Worst Case Estimate by the CDC: The CDC estimates that doing nothing that 200 million-plus will become infected and 1 million-plus will die. Now I know you cons think that everything...

PeterS

The CDC estimates that doing nothing that 200 million-plus will become infected and 1 million-plus will die. Now I know you cons think that everything bad is created by the E-VILE Democrat the CDC is speaking without any encouragement from us. Now suppose we get through with only a few thousands of deaths. Will that mean that we overreacted or that we reacted properly thereby saving over a million lives?

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/13/us/c****av***s-deaths-estimate.html

Officials at the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention and epidemic experts from universities around the world conferred last month about what might happen if the new c****av***s gained a foothold in the United States. How many people might die? How many would be infected and need hospitalization?

One of the agency’s top disease modelers, Matthew Biggerstaff, presented the group on the phone call with four possible scenarios — A, B, C and D — based on characteristics of the v***s, including estimates of how t***smissible it is and the severity of the illness it can cause. The assumptions, reviewed by The New York Times, were shared with about 50 expert teams to model how the v***s could tear through the population — and what might stop it.

The C.D.C.’s scenarios were depicted in terms of percentages of the population. T***slated into absolute numbers by independent experts using simple models of how v***ses spread, the worst-case figures would be staggering if no actions were taken to slow t***smission.

Between 160 million and 214 million people in the United States could be infected over the course of the epidemic, according to a projection that encompasses the range of the four scenarios. That could last months or even over a year, with infections concentrated in shorter periods, staggered across time in different communities, experts said. As many as 200,000 to 1.7 million people could die.

And, the calculations based on the C.D.C.’s scenarios suggested, 2.4 million to 21 million people in the United States could require hospitalization, potentially crushing the nation’s medical system, which has only about 925,000 staffed hospital beds. Fewer than a tenth of those are for people who are critically ill.

The assumptions fueling those scenarios are mitigated by the fact that cities, states, businesses and individuals are beginning to take steps to slow t***smission, even if some are acting less aggressively than others. The C.D.C.-led effort is developing more sophisticated models showing how interventions might decrease the worst-case numbers, though their projections have not been made public.

“When people change their behavior," said Lauren Gardner, an associate professor at the Johns Hopkins Whiting School of Engineering who models epidemics, “those model parameters are no longer applicable,” so short-term forecasts are likely to be more accurate. “There is a lot of room for improvement if we act appropriately.”

Those actions include testing for the v***s, tracing contacts, and reducing human interactions by stopping mass gatherings, working from home and curbing travel. In just the last two days, multiple schools and colleges closed, sports events were halted or delayed, Broadway theaters went dark, companies barred employees from going to the office and more people said they were following hygiene recommendations.

The Times obtained screenshots of the C.D.C. presentation, which has not been released publicly, from someone not involved in the meetings. The Times then verified the data with several scientists who did participate. The scenarios were marked valid until Feb. 28, but remain “roughly the same,” according to Ira Longini, co-director of the Center for Statistics and Quantitative Infectious Diseases at the University of Florida. He has joined in meetings of the group.

The C.D.C. declined interview requests about the modeling effort and referred a request for comment to the White House C****av***s Task Force. Devin O’Malley, a spokesman for the task force, said that senior health officials had not presented the findings to the group, led by Vice President Mike Pence, and that nobody in Mr. Pence’s office “has seen or been briefed on these models.”

dtucker300 Loc: Vista, CA

PeterS wrote:

The CDC estimates that doing nothing that 200 million-plus will become infected and 1 million-plus will die. Now I know you cons think that everything bad is created by the E-VILE Democrat the CDC is speaking without any encouragement from us. Now suppose we get through with only a few thousands of deaths. Will that mean that we overreacted or that we reacted properly thereby saving over a million lives?

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/13/us/c****av***s-deaths-estimate.html

Officials at the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention and epidemic experts from universities around the world conferred last month about what might happen if the new c****av***s gained a foothold in the United States. How many people might die? How many would be infected and need hospitalization?

