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Jul 11, 2019 16:17:35   #
jack sequim wa (a regular here)
 
Earthquake Forecasting is like weather forecasting. I warned several days ahead of time and the 6.5 struck California. My next warning for something bigger and the 7.1 struck.
Then I warned of a 7.5 - 7.6 5 day watch that expires tonight at midnight, but I'm canceling that warning early.
Hey two out of three.
I would rather be wrong and have warned than have you buried under ruble.

Here's what's happening and I said these in several of my updates. This is unprecedented... I have never before had a 2 mile long by 100 foot wide crack in the earth's crust, now nearly 3 miles long occur in an area I'm forecasting.
Another unprecedented event is the 2000 plus earthquakes including micro quakes or now 400 per day 1.0 and greater earthquakes per day stall or log jam going on 10+ days.
These earthquakes in the Ridgecrest are now creeping along the Garland fault that runs into the San Andreas fault. There have been some 25,000 earthquakes in the Ridgecrest region all at volcanic sites, either volcanoes, spatter cones, cinder cones, deformations in the earth's crust until the last few days when this log jam of earthquake activity began slowing turning west, going west on the Garland fault. This is unprecedented because earthquake energy that moves south down through California "Always" moves east and not west.

I was looking for the energy to move east, first Texas and then Oklahoma, Colorado, Kansas and so far only a small trickle of energy has released at points on the edge of the Craton.

MOVING TOWARDS THE SAN ANDREAS FAULT,,, I Said in my forecast that if energy continued to build and not move east that I was concerned it would push into the San Andreas fault.

Now a new 6.0 deep earthquake struck in Indonesia which at over 500 Km I will add a full magnitude and now we will have 7.0 earthquakes spreading out, heading up to Japan then Alaska before going down to the Juan D Fuca fault.

Had you been reading my forecast and updates then you know that the Juan D Fuca fault has another push of earthquake energy moving in now on an already loaded fault that will release into California and add more energy to all of the existing energy in the Ridgecrest region that except for the slow creeping on the Garland fault is stuck or log jammed and now another large amount of energy will be joining this from the deep earthquake in Indonesia that happened today. Well expect to see this energy enter in the next 10 days or less but I'm getting ahead of myself, that will be a new forecast.

As I stated this is unprecedented with unknowns but when I calculate in the norms, I'm putting a watch on San Andreas fault. I'll be watching to see if this energy transfers in and how much moves to the east.

Coukd there still be a 7.5-7.6 earthquake. Like weather forecasting I placed a 5 day watch and very rarely am I wrong. Sometimes when I put a five day it happens in two days and several times my watch has expired and two days later it hits.

Understanding the odds. There are over 200 million square miles on the earth and so for me to forecast accurately a state and then a region and a city is about one in a million odds. Then for me to have a hit within 7 days is odds of about 1 in 52. But then to forecast within a magnitude is one in one hundred million.
So to forecast (as an example, Western Texas within 7 days and a 4 5 will strike.... Then 5 days later at western Texas a 4. 1 strikes... That's the odds in the billions or the odds of winning the Powerball.

Keep up with my forecasting, watches and updates because we have California as a major concern, unprecedented earthquake activity that may not end well and I'm spending day and night watching when, where earthquakes are striking so that I can form forecast and warn people out of harms way.

Again, if you live anywhere in a state along the edge of the Craton, then you may may see a 5, 6 and possibly even a 7.0 earthquake in the the ten days. I'll be refining locations and magnitudes with updates.

I'm typing this out on my smart phone, tired with little sleep. Forgive me the many typing errors..


Be safe,
Be prepared,
Jack

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Jul 11, 2019 17:43:22   #
peg w
 
Earthquakes are notorious difficult to predict. I heard yesterday that that USGS gave a ten percent chance that these quaked would result in the big one. Its good to stay vigulent.

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Jul 11, 2019 18:04:08   #
jack sequim wa (a regular here)
 
peg w wrote:
Earthquakes are notorious difficult to predict. I heard yesterday that that USGS gave a ten percent chance that these quaked would result in the big one. Its good to stay vigulent.



The USGS is nothing but hacks when it comes to forecasting, and tons of false information.
Consitantly I prove over an 80% accuracy in forecasting.

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Jul 11, 2019 19:48:34   #
Peewee (a regular here)
 
jack sequim wa wrote:
The USGS is nothing but hacks when it comes to forecasting, and tons of false information.
Consitantly I prove over an 80% accuracy in forecasting.


