jack sequim wa Loc: Blanchard, Idaho

Liberals love to quote Obama, and the "recovering economy, unfortunately lies have yet to produce job's, but has lured the sheeple into a false sense of security. Soon it will prove out that Ferguson and Baltimore are nothing more than a proving ground for Obama, and his t***sformation of America. Every liberal two time obama v**er will go into the history books as contributors to the destruction of America.

The announcement today (April 29) of a barely positive GDP first quarter 2015 growth rate of 0.2 percent (two-tenths of one percent) is an intentional exaggeration.

Today’s GDP report is the “advance estimate.” There will be two revisions, with the first occurring in one month on May 29.

Although the “consensus estimate,” which is Wall Street’s estimate, declined dramatically over the past month, the consensus estimate was for 1.0 percent.

The BEA’s advance estimate bears the burden of impact on financial markets even though it is the least reliable estimate. Subsequent revisions receive much less attention. Because of its market impact, the advance estimate is fudged by the Bureau of Economic Affairs (BEA) in order not to upset financial markets keyed to the consensus forecast.

All indications are that the first quarter experienced negative GDP growth, that is, a decline from the previous quarter. However, if BEA reported a negative GDP when the financial markets were relying on positive real growth, the government’s Plunge Protection Team might be unable to prevent a substantial market decline.

Therefore, the BEA in its advance estimate reported a barely positive result that kept GDP out of negative territory. This gives financial markets a month to undergo an orderly reduction prior to the first and then second revisions of the advance estimate, or simply to forget the poor performance altogether until the second quarter advance estimate.

Maintaining stability and not shocking financial markets is now ingrained in US economic reporting. No government statistical department wants to be blamed for crashing the financial markets. So bad news leaks in slowly if at all.

Indications are that the second quarter 2015 will also have negative GDP growth, that is, a further decline. As John Williams (shadowstats.com) is likely correct that there has been no recovery from the prior recession, just bottom bouncing with stock and bond markets driven by the Fed’s outpouring of liquidity, the first half of 2015 will signal a second downturn in the US economy which is collapsing as a result of jobs offshoring and a deregulated financial system.

The real economic outlook, which will emerge from BEA in a month or two, should be obvious to anyone who had the introductory course to macroeconomics. The economy depends on consumer spending. Consumers have two ways of spending more. One way is from rising incomes. The other way is from rising consumer debt.

With the advent of jobs offshoring, real median family incomes ceased to rise. The ability of consumers to substitute larger debt burdens for the missing growth in their real incomes was used up by Federal Reserve chairman Alan Greenspan’s policy of expanding consumer debt in order to fill in for the missing growth in consumer income. Today consumer debt levels are too high for consumers to incur more debt. The only element of consumer debt showing an increase is student loans.

The offshored jobs were not replaced with the promised “New Economy” jobs. No one has seen any sign of the mythical New Economy jobs. The “New Economy” is the t***sformation of the once powerful US economy into a third world labor force where new jobs exist only in domestic non-tradable services (services that cannot be exported) such as retail clerks, hospital orderlies, waitresses, and bartenders. As there are not enough of these jobs to go around, the labor force participation rate has dropped sharply.

The United States is an economic basket case. Washington has given away the US economy to Asian countries with lower labor costs. The owners and mangers of capital have benefited, but the vast bulk of Americans have suffered. As capital’s owners and managers are not sufficiently numerous to drive the economy with their expenditures, the fabled American economy is no more.

What will bring the US economy out of the second leg of the downturn? If massive federal budget deficits and zero interest rates could not correct the first leg of the downturn, what does fiscal and monetary policy have left in its arsenal?

Weasel Loc: In the Great State Of Indiana!!

How does a stronger dollar weaken the economy?
I never heard that on before. I do not understand.

