Why a Contested Convention Favors Cruz
Mar 24, 2016 10:15:19 #
If Trump gets the 1237 delegates, then he should get the nomination, but if he doesn't, then Cruz could squeak it out at a contested convention.
Meet Curly Haugland, former chairman of the North Dakota Republican party and current Republican national committeeman. Haugland is one of just 112 delegates who will arrive unbound to this summers Republican convention in Cleveland, free to cast a v**e for any candidate he chooses on a first b****t because North Dakota does not hold a primary or caucus. That makes him a particularly valuable asset to the still-dueling p**********l campaigns.
Haugland, a Bismarck businessman and a member of the powerful RNC committee that will set the rules governing this years convention, says v**ers may be in for a rude awakening when they learn that the v**es cast by delegates on the floor of the convention rather than those cast in primaries and caucuses actually determine the Republican nominee. The results on Fox are just a participation ribbon, he says. Thats true: Regardless of who wins each states nominating contest, a candidate does not become the partys standard-bearer until he receives a majority of the delegate v**e on the convention floor.
The behind-the-scenes efforts by p**********l candidates to win the allegiance of delegates such as Haugland are now attracting as much press coverage as the campaign itself. But those privy to the internal workings of the RNC and the delegate-se******n process many of whom agreed to speak on background to preserve their relationships with the candidates say that the task of wooing individual delegates is probably too complex for an active p**********l campaign to successfully manage, and that its unlikely to matter much. Thats because the delegates, who are elected through processes dictated by state-party bureaucracies, are themselves likely to be long-time Republican insiders more partial to Cruz than Trump.
So if the race comes down to a fight on the convention floor, its almost certain to become clear that there are, in fact, benefits to being a party insider, relatively speaking. And it may be the richest irony in a cycle full of them that Cruz, whose feud with the party establishment is the stuff of legend, finds himself in the best position to reap those benefits if he can hold off Trump until July.
Haugland has been researching the RNCs nominee-se******n process for five years now. He is in the middle of writing a book intended to serve as a guide for the 2,472 Republican delegates who will cast b****ts in Cleveland, which he aims to publish 45 days before the convention. And though he has not endorsed a candidate himself, he says Trump is unlikely to win if the convention requires more than one b****t.
He points to Arizona as an example. T***p w*n the states primary on Tuesday evening, but regardless of what any campaign does, the majority of Arizonas 58 delegates, who are unbound after the first b****t, are likely to defect to Cruz on subsequent v**es. V**ers in the primaries are not representative of the people who are gonna be sittin in the chairs in Cleveland, he says. The convention delegates from Arizona are going to be very conservative people, I guarantee ya.
Then, too, there are states such as New Hampshire, Georgia, and Ohio, which have open primaries that allow Trump-leaning Democrats and independents to cast b****ts, but where delegates are elected through processes set up by state Republican parties who are by definition, well, Republicans.
That doesnt mean that any of the candidates have given up on courting delegates: Each remaining campaign has launched an organized effort to woo as many of them as possible. The consensus among party insiders is that Cruzs operation is the strongest. But there is also broad agreement that it may not be sophisticated enough to make much difference.
I believe they are making the most spirited effort and kind of get the joke on what to do, says one GOP insider. What worries me about the effort is that they have so under-performed in the states that were supposed to be the Cruz strength that the whole effort seems like more hype than deliverance at this point. Says a former Republican national committeeman: They talk a big, big game. But theyre mostly benefiting from the fact that the insiders, the establishment group in these states, are going to be the ones that know how to work this thing.
Indeed, a process so steeped in minutiae rewards those insiders who know it inside and out. The vast majority of GOP delegates are selected through state-specific and often dizzyingly complex procedures, some of which unfold over the course of several months. In Georgia and Virginia, for example, delegates to precinct and county conventions elect delegates to the state convention, where the states delegation to the national convention is ultimately chosen.
