US Import and Export Prices Down Again: Global Deflation Alert
Jul 15, 2015 16:13:11 #
7/15/15 Global Deflation Alert: US Import and Export Prices Down Again In June
http://davidstockmanscontracorner.com/global-deflation-alert-us-import-and-export-prices-down-again-in-june/?
Another One-Hit Wonder
In spite of counterproductive attempts by the Fed and Central Banks to foster price inflation, debt overhang has stymied those efforts, at least in regards to consumer prices and import/export prices.
Last month, following a surge in gasoline prices, import and export prices did rise a bit, but as with retail sales, the import/export price report was another one-hit wonder.
Missed Boat Again, Bloomberg Econoday Economists again said, missed the boat.

Cross-border deflationary pressures are not abating as import prices fell 0.1 percent in June with export prices down 0.2 percent. Year-on-year, import prices are down 10.0 percent with export prices down 5.7 percent.
These rates are not showing any improvement from prior months with import prices not even getting much of a lift from the bounce back in petroleum prices as the ex-petroleum reading fell 0.2 percent in the month.
Year-on-year, ex-petroleum import prices, and this is a core reading, are down 2.6 percent.
Outside of monthly gains for petroleum components, negative signs sweep both the import and export columns with agricultural exports, at minus 1.5 percent in June, extending a deep run of declines.
Year-on-year, agricultural export prices are down 16.7 percent in what is not good news for the nations farming sector.
A look at finished goods categories shows no price strength anywhere with import prices for capital goods, at a year-on-year minus 1.7 percent, and export prices for consumer goods, at minus 1.9 percent, especially weak.
By country, import prices fell 0.5 percent with the NICs, down 0.4 percent with Japan, and down 0.1 percent with China. Prices rose 0.4 percent for Canada, up 0.2 percent for the EU, and up 0.1 percent for Latin America.
The strength of the dollar is pulling down import prices but the decline in export prices points to a lack of global price pressures.
This report is a reminder that inflation is not yet picking up steam toward the Feds 2 percent goal and hints at similar results for this weeks later releases of producer and consumer prices.

From Mid-March to early May, the price of crude rose from $44.00 to a high of $63.61. Since then, the price of crude is down by about 17%.
Gasoline Futures

