dtucker300 Loc: Vista, CA

https://www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/trump-e******n-prospects-biden-c***d19-by-michael-spence-and-david-w-brady-2020-08?utm_source=Hoover+Daily+Report&utm_campaign=af5336e8c5-EMAIL_CAMPAIGN_2020_08_04_06_08&utm_medium=email&utm_term=0_21b1edff3c-af5336e8c5-73895885

C****-** Is Beating Trump
Aug 3, 2020
MICHAEL SPENCE
,
DAVID W. BRADY
US President Donald Trump's mishandling of the C****-** crisis has depleted his support among independents and moderates – the groups that will decide the November e******n. And with the v***s raging out of control, he has no good options.

MILAN/STANFORD – Given the stark differences between US President Donald Trump and Joe Biden, his presumptive Democratic challenger, the outcome of the November p**********l e******n will have far-reaching implications not only for the United States, but also for the rest of the world. So should we brace for four more years of Trump, or is change coming?

In today’s highly polarized environment, committed v**ers from either party are unlikely to switch sides. But there are too few such v**ers on either side to clinch the e******n. This means that moderates and especially self-identified independents will make all the difference. From this perspective, Trump appears to be in trouble.

This was not the case just five months ago, when the C****-** crisis first erupted in the US. At the time, Italy – with its overwhelmed hospitals, strict economic lockdown, and devastated economy – was dominating headlines. The US had no restrictions in place, and its health system was managing just fine.

This seems to have created the impression that the US was managing the crisis well. As Table 1 shows, Trump’s overall approval ratings rose in March, with a significant share of not only Republicans and moderates, but also Democrats and independents approving of his v***s response.


Since then, however, C****-** infections and deaths have skyrocketed in the US, and the Trump administration has done little to address the problem. On the contrary, some in the administration have attempted to undermine Anthony F***i, the country’s top infectious disease expert, and Trump steadfastly refused to wear a face mask, even ridiculing Biden for doing so.

Meanwhile, unemployment has soared, and while some protections for workers and businesses were introduced, many expect a wave of evictions following the expiration of those measures. GDP contracted by 9.5% in the second quarter, or 32.9% year on year – the worst performance since 1947.

Not surprisingly, v**er attitudes have shifted dramatically. As Table 2 shows, from the end of March to mid-July, approval of both Trump’s overall performance and his handling of the C****-** crisis declined among all groups. For moderates in both parties, the swing is medium to large. For independents – whose v****g patterns are significant determinants of outcomes in swing states – the shift was very large.


As disapproval of Trump and his C****-** response has grown, so has the number of Americans who plan to v**e for Biden in November. As Table 3 shows, from late March to mid-July, the number of independents who intend to v**e for Biden increased by a striking 23%. The number of self-identified Democrats who support Biden also increased modestly – by 4% – while the number of Republicans planning to v**e for Trump declined by 3%.


The C****-** crisis is not the only factor influencing support for Biden. But it is a highly significant one. If one runs a regression with conventional factors to account for the varying issues and dynamics at play, the C****-** crisis – including presumably its health and economic dimensions – accounts for about 20% of the change from March to July.


Among the 84% of Republicans who approve of Trump’s handling of the C****-** crisis, 97% say they will v**e for him. Among the 15% who disapprove in July, however, only 40% plan to v**e for him, while, as Table 4 shows, 36% plan to v**e for Biden – an 8% increase since late March.

Among the 25% of moderates who approve of Trump’s C****-** response, 85% will v**e for him. But of the 75% who disapprove, just 7% plan to v**e for him.

As for independents, as Table 4 shows, 68% disapproved of Trump’s handling of C****-** in July, a 25% increase since March. Of these, 64% intend to v**e for Biden. Only 11% of independents who disapprove of Trump’s C****-** response plan to v**e for him. Eighty percent of the 43% of independents who do approve of Trump’s response plan to v**e for him.


In sum, Trump is losing among independents and moderates, owing to his handling of the p******c. But three months is a long time in e*******l politics, and Trump seems to be trying to turn things around. In late July, he resumed regular C****-** briefings, began promoting mask wearing, and canceled the Republican National Convention celebrations scheduled for August in Jacksonville, Florida.


