One Political PlazaSM - Home of politics
Trump's Tariffs & China Trade War
If you want to reply, then register here. Registration is free and your account is created instantly, so you can post right away.
Page: 1 2 next>>
May 14, 2019 12:09:07   #
dtucker300 (a regular here)
 
https://amac.us/trade-with-china-in-flux-but-sky-is-not-falling/?campaign=daily-news-email

Trade with China in Flux, But Sky is Not Falling
Posted Tuesday, May 14, 2019 | By Robert B. Charles | 6 Comments
Share Tweet Email
China
Everyone on Monday was in a frenzy, funk or fit of fear. The stock market dropped 617 points. Pundits on right, left and center (fewer every day) predicted the sky was falling. A trade war with China will end the world as we know it. Truth is somewhat different, but then truth does not sell papers.

Here is the truth – in ten facts.

First, the US trade balance with China, that is, the balance of imports to exports in billions – is out of whack. By way of example, from 2012 to 2018, it bounced from $315 to $375 billion dollars; they were taking that much more from us. Not close since 1985, the imbalance rose to $419 billion in 2018 – in favor of China. We sold them $120 billion, while they sold us $539 billion. So, the President has said “enough.” He is right – we are off balance.

Second, the Chinese have made massive investments globally, in the famous “Belt and Road” investment initiative – seeding physical and cyber infrastructure across Asia, Africa, and even Europe. Aims are mixed, but plainly to dominate. Many suspect – with reason – China’s motives are not purely economic, but political. Trump is right, political caution is in order.

Third, China has violated many international norms – some of which helped generate that massive trade imbalance, from gaming the World Trade Organization to currency manipulation (watch just ahead), treating Chinese capital on foreign soil as foreign production, forcing disgorgement of intellectual property, closing markets to some US services, putting tariffs on goods sold in open markets, penetrating US companies and government with cyber- attacks (including OPM), and making law enforcement difficult. So, a fair player? Maybe not.

Fourth, while some argue the point, their military activities have been unprecedented, provocative and unlawful – endangering global security. Their activities in space – including anti-satellite weapons – are in violation of law. On earth, they modernize massive weapons systems, building and militarizing artificial islands in the South China Sea, threatening US and international shipping, work to militarize foreign infrastructure, and continue to threaten Taiwan, occasionally other actors. They too have carrot and stick, and stick is getting bigger.

Fifth, they are egregious offenders of human rights, with a one-child policy that killed tens of millions of children annually via infanticide and late abortions, usually girls. They execute more than 2,400 citizens annually, many for political reasons. They have no appeal, and sometimes just swallow people, like the former head of Interpol, who has vanished. So, rights violations flash.

Sixth, on other fronts, Trump – like no one before him – has said call a spade a spade. He has called China out for failure to enforce sanctions on North Korea and treatment of their people, much as Reagan called out predecessors of Gorbachev – although with less directness. China has at least a million citizens trapped in “reeducation camps” in the Northwest, bleaching out their Muslim religious faith; they also persecute Christians.

Seventh, realism is in order on what Trump has done. What is he asking? He has put 25 percent tariffs on goods Americans can buy from more reasonable partners, because China has not been willing to place agreed provisions in law. Trump does not want a Communist press release. What is that worth? He wants a legally enforceable, structural change in the trade. Reasonable? Yes.

Eighth, is the world coming to an end with China imposing tariffs (read: a tax) on $60 billion on US goods – after Trump put tariffs on $200 billion in Chinese goods? No, this is transactional. This is negotiation by tariff, each taking measure of the other’s seriousness. More to the point, the Chinese had to impose something to save face, even if later codify.

Ninth, the President knows other issues are at stake – one is ending America’s fentanyl crisis, as all the fentanyl comes from China. He has made the point repeatedly, and we might see some mention in the final deal. Another big issue is primacy on 5-G new communications grid, but that is a longer-term issue.