And thats not all: After a states delegation is chosen, the delegates then meet to determine whom among them to elect to each of the RNCs four committees, some of which will make potentially critical decisions this summer. (Two members of each delegation are elected to each of the four committees, and each delegation has a chairman, so the smallest states and territories such as the Northern Mariana Islands are allotted nine delegates.) The RNCs credentials committee will rule on which delegates are actually seated on the convention floor (their legitimacy can be challenged), and Hauglands rules committee will v**e on the rules governing the convention, including the standards a candidate must meet to be officially nominated. In a perfect world, the campaigns would be working to stack these committees in their favor.
So yes, there are a few complexities for the campaigns to grapple with. Its a really, really, really difficult process, says another GOP insider. It was straining on [former Republican p**********l candidate Mitt] Romney four years ago to get into all those state conventions when he was the obvious nominee by the time most of the conventions took place, so I think its even more of a challenge in this particular environment. Even Romney, who had the nomination well in hand when he arrived at the convention in Tampa, Fla., in 2012, saw unexpected delegate defections. (22 of Iowas 28 delegates cast their b****ts for Ron Paul, who finished third in the state.)
Since a second b****t favors Cruz, it is Donald Trump who has ground to make up if he cant win a majority of delegates on the campaign trail. And his allies are sounding justifiably overwhelmed by an overwhelming process. This is not difficult to figure out in any one state, Ed Brookover, a former RNC field director now working on Trumps delegate strategy told the Wall Street Journal. It only sort of begins to get complicated when youre talking about 56 different places. (Brookover refers to 56 different places rather than 50 different states because there are six territories, including Puerto Rico and Guam, which will also send delegates to the convention.)
There is perhaps no better example of Trumps potential weakness on the floor in Cleveland, and of Cruzs strength, than South Carolina. T***p w*n every single one of the 50 delegates up for grabs in the states February 20 primary, which was open. But to serve as a delegate from South Carolina, one has to have been a delegate to the 2015 state convention, held before Trump even announced his candidacy. These are establishment people. Whoever is chosen for national delegate will have allegiance to the party establishment, and the party establishment is never going to be fond of Donald Trump, a South Carolina GOP insider told Bloombergs Sasha Issenberg.
As Trump continues to expand his lead over Cruz in the delegate count, the establishment must look more appealing than ever to Texass junior senator.
http://www.nationalreview.com/article/433136/republican-contested-convention-favors-ted-cruz-over-donald-trump
Meet Curly Haugland, former chairman of the North Dakota Republican party and current Republican national committeeman. Haugland is one of just 112 delegates who will arrive unbound to this summers Republican convention in Cleveland, free to cast a v**e for any candidate he chooses on a first b****t because North Dakota does not hold a primary or caucus. That makes him a particularly valuable asset to the still-dueling p**********l campaigns.
Haugland, a Bismarck businessman and a member of the powerful RNC committee that will set the rules governing this years convention, says v**ers may be in for a rude awakening when they learn that the v**es cast by delegates on the floor of the convention rather than those cast in primaries and caucuses actually determine the Republican nominee. The results on Fox are just a participation ribbon, he says. Thats true: Regardless of who wins each states nominating contest, a candidate does not become the partys standard-bearer until he receives a majority of the delegate v**e on the convention floor.
The behind-the-scenes efforts by p**********l candidates to win the allegiance of delegates such as Haugland are now attracting as much press coverage as the campaign itself. But those privy to the internal workings of the RNC and the delegate-se******n process many of whom agreed to speak on background to preserve their relationships with the candidates say that the task of wooing individual delegates is probably too complex for an active p**********l campaign to successfully manage, and that its unlikely to matter much. Thats because the delegates, who are elected through processes dictated by state-party bureaucracies, are themselves likely to be long-time Republican insiders more partial to Cruz than Trump.
So if the race comes down to a fight on the convention floor, its almost certain to become clear that there are, in fact, benefits to being a party insider, relatively speaking. And it may be the richest irony in a cycle full of them that Cruz, whose feud with the party establishment is the stuff of legend, finds himself in the best position to reap those benefits if he can hold off Trump until July.
Haugland has been researching the RNCs nominee-se******n process for five years now. He is in the middle of writing a book intended to serve as a guide for the 2,472 Republican delegates who will cast b****ts in Cleveland, which he aims to publish 45 days before the convention. And though he has not endorsed a candidate himself, he says Trump is unlikely to win if the convention requires more than one b****t.
