. The video said almost nothing about policy, but its montage of Americans of varied races, ethnicities and sexual orientations conveyed a clear message about diversity.
Republicans who doubt the power of that theme do so at their peril, warns GOP pollster Whit Ayres. In the last e******n, he notes, Obama lost among v**ers who said they most valued a president who is a “strong leader” or “has a vision for the future.” But he won overwhelmingly among those who said they wanted a president who “cares about people like me.”
Women and minorities have consistently rated the Republicans poorly on that dimension of political leadership, and Democrats have profited as a result.
Republicans continue to win big majorities among white v**ers, particularly men, people older than 50, frequent churchgoers and residents of the South. That support has enabled the party to win big victories in congressional e******ns, where older, white v**ers still predominate.
But in p**********l e******ns, the white percentage of the e*****rate has shrunk steadily, from 88% when Reagan first won in 1980, down to 72% in 2012.
The white percentage has dropped as increasing numbers of Latinos, and more recently Asian Americans, have become v**ers. That trend will continue for decades as a diverse generation still in its teens reaches v****g age and older w****s pass from the scene.
What to do about that challenge has split Republicans.
Some party strategists argue that pushing just a bit harder will allow the GOP to squeeze one more victory out of the Reagan-era coalition. Obama v**ers, particularly b****s, may not show up as much without Obama on the ticket, they say.
Sen. Ted Cruz of Texas has been the most outspoken of the current Republican p**********l hopefuls in declaring that nominating a combative conservative — one like him — would drive up Republican turnout.
On the other side of the divide, analysts like Ayres, who works for Sen. Marco Rubio of Florida, and Karl Rove, who was President George W. Bush’s chief political strategist, warn that the GOP will lose, regardless of its 2016 candidate, if it fails to find a way to reach out to minority v**ers, especially Latinos.
“Trying to win a p**********l e******n by gaining a larger and larger share of the v**e from a smaller and smaller share of the e*****rate is a losing proposition,” Ayres wrote in a recent book, “2016 and Beyond.”
That sort of internal debate is typical of parties that have repeatedly lost p**********l e******ns, Geer said. Often “the activists argue that the party was not pure enough in its values, and they push for a more extreme candidate who will be true to the party’s ideology.”
Eventually they usually get their wish, and it generally ends badly, he added.
“Ask [Barry] Goldwater or [George] McGovern,” the 1964 Republican nominee and the 1972 Democratic nominee, Geer said. Both lost in landslides. david.lauter@latimes.com   Twitter: @DavidLauter

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SEN. TED CRUZ says nominating an outspoken conservative like him would lift GOP turnout.

If you ever get an answer to this question, please share it. I have watched my state elect a governor not once but twice, who was forced out of Washington for ethics violations.

The man came back almost bankrupt to become a millionaire while in office. He openly takes pay offs, yet people continue to elect him. An Atlanta newspaper ran articles showing the contributions he received from the medical and insurance agencies, prior to refusing to expand Medicaid for the poor.

We have one of the worst employment records in the nation. We have the right to own s***es law commonly known as the right to work law. We give mass tax breaks to corporations while having one of the worst public school systems in the country.

It absolutely defies logic.

If you ever get an answer to this question, please share it. I have watched my state elect a governor not once but twice, who was forced out of Washington for ethics violations.

The man came back almost bankrupt to become a millionaire while in office. He openly takes pay offs, yet people continue to elect him. An Atlanta newspaper ran articles showing the contributions he received from the medical and insurance agencies, prior to refusing to expand Medicaid for the poor.

We have one of the worst employment records in the nation. We have the right to own s***es law commonly known as the right to work law. We give mass tax breaks to corporations while having one of the worst public school systems in the country.

It absolutely defies logic.

If you ever get an answer to this question, please share it. I have watched my state elect a governor not once but twice, who was forced out of Washington for ethics violations.

The man came back almost bankrupt to become a millionaire while in office. He openly takes pay offs, yet people continue to elect him. An Atlanta newspaper ran articles showing the contributions he received from the medical and insurance agencies, prior to refusing to expand Medicaid for the poor.

We have one of the worst employment records in the nation. We have the right to own s***es law commonly known as the right to work law. We give mass tax breaks to corporations while having one of the worst public school systems in the country.

It absolutely defies logic.

*Really? Over a Parking Spot?

