Voice of Reason Loc: Earth

For those who are mostly uninformed, the premise of the worldwide economic shutdown and 'social distancing' edicts in the US and most other first-world countries was based on a report from scientists at the Imperial College London University. Scientists there used math models and determined the death rate from C****-** would be astronomical. The prediction for deaths in the US alone was between 2.6 and 4.0 million people. The shutdowns were a response to prevent such a massive death toll.

However, those math models were run with insufficient data for inputs. Anybody familiar with math modeling knows the adage; garbage in, garbage out (GIGO). That means if the math model is given poor inputs, the output (results) will be poor as well.

Now that some time has passed and more real-world data is available, the math models have been re-run, with radically different results. They've revised the estimates of deaths due to C****-** downward by 97-98%! The estimate now for the US is about 80K deaths, or about 30-50 times lower than originally predicted. That's about the same number of deaths as in a bad flu season.

Further, given their past performance, there is no reason to believe even these lower estimates have any validity, and every reason to believe they're still overestimating.

It's time for the US and the rest of the world to get back to work.

Kevyn

Wow what great news only 27 times as many people as were k**led in the 9-11 attacks will die! Are you nuts? People should stay home so they do not get sick in mass and overwhelm the hospital system in the country. You are cheering the fact that more people than fit in Yankee Stadium will be all that die, and your numbers are nonsense.

Voice of Reason Loc: Earth

According to your illogic, the entire country should shut down every winter and everybody should stay home to avoid catching the flu, which k**ls about 10-27 times as many people as died on 9/11, every year.

nwtk2007 Loc: Texas

What we have here is an over reastion to pure BS promulgated by the media and the "sky is falling" l*****ts of the world; the very ones who want to destroyu the world's economy to "halt" c*****e c****e telling us that we have 12 years before implosion and millions burned alive by the increased heat from the sun. It's essentially the same thing. These people crave disaster; they crave the drama in their efforts to undo the world and generate their "new world order," what ever that might be.

They are like the family who noticed the house temp, on a hot day, "jumped" from 80.1 to 80.2 who then panic, run out to the local A/C warehouse, and spend everything they have on a new A/C unit but have nothing left to pay for its installation.

The Imperial College and those who circulated this dooms day report, many were medical directors of hospitals and doctors organizations who them circulated it it through their nursing staffs et al, were totally irresponsible.

nwtk2007 Loc: Texas

And yes, why haven't we been shutting down like this every year since 2009? That's easy, this time they can use it to try, once again, to unseat a duly elected president of the USA.

woodguru

Estimates are based on several levels of mitigation, from doing nothing to rather complete quarantines. The high number was the do nothing model. If locking it down for a period starts being a display of a better model opening up too soon jumps the country back into a worse outcome. My county has very few cases and I want it to stay that way.

Voice of Reason Loc: Earth

Absolutely correct! There is little difference between these doomsayers and those who constantly preach the end of the world. Amazingly, in both cases, the believers continue to believe regardless of how many times the doomsayers or end-of-world prophets are proven wrong.

Voice of Reason Loc: Earth

The new numbers are based on the do nothing model. They were originally way off with estimates of contagion and mortality rate.

Remember too, the whole point of the shutdown was to 'flatten the curve'. That would not prevent people from becoming infected, it just spread out the timespan during which they would. The idea being that fewer people might die because the medical infrastructure would be less overwhelmed than if everybody got sick at once.

Voice of Reason Loc: Earth

True, plus accomplish Obama's goal of destroying the economy and eliminating the US as a world superpower. Remember they firmly believe that 'fundamentally changing' the country must begin with destroying it.

nwtk2007 Loc: Texas

Exactly. People are spouting their "flatten the curve" mantra but know nothing of what it means.

saltwind78

Its time for this country and the world to save lives.

Kevyn

Your moron Pumpkinfurher is the one who shut things down, he just did it too late.

Voice of Reason Loc: Earth

Right, by getting back to work.

The estimates I'm hearing claim the worldwide shutdown has cost $25T so far. Think about that. That's more than $3,000 for every man, woman and child on the planet!

Those scientists are completely responsible for that "little $25T mistake", but there will be no consequences whatsoever.

Voice of Reason Loc: Earth

Because he listened to his advisers, who listened to those scientists in London. Just like most every other world leader.

President Trump thought they were wrong, but did what his advisers advised and the media demanded. He also knows the scientists pushing g****l w*****g are wrong, I wonder if other world leaders will begin questioning the validity of activist scientists now. Probably not.

saltwind78

Voice, As far as I know, the multi million person death rate is a worst case scenario. If there was no tests, social distancing, respirators, and protection like masks, gloves and goggles, it may have reached those numbers. If people stayed home and only went out, when absolutely necessary, and wore protective gear, our death rate from this p******c would be over much sooner, and we could all go back to work safely. It certainly is causing many deaths in this country and around the world. I'm over seventy five, with underlying medical conditions and I'm damned scared. I think it would be much better if we flattened the curve and licked this p******c before sending everybody back to work. This great country should concentrate on saving lives before making bucks. We have been through hard times before, and have always come out of it.