dtucker300 Loc: Vista, CA

Putin's best-laid plans for lifetime rule
BY PAUL RODERICK GREGORY, OPINION CONTRIBUTOR — 06/26/20 10:30 AM EDT

Vladimir Putin cannot afford to be an ex-president. Any successor will blame him for all that is wrong in Russia. There would be a mad dash to rec**p (divide) his billions stashed offshore. He might even face international courts on charges of state murder.

Earlier than expected — he currently rules, by law, until 2024 — Putin is in the final stage of executing a plan for lifetime rule.

Here’s how the plan works: The Putin administration is orchestrating the ratification of 14 amendments to Russia’s 1993 constitution. The key second amendment wipes Putin’s slate clean: E******n as Russia’s president in 2024 would be counted as his first, and he could run again in 2030. Under this new rule, Putin’s last year as president would be 2036 — at the age of 83.


The other amendments are window-dressing. They propose obtuse administrative changes and popular items such as outlawing same-sex marriage and guaranteeing minimum incomes.

The amendment package was approved in March by the State Duma (the lower house of the Federal Assembly), the 85 Federation Subjects (the country’s top political divisions), and by the constitutional court. Putin had planned for the final stage — a nationwide referendum — to be held amid the patriotic wave two days after the spectacular May 7 parades celebrating the 75th anniversary of Russia’s 1945 victory over Germany.

Then along came c****av***s. The victory parade had to be postponed until June 24, and the referendum until July 1.

As Russia reeled from the c****av***s, local authorities saw no need for military parades. But the Kremlin rejected calls for further delays in v****g, announcing that the p******c had been conquered and it was now safe to v**e.

Putin’s campaign for ratification began on June 24 with pared-back victory parades in Moscow and in the regions — accompanied by a rising wave of protests against Putin as “eternal president.” Police are arresting demonstrators for not wearing (obligatory) masks — or for wearing masks that conceal their identity.


While the state-sponsored Vtsiom polling organization anticipates a strong turnout and easy passage, the quasi-independent Levada Center foresees a more difficult path for Putin. Putin’s approval rating is stuck at a low of 59 percent — down from a high in the 80s — and his trust level is stuck at 25 percent, down from a previous high of 60 percent.

The candidate for eternal president is missing the popularity he once had, and at a bad time in his political life.

For a national referendum, both the turnout and the v****g results count. Levada finds that, as of early June, 65 percent of v**ers intended to participate and some 20 percent did not. Of those, 47 percent will v**e for, 31 percent against, and 22 percent are undecided.

The Kremlin has introduced new rules, such as v****g over a seven-day period, v****g from home and online v****g for Moscow and St. Petersburg. There is even a v**e-buying app that pays 50 to 75 rubles per newly registered v**er. V**ers can v**e at outside locations or through ward representatives who come to their homes. These v****g rules are aimed to boost turnout and, of course, to raise the percentage of “yes” v**es.

E******n officials are being given v****g targets; I doubt that many of them will fall short. There is little doubt that Putin will achieve his turnout and approval targets. After the v****g-week is up and the app-b****ts are counted, the e*******l commission will announce a turnout in excess of 65 percent and an overwhelming “yes” v**e.

There you have it: Putin is president for life. But that is not the end of the story.

Putin, more than others, understands that v**ers know when the official results bear little resemblance to the actual v**e. The more v****g officials have to manipulate the v**e, the angrier the reaction of v**ers.

Putin came close to being removed in November and December of 2011 as the Kremlin manipulated the v**e in Duma e******ns in favor of Putin’s United Russia party. Some 100,000 protesters burst onto Moscow streets with cries of “Russia without Putin” and nicknamed United Russia “the party of crooks and thieves.”

As an opposition deputy from St. Petersburg puts it: It will be impossible to hide the deception they are engaging in — and while the Kremlin’s denizens may not have paid attention to real history, as opposed to their imagined vision of the past, “many regimes have collapsed precisely when the mass population recognizes that an attempt to deceive them has been made.”

The Levada projections are three weeks out of date. Putin has been largely absent in the battle against c****av***s. There remains a significant share of undecideds as things have gone from bad to worse. Russia’s statistical agency has stopped printing its most-followed statistics. The number of C****-** deaths stands in excess of 8,000, and many think this figure is an understatement. After 20 years, the Russian people have a severe case of Putin fatigue.

Part of the Kremlin’s calculation is that the fear of c****av***s will scare off mass protests, but this may not be true. The demonstrations in the United States, which have spread to the United Kingdom and much of Europe (even including Germany), have shown that protests and c****av***s can go hand-in-hand.

No matter what, the referendum will be declared a success. If the people rise up, Putin will use force to put them down — but there are limits to public patience.

White House economist who just announced resignation tests positive...
The poor Russian people cannot get a break. It would be interesting to put demonstrators against the established order in the United States and in Europe in Russian shoes, to see what real political repression is about.

Paul Roderick Gregory is a professor emeritus of economics at the University of Houston, a research fellow at the Hoover Institution at Stanford University, and a research fellow at the German Institute for Economic Research. Follow him on Twitter @PaulR_Gregory.

Jlw Loc: Wisconsin

Maybe they will investigate him for American collusion

Smedley_buzkill

lpnmajor Loc: Arkansas

It's like the old "how to boil a frog without it knowing" routine. Promise the moon, get elected, then promise complete t***sparency and democratic rule........then slowly whittle away at the people's rights......................... until they wake up one day to realize they have none.

Kevyn

Trump should challenge Putin to a knife fight!

dtucker300 Loc: Vista, CA

On pay-per-view.

dtucker300 Loc: Vista, CA

We have more to worry about from Chinese interference in our e******ns. They have been at it for a long time and on a much larger scale than the Russians.