North Carolina k*****gs detailed
Neighbor complained about parking, then fired at three Muslim students several times each, prosecutor says.
BY DAVID ZUCCHINO
DURHAM, N.C. — A prosecutor described in court here Monday how Craig Stephen Hicks, accused of k*****g three Muslim college students Feb. 10, methodically shot each one several times after a dispute over a parking space.
Hicks told police that he retrieved a handgun from his apartment after he arrived home that day and encountered “certain issues … involving parking,” Assistant Dist. Atty. James Dornfried told a packed courtroom as he petitioned a judge to apply the death penalty in the case.
Hicks confronted Deah Shaddy Barakat, 23, at Barakat’s front door and “there was a brief interaction, a discussion” involving parking. Hicks then shot Barakat several times, Dornfried said.
When Barakat’s newlywed wife, Yusor Mohammad Abu-Salha, 21, and her sister, Razan Mohammad Abu-Salha, 19, began screaming, Hicks stepped inside the apartment and shot both women, Dornfried said.
“They were alive after the first volley,” the prosecutor said. “Each one of these women was then shot in the head.”
He added: “The defendant then started exiting the apartment and shot Deah Barakat a final time.”
Moments after Dornfried described the k*****gs, Dr. Mohammad Abu-Salha, the father of the two women, passed a few feet behind Hicks at the defense table and muttered: “Coward. Scumbag.”
Hicks, 46, who sat manacled in an orange prison uniform, glanced up at Abu-Sal-ha but did not respond.
Friends and relatives of the victims’ families glared at Hicks as they left the courtroom after the brief hearing.
Terry W. Alford, a private attorney assigned to assist a court-appointed state capital defender who is leading Hicks’ defense, did not contest the prosecutor’s request for the death penalty.
Durham Superior Court Judge Orlando F. Hudson Jr. ruled that the prosecution had met the state standard for a capital case.
Hicks is charged with three counts of first-degree murder and discharging a firearm into an occupied dwelling.
Dornfried said Yusor Abu-Salha’s blood was found on Hicks’ pants, and shell casings from the scene matched a handgun confiscated from Hicks’ car.
Hudson set the next hearing in the case for the first week of June.
The three students lived in an apartment below the unit occupied by Hicks and his wife on Summerwalk Circle in the Finley Forest complex in Chapel Hill. Gunshots were heard in the busy complex just after 5 p.m. on Feb. 10.
Chapel Hill police said the shootings stemmed from a parking dispute.
Neighbors said Hicks was notorious for angrily confronting residents and visitors about parking or noise. He often called a towing company to remove cars he said were parked in spaces he claimed were reserved for him and his wife.
Two days after the shootings, the U.S. Justice Department announced that the FBI had begun a preliminary investigation into whether the shootings amounted to a h**e crime. The decision came after the case received worldwide attention, propelled by a social media campaign tagged #muslimlivesmatter.
Friends and family members of the three students said the victims were targeted because of their religion.
Barakat’s brother, Farris, and Deah’s close friend and former apartment roommate, Imad Ahmad, told The Times that Hicks’ anger intensified after the Abu-Salha sisters, who wore Muslim head scarves, began spending more time at the apartment. Yusor Abu-Sal-ha moved in after the couple married Dec. 27.
Deah Barakat was a dental student at the University of North Carolina. His wife was to join him in the dental program this fall. Razan Abu-Salha was a student in the design school at North Carolina State University.
Hicks, a paralegal student at Durham Technical Community College, surrendered to police the evening of the shootings.
On his Facebook page, Hicks wrote, “Some call me a gun toting Liberal, others call me an open-minded Conservative.”
Hicks, who described himself as an atheist or “anti-theist,” railed against organized religion on his Facebook page. He did not specifically criticize Islam, and neighbors said in interviews that they never heard him make any comments about the religion.
Karen Hicks, Hicks’ wife of seven years, denied that the shootings were a result of religious hatred.
“I can say that it is my absolute belief that this incident had nothing to do with religion or the victims’ faith, but in fact was related to long-standing parking disputes my husband had with various neighbors regardless of their race, religion or creed,” she said.
But Namee Barakat, the father of Deah Barakat, said in February that his son and the two women were possibly k**led because of their Muslim faith.
“This is more than just about parking,” Barakat said. “Three people get shot in the head. The death penalty would not be enough.” david.zucchino

It depends on where you are and your strategy...there are six figure salaries abound...there has to be...a schitty house in a schitty neighborhood can be 400K.....I wouldn't be here if it were not for a plan...the beauty of it is...if/when I go back to Texas when i retire, I can get a palace....i'll get CA money in TX without the state taxes...hopefully, I will expand my online teaching and my consulting business totally online....and couple that with my retirements from various places and not live like a retiree.....because inflation will eventually catch up with a fixed income...unless that income is quite a bit..........

Some Cal State faculty say they get food stamps
BY CARLA RIVERA
Some California State University faculty say their salary is so low that they must work two jobs, can’t afford to buy a home and at times depend on food stamps and other government assistance to get by.
Those and other hardships were recounted in a report released Tuesday by the California Faculty Assn., which contends that the 23-campus system is failing to invest in its teaching workforce.
The faculty group this year surveyed more than 5,500 members and found widespread discontent and demoralization about their financial well-being.
On average, members earn $45,000 annually before taxes and other deductions, the union said. The number is based on earnings of full-time professors and those hired on a part-time basis, who make up about half of the faculty.
“Faculty salaries are dropping to the point that it’s hard to call teaching at CSU a middle-class profession,” faculty association President Lillian Taiz, said during a call with reporters.
Cal State officials questioned both the findings in the report and the timing of it. The two sides soon will begin contract negotiations.
The report, “Race to the Bottom, Losing Ground and Losing Faith,” is one of a series produced by the faculty union that it says reveals a trend of losses in salary and positions for faculty compared with increases in those areas for executives.
The union represents about 25,000 Cal State professors, lecturers, librarians, counselors and coaches. About 100 faculty members held a rally Tuesday at the Capitol in Sacramento.
The timing of the reports is strategic: After going five years without a raise, faculty won a 1.34% pay hike in 2013 and a1.6% boost last year.
The latest three-year pact called for the two sides to reopen salary and benefit talks for 2015-16 and 2016-17.
“The California Faculty Assn.’s claims about the university’s investment in faculty and its impact on students are not only misleading, they are being made because the union is attempting to enhance its position in salary negotiations starting in May,” spokeswoman Laurie Weidner said.
Weidner also called into question many of the salary figures cited by the report. New, tenure-track faculty hired as assistant professors started at a base pay of $72,519 in 2014 for about 9.5 months of work, she said. That salary figure does not include $41,300 in health and retirement benefits.
The average salary for a part-time lecturer was $48,823 for a teaching load of one to four classes per semester. The lowest hourly rate for part-time Cal State lecturers was nearly $32, compared with a national part-time average of $28.86, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics.
But faculty officials argue that those “base salary” averages do not paint an accurate picture of actual take-home pay. carla.rivera@latimes.com