The Golden State exodus continues, though at a slower pace
Another year, another dip in California’s population.
By Ryan Fonseca
As of July, California’s population fell to an estimated 38,965,000, down by 75,400 over 12 months, according to recent data from the U.S. Census Bureau.
This recent map shows more details of the population decline in 2023, presenting county-by-county changes across the U.S.
From July 1, 2022, to July 1, 2023, 17 of California’s 53 counties experienced a population increase while the majority lost residents. Populations fell in every coastal county from Del Norte down to San Diego.
Los Angeles County lost 56,420 residents in 2023, the most of any county across the U.S., census data show. But that’s notably fewer people than the 89,697 the county lost in 2022. And despite a few years of shrinking, L.A. County is still the most populous county in the U.S. by a healthy margin.
Orange and San Diego counties were also among the top 10 U.S. counties that lost the most residents in the July-to-July counts; their populations fell by 14,617 and 7,203 people, respectively.
“Entering this century, when California’s still-growing population was 34 million, we were predicted to reach 45 million by 2020 and almost 60 million by 2040,” Times political columnist George Skelton wrote this week. “So much for that.”
Although a portion of those population changes is attributed to what the Census Bureau refers to as “natural change” — births and deaths — primarily, the numbers are shifting because more people are moving out of California than are moving in, a phenomenon that’s been in the news since the p******c.
Individual circumstances may vary, but the main reasons for leaving are not a mystery. Simply put, California is an expensive place to live compared with nearly every other state. More people have found themselves disillusioned with the California dream amid skyrocketing housing prices and paychecks that don’t go as far as they would across state lines.
Essential California readers told us as much last April, when we asked Californians who’d moved to different counties or out of the state to share their reasons.
Many said they’d moved because of the rising cost of living, especially housing that felt increasingly unaffordable. Some left to be closer to family, a priority during those isolating early p******c years. Others cited growing concerns about public safety or dissatisfaction with the state’s government — officials’ response to homelessness, or inaction on air quality or simply differences in political ideology.
“My quality of life is better than it has ever been,” wrote Alberto E., who moved to New Mexico from Alameda County. “Both because I’ve advanced in my career but also because I can live comfortably, save money and have a mortgage in a place that is more affordable. I do miss California dearly, but not enough to move back.”
California’s population had grown every year since statehood in 1850, but around 2000, that growth started to slow. Skelton offered an explanation: “California just got too big for its carrying capacity.”
“Blame California’s high costs of land and labor plus regulatory quagmires and neighborhood resistance to growth,” he wrote. “[Gov.] Newsom and legislators have been wrestling with these issues for years and enacted new laws, but they haven’t generated much progress in making home buying more affordable.”
Although people moving out of state represent the largest share of the population decline, researchers also cite lower birthrates, plus an increased mortality rate and a sharp drop in people moving to California from other countries — both fueled by the C****-** p******c.
“In the long term, declining birth rates, longer life expectancy, and the aging of the baby boomers all mean that California’s population is getting older, and deaths will likely rise as the population ages,” the nonpartisan Public Policy Institute of California reported late last year.
Some in the California-is-full camp might be tempted to celebrate. But if the state continues on this trajectory, that could mean less tax revenue and diminished congressional power via fewer House seats (we already lost one after the 2020 census).
So, what can be done? Skelton offered one suggestion that he said “worked well for generations until the state got greedy” about half a century back:
“Free tuition at public universities for California residents. That would at least help prevent a brain drain.”
The Golden State exodus continues, though at a slo... (
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