One of the agency’s top disease modelers, Matthew Biggerstaff, presented the group on the phone call with four possible scenarios — A, B, C and D — based on characteristics of the v***s, including estimates of how t***smissible it is and the severity of the illness it can cause. The assumptions, reviewed by The New York Times, were shared with about 50 expert teams to model how the v***s could tear through the population — and what might stop it.

The C.D.C.’s scenarios were depicted in terms of percentages of the population. T***slated into absolute numbers by independent experts using simple models of how v***ses spread, the worst-case figures would be staggering if no actions were taken to slow t***smission.

Between 160 million and 214 million people in the United States could be infected over the course of the epidemic, according to a projection that encompasses the range of the four scenarios. That could last months or even over a year, with infections concentrated in shorter periods, staggered across time in different communities, experts said. As many as 200,000 to 1.7 million people could die.

And, the calculations based on the C.D.C.’s scenarios suggested, 2.4 million to 21 million people in the United States could require hospitalization, potentially crushing the nation’s medical system, which has only about 925,000 staffed hospital beds. Fewer than a tenth of those are for people who are critically ill.

The assumptions fueling those scenarios are mitigated by the fact that cities, states, businesses and individuals are beginning to take steps to slow t***smission, even if some are acting less aggressively than others. The C.D.C.-led effort is developing more sophisticated models showing how interventions might decrease the worst-case numbers, though their projections have not been made public.

“When people change their behavior," said Lauren Gardner, an associate professor at the Johns Hopkins Whiting School of Engineering who models epidemics, “those model parameters are no longer applicable,” so short-term forecasts are likely to be more accurate. “There is a lot of room for improvement if we act appropriately.”

Those actions include testing for the v***s, tracing contacts, and reducing human interactions by stopping mass gatherings, working from home and curbing travel. In just the last two days, multiple schools and colleges closed, sports events were halted or delayed, Broadway theaters went dark, companies barred employees from going to the office and more people said they were following hygiene recommendations.

The Times obtained screenshots of the C.D.C. presentation, which has not been released publicly, from someone not involved in the meetings. The Times then verified the data with several scientists who did participate. The scenarios were marked valid until Feb. 28, but remain “roughly the same,” according to Ira Longini, co-director of the Center for Statistics and Quantitative Infectious Diseases at the University of Florida. He has joined in meetings of the group.

The C.D.C. declined interview requests about the modeling effort and referred a request for comment to the White House C****av***s Task Force. Devin O’Malley, a spokesman for the task force, said that senior health officials had not presented the findings to the group, led by Vice President Mike Pence, and that nobody in Mr. Pence’s office “has seen or been briefed on these models.”

The CDC estimates that doing nothing that 200 mill... (show quote)

Your first paragraph starts with a false premise

Quote:

Now I know you cons think that everything bad is created by the E-VILE Democrat

so nothing is worth reading any further. You don't know squat.

4430 Loc: Little Egypt ** Southern Illinory

dtucker300 wrote:

so nothing is worth reading any further. You don't know squat.

NYT the media just can't stop beating this dead horse it's their way as is all the other so called media to keep people in constant fear !

It's the next thing they hope to take Trump down they would trash the country to smithereens if that would be what would take Trump down !

Gatsby

PeterS wrote:

The CDC estimates that doing nothing that 200 million-plus will become infected and 1 million-plus will die. Now I know you cons think that everything bad is created by the E-VILE Democrat the CDC is speaking without any encouragement from us. Now suppose we get through with only a few thousands of deaths. Will that mean that we overreacted or that we reacted properly thereby saving over a million lives?

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/13/us/c****av***s-deaths-estimate.html

Officials at the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention and epidemic experts from universities around the world conferred last month about what might happen if the new c****av***s gained a foothold in the United States. How many people might die? How many would be infected and need hospitalization?

One of the agency’s top disease modelers, Matthew Biggerstaff, presented the group on the phone call with four possible scenarios — A, B, C and D — based on characteristics of the v***s, including estimates of how t***smissible it is and the severity of the illness it can cause. The assumptions, reviewed by The New York Times, were shared with about 50 expert teams to model how the v***s could tear through the population — and what might stop it.