From Early March until Mid-June, gasoline futures rose from $1.70 to $2.15. Since then, gasoline futures have fallen about 10%.
Deflationary Pressures Unabated
Economists keep expecting consumers to spend elsewhere what they save on gasoline. Of course the idea that one can save this way is totally absurd.
In practice, consumers have chosen to save, the only way they really can (by not spending in the first place and instead paying down debt).
This is a consequence of a consumer that is still over-leveraged in debt.
And as I have pointed out, it is only sub-prime auto sales that has propped up the consumer economy.
(See Retail Sales Unexpectedly Sink Below the Lowest Economists Estimate). http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com/2015/07/retail-sales-unexpectedly-sink-below.html
T***sitory Tales
Todays import/export and retail sales reports are more flies in the ointment of the expected September rate hike thesis.
The Fed insists the negative first quarter GDP is t***sitory.
Second quarter GDP will indeed rebound, but not as much as previously expected.
Third quarter and fourth quarter will tell the story.
Will the Fed hike before we know how the t***sitory tale ends?
7/15/15 U.S. Import and Export Prices
http://bloomberg.econoday.com/byshoweventfull.asp?fid=467141&cust=bloomberg-us&year=2015&lid=0&prev=/byweek.asp#top
Highlights
Cross-border deflationary pressures are not abating as import prices fell 0.1 percent in June with export prices down 0.2 percent. Year-on-year, import prices are down 10.0 percent with export prices down 5.7 percent.
These rates are not showing any improvement from prior months with import prices not even getting much of a lift from the bounce back in petroleum prices as the ex-petroleum reading fell 0.2 percent in the month.
Year-on-year, ex-petroleum import prices, and this is a core reading, are down 2.6 percent.
Outside of monthly gains for petroleum components, negative signs sweep both the import and export columns with agricultural exports, at minus 1.5 percent in June, extending a deep run of declines.
Year-on-year, agricultural export prices are down 16.7 percent in what is not good news for the nation's farming sector.
A look at finished goods categories shows no price strength anywhere with import prices for capital goods, at a year-on-year minus 1.7 percent, and export prices for consumer goods, at minus 1.9 percent, especially weak.
By country, import prices fell 0.5 percent with the NICs, down 0.4 percent with Japan, and down 0.1 percent with China.
Prices rose 0.4 percent for Canada, up 0.2 percent for the EU, and up 0.1 percent for Latin America.
The strength of the dollar is pulling down import prices but the decline in export prices points to a lack of global price pressures.
This report is a reminder that inflation is not yet picking up steam toward the Fed's 2 percent goal and hints at similar results for this week's later releases of producer and consumer prices.
Recent History Of This Indicator
Import and export prices have been trending deeply in the negative column though headline readings popped higher in May and are expected to show incremental gains in June.
Fed policy makers are waiting for price pressures to stabilize and begin moving to their 2 percent year-on-year goal.
Definition
Import price indexes are compiled for the prices of goods that are bought in the United States but produced abroad and export price indexes are developed for the prices of goods sold abroad but produced domestically.
These prices indicate inflationary trends in internationally traded products.
Why Investors Care
Changes in import and export prices are a valuable gauge of inflation here and abroad.
Furthermore, the data can directly impact the financial markets such as bonds and the dollar.
The bond market is especially sensitive to the risk of importing inflation because it erodes the value of the principal (the original investment) which is paid back when the bond matures.
It also decreases the value of the steady stream of interest rate payments on this type of security.
Inflation leads to higher interest rates and that's bad news for stocks, as well.
By monitoring inflation gauges such as import prices, investors can keep an eye on this menace to their portfolios.
http://davidstockmanscontracorner.com/global-deflation-alert-us-import-and-export-prices-down-again-in-june/?
Another One-Hit Wonder
In spite of counterproductive attempts by the Fed and Central Banks to foster price inflation, debt overhang has stymied those efforts, at least in regards to consumer prices and import/export prices.
Last month, following a surge in gasoline prices, import and export prices did rise a bit, but as with retail sales, the import/export price report was another one-hit wonder.
Missed Boat Again, Bloomberg Econoday Economists again said, missed the boat.

Cross-border deflationary pressures are not abating as import prices fell 0.1 percent in June with export prices down 0.2 percent. Year-on-year, import prices are down 10.0 percent with export prices down 5.7 percent.
These rates are not showing any improvement from prior months with import prices not even getting much of a lift from the bounce back in petroleum prices as the ex-petroleum reading fell 0.2 percent in the month.
Year-on-year, ex-petroleum import prices, and this is a core reading, are down 2.6 percent.
Outside of monthly gains for petroleum components, negative signs sweep both the import and export columns with agricultural exports, at minus 1.5 percent in June, extending a deep run of declines.
Year-on-year, agricultural export prices are down 16.7 percent in what is not good news for the nations farming sector.
A look at finished goods categories shows no price strength anywhere with import prices for capital goods, at a year-on-year minus 1.7 percent, and export prices for consumer goods, at minus 1.9 percent, especially weak.
By country, import prices fell 0.5 percent with the NICs, down 0.4 percent with Japan, and down 0.1 percent with China. Prices rose 0.4 percent for Canada, up 0.2 percent for the EU, and up 0.1 percent for Latin America.
The strength of the dollar is pulling down import prices but the decline in export prices points to a lack of global price pressures.
This report is a reminder that inflation is not yet picking up steam toward the Feds 2 percent goal and hints at similar results for this weeks later releases of producer and consumer prices.

From Mid-March to early May, the price of crude rose from $44.00 to a high of $63.61. Since then, the price of crude is down by about 17%.
Gasoline Futures

