ldsuttonjr Loc: ShangriLa

Why the Polls Predict Trump Will Win | The American Spectator
Lately, pollsters and pundits have been nervously pondering the following question: “If Trump is behind in the polls, why do most v**ers say, in the same surveys, that he will win the upcoming e******n?” As Harry Enten recently noted at CNN, “An average of recent polls finds that a majority of v**ers (about 55%) believe that Trump will defeat Biden in the e******n. Trump’s edge on this question has remained fairly consistent over time.” This is far more than mere statistical curiosity by number nerds. Several peer-reviewed studies have shown that surveys of v**er expectations are far more predictive of e******n outcomes than polls of v**er intentions.

V**er expectations concerning who would win a given e******n were consistently more predictive than surveys using only conventional polling questions.
The polls that appear to portend a one-term presidency for Trump actually predict that the president will trounce Biden badly this November.

According to studies conducted by researchers in the United States and in Europe, any pollster attempting to divine the outcome of an e******n should pay far less attention to what survey respondents say about the candidate they plan to v**e for than the candidate they actually believe is going to win. Professor Andreas Graefe of Ludwig-Maximilians-Universität München (LSU Munich), proclaims these citizen forecasts, as they are sometimes categorized, “the most accurate method that we have to predict e******n outcomes.” Dr. Graefe elaborates on this assertion at considerable length in Public Opinion Quarterly under the title “Accuracy of V**e Expectation Surveys in Forecasting”:

Across the last 100 days prior to the seven e******ns from 1988 to 2012, v**e expectation surveys provided more accurate forecasts of e******n winners and v**e shares than four established methods (v**e intention polls, prediction markets, quantitative models, and expert judgment). Gains in accuracy were particularly large compared to polls. On average, the error of expectation-based v**e-share forecasts was 51 percent lower than the error of polls published the same day.

V**e expectation surveys have been with us since the 1930s, just as long as scientific polling, but have never been used very widely as a tool for predicting e******n outcomes. As Professor Graefe puts it, “Only recently have researchers begun to specifically study v**e expectation surveys as a method for forecasting e******ns.” Among the researchers who have examined the v**er expectation data in recent years are Justin Wolfers of the University of Michigan Department of Economics and David Rothschild of the Microsoft Research and Applied Statistics Center. They published their findings at the Brookings Institution website under the title “Forecasting E******ns: V**er Intentions versus Expectations.”

Wolfers and Rothschild, like Professor Graefe, found that v**er expectations concerning who would win a given e******n were consistently more predictive than surveys using only conventional polling questions such as, “If the e******n were held today, who would you v**e for?” They compared the predictive efficacy of these v**er preference surveys to those that also asked questions about v**er expectations, such as, “Regardless of who you plan to v**e for, who do you think will win the upcoming e******n?” The answers to the latter queries proved significantly more useful in producing accurate e******n forecasts than polls that focused primarily on questions involving v**er intentions:

Our primary dataset consists of all the state-level e*******l p**********l college races from 1952 to 2008, where both the intention and expectation question are asked. In the 77 cases in which the intention and expectation question predict different candidates, the expectation question picks the winner 60 times, while the intention question only picked the winner 17 times. That is, 78% of the time that these two approaches disagree, the expectation data was correct.

This brings us back to those pundits and pollsters we saw frowning over statistics showing that poll respondents frequently give two different answers when asked whom they will v**e for and whom they expect to win. Politico recently reported, “When pollsters ask Americans who they think will win the e******n — not who they are v****g for themselves — Trump performs relatively well.” Even in surveys like the new Economist/YouGov poll that shows Trump down 49-40 nationally, only 39 percent of registered v**ers say Biden will beat him. In Pennsylvania, the new Monmouth poll shows Biden trouncing Trump. Yet, when asked who will win, the v**ers say the e******n is a toss-up.

This is what renders conventional e******n surveys so unreliable. It is what caused Gallup, the organization that invented “scientific polling” in 1936 when George Gallup and his team predicted the ree******n of Franklin Roosevelt, to stop participating in p**********l horserace polling and predicting the ultimate winner of the e******ns after 2012. Other pollsters have been less sagacious, which resulted in the 2016 debacle. Their 2020 projections are almost certainly yet another sloppy pig’s breakfast. Consequently, most v**ers don’t believe the polls, and that includes the disloyal opposition. As Tim Young writes in the Washington Times, Democrats don’t even believe these polls:

If Democrats believed the polls, you wouldn’t see The New York Times demanding real-time l*****t fact checkers and Mr. Trump’s tax returns in order for the former vice president to show up for a debate. Surely, he would be able to show up and dominate Mr. Trump in a debate — after all, Americans in every poll dislike the president.… If Democrats believed the polls, why were there protests blocking the road to Mr. Trump’s 4th of July celebration and speech at Mount Rushmore?

This is why few e******n polls include the dangerous question, “Who do you think will win the upcoming e******n?” The pollsters know about the research discussed above, they are familiar with the predictive nature of v**er expectation surveys, and they know that including such a deadly query will produce accurate results that will enrage their paymasters. They remember what happened to Nate Silver when he dared to suggest that Trump had a chance of defeating Hillary Clinton in 2016. The pollsters and the pundits who write about their findings don’t want to be canceled for telling the t***h, that a number of polls contain what Professor Graefe calls citizen forecasts indicating Trump is going to win.

saltwind 78 Loc: Murrells Inlet, South Carolina

Good luck with that. Trump is a complete catastrophe, and the American people know it. He has failed miserably as POTUS, the same as he failed in everything he has ever done, including going bankrupt five times as a businessman. He is responsible for tens of thousands of American deaths due to his inability to feel empathy for others. Make no mistake, that SOB is going down!

Marty 2020 Loc: Banana Republic of Kalifornia

You’re so full of yourself!
Trump has no responsibility for C***D deaths. China has it all, with participation awards going to F***i birx and Pelosi!
You really are a reflection of your master!

the waker Loc: 11th freest nation

Im a little lost here.
How exactly does showing empathy make him responcible for tens of thousands of deaths?
Are you telling me that C***D is an emotional v***s?

Lonewolf

What makes him responsible is him making it political saying its a democratic h**x and d**gging his feet while the v***s spread. The experts would tell us what to do then trump would undermine them giveing false and misleading info.
He was poster child for not wearing a mask.
Trump k**led a lot of people

Marty 2020 Loc: Banana Republic of Kalifornia

Yea right! F***i is the one doing the mask dance!
Get real!

the waker Loc: 11th freest nation

No he said Russia Gate was a h**x, and it was.
He was placing restrictions when the Left was calling him r****t for doing so, all the while running their SHAM impeachment trials.
Democrats only got on board when they figured out how to profit from it.
Trump didn't k**l anybody, the only ones responcible for any deaths were the ones cramming the sick into nursing homes

Lonewolf

Russia gate was not a h**x it was a cover-up no trump k**led at least 100,000 and he will pay for it.

ldsuttonjr Loc: ShangriLa

Your disappointed! MAGA 2020!

ldsuttonjr Loc: ShangriLa

marty! Your handlers have done an excellent job on your corruption!

ldsuttonjr Loc: ShangriLa

Durp!

ldsuttonjr Loc: ShangriLa

lonie: you have gotten out of your straight jacket!

bikerjack60

The Dems are the ones making it political'. I listen to liberal and conservative news outlets.

debeda

Good post, thanks!!! Honestly, the only e******n that has surprised me since 1960 was the 2012 e******n. I was shocked Obama won a 2nd term.

Marty 2020 Loc: Banana Republic of Kalifornia

Me too! However, his opponent was severely damaged morally!
Sure it would have been better but not much.