The C.D.C.’s scenarios were depicted in terms of percentages of the population. T***slated into absolute numbers by independent experts using simple models of how v***ses spread, the worst-case figures would be staggering if no actions were taken to slow t***smission.

Between 160 million and 214 million people in the United States could be infected over the course of the epidemic, according to a projection that encompasses the range of the four scenarios. That could last months or even over a year, with infections concentrated in shorter periods, staggered across time in different communities, experts said. As many as 200,000 to 1.7 million people could die.

And, the calculations based on the C.D.C.’s scenarios suggested, 2.4 million to 21 million people in the United States could require hospitalization, potentially crushing the nation’s medical system, which has only about 925,000 staffed hospital beds. Fewer than a tenth of those are for people who are critically ill.

The assumptions fueling those scenarios are mitigated by the fact that cities, states, businesses and individuals are beginning to take steps to slow t***smission, even if some are acting less aggressively than others. The C.D.C.-led effort is developing more sophisticated models showing how interventions might decrease the worst-case numbers, though their projections have not been made public.

“When people change their behavior," said Lauren Gardner, an associate professor at the Johns Hopkins Whiting School of Engineering who models epidemics, “those model parameters are no longer applicable,” so short-term forecasts are likely to be more accurate. “There is a lot of room for improvement if we act appropriately.”

Those actions include testing for the v***s, tracing contacts, and reducing human interactions by stopping mass gatherings, working from home and curbing travel. In just the last two days, multiple schools and colleges closed, sports events were halted or delayed, Broadway theaters went dark, companies barred employees from going to the office and more people said they were following hygiene recommendations.

The Times obtained screenshots of the C.D.C. presentation, which has not been released publicly, from someone not involved in the meetings. The Times then verified the data with several scientists who did participate. The scenarios were marked valid until Feb. 28, but remain “roughly the same,” according to Ira Longini, co-director of the Center for Statistics and Quantitative Infectious Diseases at the University of Florida. He has joined in meetings of the group.

The C.D.C. declined interview requests about the modeling effort and referred a request for comment to the White House C****av***s Task Force. Devin O’Malley, a spokesman for the task force, said that senior health officials had not presented the findings to the group, led by Vice President Mike Pence, and that nobody in Mr. Pence’s office “has seen or been briefed on these models.”

The CDC estimates that doing nothing that 200 mill... (show quote)

There is not one bit of "proven science" offered to support any of their panic mongering!

Canuckus Deploracus Loc: North of the wall

PeterS wrote:

The CDC estimates that doing nothing that 200 million-plus will become infected and 1 million-plus will die. Now I know you cons think that everything bad is created by the E-VILE Democrat the CDC is speaking without any encouragement from us. Now suppose we get through with only a few thousands of deaths. Will that mean that we overreacted or that we reacted properly thereby saving over a million lives?

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/13/us/c****av***s-deaths-estimate.html

Officials at the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention and epidemic experts from universities around the world conferred last month about what might happen if the new c****av***s gained a foothold in the United States. How many people might die? How many would be infected and need hospitalization?

One of the agency’s top disease modelers, Matthew Biggerstaff, presented the group on the phone call with four possible scenarios — A, B, C and D — based on characteristics of the v***s, including estimates of how t***smissible it is and the severity of the illness it can cause. The assumptions, reviewed by The New York Times, were shared with about 50 expert teams to model how the v***s could tear through the population — and what might stop it.

The C.D.C.’s scenarios were depicted in terms of percentages of the population. T***slated into absolute numbers by independent experts using simple models of how v***ses spread, the worst-case figures would be staggering if no actions were taken to slow t***smission.

Between 160 million and 214 million people in the United States could be infected over the course of the epidemic, according to a projection that encompasses the range of the four scenarios. That could last months or even over a year, with infections concentrated in shorter periods, staggered across time in different communities, experts said. As many as 200,000 to 1.7 million people could die.