He points to Arizona as an example. T***p w*n the states primary on Tuesday evening, but regardless of what any campaign does, the majority of Arizonas 58 delegates, who are unbound after the first b****t, are likely to defect to Cruz on subsequent v**es. V**ers in the primaries are not representative of the people who are gonna be sittin in the chairs in Cleveland, he says. The convention delegates from Arizona are going to be very conservative people, I guarantee ya.
Then, too, there are states such as New Hampshire, Georgia, and Ohio, which have open primaries that allow Trump-leaning Democrats and independents to cast b****ts, but where delegates are elected through processes set up by state Republican parties who are by definition, well, Republicans.
That doesnt mean that any of the candidates have given up on courting delegates: Each remaining campaign has launched an organized effort to woo as many of them as possible. The consensus among party insiders is that Cruzs operation is the strongest. But there is also broad agreement that it may not be sophisticated enough to make much difference.
I believe they are making the most spirited effort and kind of get the joke on what to do, says one GOP insider. What worries me about the effort is that they have so under-performed in the states that were supposed to be the Cruz strength that the whole effort seems like more hype than deliverance at this point. Says a former Republican national committeeman: They talk a big, big game. But theyre mostly benefiting from the fact that the insiders, the establishment group in these states, are going to be the ones that know how to work this thing.
Indeed, a process so steeped in minutiae rewards those insiders who know it inside and out. The vast majority of GOP delegates are selected through state-specific and often dizzyingly complex procedures, some of which unfold over the course of several months. In Georgia and Virginia, for example, delegates to precinct and county conventions elect delegates to the state convention, where the states delegation to the national convention is ultimately chosen.
And thats not all: After a states delegation is chosen, the delegates then meet to determine whom among them to elect to each of the RNCs four committees, some of which will make potentially critical decisions this summer. (Two members of each delegation are elected to each of the four committees, and each delegation has a chairman, so the smallest states and territories such as the Northern Mariana Islands are allotted nine delegates.) The RNCs credentials committee will rule on which delegates are actually seated on the convention floor (their legitimacy can be challenged), and Hauglands rules committee will v**e on the rules governing the convention, including the standards a candidate must meet to be officially nominated. In a perfect world, the campaigns would be working to stack these committees in their favor.
So yes, there are a few complexities for the campaigns to grapple with. Its a really, really, really difficult process, says another GOP insider. It was straining on [former Republican p**********l candidate Mitt] Romney four years ago to get into all those state conventions when he was the obvious nominee by the time most of the conventions took place, so I think its even more of a challenge in this particular environment. Even Romney, who had the nomination well in hand when he arrived at the convention in Tampa, Fla., in 2012, saw unexpected delegate defections. (22 of Iowas 28 delegates cast their b****ts for Ron Paul, who finished third in the state.)
Since a second b****t favors Cruz, it is Donald Trump who has ground to make up if he cant win a majority of delegates on the campaign trail. And his allies are sounding justifiably overwhelmed by an overwhelming process. This is not difficult to figure out in any one state, Ed Brookover, a former RNC field director now working on Trumps delegate strategy told the Wall Street Journal. It only sort of begins to get complicated when youre talking about 56 different places. (Brookover refers to 56 different places rather than 50 different states because there are six territories, including Puerto Rico and Guam, which will also send delegates to the convention.)
There is perhaps no better example of Trumps potential weakness on the floor in Cleveland, and of Cruzs strength, than South Carolina. T***p w*n every single one of the 50 delegates up for grabs in the states February 20 primary, which was open. But to serve as a delegate from South Carolina, one has to have been a delegate to the 2015 state convention, held before Trump even announced his candidacy. These are establishment people. Whoever is chosen for national delegate will have allegiance to the party establishment, and the party establishment is never going to be fond of Donald Trump, a South Carolina GOP insider told Bloombergs Sasha Issenberg.
