Understanding "The Curve" And That It's Tracking Increases Of Daily New Cases Is That "Oh, Now I Get It" Factor
Mar 25, 2020 13:32:23 #
I think that understanding the growth of new cases day by day, and that containing that daily growth to stable numbers as opposed to escalations of doubling them in a few days is when people see how it goes in advance, rather than when the people of Italy woke up and got it, which was weeks too late.
Italy admits, and I mean the people of Italy who started out reflecting the stance of the government that it was no big deal, nothing to worry about, that they wish they had paid attention weeks earlier before it was too late for some semblance of controlling it to numbers their healthcare system could deal with.
We are seeing warnings from a multitude of states and communities that their hospitals are all in, and the curve of their daily new cases is doubling in a few days. Louisiana went up a few hundred cases in one day, and their curve based on them doing nothing to change it will continue to double every few days. That is 400, then 500 more the next day, then 600 the next, 700, then 800 new cases. Meanwhile 2000 new cases are added in four days...and they were taxing their hospitals with "only 1200 cases. Then the next four days and the four after that are really ugly.
When nothing was done to change the exposure of new cases the curve keeps reflecting bigger numbers of cases every day, that is at least three weeks to see a change with serious locking things down.
There is a stage when the absolute statistical numbers of where things are headed for a few week period where nothing we do can change them, they will be what they are, doesn't sink in with people who are being told something else they happen to want to believe. The faster you can look at unchangeable statistics and get to that "oh crap" moment, the quicker you are part of taking it seriously and reducing new cases.
You have to know by the time Easter comes around that it would be a Jim Jones Koolaid moment to pack the churches when new daily cases are still escalating, paying attention to curves for different areas and states are crucial. Kentucky and Tennessee had equal cases when they announced their first cases, Kentucky reacted, Tennessee did not...now Kentucky has 157 cases and Tennessee has 773, anyone who doesn't realize that what those numbers will do over the next three or four weeks will tell an ugly tale of proactive responses versus nothing...it's a difference of hundreds versus thousands.
Be safe, take this seriously, and understand how unwavering statistics are, they don't care about the economy or maxing out hospitals. I'd like to think we are smarter than Italians and we'll get it quicker
Italy admits, and I mean the people of Italy who started out reflecting the stance of the government that it was no big deal, nothing to worry about, that they wish they had paid attention weeks earlier before it was too late for some semblance of controlling it to numbers their healthcare system could deal with.
We are seeing warnings from a multitude of states and communities that their hospitals are all in, and the curve of their daily new cases is doubling in a few days. Louisiana went up a few hundred cases in one day, and their curve based on them doing nothing to change it will continue to double every few days. That is 400, then 500 more the next day, then 600 the next, 700, then 800 new cases. Meanwhile 2000 new cases are added in four days...and they were taxing their hospitals with "only 1200 cases. Then the next four days and the four after that are really ugly.
When nothing was done to change the exposure of new cases the curve keeps reflecting bigger numbers of cases every day, that is at least three weeks to see a change with serious locking things down.
There is a stage when the absolute statistical numbers of where things are headed for a few week period where nothing we do can change them, they will be what they are, doesn't sink in with people who are being told something else they happen to want to believe. The faster you can look at unchangeable statistics and get to that "oh crap" moment, the quicker you are part of taking it seriously and reducing new cases.
You have to know by the time Easter comes around that it would be a Jim Jones Koolaid moment to pack the churches when new daily cases are still escalating, paying attention to curves for different areas and states are crucial. Kentucky and Tennessee had equal cases when they announced their first cases, Kentucky reacted, Tennessee did not...now Kentucky has 157 cases and Tennessee has 773, anyone who doesn't realize that what those numbers will do over the next three or four weeks will tell an ugly tale of proactive responses versus nothing...it's a difference of hundreds versus thousands.
Be safe, take this seriously, and understand how unwavering statistics are, they don't care about the economy or maxing out hospitals. I'd like to think we are smarter than Italians and we'll get it quicker
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