US Economic Outlook for 2021 and Beyond
The March recession ended 128 months of expansion, the longest in U.S. history.1 In Q2, the economy contracted by a record 31.4%. Quarterly GDP had never experienced a drop greater than 10% since record-keeping began in 1947.
In April, retail sales were down 14.7% as governors closed nonessential businesses, but by May sales recovered, increasing by 18.3% as shops and restaurants slowly reopened safely. As the pandemic hit the second wave in the fall, though, sales started falling again, declining by 1.1% in November.
Also in April, the unemployment rate skyrocketed to 14.7% as companies furloughed workers. It remained in the double digits until August, when it steadily declined.45 In the week ending Dec. 12, though, claims rose sharply to 853,000, marking the largest increase in claims filed since mid-September.
Economic Growth
According to the most recent forecast released at the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting on Dec. 16, 2020, U.S. GDP growth is expected to contract by 2.4% in 2020. It is estimated to then rebound up to a 4.2% growth rate in 2021, and slow to 3.2% in 2022, and 2.4% in 2023.
Unemployment
The FOMC estimates that the unemployment rate will be 6.7% for the year 2020. It will gradually decline in the following years, down to 5% in 2021, 4.2% in 2022, and 3.7% in 2023.7 The rate peaked at 14.7% in April 2020 as workers were let go from their jobs in response to the pandemic.
The real unemployment rate includes the underemployed, the marginally attached, and discouraged workers. For that reason, it is around double the widely-reported data you typically see in news articles.
https://www.thebalance.com/us-economic-outlook-3305669Crude oil increased by $25.00.
Gasoline increased by $0.70.
Lumber 3X increase.
Corn and soybeans.
All since the election.
US Dollar lost over $3000.00 per futures contract since November 2020.
Foreign currencies are increasing.
US Economic Outlook for 2021 and Beyond br The Mar... (