son of witless

I think as yet neither the US of A or China are hurting all that much. I believe the Chinese are waiting Trump out. As we get into the e******n year two things are possible to help them. If the American economy stumbles, more pressure will be on Trump to give them a better deal than they can get now. The other thing is, they could be hoping that Trump will lose. Any of the Democrat contenders likely will not have the stomach to continue Trump's trade war, especially Wimpy Joe.

https://www.cnn.com/2019/07/15/economy/china-gdp-growth/index.html

As the article states Chinese growth has slowed. So they are hurting. This helps the US of A in two ways. First the Chinese are feeling the pressure. The C*******t Party Leadership needs high growth and exports to keep their oppressed masses quiet and content. Right now Hong Kong seems to be their only major internal stress, but if they feel the affects of a prolonged trade war, more cracks in their political control could appear.

The second good thing is the development of alternative supply lines for American companies. As the article states Vietnam, Taiwan, South Korea, and Bangladesh are benefiting from the trade dispute. These and other nations fear Chinese expansion and America increasing it's trade with them is good for us in the long run.

acknowledgeurma

son of witless wrote, "The C*******t Party Leadership needs high growth and exports to keep their oppressed masses quiet and content."

History has shown that they also have the PLA (Chinese People's Liberation Army).

son of witless

China is not North Korea. China allows a high degree of entrepreneur-ism. In the late 1970s China broke with the old Soviet-Stalinist economic model. As long as the people stay out of politics, they are allowed to make money. This ramped up even more in the mid 1980s. To keep the populace docile China needs to keep them working and making money. China is oppressive of the political aspirations of the non C*******t Party populace. It has worked.

During the world wide slowdown in 2008 the Chinese government spent a lot of money just to keep it's citizens working and not r**ting because for a change they could not export their way out of trouble. The problem is that they added to already over capacity in certain industries and in housing. They have built Ghost Towns. This has also caused high debt levels in local governments and Government owned companies.

China has crushed opposition in some of it's rural provinces. Example the Uyghurs . That is a boost to your argument. The fact that they have not yet done the same to Hong Kong is against it.

acknowledgeurma

Off the top of my head, the Uyghurs probably don't lay golden eggs, and maybe the Party is smart enough to not run over the Hong Kong goose with a tank.

Radiance3

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Without Hongkong, the economic policy of China could not compete with president Trump. China has 1.4 billion people to take care of.

The British took over Hongkong in 1898 with a lease for 99 years under Queen Victoria. British had made Hongkong prosperous with democratic controlled under capitalism.

GDP of US in 2018 was $20.5 trillion versus China was $14.2 trillion.

President Trump impost a 10% tariff to China imports worth about $300 billion.
Chinese retaliated to impost 25% tariffs to US imports about $16 billion.

US depends so much on cheap quality Chinese products, made by Chinese cheap labor. I think US must discipline ourselves buy our own which is more durable and better quality though a little bit more expensive due to our higher standards and high labor cost.

In 1997, the British PM Margaret Thatcher, signed and ended the 99-year lease. Hongkong was ceded back to China, with the condition that Hongkong remains democratically controlled governance under capitalism for 50 years.

The return of Hongkong to China made China prosperous and gradually got world dominance in commerce in the Far East. It used to be Japan was the main country that controlled economic dominance in the Far East.

The people in Hongkong have been used to democratic control via the Parliamentary system of England.
That has slowly changed, and the mainland China is beginning to take away that freedom, thus people of Hongkong resist. They want more freedom away from the mainland.