From Early March until Mid-June, gasoline futures rose from $1.70 to $2.15. Since then, gasoline futures have fallen about 10%.
Deflationary Pressures Unabated
Economists keep expecting consumers to spend elsewhere what they save on gasoline. Of course the idea that one can save this way is totally absurd.
In practice, consumers have chosen to save, the only way they really can (by not spending in the first place and instead paying down debt).
This is a consequence of a consumer that is still over-leveraged in debt.
And as I have pointed out, it is only sub-prime auto sales that has propped up the consumer economy.
(See Retail Sales Unexpectedly Sink Below the Lowest Economists Estimate). http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com/2015/07/retail-sales-unexpectedly-sink-below.html
T***sitory Tales
Todays import/export and retail sales reports are more flies in the ointment of the expected September rate hike thesis.
The Fed insists the negative first quarter GDP is t***sitory.
Second quarter GDP will indeed rebound, but not as much as previously expected.
Third quarter and fourth quarter will tell the story.
Will the Fed hike before we know how the t***sitory tale ends?
7/15/15 U.S. Import and Export Prices
http://bloomberg.econoday.com/byshoweventfull.asp?fid=467141&cust=bloomberg-us&year=2015&lid=0&prev=/byweek.asp#top
Highlights
Cross-border deflationary pressures are not abating as import prices fell 0.1 percent in June with export prices down 0.2 percent. Year-on-year, import prices are down 10.0 percent with export prices down 5.7 percent.
These rates are not showing any improvement from prior months with import prices not even getting much of a lift from the bounce back in petroleum prices as the ex-petroleum reading fell 0.2 percent in the month.
Year-on-year, ex-petroleum import prices, and this is a core reading, are down 2.6 percent.
Outside of monthly gains for petroleum components, negative signs sweep both the import and export columns with agricultural exports, at minus 1.5 percent in June, extending a deep run of declines.
Year-on-year, agricultural export prices are down 16.7 percent in what is not good news for the nation's farming sector.
A look at finished goods categories shows no price strength anywhere with import prices for capital goods, at a year-on-year minus 1.7 percent, and export prices for consumer goods, at minus 1.9 percent, especially weak.
By country, import prices fell 0.5 percent with the NICs, down 0.4 percent with Japan, and down 0.1 percent with China.
Prices rose 0.4 percent for Canada, up 0.2 percent for the EU, and up 0.1 percent for Latin America.
The strength of the dollar is pulling down import prices but the decline in export prices points to a lack of global price pressures.
This report is a reminder that inflation is not yet picking up steam toward the Fed's 2 percent goal and hints at similar results for this week's later releases of producer and consumer prices.
Recent History Of This Indicator
Import and export prices have been trending deeply in the negative column though headline readings popped higher in May and are expected to show incremental gains in June.
Fed policy makers are waiting for price pressures to stabilize and begin moving to their 2 percent year-on-year goal.
Definition
Import price indexes are compiled for the prices of goods that are bought in the United States but produced abroad and export price indexes are developed for the prices of goods sold abroad but produced domestically.
These prices indicate inflationary trends in internationally traded products.
Why Investors Care
Changes in import and export prices are a valuable gauge of inflation here and abroad.
Furthermore, the data can directly impact the financial markets such as bonds and the dollar.
The bond market is especially sensitive to the risk of importing inflation because it erodes the value of the principal (the original investment) which is paid back when the bond matures.
It also decreases the value of the steady stream of interest rate payments on this type of security.
Inflation leads to higher interest rates and that's bad news for stocks, as well.
By monitoring inflation gauges such as import prices, investors can keep an eye on this menace to their portfolios.
Jul 15, 2015 16:20:39 #
Doc110 wrote:
7/15/15 Global Deflation Alert: US Import and Expo... (show quote)
XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX
BONDS and Derivatives are going to crash in Europe any time....
This house of CARDS the Bankster Geniuses built is wobbling !
get out while you can...
I'm placing bets on the CRASH ...
Jul 15, 2015 17:31:45 #
Look at China, Greece, Ireland, Italy, Egypt, Portugal, Spain, France, Puerto Rico,
This market has fallouts did you see the Graph on China, reminiscent of the the Great Crash in 1929.
This market has fallouts did you see the Graph on China, reminiscent of the the Great Crash in 1929.
Jul 15, 2015 20:28:02 #
Doc110 wrote:
Look at China, Greece, Ireland, Italy, Egypt, Portugal, Spain, France, Puerto Rico,
This market has fallouts did you see the Graph on China, reminiscent of the the Great Crash in 1929.
This market has fallouts did you see the Graph on China, reminiscent of the the Great Crash in 1929.
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
Yes I'm looking at them since last week...
SlimeStreet and the FED say they can contain a global Contagion that it won't happen...
so they Shut off the trading for the whole day and blame it on a Glitch ?
WTF ?
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