fullspinzoo

Hey, the Dems could screw up just about anything. I guess confirming that Sanders had won was more than they could handle. Was Hillary in the neighborhood? Anytime the Dems are involved, you can just count on corruption. It's in their DNA. So sad to see the whole Dem apparatus be labeled a big SNAFU right out of the gate.

JFlorio Loc: Seminole Florida

What I love is it doesn't matter if this was the result of a power outage. The i***t Berniebots will raise hell if he didn't win it. Like many lefties on OPP (Barracuda comes to mind) they will not except the t***h if it's not what they want to hear.

fullspinzoo

Spot on (especially with the fish comment). Is this some of the same crap that went on in 2016 with Bernie? I still think Joe would be the easiest to knock over this summer....if we got to choose.

JFlorio Loc: Seminole Florida

Joe has a tough time in those gyms in Iowa. If you’d have yelled B-3 Joe would have shouted Bingo.

fullspinzoo

Hey, now I needed that to get the ole' juices flowin' this morning. That is so spot on, Mr. Florio.

dtucker300 Loc: Vista, CA

The Messy Math Behind the Iowa Caucuses
Fractions, factions, and changing v**es, oh my!


By Caroline Delbert
Feb 3, 2020
Democratic P**********l Candidates Participate In Fourth Debate In OhioCHIP SOMODEVILLA
The Iowa caucuses—the first, biggest event of the U.S. p**********l primary season—begin tonight.
They’re really important in the grand scheme of electing the next president ... but they’re really confusing, too.
Here, we explain the muddled math that goes into determining the delegate count.
The Iowa caucuses are the first event of each U.S. p**********l primary season, and even if they weren’t first, they’d stand out as the only stripes in a field of polka dots. The system dates back to the early 1800s, and almost everyone abandoned the caucus over time—but not for a long time, until 1972.

Originally, caucuses were a complex series of e*******l focus groups who chose delegates, who then chose candidates. “[T]he caucuses technically served to elect delegates to county conventions, which in turn elected delegates to district conventions and the state convention, which in turn elected delegates to the Democratic National Convention,” Nate Silver writes at FiveThirtyEight.

But how does a caucus work, and how does the math break down? Let’s take a look at the Democratic Party caucus only, because the Republican Party caucus is a little different.

In each location’s caucus—and Iowa has nearly 1,700 precincts—Democratic Party members show up to community centers, schools, and more and literally stand in a group together. There are seven Democratic candidates eligible for the caucuses, so seven people holding signs will stand along the edges and corners of the space, and v**ers will literally walk to the candidate they want.

In most precincts, the threshold for a candidate to continue is 15 percent. For any number of candidates up to and including six, that means the first round of v****g with your feet could lead to everyone being viable. But with seven candidates, if all the candidates tie, they’ll all fall just below 15 percent.

Silver says this is the first year the first round of delegates will be counted and considered. In the past, they didn’t need to be, because of what happens next. If a candidate’s group breaks the viability threshold, they’re secure with at least that 15 percent. V**ers whose candidates didn’t break the threshold have a chance to try to lure other non-viable v**ers in order to get 15 percent total.

But Silver says these v**ers are more likely to move to larger groups, not smaller ones still fighting for viability. If someone gets 14 percent, not only are they not viable—they’re also likely about to lose people to the first-round winner who has, say, 30 percent. They must replace every v**er who leaves and attract enough extra people to get to 15 percent. Silver’s statistical model at FiveThirtyEight reflects how unlikely this is.

And although six candidates could emerge viable if there were a virtual tie, the Democratic field is more stratified than that. V**ers are going to move to higher-polling candidates, according to Silver’s model. There could easily be four viable candidates, though. In 2016, there were only three candidates in contention, and Sec. Hillary Clinton and Sen. Bernie Sanders came out in almost a tie.

Iowa will report the first count of each precinct and then the final count, which is who is viable after the second-choice dust settles. The final count is turned into delegate numbers for the Democratic National Convention. But it’s affected by a “weight” value assigned based on general e******n numbers for President in 2016 and Governor of Iowa in 2018. So the number of delegates is based on the proportion of v**ers in those two general e******ns, and within that weighted number, the delegates are assigned based on the proportions of today’s caucuses.

If the E******n Is Hacked, This Is How
In a political climate where people are interested in potentially changing how e*******l delegates are assigned or if they even should be, the Iowa Caucuses are interesting because of the complicated layers of proportions. Does making ratios based on past general e******ns and then filtering them by 2020 candidates make sense? Silver says this setup gives more power to rural v**ers, whose numbers are represented more in general e******n numbers than in caucuses.

Iowa’s delegates are important, but winning at Iowa has also been a bellwether since the caucuses were moved to the beginning of the primary schedule. Indeed, in a series of weighted and proportional metrics, this could be the weightiest one of all.

H/T: FiveThirtyEight

TrueAmerican

EHHHXACTLY !!!!!!

Lt. Rob Polans ret.

Kermit Theee Frog, nah, President Trump

Canuckus Deploracus Loc: North of the wall