Hongkong has a 426 miles of territory and the most densely populated and economically independent in all parts of the world. Hongkong is now revolting against the mainland for power control. The people of Hongkong grew up in freedom under the British rule.
I hope the people of Hongkong continue to live freely under capitalism to pursue its destiny.

https://www.thoughtco.com/china-lease-hong-kong-to-britain-195153

acknowledgeurma

I think it is a stretch to say Hong Kong was democratically controlled under the British. It was only after Chris Patten became governor in 1992 that he made moves to democratize Hong Kong. See:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Democratic_development_in_Hong_Kong

Radiance3

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That must be so. Chris Patten had given them their final happiest days during the last years of British colony. But Hongkong under the British Empire had learned so much of the Western civilization.

son of witless

C*******ts generally use force and oppression to control their fellow citizens and keep power. The problem is, as the Soviets found out, over the long term you simply cannot match your Capitalist competitors. Stalin used force and murder to get what he could out of his s***es. His successors by not being as blood thirsty gradually got less and less. Whenever leaders like Khrushchev and Gorbachev tried to reform C*******m their efforts only made it even less efficient because they could not ever go far enough in allowing the incentives for the people to want to produce more.

China was the only C*******t nation to figure out a way to allow capitalistic reforms in and still maintain political control. Somehow the Chinese reformers were not blocked by the bureaucratic power centers that always frustrated Soviet reformers. However, the Chinese model requires high economic growth. There has to be at least the perception of the Chinese people improving economically. If they have a prolonged period of stagnation, their only fallback is harsh repression.

They can get away with Repression with isolated regions that have minorities like the Uyghurs who can be isolated. They are trying to wipe out the cultural identity of the Uyghurs and make them thoroughly Chinese. They have many in detention camps.

My point is that China would prefer using prosperity to govern rather that naked force. China is described as very strong, but brittle. There are divisions within the C*******t Party. If they use force because they have a period of low growth, then cracks in their facade of control will form. They also have a potential rival political class that North Korea does not have to worry about. They have a rich entrepreneurial group who might become active.

When the Soviet Union collapsed there was a small group of Oligarchs who eventually Putin had to crush. The Chinese C*******t Party has to be aware that it has that same problem, only much bigger.

acknowledgeurma

Richard D. Wolff has an interesting video: Rise and Fall of the USSR
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_Y-TWFKw4tU

In the last minute, he describes a fundamental difference between the USSR and the PRC (i.e., the USSR was not able to cut the deals with the West that the PRC did.

Wolff also has an interesting video: 3 Basic Kinds of Socialism
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=p7x7oVwhHok

Radiance3

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Chinese are thieves. They had been stealing our Intellectual Properties for years. China has encroached all over the Pacific and have built military base at the Spratly Islands that they don't own. Japan, South Korea, the Philippines, and others own these islands.

China's trade war with US. China devalued their yuan currency so low, so that they manipulate trades with all other countries. Their biggest market is the US.

Therefore values of their exports to US and other countries are so low that will attract foreign buyer to buy more of their exports. On the other hand US exports get higher so that will minimize our sales to China and others. This will hurt our economy.

I am not sure how else to rectify this problem at the moment. Stocks are doing down so much right now.
My investments go down also.

acknowledgeurma

Some might say these are the results of China's embrace of Capitalism.

son of witless

We do not have to trade with China. We can get stuff from other countries. During this trade war American companies are finding new suppliers. China cannot find another market to replace the American market. That is our leverage over them. They have a few materials we can't get other places like rare earths, but we can develop new supplies even for them over time.

Trump is the first Leader to recognize the danger from China and also the opportunity we have to deal with them. I would not fear the Russians interfering in our e******ns as much as I would fear China.

Radiance3

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China has now lots of problems with Hongkong.

I would suggest to replace "capitalism" with "free market economy", which is what we have now.

Capitalism is a political term left from the word of Karl Marx.

China imitated the free market economy under a c*******t rule. They have successfully delivered effective results.

All socialist/c*******t countries except China, use socialism under government control economy. That is what the 20 democrat candidates are preaching right now.

son of witless

They want to rule us. They know they can sell this crap to their v**ers.

Radiance3

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I think China is the most dangerous facing our country at present. I think president Trump must get various other countries in the Far East to engage in a mutual trade.

I think Russia is less dangerous than China. Except Russia's nuclear strength, Russia has a weaker economy. After the Cold War in 1991, the people of Russia wanted to have closer relation with the US. They are Christian Orthodox.