And, the calculations based on the C.D.C.’s scenarios suggested, 2.4 million to 21 million people in the United States could require hospitalization, potentially crushing the nation’s medical system, which has only about 925,000 staffed hospital beds. Fewer than a tenth of those are for people who are critically ill.

The assumptions fueling those scenarios are mitigated by the fact that cities, states, businesses and individuals are beginning to take steps to slow t***smission, even if some are acting less aggressively than others. The C.D.C.-led effort is developing more sophisticated models showing how interventions might decrease the worst-case numbers, though their projections have not been made public.

“When people change their behavior," said Lauren Gardner, an associate professor at the Johns Hopkins Whiting School of Engineering who models epidemics, “those model parameters are no longer applicable,” so short-term forecasts are likely to be more accurate. “There is a lot of room for improvement if we act appropriately.”

Those actions include testing for the v***s, tracing contacts, and reducing human interactions by stopping mass gatherings, working from home and curbing travel. In just the last two days, multiple schools and colleges closed, sports events were halted or delayed, Broadway theaters went dark, companies barred employees from going to the office and more people said they were following hygiene recommendations.

The Times obtained screenshots of the C.D.C. presentation, which has not been released publicly, from someone not involved in the meetings. The Times then verified the data with several scientists who did participate. The scenarios were marked valid until Feb. 28, but remain “roughly the same,” according to Ira Longini, co-director of the Center for Statistics and Quantitative Infectious Diseases at the University of Florida. He has joined in meetings of the group.

The C.D.C. declined interview requests about the modeling effort and referred a request for comment to the White House C****av***s Task Force. Devin O’Malley, a spokesman for the task force, said that senior health officials had not presented the findings to the group, led by Vice President Mike Pence, and that nobody in Mr. Pence’s office “has seen or been briefed on these models.”

The CDC estimates that doing nothing that 200 mill... (show quote)

Triage would result in horrendous situations..

I hope that the numbers are limited to the thousands...

PeterS

delete

PeterS

dtucker300 wrote:

so nothing is worth reading any further. You don't know squat.

What was the false premise and why? Did none of you ever take a Speech course or debate in High School or College? You can't simply say I have a false premise you have to show why it is false. Can you? If not you should move on before you embarrass yourself...

PeterS

Canuckus Deploracus wrote:

Triage would result in horrendous situations..

I hope that the numbers are limited to the thousands...

Look at Italy. Italy has already passed China's death toll and they say this is the worst disaster they've faced since WWII. And here the governor of Idaho isn't going to do anything and instead leave it up to the cities do wh**ever they see fit. So we will see whether the Wild West gunslinger approach is appropriate or whether Republican governors should be taking this a little more seriously.

PeterS

Gatsby wrote:

There is not one bit of "proven science" offered to support any of their panic mongering!

You don't need "proven science" to do mathematical projections. All the CDC did was basic modeling using the variables that we know pertain to the C****av***s. It really is simply math and it centers around how many hospital beds that are available. I live in Dallas and Dallas Country has about 4,000 hospital beds for which about 400 are intensive care. Now Dallas's worst-case scenario Dallas country would need over 77,000 beds and we could forget about ICU. So that was the reason that Dallas County implemented a Shelter in Place because by doing that we should be able to get by with our current capacity without having to do anything drastic.

This isn't panic mongering but the simple trying caution to err on the side of caution than to treat this v***s lightly and be faced with a disaster like one we haven't seen since the Spanish Flu.

dtucker300 Loc: Vista, CA

PeterS wrote:

You don't need "proven science" to do ma... (show quote)

GIGO; They used the same computer that made the g****l w*****g projections.

Canuckus Deploracus Loc: North of the wall

PeterS wrote:

Look at Italy. Italy has already passed China's death toll and they say this is the worst disaster they've faced since WWII. And here the governor of Idaho isn't going to do anything and instead leave it up to the cities do wh**ever they see fit. So we will see whether the Wild West gunslinger approach is appropriate or whether Republican governors should be taking this a little more seriously.

Italy has doubled the death toll..