As Trump continues to expand his lead over Cruz in the delegate count, the establishment must look more appealing than ever to Texass junior senator.
http://www.nationalreview.com/article/433136/republican-contested-convention-favors-ted-cruz-over-donald-trump
Mar 24, 2016 11:10:24 #
LAPhil
Loc: Los Angeles, CA
You know, there's a very simple way all this contested convention hysteria could be avoided, and that would be by having a simple run-off between the top two delegate winners. That way someone gets a majority, and the nomination is decided. Like I said, simple. But that's probably why it will never happen.
Mar 24, 2016 11:15:57 #
JMHO wrote:
b If Trump gets the 1237 delegates, then he shoul... (show quote)
Still stumping for your boy Cruz, eh? Sounds like you're becoming desperate.
Mar 24, 2016 11:19:06 #
LAPhil
Loc: Los Angeles, CA
3jack wrote:
Why do you care? Or are you rooting for Trump because you think he'll be easier to beat in the general?Still stumping for your boy Cruz, eh? Sounds like you're becoming desperate.
Mar 24, 2016 11:30:19 #
JMHO wrote:
b If Trump gets the 1237 delegates, then he shoul... (show quote)
==================
The establishment is trying all means to destroy Trump, to eliminate Trump. They are desperate. Why? Trump does not have cronies to depend on because Trump could survive without the almighty dollar from the rich supporters
of the members of the establishment. The establishment is protecting each other selfish interests, "One for All and All for One". This has been going on for years, and they are now afraid that Trump will clean them up. "You are fired"!
That is why the survival of the establishment is the victory of Cruz, the Canadian citizen and half Cuban born in Canada.
Trump is a full blooded American, with parents and ancestors who have rooted in the United States from England during the early centuries.
It was Cruz just few months before he launched his candidacy for US president, he renounced his Canadian citizenship, and sworn allegiance for US citizen. The constitution's purpose of requiring a natural born citizen is for loyalty and patriotism must be only from the country where his loyalty from generations has been invested.
Trump invested not only his birth and origin. He invested hard work building empire that was good for America because it is the source of America's finances running our corporate government. That is where loyalty of Trump originated, not from partially ambitious foreigner to come and take over to rule over us.
Mar 24, 2016 11:35:35 #
3jack wrote:
Still stumping for your boy Cruz, eh? Sounds like you're becoming desperate.
You libtards should be the desperate ones, since all your bankrupt party can come up with for candidates is an old socialist/borderline c*******t who would make Obama's record shattering doubling of the national debt pale in comparison, and an old hag pathological liar with no accomplishments, except getting four Americans k**led in B******i. Where is all that diversity in your party, pal? Eh? :wink:
Mar 24, 2016 11:42:42 #
LAPhil wrote:
Why do you care? Or are you rooting for Trump because you think he'll be easier to beat in the general?
I'm rooting for either one because I know they are both losers.
Mar 24, 2016 11:48:37 #
JMHO wrote:
You libtards should be the desperate ones, since all your bankrupt party can come up with for candidates is an old socialist/borderline c*******t who would make Obama's record shattering doubling of the national debt pale in comparison, and an old hag pathological liar with no accomplishments, except getting four Americans k**led in B******i. Where is all that diversity in your party, pal? Eh? :wink:
B******i, B******i, B******i, emails, emails, emails, Whitewater, Whitewater, Whitewater, blah, blah, blah, Obama, Obama, Obama, liar, liar, liar, Muslim, Muslim, Muslim, debt, debt, debt, deficit, deficit, deficit....like a phucking broken record repeating the same old bull s**t over and over, knowing that they are all lies. Get a life....ass hat.
Mar 24, 2016 12:06:48 #
LAPhil
Loc: Los Angeles, CA
Radiance3 wrote:
Actually that's not quite correct. His mother was born in Scotland.==================
Trump is a full blooded American, with parents and ancestors who have rooted in the United States from England during the early centuries.
Trump is a full blooded American, with parents and ancestors who have rooted in the United States from England during the early centuries.
Mar 24, 2016 12:24:47 #
3jack wrote:
B******i, B******i, B******i, emails, emails, emails, Whitewater, Whitewater, Whitewater, blah, blah, blah, Obama, Obama, Obama, liar, liar, liar, Muslim, Muslim, Muslim, debt, debt, debt, deficit, deficit, deficit....like a phucking broken record repeating the same old bull s**t over and over, knowing that they are all lies. Get a life....ass hat.