So, what is the endgame? The sky is not falling. A deal might not happen, and if not, life goes on. We might even see internal unrest in China. America’s economy is resilient. The likeliest endgame is simpler, more obvious. What is wanted by Trump is a step forward that is permanent, no more backsliding. Wanted by China are adjustments that make trade stable, growth sustained. Both are more likely to get what they want than not.

Do not expect media to give Trump credit for triggering intergenerational rebalancing, better trade and security terms. That will come when Americans see, after all, good things do take time – and the President’s resolve paid off. Until then, expect to hear the sky is falling. It sells papers, right?

| Reply
May 14, 2019 13:46:15   #
lpnmajor (a regular here)
 
dtucker300 wrote:
https://amac.us/trade-with-china-in-flux-but-sky-is-not-falling/?campaign=daily-news-email

Trade with China in Flux, But Sky is Not Falling
Posted Tuesday, May 14, 2019 | By Robert B. Charles | 6 Comments
Share Tweet Email
China
Everyone on Monday was in a frenzy, funk or fit of fear. The stock market dropped 617 points. Pundits on right, left and center (fewer every day) predicted the sky was falling. A trade war with China will end the world as we know it. Truth is somewhat different, but then truth does not sell papers.

Here is the truth – in ten facts.

First, the US trade balance with China, that is, the balance of imports to exports in billions – is out of whack. By way of example, from 2012 to 2018, it bounced from $315 to $375 billion dollars; they were taking that much more from us. Not close since 1985, the imbalance rose to $419 billion in 2018 – in favor of China. We sold them $120 billion, while they sold us $539 billion. So, the President has said “enough.” He is right – we are off balance.

Second, the Chinese have made massive investments globally, in the famous “Belt and Road” investment initiative – seeding physical and cyber infrastructure across Asia, Africa, and even Europe. Aims are mixed, but plainly to dominate. Many suspect – with reason – China’s motives are not purely economic, but political. Trump is right, political caution is in order.

Third, China has violated many international norms – some of which helped generate that massive trade imbalance, from gaming the World Trade Organization to currency manipulation (watch just ahead), treating Chinese capital on foreign soil as foreign production, forcing disgorgement of intellectual property, closing markets to some US services, putting tariffs on goods sold in open markets, penetrating US companies and government with cyber- attacks (including OPM), and making law enforcement difficult. So, a fair player? Maybe not.

Fourth, while some argue the point, their military activities have been unprecedented, provocative and unlawful – endangering global security. Their activities in space – including anti-satellite weapons – are in violation of law. On earth, they modernize massive weapons systems, building and militarizing artificial islands in the South China Sea, threatening US and international shipping, work to militarize foreign infrastructure, and continue to threaten Taiwan, occasionally other actors. They too have carrot and stick, and stick is getting bigger.

Fifth, they are egregious offenders of human rights, with a one-child policy that killed tens of millions of children annually via infanticide and late abortions, usually girls. They execute more than 2,400 citizens annually, many for political reasons. They have no appeal, and sometimes just swallow people, like the former head of Interpol, who has vanished. So, rights violations flash.

Sixth, on other fronts, Trump – like no one before him – has said call a spade a spade. He has called China out for failure to enforce sanctions on North Korea and treatment of their people, much as Reagan called out predecessors of Gorbachev – although with less directness. China has at least a million citizens trapped in “reeducation camps” in the Northwest, bleaching out their Muslim religious faith; they also persecute Christians.

Seventh, realism is in order on what Trump has done. What is he asking? He has put 25 percent tariffs on goods Americans can buy from more reasonable partners, because China has not been willing to place agreed provisions in law. Trump does not want a Communist press release. What is that worth? He wants a legally enforceable, structural change in the trade. Reasonable? Yes.

Eighth, is the world coming to an end with China imposing tariffs (read: a tax) on $60 billion on US goods – after Trump put tariffs on $200 billion in Chinese goods? No, this is transactional. This is negotiation by tariff, each taking measure of the other’s seriousness. More to the point, the Chinese had to impose something to save face, even if later codify.