Yet it is far from clear whether this will be enough – and not only because Trump has nonetheless continued to tout “alternative facts” about C****-**. One of the key lessons from the rest of the world is that a rapid response is critical to contain the v***s and to minimize the economic damage. The Trump administration’s response continues to be anything but rapid.

Another lesson is that restricting mobility and travel within a country is essential to contain outbreaks. When northern Italy was wracked by C****-**, the government halted all non-essential inter-regional travel, in order to protect other regions from similar outbreaks. In the US, by contrast, such decisions were left up to state governors, only a few of whom belatedly imposed travel restrictions.

With outbreaks spinning out of control in several states, stronger action to protect public health is needed. The economic costs will depend partly on how strict such measures are. But with many people unlikely to resume normal economic activities until the v***s is contained, there is no question that US leaders – beginning with Trump – face a stark choice.

Neither option is attractive. A lockdown would ravage an economy that is already cratering, while rejecting a lockdown would most likely merely prolong the pain. Either way, it is safe to say that Trump’s loss will almost certainly be Biden’s gain.


Trump can claim, rightly, that unlike, say, the 2008 global financial crisis, the C****-** p******c did not result from internal policy lapses. But it was exacerbated by them. The US compares unfavorably with many other developed countries on p******c performance, to the extent that the country’s already-diminished global standing has taken a serious hit. While this may not be a major concern for most Americans today, this could change if international restrictions on US travelers persist. In any case, Trump will be battling uphill until November.

JW

BigMike Loc: yerington nv

Not likely.

dtucker300 Loc: Vista, CA

I sure hope you're correct.




What or Who Decides This E******n?
By VICTOR DAVIS HANSON
About Victor Davis Hanson
Follow Victor Davis Hanson On Twitter
August 4, 2020 6:30 AM


Former Vice President Joe Biden speaks during a campaign event in Wilmington, Del., July 14, 2020. (Leah Millis/Reuters)
C***D progress, r**t fatigue, Durham indictments, Biden’s brain . . . By November, several factors may be trending in Trump’s favor — if he lets them.
NRPLUS MEMBER ARTICLE
We know where to watch in the next few weeks but have no real idea what we will be watching. Yet pundits, the media, and the Left seem giddy that their polls show a Trump slump, as if they have learned nothing and forgotten nothing from 2016. But in t***h, the news cycle over the next three months may well favor Trump — a scenario his opponents no doubt deem preposterous in these dog days of August.

1. The v***s. The c****av***s is like an out-of-control grass fire. It dies down only to flare up without much predictability — making fools of yesterday’s experts, proving them yet again today’s geniuses, only to render them i***ts tomorrow.

Trump’s polls climbed in May when it looked as if the vicious v***s was waning. But after the public relaxed its guard, or protesters gathered for much of June in massive demonstrations that were politically correct mockeries of social distancing, masks, and disinfects, or the v***s got its natural second wind, it caught fire again — and abroad as well.

If by October remedies have improved, v******tions are in final trials, care has been honed to reduce the death rate, then the president will be rewarded for getting the nation through the disaster. If it spikes yet again or mutates into a more lethal strain, or if the lethality rate soars in October, then he will be blamed at the polls. In some sense, the v***s’s course is beyond human control; the key, however, is how the president reacts to its metamorphoses. If well, Biden’s ankle-biting will seem shrill; if not so well, Biden’s generalities and his reverse copycatting the president’s directives and c****av***s policies will seem sober and judicious.

2. The lockdown/quarantine. Depending on how poll questions are framed, most Americans either want to take their chances and get back to work, or they care little about the data and simply are terrified of C****-**.

If the schools stay shut down, millions of children will suffer untold harm, and millions of parents will be unable to return fully to work. The medical and financial fallout will have grave collective economic implications. If schools do open, and the v***s is manageable, then the administration will be seen as prescient. If the contagion somehow spikes during the return to schools, or is presented as spiking by the media, Trump will be dubbed a reckless Typhoid Mary. Biden’s v***l policies are simply to oppose wh**ever Trump does. So Biden’s risks are that when the v***s wanes, he will have already ceded Trump responsibility — and thus credit — for its diminution.

