President Biden is almost certain to be Democrats' pick for president in 2024, but he might not win the first two contests of the primary season if they're in the traditional first-to-v**e states of Iowa and New Hampshire — a scenario that seems increasingly likely.
Driving the news: Biden's team is indicating he won't be on the b****ts in those states if they v**e before South Carolina, his choice to have the first primary.
Why it matters: Democrats in Iowa and New Hampshire could defy Biden and move ahead with their contests — even as the party warns it will strip them of their national convention delegates if they jump the gun.
That sets up a scenario in which Robert F. Kennedy Jr. or another long-shot Democrat could win those states — and embarrass the president.
State of play: Since Biden’s surprise decision last December to make South Carolina the first state in Democrats' 2024 season with a primary on Feb. 3, New Hampshire Democrats have openly bashed the White House and the Democratic National Committee.
The new calendar put New Hampshire and Nevada v****g second — a few days after South Carolina — but New Hampshire Democrats note that their state law requires them to have the nation's first primary, and many vow to keep it that way.
Iowa Democrats haven't been as publicly hostile over Biden's move. But in the past two months they've quietly moved to hold their contest the same day as Iowa Republicans — in January, but with a mail-in option for b****ts.
That could put Iowa first on the Democrats' calendar — but New Hampshire lawmakers and party officials have signaled they may then attempt to move ahead of Iowa.
In touting South Carolina to kick off the primary season, Biden’s team has said it wanted v****g to start in a racially diverse state to give minorities more of a say in early p**********l contests.
New Hampshire was about 87% white in the 2020 Census, while Iowa was about 83% white. South Carolina was about 62% white.
Biden also has fond memories of South Carolina, where his primary victory in 2020 propelled him to the Democratic nomination. He has struggled in Iowa and New Hampshire contests in the past, and his team saw political security in pushing for South Carolina to v**e first.
Between the lines: Top Iowa and New Hampshire Democrats fume that the DNC’s lengthy process for determining the primary calendar — which included long written proposals, presentations, and travel — felt like needless theater for a pre-determined outcome.
Biden’s proposed calendar stunned many top Democrats — even DNC chair Jamie Harrison, who is from South Carolina, said he wasn't given a heads-up before the decision.
https://www.axios.com/2023/06/15/iowa-new-hampshire-biden-lose-2024-primaries-e******nPresident Biden is almost certain to be Democrats'... (