Dave Loc: Upstate New York

How one can conclude the current administration has had any success in foreign policy escapes real world observation

These Are the Top 10 Risks to the World in 2016

Ian Bremmer @ianbremmer



At the beginning of each year Eurasia Group, the political risk consultancy I founded and oversee, publishes a list of the top 10 political risk stories for the 12 months ahead. These are the risks and trends we believe are most likely to move markets in 2016. We’ve opened the year with a serious spat between Saudi Arabia and Iran, and a horrible day for markets in China. But our #1 risk centers on erosion of the partnership that has provided a lot of global stability over many years.

1.The Hollow Alliance
The t***s-Atlantic partnership has been the world’s most important alliance for nearly seventy years, but it’s now weaker and less relevant than at any point in decades. The U.S. no longer plays a decisive role in addressing any of Europe’s top priorities. Russia’s intervention in Ukraine and the conflict in Syria will expose U.S.-European divisions. As U.S. and European paths diverge, there will be no one to play international fireman—and conflicts particularly in the Middle East will be left to rage.

2. Closed Europe
In 2016, divisions in Europe will reach a critical point as a core conflict emerges between Open Europe and Closed Europe—and a combination of ine******y, refugees, terrorism, and grassroots political pressures pose an unprecedented challenge to the principles on which the European Union was founded. Europe’s open borders will face particular pressure. The risk of Britain’s exit from the E.U. is underestimated. Europe’s economics will hold together in 2016, but its broader meaning and its social fabric will not.


3. The China Footprint
Never has a country at China’s modest level of economic and political development produced such a powerful global footprint. China is the only country of scale today with a global economic strategy. The recognition in 2016 that China is both the most important and most uncertain driver of a series of global outcomes will increasingly unnerve other international players who aren’t ready for it, don’t understand or agree with Chinese priorities, and won’t know how to respond to it.

4. ISIS and “Friends”
The Islamic State of Iraq and Greater Syria is the world’s most powerful terrorist organization, having attracted followers and imitators from Nigeria to the Philippines. But the international response to its rise is inadequate, misdirected, and at cross purposes. For 2016, this problem will prove unfixable, and ISIS and other terrorist organizations friendly to its aims will take advantage of that. The most vulnerable states will remain those with explicit reasons for ISIS to target them (France, Russia, Turkey, Saudi Arabia, and the United States), and those with the largest numbers of unintegrated Sunni Muslims (Iraq, Lebanon, Jordan, Egypt, and across Europe).

5. Saudi Arabia’s Rifts
The Saudi Kingdom faces a growing risk of instability this year, and its increasingly isolated status will lead it to act more aggressively across the Middle East. The threat of intra-royal family discord is on the rise, and a scenario of open conflict — unimaginable prior to King Salman’s January 2015 ascension — has now become entirely realistic. The key source of external Saudi anxiety is Iran, soon to be free of sanctions. Now that the Saudis have executed the kingdom’s top Shia cleric and Iran has responded with open hostility, we can expect an intensification of their proxy conflicts in Syria, Yemen, and elsewhere in the region.



6. The Rise of Technologists
A variety of highly influential non-state actors from the world of technology are entering the realm of politics with unprecedented assertiveness. These newly politically ambitious technologists are numerous and diverse, with profiles ranging from Silicon Valley corporations to hacker groups and retired philanthropists. The political rise of these actors will generate pushback from governments and citizens, generating both policy and market volatility.

7. Unpredictable Leaders
An unusually wide constellation of leaders known for their erratic behavior will make international politics exceptionally volatile this year. Russia’s Vladimir Putin and Turkey’s Recep Tayyip Erdogan are leaders of an unruly pack that includes Saudi Arabia’s Deputy Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman and – to a lesser but important extent – Ukraine’s Petro Poroshenko. These unpredictable leaders make our list for 2016 because their interventions overlap and conflict. One powerful, erratic leader spells trouble; four spell volatility with major international implications.

Scoop Henderson Loc: The Rez, (I am from Egypt)

CORRECTION,,,,American intervention in Ukraine via o*******w of the elected Government.

Bonus, Biden's cocaine snorting kid has a juicy.position at an energy company there.

maryla

By gutting American leadership in the world, Obama certainly has made his presence known!