3. The economy. It is hard to see how the economy ascends and returns on track to its pretrial boom before E******n Day, at least until herd immunity increases or the v***s either wanes naturally, becomes a treatable disease, or is eliminated by a v*****e — or all of the above. The e******n may hinge on whether any of those variables appears viable by November. If they are, people will spend and produce in confidence that the end is in sight; if the v***s is still considered lethal and terrifying, then the economy will stay flat — at a time of a $4-trillion-plus annual deficit. Again, the Biden basement strategy of having Trump own the v***s, lockdown, and economy may now seem wise, given the chaos of the summer and Biden’s own cognitive issues. But 90 days is a long time, and all three trends could reverse course and improve, which according to the logic of Biden himself, would then be Trump’s doing.

4. The r**ts. We at nearing peak Jacobinism, the point where the public is growing tired of A****a/B*M and skeptical about the surreal Democratic denial in which the endless violence, vandalism, l**ting, k*****gs, injuries, and statue-toppling are described as “intensified peaceful protests,” or the work of only a “small number of lawbreakers.” The continuance of anarchy and chaos is being politically leveraged to create a general sense of civil unrest purportedly caused by Trump’s controversial nature. The Democratic strategy is to have protests that are violent enough to frighten the public, but not quite violent enough to destroy daily life, so swing v**ers will go into a collective fetal position, hands over ears, and shout that if they just v**e out Trump, “it will all go away.”

But if A****a/B*M intensify or just continue the violence — Bible-burning is the latest addition to their repertoire — more police are k**led or injured, and the Democrats keep denying the obvious, it could be a disaster for the Left. Calling violence a “myth” is a myth that no sane person believes. Biden has no idea how many inner-city folk depend on a funded police force, how many in the heartland want to watch their sports without lectures, how many suburbanites liked the downed Columbus or Grant or Drake statue in their cities, and how many working Democrats don’t like having their commute freeway shut down by the obnoxious prolonged adolescents of A****a. There are so many facets to the cultural revolution that the Democratic policy of accepting them all in toto can alienate lots of swing v**ers


5. The Durham indictments. The Democrats are paranoid that Durham might indict enough FBI or DOJ employees — and flip one or two who will testify against their peers for immunity — to boomerang the Russia-collusion h**x before the e******n. Depending on whom Durham indicts, how many, and how much more incriminating information ensues, Trump will be able to remind the public of the unprecedented corruption in the Obama administration and the role of Joe Biden in aiding and abetting the constitutional abuse.

If Durham indicts no one before the e******n, the public will shrug that the Russian h**x was a h**x but more of a Keystone Kops caper rather than an existential threat aimed at the presidency of a constitutional republic. But if during the last 30 days of the e******n cycle, Durham’s indictments reveal serial lawlessness, then Biden — a member of the Obama/FBI/DOJ inner anti-Trump circle — will hemorrhage.

6. Joe Biden’s cognitive challenges. Joe Biden masterfully has been able to conduct a teleprompted Zoom/Skype, virtual campaign from his basement, and an occasional press conference with a few preselected questions to toadyish reporters.

He assumes there will be no convention, no stump speech, no hostile interviews — and prays for no debates. Biden may pull all that off, depending on the course of the v***s over the next 90 days — and his own polls. If in such scripted appearances he appears just occasionally confused, as during the abbreviated primary season, or slurs his words, or at times goes off topic, his health will probably be a major issue, but not a deciding one.

However, if by October Biden is campaigning in traditional style, giving impromptu interviews and emulating Trump’s ubiquity, then there are real chances of deer-in the-headlights pivotal moments of utter confusion that could be determinative — given that their ubiquity could not be covered up by the pro-Biden media.