And over four thousand of their medical workers have tested positive for the v***s

No Nation was properly prepared for this... And the wake up call seems to be hard for some to hear

Stay strong Peter...

FallenOak Loc: St George Utah

PeterS wrote:

The CDC estimates that doing nothing that 200 million-plus will become infected and 1 million-plus will die. Now I know you cons think that everything bad is created by the E-VILE Democrat the CDC is speaking without any encouragement from us. Now suppose we get through with only a few thousands of deaths. Will that mean that we overreacted or that we reacted properly thereby saving over a million lives?

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/13/us/c****av***s-deaths-estimate.html

Officials at the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention and epidemic experts from universities around the world conferred last month about what might happen if the new c****av***s gained a foothold in the United States. How many people might die? How many would be infected and need hospitalization?

One of the agency’s top disease modelers, Matthew Biggerstaff, presented the group on the phone call with four possible scenarios — A, B, C and D — based on characteristics of the v***s, including estimates of how t***smissible it is and the severity of the illness it can cause. The assumptions, reviewed by The New York Times, were shared with about 50 expert teams to model how the v***s could tear through the population — and what might stop it.

The C.D.C.’s scenarios were depicted in terms of percentages of the population. T***slated into absolute numbers by independent experts using simple models of how v***ses spread, the worst-case figures would be staggering if no actions were taken to slow t***smission.

Between 160 million and 214 million people in the United States could be infected over the course of the epidemic, according to a projection that encompasses the range of the four scenarios. That could last months or even over a year, with infections concentrated in shorter periods, staggered across time in different communities, experts said. As many as 200,000 to 1.7 million people could die.

And, the calculations based on the C.D.C.’s scenarios suggested, 2.4 million to 21 million people in the United States could require hospitalization, potentially crushing the nation’s medical system, which has only about 925,000 staffed hospital beds. Fewer than a tenth of those are for people who are critically ill.

The assumptions fueling those scenarios are mitigated by the fact that cities, states, businesses and individuals are beginning to take steps to slow t***smission, even if some are acting less aggressively than others. The C.D.C.-led effort is developing more sophisticated models showing how interventions might decrease the worst-case numbers, though their projections have not been made public.

“When people change their behavior," said Lauren Gardner, an associate professor at the Johns Hopkins Whiting School of Engineering who models epidemics, “those model parameters are no longer applicable,” so short-term forecasts are likely to be more accurate. “There is a lot of room for improvement if we act appropriately.”

Those actions include testing for the v***s, tracing contacts, and reducing human interactions by stopping mass gatherings, working from home and curbing travel. In just the last two days, multiple schools and colleges closed, sports events were halted or delayed, Broadway theaters went dark, companies barred employees from going to the office and more people said they were following hygiene recommendations.

The Times obtained screenshots of the C.D.C. presentation, which has not been released publicly, from someone not involved in the meetings. The Times then verified the data with several scientists who did participate. The scenarios were marked valid until Feb. 28, but remain “roughly the same,” according to Ira Longini, co-director of the Center for Statistics and Quantitative Infectious Diseases at the University of Florida. He has joined in meetings of the group.

The C.D.C. declined interview requests about the modeling effort and referred a request for comment to the White House C****av***s Task Force. Devin O’Malley, a spokesman for the task force, said that senior health officials had not presented the findings to the group, led by Vice President Mike Pence, and that nobody in Mr. Pence’s office “has seen or been briefed on these models.”

The CDC estimates that doing nothing that 200 mill... (show quote)

In the first sentence (The CDC estimates that doing nothing that 200 million-plus will become infected and 1 million-plus will die.) you show 1/2 of 1 percent will die. Really small percentage. Why are we being pressured into such a panic mode? Maybe not by you because you are only using someone elses numbers and not making up your own. Doom and Gloom rule the day.

dtucker300 Loc: Vista, CA

FallenOak wrote:

In the first sentence (The CDC estimates that doing nothing that 200 million-plus will become infected and 1 million-plus will die.) you show 1/2 of 1 percent will die. Really small percentage. Why are we being pressured into such a panic mode? Maybe not by you because you are only using someone elses numbers and not making up your own. Doom and Gloom rule the day.