Whenever you are rested and have time, I'd love to hear your input of the poles shifting and if you think the Earth's crust could become fluid and totally slip and rearrange the continents as it appears to have happened in the past. You need a web site soon to publish your findings. I might be able to hook you up with some other web sites that might help you get the data out. But you would have to sell them on your data and research. Let me know and I'll try to help.

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Jul 11, 2019 21:15:25   #
jack sequim wa (a regular here)
 
I'd appreciate a more detailed discussion but I'll give you a very brief cursery.
If you study Google Earth you can see where the plates where compared to where they are now. It debunks the Pangea theory.

Earthquakes put out VRF waves and the only thing we (science) knows that puts put VRF waves are the Aurora's. VRF is Plasma..... Earthquake waves are Plasma.
Don't quote me on the year, I seem to think it was the late 1700's the first theory of the earth having a solid core and that has stuck and still taught in university's today.
The earth like a battery has two poles that are negative and positive.

Notice that when the sun puts out strong flares 'CME' S that earthquakes increase in both intensity and magnitude? CME's are electrical energy that charge the earth's core.

Now this brings me to, if the earth's core is not solid metals, then what is it? Plasma energy.

The earth is like an engine with strong explosions that put out VRF waves and these waves cause earthquakes.
Science tries poorly to explain why some earthquakes and Volcanoes have lightening.... Hmmm

That's explaining in a nut shell.

We can be thankful that during the last few weeks the sun has not been throwing CME's our way.

I'll take you up and listen to your input, I'm in no way a tech type. Basic understanding of websites at best.

Thank you my friend,

God Bless,
Jack

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Jul 11, 2019 21:35:20   #
Peewee (a regular here)
 
jack sequim wa wrote:
I'd appreciate a more detailed discussion but I'll give you a very brief cursery.
If you study Google Earth you can see where the plates where compared to where they are now. It debunks the Pangea theory.

Earthquakes put out VRF waves and the only thing we (science) knows that puts put VRF waves are the Aurora's. VRF is Plasma..... Earthquake waves are Plasma.
Don't quote me on the year, I seem to think it was the late 1700's the first theory of the earth having a solid core and that has stuck and still taught in university's today.
The earth like a battery has two poles that are negative and positive.

Notice that when the sun puts out strong flares 'CME' S that earthquakes increase in both intensity and magnitude? CME's are electrical energy that charge the earth's core.

Now this brings me to, if the earth's core is not solid metals, then what is it? Plasma energy.

The earth is like an engine with strong explosions that put out VRF waves and these waves cause earthquakes.
Science tries poorly to explain why some earthquakes and Volcanoes have lightening.... Hmmm

That's explaining in a nut shell.

We can be thankful that during the last few weeks the sun has not been throwing CME's our way.

I'll take you up and listen to your input, I'm in no way a tech type. Basic understanding of websites at best.

Thank you my friend,

God Bless,
Jack
I'd appreciate a more detailed discussion but I'll... (show quote)


A sincere thanks, Jack. That explanation makes a lot of sense to me. What was that movie, A Brillant or Beautiful Mind? Either way, you have one.

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Jul 11, 2019 23:47:49   #
EmilyD (a regular here)
 
Peewee wrote:
Whenever you are rested and have time, I'd love to hear your input of the poles shifting and if you think the Earth's crust could become fluid and totally slip and rearrange the continents as it appears to have happened in the past. You need a web site soon to publish your findings. I might be able to hook you up with some other web sites that might help you get the data out. But you would have to sell them on your data and research. Let me know and I'll try to help.
Whenever you are rested and have time, I'd love to... (show quote)

Ditto here! My nephew is thinking of buying in Malibu, Carmel, Del Mar and/or San Luis Obispo. He is interested in your predictions. He wants to know if you have a web site or suggestions to web sites that predict what you predict? Thanks.

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Jul 12, 2019 00:08:20   #
jack sequim wa (a regular here)
 
Peewee wrote:
A sincere thanks, Jack. That explanation makes a lot of sense to me. What was that movie, A Brillant or Beautiful Mind? Either way, you have one.


How's that saying go "Flatery will get you everything" but then "Pride comes before the fall"
I can count on one hand the number of people that can forecast earthquakes. I fortunate not to be a prideful person, my challenge is to convince people and trying not to sound prideful like.