Yeah, the t***h hurts, doesn't it libtard?
Question for you: If Hillary does get elected, keep in mind that it will take huge amounts of v***r f***d to get her elected, and if she somehow escapes criminal charges due to illegal email server and mismanaging classified materials, and she survives all those foreign access buying donations to the Clinton Crime Family Foundation, just how many dead bodies do you expect to start falling around Hillary?
Mar 24, 2016 12:42:42 #
LAPhil wrote:
Actually that's not quite correct. His mother was born in Scotland.
================
It does not matter. She was a US citizen when Trump was born. Long time ago, all our ancestors, except the Native Americans, came from Europe. Then from Asia and other parts of the globe.
The s***ery trades of Muslims to the North Atlantic brought the black population to Europe and the North American continent, and into the US. S***ery in the North Altantic was abolished, emancipated and freely given the pursuit of life, liberty, and happiness. S***es traded to the North Atlantic were lucky. Among the Muslim countries, s***es were k**led as soon as they get older.
The only remaining s***e owners in the world are the Muslims who originally traded s***es and ens***ed Christians then later on raped and k**led.
Muslims are ordered to k**l infidels by their god, for the glory of Islam the religion of peace called by president Obama. Now Muslims are exploding all over the world to k**l infidels for the glory of their god.
Mar 24, 2016 12:53:12 #
JMHO wrote:
Yeah, the t***h hurts, doesn't it libtard?
Question for you: If Hillary does get elected, keep in mind that it will take huge amounts of v***r f***d to get her elected, and if she somehow escapes criminal charges due to illegal email server and mismanaging classified materials, and she survives all those foreign access buying donations to the Clinton Crime Family Foundation, just how many dead bodies do you expect to start falling around Hillary?
Question for you: If Hillary does get elected, keep in mind that it will take huge amounts of v***r f***d to get her elected, and if she somehow escapes criminal charges due to illegal email server and mismanaging classified materials, and she survives all those foreign access buying donations to the Clinton Crime Family Foundation, just how many dead bodies do you expect to start falling around Hillary?
Your skewed opinion does not equate to the t***h, and your determination to make issues out of right wing moronic rants is all for naught. Glad to see you making preemptive excuses for Clinton's inevitable win in November. Maybe the moronic right should engage in v***r f***d in order to win e******ns, eh?.......ass hat.
Mar 24, 2016 14:08:31 #
LAPhil wrote:
You know, there's a very simple way all this contested convention hysteria could be avoided, and that would be by having a simple run-off between the top two delegate winners. That way someone gets a majority, and the nomination is decided. Like I said, simple. But that's probably why it will never happen.
Why the need for a runoff if trump leads the delagate count by a wide margine now and will problably maintain that lead ? The man with the most delagates wins.. But we both know the eleites will do what is best for themselves not a fair outcome of the pepoles choice..
Mar 24, 2016 14:15:50 #
reconreb wrote:
Why the need for a runoff if trump leads the delagate count by a wide margine now and will problably maintain that lead ? The man with the most delagates wins.. But we both know the eleites will do what is best for themselves not a fair outcome of the pepoles choice..
The one with the most delegates going into the convention does not automatically win unless he has the required majority. If not the one who receives the majority v**e of the delegates at the convention wins. Which people's choice counts, the minority who want Trump or the majority who do not?
Mar 24, 2016 16:59:10 #
LAPhil
Loc: Los Angeles, CA
reconreb wrote:
Because it's possible that he could still lose in a runoff. Let's take an example. Say Trump has 1100 delegates, Cruz has 1000, and Kasich has 373 (those numbers should add up to 2473, which is the total number of GOP delegates) going into the first b****t. If the Kasich delegates all v**ed for Cruz in the runoff it would give Cruz 1373 total, which would be more than enough for a majority.Why the need for a runoff if trump leads the delagate count by a wide margine now and will problably maintain that lead ? The man with the most delagates wins.. But we both know the eleites will do what is best for themselves not a fair outcome of the pepoles choice..
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