The best averages for mortality rates coming out of W***n have been at 1.4%. No one is pressuring us to go into a panic mode. Some people just automatically panic while others do not. Where there is no "hope" (vision) the people perish. We are Americans. We have been through much worse and we will get through this.
We will come through it stronger than before.

77Reaganite Loc: Athens, GA, United States

PeterS wrote:

The CDC estimates that doing nothing that 200 million-plus will become infected and 1 million-plus will die. Now I know you cons think that everything bad is created by the E-VILE Democrat the CDC is speaking without any encouragement from us. Now suppose we get through with only a few thousands of deaths. Will that mean that we overreacted or that we reacted properly thereby saving over a million lives?

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/13/us/c****av***s-deaths-estimate.html

Officials at the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention and epidemic experts from universities around the world conferred last month about what might happen if the new c****av***s gained a foothold in the United States. How many people might die? How many would be infected and need hospitalization?

One of the agency’s top disease modelers, Matthew Biggerstaff, presented the group on the phone call with four possible scenarios — A, B, C and D — based on characteristics of the v***s, including estimates of how t***smissible it is and the severity of the illness it can cause. The assumptions, reviewed by The New York Times, were shared with about 50 expert teams to model how the v***s could tear through the population — and what might stop it.

The C.D.C.’s scenarios were depicted in terms of percentages of the population. T***slated into absolute numbers by independent experts using simple models of how v***ses spread, the worst-case figures would be staggering if no actions were taken to slow t***smission.

Between 160 million and 214 million people in the United States could be infected over the course of the epidemic, according to a projection that encompasses the range of the four scenarios. That could last months or even over a year, with infections concentrated in shorter periods, staggered across time in different communities, experts said. As many as 200,000 to 1.7 million people could die.

And, the calculations based on the C.D.C.’s scenarios suggested, 2.4 million to 21 million people in the United States could require hospitalization, potentially crushing the nation’s medical system, which has only about 925,000 staffed hospital beds. Fewer than a tenth of those are for people who are critically ill.

The assumptions fueling those scenarios are mitigated by the fact that cities, states, businesses and individuals are beginning to take steps to slow t***smission, even if some are acting less aggressively than others. The C.D.C.-led effort is developing more sophisticated models showing how interventions might decrease the worst-case numbers, though their projections have not been made public.

“When people change their behavior," said Lauren Gardner, an associate professor at the Johns Hopkins Whiting School of Engineering who models epidemics, “those model parameters are no longer applicable,” so short-term forecasts are likely to be more accurate. “There is a lot of room for improvement if we act appropriately.”

Those actions include testing for the v***s, tracing contacts, and reducing human interactions by stopping mass gatherings, working from home and curbing travel. In just the last two days, multiple schools and colleges closed, sports events were halted or delayed, Broadway theaters went dark, companies barred employees from going to the office and more people said they were following hygiene recommendations.

The Times obtained screenshots of the C.D.C. presentation, which has not been released publicly, from someone not involved in the meetings. The Times then verified the data with several scientists who did participate. The scenarios were marked valid until Feb. 28, but remain “roughly the same,” according to Ira Longini, co-director of the Center for Statistics and Quantitative Infectious Diseases at the University of Florida. He has joined in meetings of the group.

The C.D.C. declined interview requests about the modeling effort and referred a request for comment to the White House C****av***s Task Force. Devin O’Malley, a spokesman for the task force, said that senior health officials had not presented the findings to the group, led by Vice President Mike Pence, and that nobody in Mr. Pence’s office “has seen or been briefed on these models.”

The CDC estimates that doing nothing that 200 mill... (show quote)

Here we go with Chinese g*******t propaganda trying to stoke fear in the American public to keep their ass at home and do nothing but hurt President Trump which is exactly why this v***s was created by the g*******ts to bring down the west and President Trump I've had enough of our state-sponsored media and newspapers stop quoting me Pravda talking points