The methodology to forecast earthquakes is very simple. I am learning that most whom say they want to learn are not willing to do the leg work of tracking earthquakes, which is looking up the notifications from a few reporting agencies, looking first for deep earthquakes, then looking up the coordinates on Google Earth to see why an earthquake hit at that location ( what type of volcanic formation or man drill points, following the path of shallow earthquakes and magnitudes. There are several nuances but that's the nuts and bolts.

After a few months if I never revealed where deep earthquakes strike, anyone could figure it out since they are only at 5 common locations 9 total. 100% of every earthquake is spawned from a deep earthquake.

The USGS denies this. So I have to ask the question. Isn't proof in science observation of something that repeats itself without change 100%of the time?
But contact the USGS and tell them of a discovery, Twitter them, only to be harrased and have your site shutdown. They go into attack mode to defend their false science. Give them evidence of my forecasting the 6.5 and 7.1 on this forum a week+ before they happened and they would accuse of manipulating the forum date stamps and I would be shut down on this forum with the possibility of the entire forum being shut down and all my post deleted when it opened up again. That's the genius of the "Professionals" at the USGS.

God Bless
Jack

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Jul 12, 2019 01:56:22   #
jack sequim wa (a regular here)
 
EmilyD wrote:
Ditto here! My nephew is thinking of buying in Malibu, Carmel, Del Mar and/or San Luis Obispo. He is interested in your predictions. He wants to know if you have a web site site or suggestions to web sites that predict what you predict? Thanks.




I left California 6 weeks ago and in my thinking the Southern (Earthquake capital of the world) portion of the San Andreas fault scares the heck out of me. Not for what hollyweird has made movies of California falling into the ocean, it won't. But because of the damage an 8.0-8.5 earthquake can do and their are a few that believe the San Andreas fault may be what's referred to as a "Supersonic" slip fault. It moves side by side not one side pushing up and the other side down. If supersonic it could move several hundred meters at 700+ MPH and shaking would last for 2 minutes.

I looked at Google Earth in the Carmel area

36°23'17"N 122°15'20"W

Here are the coordinates. There are two very large laclolyths. One bulging and the other collapsed. Pan out farther off shore to see several underwater volcanoes. These are thinner points in the earth's crust and at some point in the earthquake events (circumstances, scenarios) align in the west (Indonesia region) the energy could travel accross the cracks in the earth's crust (see on Google Earth) from Indonesia to the California coast.
This is a common occurrence in South America that has consistently large earthquakes (recent 8.0). When energy from Indonesia travels across the crack in the earth's crust to South America it is something like a locomotive traveling full speed and hitting a wall. That's what happens when the earthquake energy hits the South American plate and why earth's o many volcanoes erupting and large earthquakes.
Also on Google Earth east of Carmel you can see hundreds of miles of volcanic deformations, ancient lava flows that also are thin points in the earth's crust. Thin points in the crust is where earthquake energy seeks out under the crust resulting in earthquakes. Magma seeks out thin points in the earth's crust and punches through creating volcanoes and volcanic deformations, lava fields ect. Unfortunately California is made up of these features and more than any other state.
The USGS just about 8 months ago declared the long valley super volcano as active with over 1000 square miles of melt below it. I would say it has many times more chances of being a problem than the Yellowstone Super Volcano. Also I have found two other super volcanoes that have active earthquake activity not yet declared a super volcano or active by the USGS. Oregon state has 3 super volcanoes and a half dozen ancient. I'm not impressed with "Ancient" since just in the last year several "Ancient" Volcanoes were classified as active.

I don't believe people should live in fear or let what might happen dictate their lives but I also wouldn't knowingly build a house in tornado alley, in the path of hurricanes or where the odds are high a powerful earthquake could damage bridges, overpasses, knock out water, sewer, electrical and even put myself or loved ones in harms way.

Most faults are limited to the magnitude an earthquake can be. Most faults can only produce earthquakes in the 5 or upper 6 magnitude with rare in the low 7 magnitudes. If you look at a fault map of Southern California it is cluttered with faults (hundreds). 90%+ of earthquakes occurs at volcanic points or man drill points and when earthquakes do migrate to faults in the case of Southern California there can be swarms moving from fault to fault when they are in such close proximity.

I'll have my website up and running within two months if you want to private message your email address I'll send you my website info at that time.

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