The key here is to watch Trump polls. If they linger at 42–43 positive in the RealClearPolitics averages, then Biden remains a virtual candidate. If Trump nears the 45–48 favorable range, Biden will be forced to emerge, and that could become catastrophic. Remember, Trump can be edgy, controversial, and unpopular, but selecting Biden as the nominee was the most reckless move the Democrats have pulled off in a generation. As Churchill said of the one figure in World War I who governed the fate of the omnipotent British fleet, Admiral Jellicoe: “Jellicoe was the only man on either side who could lose the war in an afternoon.” So too Biden is the only candidate who could lose his party everything in an hour or so.

7. The vice-p**********l se******n. Biden is in a dilemma. Pick one of the more accomplished African-American women, such as Susan Rice and Kamala Harris, and both are likely already vetted and enjoy name recognition. Before the current cultural revolution, both were considered left-wing Democrats, but in the Hillary Clinton mode, rather than in the Bernie Sanders extremist school. So they would be the safer se******ns. But would they satisfy the Sanders wing? And in the past, have they been on good terms with Biden?

Or will Biden have to go the full B*M route with a less vetted Stacey Abrams or Karen Bass or some other hardcore l*****t, with an even harder l*****t past, that will cement his coalition, but turn off swing v**ers — especially if the violence both continues and is contextualized if not supported by his running mate? Republicans no doubt prefer the latter scenario. And the harder left-wing the se******n, the more likely it is that Biden will seem at the mercy of the manipulative A****a/B*M militant wing of the party — as an encouraged Angela Davis herself pointed out.

The current left-wing ad “Settling for Biden” is one of the most counterproductive in memory because it confirms the cynicism of the hard left and the lack of enthusiasm for the mediocre Biden. It clearly suggests that his e******n would be merely a door for the left-wing seizure of power later on. In other words, Biden’s VP pick could be a lose/lose choice. B*M is riding high now, but it and A****a, with help from the media and professional sports, are turning off millions with their nonstop accusations and smears. And all that could crest in November.


8. Trumps mercurial tweeting. Trump is frustrated that he has been the target of a three-year slow-motion c**p: the v****g-machine lawsuit, the failed impeachment 1.0, the emoluments clause, Logan Act charade, the Mueller/collusion h**x, Ukraine and impeachment, followed by Trump’s being smeared as the plague-spreader, the lockdown meister, the economic wrecker.

In his angst, he tweets, he rails, he screams — and wrongly asks about a possible delayed e******n, due to the quite likely fraud that would follow an unprecedented b****t-by-mail e******n. Thereby, he then can alienate the ripe, low-h*****g swing v**er ready to be picked.

In contrast, when Trump talks empathetically of the need for police to protect the vulnerable or sticks to the details of the contagion in his press conference, he gradually regains popularity.

If he lets the natural news cycle do its work, then he will rediscover that it is trending in his direction. Indeed, the evidence of such a turnabout is already evident. But as time wanes, Trump has almost no margin of error and must maintain 24/7 discipline to allow all of the above to play out.

These turning points have been anti-Trump since mid June. But they are starting to change, ever so slowly and insidiously. And if they continue, and Trump lets them continue, then by November almost all of them will be in Trump’s favor.

Sicilianthing

>>>

You just starting to catch onto this tucker ?
Just now realizing what I’ve been saying for 2 months... ?
I told you before and you can find it several times here on OPP that if Trump doesn’t open the Economy Full 100% open he’s lose...

Regardless of the P*******c or all that other crap... I dont care....

He’s toast... and so are all your plans about him winning.

dtucker300 Loc: Vista, CA

You have a one-track mind as if you are floating down "denial river" without a paddle.

Sicilianthing

>>>

Can you elaborate please ?

I’m in the middle of multiple screens, apps, projects, sites and discussions over here so I need you to be a little more specific please.

Lt. Rob Polans ret.

C***D beating Trump? No, the sheep who believe all the h**xes. If they simply said 'Enough' and threw their masks away I would respect them again. I don't expect people to go to the lengths I have. Shelter? Why? No matter what you've been told that is mind control.

Geezer117

dtucker300 --- You make accusations about Trump's actions regarding C***D, but supply not one example of what you object to.

