Hillary was polling better than Biden at this point…
Oct 19, 2020 17:29:12 #
Do me a favor: don’t listen to the media when they tell you Joe Biden is winning the p**********l race by a large margin.
Back in 2016, people would laugh hysterically when some predicted a Trump win at a time when Hillary Clinton was allegedly leading in the polls by up to 13 points. The MSM pundits thought that they were just being good GOP soldiers and whistling past the graveyard. In fact, in 2020 the enthusiasm has INCREASED for Trump since 2016. And when those 2016 polls were examined and you knew that when you have to oversample Democrats by, to cite one example, up to 24 points to get Hillary a five-point lead, she was in trouble.
The polls you’re hearing about now that forecast a Biden landslide also oversample Democrats. But polling insiders say they’ve found other ways to skew the results.
One old reliable tactic is to poll only registered v**ers and not likely v**ers. A more creative way is balancing the Democrat-Republican sample, by avoiding rural Democrats who are likely to support Trump and polling suburban female Republicans who are more likely to support Biden. And then there’s the unknown factor of the “shy Trump v**er:” people who refuse to tell pollsters that they back Trump because they’re afraid it will leak and crazy/angry Democrats will attack them the way they vandalize cars with Trump stickers. But when they’re in the privacy of the v****g booth, they will relish v****g for Trump in anticipation of the crybullies’ E******n Night meltdowns. Nobody knows how big that v**e is, but I would guess “substantial.”
I assume the idea behind this kind of dishonest polling is to demoralize Trump supporters and make them think they can’t win so why bother v****g? I don’t see that happening. I think most Trump v**ers are so s**k of the opposition’s endless tantrums and slanders that they would crawl over broken glass to v**e for Trump. The biased media have actually harmed the Democrats in many past e******ns. They get intellectually lazy from never being challenged, so in debates, Republicans who constantly have to defend their ideas eat them alive. And in this case, the skewed polls might make their v**ers complacent and convince them that they don’t need to v**e. A lot of dead people may v**e for Biden, but it won’t be because they rose from their graves to v**e out of enthusiasm for him.
Finally, for those who think I’m just whistling past the graveyard again (if I am, it’s the graveyard where the pollsters’ credibility is buried), check this out:
Someone went back and found Hillary Clinton’s poll lead in key swing states in the Real Clear Politics average of polls on October 10, 2016, and compared it to Biden’s lead on the same date in 2020. In every case, Hillary was polling better than Biden is now. And in every case, Trump went on to win that state.
With less than three weeks to go, I am asking you to stay strong in your support for the President and Republican candidates.
Back in 2016, people would laugh hysterically when some predicted a Trump win at a time when Hillary Clinton was allegedly leading in the polls by up to 13 points. The MSM pundits thought that they were just being good GOP soldiers and whistling past the graveyard. In fact, in 2020 the enthusiasm has INCREASED for Trump since 2016. And when those 2016 polls were examined and you knew that when you have to oversample Democrats by, to cite one example, up to 24 points to get Hillary a five-point lead, she was in trouble.
The polls you’re hearing about now that forecast a Biden landslide also oversample Democrats. But polling insiders say they’ve found other ways to skew the results.
One old reliable tactic is to poll only registered v**ers and not likely v**ers. A more creative way is balancing the Democrat-Republican sample, by avoiding rural Democrats who are likely to support Trump and polling suburban female Republicans who are more likely to support Biden. And then there’s the unknown factor of the “shy Trump v**er:” people who refuse to tell pollsters that they back Trump because they’re afraid it will leak and crazy/angry Democrats will attack them the way they vandalize cars with Trump stickers. But when they’re in the privacy of the v****g booth, they will relish v****g for Trump in anticipation of the crybullies’ E******n Night meltdowns. Nobody knows how big that v**e is, but I would guess “substantial.”
I assume the idea behind this kind of dishonest polling is to demoralize Trump supporters and make them think they can’t win so why bother v****g? I don’t see that happening. I think most Trump v**ers are so s**k of the opposition’s endless tantrums and slanders that they would crawl over broken glass to v**e for Trump. The biased media have actually harmed the Democrats in many past e******ns. They get intellectually lazy from never being challenged, so in debates, Republicans who constantly have to defend their ideas eat them alive. And in this case, the skewed polls might make their v**ers complacent and convince them that they don’t need to v**e. A lot of dead people may v**e for Biden, but it won’t be because they rose from their graves to v**e out of enthusiasm for him.
Finally, for those who think I’m just whistling past the graveyard again (if I am, it’s the graveyard where the pollsters’ credibility is buried), check this out:
Someone went back and found Hillary Clinton’s poll lead in key swing states in the Real Clear Politics average of polls on October 10, 2016, and compared it to Biden’s lead on the same date in 2020. In every case, Hillary was polling better than Biden is now. And in every case, Trump went on to win that state.
With less than three weeks to go, I am asking you to stay strong in your support for the President and Republican candidates.
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