jack sequim wa Loc: Blanchard, Idaho

Your comment lends a complete lack of understanding of our economic position, global and or macroeconomics. What's driving Wallstreet? What are the effects countries turning from the petro dollar? When the fed has no buyers for T-bills, what happens? When Obama sent over 3.5 Trillion to Wallstreet not mainstreet, what are the effects long term? When the economic data states new home construction is up, yet lumber, concrete, is down what does that mean? When unemployment numbers come out, what is the BLS not telling us about U3 and U6? corporations have been at an all time historic high, buying back their stock, rather than expanding in R&D or brick and mortar, what does that mean? The last seven years there have been more business's close than open, comment's? Please explain if you understand how the policy makers come to use these.
They use key factors in the PDS called BRITS. B =borrowing costs, R=real inflation, I =inflation, T= taxes, S =spending.
R plus I = total value of goods and services produced also call nominal gross domestic product (NGPD)
Taxes minus spending is primary deficit which is the excess of what a country spends to what it collects in taxes (spending doesn't no count interest on national debt)
So deficit is sustainable if economic minus interest expense is greater than the primary deficit. It doesn't much matter what debt is but the trend as a percentage of GDP (to a point, I think we have over extended that point) but this is why experts always say 18 trillion debt doesn't matter.
So when you see the gov. numbers it means basically sustainable looks like this.
(R plus I)-B is greater than IT - SI it is sustainable. If (R plus I) - B is less than IT - SI it is not sustainable.
They make it sound like it is a process that is way to complex for us to ever understand and that is the whole formula used that took them 8 years of college to figure out. But maybe you can explain why a high dollar can exist in negative growth. First it starts with lies, With Fed mouthpiece Jon Hilsenrath warning - in no lesser status-quo narrative-deliverer than The Wall Street Journal - that The ECB's actions (and pre-emptive collapse in the EUR) means the U.S. economy must deal with a rapidly strengthening dollar that will make American goods more expensive abroad, potentially slowing both U.S. growth and inflation; and Treasury Secretary Lew coming out his crypt to mention "unfair FX moves," it appears The Fed (and powers that be) are worrying about King Dollar. This suggests, as Mises Canada's Patrick Barron predicts, the Fed will start charging negative interest rates on bank reserve accounts as the final tool in the war on savings and wealth in order to spur the Keynesian goal of increasing “aggregate demand”. If savers won’t spend their money, the government will take it from them.
Lastly in a sentence, the stronger dollar can be better explained when looking at world currencies, oil, and the major players ...Bank's.

Richard94611

He will probably say that when the dollar is "stronger," people in foreign countries have to pay more in their local currency to buy goods made in the USA, and that they will switch because of this to cheaper goods made elsewhere, and that this will reduce our exports and diminish the volume of trade we have with other countries.

dwallace2015

You have to know that Emperor Obama's first agenda is the collapse of America's economy. Why else talk of "The North American Union"?
The arrogant bastards have already printed and stockpiled new money, "Called the AMERO, you know like the EURO". This will happen immediately after Emperor Obama has declared "Martial Law" and finished taking what's left of our civil rights by the expedient of wh**ever "Emergency" he and his toadies have contrived to foist upon America. If one happens prior to this then he will have plausible deniability to proceed unopposed.

Remember, Obama is Islamic. A sworn and avowed enemy of the United States and all freedom loving individuals.

MarksDaman Loc: USA

Just out of curiosity what determines the value of the U.S. Dollar?

jelun

That is true, but two months ago the complaint was that President Obama was ruining the value of the US dollar.
This is also true, the global economy is shaky.
Caution is natural in this climate.
Private corporations drive the economy...next hue and cry the age old complaint about regulations.
Nothing new.
Uncertainty makes decisions harder to make and greed makes for risk aversion. Manipulations in the f****l f**l market make for tough situation assessment as well.

MarksDaman Loc: USA

And if none of this comes to pass ,what will they say about you personally?
You know for spreading the baseless crap.

MarksDaman Loc: USA

:thumbup:

MarksDaman Loc: USA

:thumbup:

jelun

The poster will be a hero, naturally, for making sure that the conservative base helped to avert the Obama Takeover.
HAHAHAA, look at Texass, Gov. Greg Abbott calling out the TSG to observe military maneuvers. What a bunch of paranoid tools.

pafret Loc: Northeast

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Smoke, mirrors and manipulation by the Federal reserve. Our money has no intrinsic value, it is Fiat money based on perception only. When lies fail and blind faith vanishes so will any wealth in stocks, bonds or dollars

Pulfnick Loc: Knoxville, TN

Have you looked in the mirror lately? "Your comment lends a complete lack of understanding of our economic position, global and or macroeconomics."

Babsan

It is common knowledge that the DEMOCRATS/NEW C*******T PARTY don't have a clue when it comes to economy and economics.They only repeat the "lines" coming out of the Muslim Plant Fraud's mouth and his goons

Loki Loc: Georgia

Good question. Here is a link or two.
http://ed.ted.com/lessons/what-gives-a-dollar-bill-its-value-doug-levinson

http://www.investopedia.com/articles/forex/09/factors-drive-american-dollar.asp



http://useconomy.about.com/od/inflationfaq/p/Value-Of-Money.htm