F***i and his team admit that Trump accepted all of their major recommendations. Are you saying he shouldn't have?

Trump blocked international travel into the USA when the Democrats were all against that action. F***i now admits that saved lives. Are you saying he should have acted earlier, or he should not have done it?

Trump supplied all the support requested by the states--ventilators, military hospitals, a Navy hospital ship, etc. The governors, even Cuomo, praised Trump's responsiveness. Are you saying Trump shouldn't have?

The previous severe respiratory c****av***s epidemic, in 1986, had the US NIH, coincidentally run by F***i, concluding that hydroxychloroquine was an effective treatment, "before and after infection". The government's studies were reported that way in the Journal of V******y.
When Trump merely suggested that HCQ is worth trying, the hyperventilating Democrats immediately denounced HCQ as "ineffective and dangerous". It is neither, and hasn't ever been dangerous in the 65 years it has been widely used around the world for many ailments, and in other countries for the treatment of C***D.
It's a certainty that many people have died unnecessarily because of governors' bans on HCQ for C***D.
Are you saying that is Trump's fault? That if he just hadn't mentioned HCQ, then it could have been used to save lives?

Prior to C***D, all the accepted epidemiological judgements were that shutdowns were of no use and were ill advised because of the great harm done to the economy and society. The C***D shutdown proves those judgements to be true.
Trump refused to order a national shutdown, but left it up to the governors to act in their own states. The governors are to blame for the massive unemployment, the bankruptcy of hundreds of thousands of businesses, the depressions and suicides, and adding $5 trillion to the national debt.
The uselessness of shutdowns to control flu v***ses is confirmed by the fact that, now that shutdowns are eased, infection rates are up but the death rate is falling drastically compared to when the shutdowns were in effect.
Are you blaming Trump for all the harm done by the shutdowns AND for not shutting down the entire nation's economy and keeping it shut down?

Nearly half of C***D deaths happened in nursing homes. It was governors who ordered elderly C***D positive patients to be sent to nursing homes. It was governors who banned HCQ treatment in nursing homes. Had those mistakes not been made, C***D deaths would be far smaller than actually happened.
Are you blaming Trump for what those governors did?

The death rate for children under 19 is tiny, near zero in many places. Even F***i admits (belatedly) that school children are not vectors for t***smission of C***D and not at significant risk of contracting it. The experience of other nations that did not shut their schools confirms these realizations.
Governors closed the schools. Democrats and teachers' unions demand that schools remain shut down. The political motivation is obvious--the coming e******n.
Do you blame Trump for the schools being closed? Do you object to Trump opening schools in September?

Haphazard accusations are always easy. How about you put yourself on the record--what actions taken or not taken by Trump do you condemn?

Sicilianthing

>>>

How’s this ?

Geezer117

Right on target!

Sicilianthing

>>>

Spread the word.

dtucker300 Loc: Vista, CA

I'm not even going to read your entire response because I made no such accusations and I seriously doubt that you read the entire posts. That being said, these are the opinions of MICHAEL SPENCE and DAVID W. BRADY as well as VICTOR DAVIS HANSON. They rpovide better analysis and documentation that you do with your statement, none of which I disagree with, by the way. You follow each with a several questions that are fallacies of begging the question, false dichotomies, faulty anology, equivocation, fallacy of composition, fallacy of division, genetic fallacy, and appeal to the masses, an appeal to ignorance, and post hoc, ergo propter hoc (false cause), nott necessarilt in the order.

I see you have only just joined OPP and already looking for a fight. You would be better served by sticking to what is actually written and argue the issue at hand instead of projecting you biases onto others.

the J man Loc: California

NO Trump beat Trump plain and simple, his slow response and claiming it was a h**x and it was totally under control is what is beating him.

BigMike Loc: yerington nv

You're high on Turkish Delight. You need a balanced diet.

Trump hasn't beat Trump and the people telling you so are desperate liars who have been involved in spreading s*******s crap since T***p w*n the primary. Do you honestly expect them to tell you their house is on fire...they've been lying like rugs every day...that no one gets that kind of negativity by being bad...the media loved bad boys? Think!