Behold the NASDAQ Bear and Soon to be DJIA?
May 6, 2022 19:02:48 #
Buckle up. 2022 is kicking off a vicious bear market Parky60
On January 3, the DJIA peaked at 36,934. As of May 6, it has lost over 4000 points to arrive at 32,883, an 11 percent drop. The NASDAQs high occurred on November 18, 2021 at 16,121; it now stands at 12,197, a total loss of almost 4000 points, or 24 percent.
Is anyone pointing out that the NASDAQ is in a bear market? No. Why? Because the FEDS and financial institutions don’t want that realization to take hold. Why? Because the DJIA could quickly lose another 4,000 points, which would lead to further carnage all around.
This is shaping up to look like the bear market of 1973-1974, in which US stock indexes lost 45 percent of its value in 24 months. The UK lost 73 percent! Given the excesses of the recent markets, there is no reason to think this one could not lose a lot more than 45 percent. Time to buckle up.
Interest rates are shooting higher while the FED jumped its rate by 0.50 percent. This is already chilling the housing and credit markets. Inflation is one aspect of this, but consider that households already pinched on rising food costs are going to be slammed with much higher rates on their credit card debt. Public sentiment is on the verge of a huge wake up call, and it could lead to more bankruptcies and foreclosures than we saw during the 2008-2010 period.
Given the extreme volatility that we have seen during the first 5 months of 2022, it may be that a comparison to 1973-74 is premature. In other words, we may have to look back to the period 1929-1933 for better historical guidance.
On January 3, the DJIA peaked at 36,934. As of May 6, it has lost over 4000 points to arrive at 32,883, an 11 percent drop. The NASDAQs high occurred on November 18, 2021 at 16,121; it now stands at 12,197, a total loss of almost 4000 points, or 24 percent.
Is anyone pointing out that the NASDAQ is in a bear market? No. Why? Because the FEDS and financial institutions don’t want that realization to take hold. Why? Because the DJIA could quickly lose another 4,000 points, which would lead to further carnage all around.
This is shaping up to look like the bear market of 1973-1974, in which US stock indexes lost 45 percent of its value in 24 months. The UK lost 73 percent! Given the excesses of the recent markets, there is no reason to think this one could not lose a lot more than 45 percent. Time to buckle up.
Interest rates are shooting higher while the FED jumped its rate by 0.50 percent. This is already chilling the housing and credit markets. Inflation is one aspect of this, but consider that households already pinched on rising food costs are going to be slammed with much higher rates on their credit card debt. Public sentiment is on the verge of a huge wake up call, and it could lead to more bankruptcies and foreclosures than we saw during the 2008-2010 period.
Given the extreme volatility that we have seen during the first 5 months of 2022, it may be that a comparison to 1973-74 is premature. In other words, we may have to look back to the period 1929-1933 for better historical guidance.
May 6, 2022 20:16:52 #
Parky60 wrote:
i Buckle up. 2022 is kicking off a vicious bear m... (show quote)
That's why I invested in hand held gold, silver, lead and brass and food and water. F the stock market. Mike
May 6, 2022 20:22:50 #
JFlorio
Loc: Seminole Florida
What no one is talking about is the bond curve is close to inverting. In other words the 2 year treasury may soon pay more than the 10. If that happens we will have a recession. Every recession has been proceeded by an inverted bond curve. In the past as equities (stocks) went down in value, bonds went up. That’s not happening right now. In 1980 the 10 year treasury was around 11%. That’s the last time inflation was this high. Right now the 10!year treasury is at 3%. A $100 10 yr bond at this time would be worth about $36. We are in trouble. I won’t put a client in any Bonds longer than 2 years.
Parky60 wrote:
i Buckle up. 2022 is kicking off a vicious bear m... (show quote)
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