The Northern Triangle Reality and U.S. Response
The Northern Triangle region of Central America includes the small, but strikingly violent countries of El Salvador, Honduras, and Guatemala (Figure 1). Honduras has been recognized as the murder capital of the world for many years, with its homicide rate peaking in 2011 at 91.6 murders per 100,000 people. In 2014, that rate dropped to 66, but remains one of the highest for a non-war zone country. By 2012-13, the rates for Guatemala and El Salvador had dropped as well, but only in Guatemala did this trend of reduced violence continue into 2014-15. Though our United Nations homicide data end in 2013, more recent data from 2015 indicates that homicide rates in Guatemala have remained steady, but have more than doubled in El Salvador. After the late 2013 breakdown of a truce between the country’s two most powerful gangs (MS-13 and Barrio 18), homicide rates increased dramatically, reaching an all-time high of 104 murders per 100,000 people in 2015. Not surprisingly, research on the causes of migration from this region increasingly finds these high levels of crime and violence as a primary push factor in Central American migration.
Homicide statistics are just one measure of the pervasive violence in many marginalized communities in all three countries. Extortion is also widespread. Data compiled by the Honduran daily La Prensa revealed that Salvadorans pay an estimated US$400 million a year in extortion fees, while Hondurans pay around $200 million and Guatemalans an estimated $61 million. Small businesses, the public t***sport sector, and poor neighborhoods are the most heavily hit. A 2013 report revealed that 70 percent of small businesses in El Salvador are victims of extortion. According to a Guatemalan human rights organization, between January and July of 2014, at least 700 people had been k**led for failing to pay extortion fees.
2. People are fleeing community-level violence, which is often personal and direct. They face real and specific threats from street gangs, extortionists, drug traffickers, and from domestic abuse, and so may be potential targets if returned. In many poor and marginalized communities in all three countries, women and children are victims of extortion, abuse, rape, murder, and gang-related violence. In many of these communities, citizens face explicit threats on their lives for reasons that may include bearing witness to a crime, attempting to leave a gang, or failing to pay an extortion fee or war tax. A 2015 report by the United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees (UNHCR) found that women in particular face a “startling” degree of violence in the Northern Triangle and Mexico, including rape, assault, extortion, and threats by armed criminal groups. Sixty-four percent of women interviewed for the study cited targeted threats or attacks as one of their primary motivations for leaving their communities.
Although there are no official records of how many deported migrants have been k**led upon return to their home countries, one study has estimated that over 80 returnees have been murdered in El Salvador, Guatemala, and Honduras since January 2014. A recent article published in The Guardian profiled three cases of returned migrants who were murdered shortly after being deported from the United States, one only days after his arrival. A short op-doc produced by the New York Times chronicling the journey of several unaccompanied children from Honduras described the endemic violence as a key factor in many minors’ decision to make the risky journey north.
3. These individuals have nowhere to turn for protection if they are sent back. Countries of the Northern Triangle are not providing security for their citizens. Victims of violence, extortion, sexual abuse, and death threats rarely find protection from the authorities. In fact, many victims fear the police as much as the criminals. In the Northern Triangle countries, rule of law and law enforcement institutions are weak and corrupted. The majority of police forces are underfunded, plagued by poor leadership, and sometimes complicit in criminal activity.
In El Salvador, growing concerns of reports of police and security force involvement in extrajudicial k*****gs and human rights abuses are troubling. Among the Northern Triangle countries as a whole, the statistics on criminal investigation and prosecution are appalling: only five percent of homicide cases lead to a conviction in the region. Given this context, it is not surprising that women, children, and youth consider fleeing their communities in search of safety and protection.
4. The dangers people are fleeing are documented in skyrocketing requests for asylum or other forms of protection from citizens of the Northern Triangle, not just in the United States but in other countries of the region. It is not illegal to cross international borders to seek asylum. While the United States continues to be a primary destination, the countries neighboring the Northern Triangle, including Mexico, Costa Rica, Belize, and Nicaragua, have seen requests for asylum from citizens of these countries increase by almost 1,200 percent from 2008 to 2014. Between 2008 and August 2015, Costa Rica alone saw a sixteen-fold increase in asylum requests from the Northern Triangle countries. Request for asylum in Mexico, primarily from Northern Triangle countries, have more than doubled since 2013. In a further illustration that fear and insecurity are driving migration and requests for asylum and protection, a UNHCR analysis of credible fear screenings carried out by U.S. asylum officers found that in 2015, 82 percent of the women from El Salvador, Guatemala, Honduras, and Mexico who were screened on arrival at the U.S. border “to have a significant possibility of establishing eligibility for asylum or protection under the Convention against Torture.”
Of course, the decision to migrate is a complicated one, and a variety of factors– especially economic insecurity and family situation–play into the decision. But there can be little doubt that violence and insecurity are major drivers in the decision of a growing number of Northern Triangle citizens to leave their country in search of protection.
5. While there has been an increase in Central American migrants, especially women, children, and families, overall migration at the United States’ southern border is low, and there is no migration crisis at our border. While headlines about Central Americans’ flight from violence may leave the other impression, the fact is overall migration to the United States through the southern border has plummeted in recent years. There is simply no crisis of illegal border-crossing to justify the recent deportation policy. In fiscal year 2015, Border Patrol apprehended 331,313 people at the U.S.-Mexico border. That is the second fewest of any year since 1972, and the number of Mexican citizens apprehended (186,017) is the lowest since 1970. (In 2000 Border Patrol, with less than half as many agents as 2015, apprehended over 1.6 million Mexicans.)
https://www.wola.org/analysis/five-facts-about-migration-from-central-americas-northern-triangle/
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