It appears you are correct but this is one of those things that no one can predict the outcome. While it has the potential to escalate, it currently is only a what-if-crisis at this point.
It is a confusing situation right now:
Lindsay Graham is making a connection to Benghazi;
Marco Rubio supports Mr. Obama and Mr. Kerry that Russia must pay for it's behavior;
H. Clinton compares Russian behavior to Nazi Germany issuing emergency passports for leaving Crimea;
D. Rumsfeld criticizes weak foreign policy;
McCain says Putin has no respect for Mr. Obama;
Palin said, "I told you so";
No word from ex-Sec Condoleeza Rice or Colin Powell;
Merkel is quiet, only stating something about preserving territorial integrity;
Putin says except for the illegal president there, Ukrainians are brothers of Russia;
Crimea's Prime Minister claims all Ukrainian soldiers there have disarmed and pledged allegiance to Russia;
Crimea has declared a autonomy referendum March 30th but Ukrainian Parliament said they can't legally vote until May 30th;
Ukraine has a $15B bill it owes Russia;
Europe gets a third of it's energy from Russia via Ukraine pipelines;
All these factors illustrate that there is no clear path to predict what will happen. There are too many strategic disadvantages for either Russia, Ukraine or the US to escalate a position. It appears there are natural pressures for a Russian ally to step in and figure out a way for Russia to respectfully bail out while appeasing the US demand for some punishment. Maybe Merkel or Hollande can broker a deal.
lpnmajor wrote:
There IS no crisis there, except in the minds of the media and politicians wanting to divert attention. The Crimean bases involved belong to the Russians, so they can do what they want. The Ukrainian Gov. FEARS an invasion, but that does not MAKE an invasion.
There are far more important issues to occupy peoples attention. A manufactured crisis is not one of them. Letting the media determine public policy is a very stupid thing to do, but then we've really gotten used to it.