DASHY wrote:
I was not defending Doctor Cutsinger's scholarly article on government spending. I offered it to demonstrate how an economic research professor views the topic of inflation. The causes of inflation are complicated, including the affect of government policy. To say that Biden caused inflation is a political MAGA claim, not to be taken seriously.
The following article from VOX, a left-leaning source disputes what you say regarding Biden causing inflation. It started with his $1.9 Trillion American Rescue Plan shortly after the country was starting to come out of the economic throes of the P******c after Trump's $2.3Trillion C***d relief spending package.
https://www.vox.com/23036340/biden-american-rescue-plan-inflationThe criticisms of the American Rescue Plan
The case that the American Rescue Plan contributed to inflation has three parts: its size, its timing, and the details of its spending.
First, the size: $1.9 trillion. Many economic analysts at the time argued that this was too big. saying their models showed so much new spending (on top of trillions already spent) wasn’t necessary to stimulate the economy, and risked overheating it and causing inflation. “I was on the expansionary side of every fiscal debate of my life up until last year,” said Furman. “But quantities matter. It can’t just be that more is better.”
In early 2021, a group of 10 Republican senators had proposed a $618 billion stimulus as a counteroffer to Biden’s. But Democrats, haunted by what they believed to have been policy mistakes from the Obama administration, rejected this, and decided going as big as they could was preferable to possibly spending too little.
“The sweet spot, I think, might have been a $300-500 billion American Rescue Plan,” said Strain. “That could have given us a lot of the benefits of the ARP without sparking such rapid price growth. The ARP was so big that the kind of marginal dollar went to inflation, not to increased economic output.”
Second was timing: that money was mostly spent quickly (about half was spent last year), rather than spread out over a longer period of time. This sent a lot of money flowing into the economy last year — which was the goal — except supply couldn’t keep up, and prices rose.
Third was composition: what the plan included. Much of the ARP’s spending did quite a lot to help people in need, with child poverty and child hunger falling. But other parts were not well-targeted. $350 billion was allotted to state and local governments under the outdated assumption that they’d be facing budget crises, but by early 2021 it was already clear most states weren’t facing such crises. (The White House official argued that while many states might not have needed the money, cities still did, and that these funds have been spent more slowly, so they probably haven’t contributed to inflation much yet.)
The checks were another issue. Birthed out of a political promise Democrats made to one-up Trump and try to win the Georgia Senate runoffs, the checks totaled about $400 billion in spending, and some of them went to families whose finances were already in fine shape. Giving money to people who don’t need it isn’t necessarily a bad thing in and of itself. But if the consequences are higher inflation and economic woes affecting everyone, well, it is a big deal.
“Had we made the checks smaller and more targeted, and spread out over time. I think we would’ve had less unwelcome inflation and a slower recovery in real activity,” said Edelberg. “That’s probably a trade-off, in retrospect, that would’ve been a good one to take.”
Meanwhile, the plan’s anti-poverty benefits proved to be temporary, when the expanded child tax credit expired at the end of 2021. Democrats had hoped to extend it further in the Build Back Better legislation, but Sen. Joe Manchin (D-WV) effectively k**led that bill last December, citing inflation concerns. Manchin was always skeptical about the expanded child tax credit on the merits, but rising inflation surely didn’t help Democrats’ case for further big spending.
Good intentions don’t always make good policies
High inflation is now here, and the worse and more persistent inflation is, the more likely it is that the Fed will raise rates to get it under control, and cause a recession.
It’s true that the American Rescue Plan wasn’t the primary cause of today’s inflation. But if inflation was always going to be a problem, then it’s important to avoid policies that could make it a much worse problem.
In retrospect, it seems that Democrats simply didn’t take this seriously enough back in early 2021. They wrongly concluded that a stimulus far in excess of what models said was necessary was the less risky option. They thought they were still in the “money printer go brrr” era, where there was less pressure to be judicious about where that money was going — so instead of targeting help to those who needed it, they sent hundreds of billions of dollars to well-off Americans and states doing just fine, for political reasons.