Ninth, the President knows other issues are at stake – one is ending America’s fentanyl crisis, as all the fentanyl comes from China. He has made the point repeatedly, and we might see some mention in the final deal. Another big issue is primacy on 5-G new communications grid, but that is a longer-term issue.

So, what is the endgame? The sky is not falling. A deal might not happen, and if not, life goes on. We might even see internal unrest in China. America’s economy is resilient. The likeliest endgame is simpler, more obvious. What is wanted by Trump is a step forward that is permanent, no more backsliding. Wanted by China are adjustments that make trade stable, growth sustained. Both are more likely to get what they want than not.

Do not expect media to give Trump credit for triggering intergenerational rebalancing, better trade and security terms. That will come when Americans see, after all, good things do take time – and the President’s resolve paid off. Until then, expect to hear the sky is falling. It sells papers, right?
https://amac.us/trade-with-china-in-flux-but-sky-i... (show quote)


China joined the world trade union along with numerous other countries as well as the US. Instead of tackling China in a concerted effort with our allies in the Trade union, which would be a force multiplier, Trump chose to try to be the tough guy all on his ownself. That, was a colossal, classic, grandiose and bone headed move.

It will take farmers and industry at least 5 years to recover their losses.........................if the trade war ends today. BTW, who is actually hurt by a trade imbalance? Those who import stuff sell the stuff to Americans who want the stuff.........................and pocket billions in profit. No harm, no foul.

| Reply
May 14, 2019 14:08:02   #
dtucker300 (a regular here)
 
lpnmajor wrote:
China joined the world trade union along with numerous other countries as well as the US. Instead of tackling China in a concerted effort with our allies in the Trade union, which would be a force multiplier, Trump chose to try to be the tough guy all on his ownself. That, was a colossal, classic, grandiose and bone headed move.

It will take farmers and industry at least 5 years to recover their losses.........................if the trade war ends today. BTW, who is actually hurt by a trade imbalance? Those who import stuff sell the stuff to Americans who want the stuff.........................and pocket billions in profit. No harm, no foul.
China joined the world trade union along with nume... (show quote)


We are hurt by the theft of intellectual property.

Generally, I do not like tariff wars; they are an economic no gainer and no winners. In this case, Trump might be right because China's economy is flat at the moment and vulnerable. China wants to bully its' way to the top and be the world's super-power. We only export half of what we import from China. China may be in the WTO but they don't play by the rules.

| Reply
May 14, 2019 15:59:16   #
vernon
 
dtucker300 wrote:
We are hurt by the theft of intellectual property.

Generally, I do not like tariff wars; they are an economic no gainer and no winners. In this case, Trump might be right because China's economy is flat at the moment and vulnerable. China wants to bully its' way to the top and be the world's super-power. We only export half of what we import from China. China may be in the WTO but they don't play by the rules.


Hey these libs can't spout anything but hate about trump. They will never admit he has done more for America than the last 4 presidents combined.

| Reply
May 14, 2019 16:00:18   #
vernon
 
vernon wrote:
Hey these libs can't spout anything but hate about trump. They will never admit he has done more for America than the last 4 presidents combined.

| Reply
May 14, 2019 16:47:49   #
lpnmajor (a regular here)
 
dtucker300 wrote:
We are hurt by the theft of intellectual property.

Generally, I do not like tariff wars; they are an economic no gainer and no winners. In this case, Trump might be right because China's economy is flat at the moment and vulnerable. China wants to bully its' way to the top and be the world's super-power. We only export half of what we import from China. China may be in the WTO but they don't play by the rules.


Theft and industrial espionage are different from trade imbalances. Those infractions can be handled by sanctions or law suits brought before the world court. Trade infractions can be handled at the WTO, whereby other countries that trade with China can band together to enact punishments that target the Chinese government itself.

| Reply
May 14, 2019 16:56:03   #
dtucker300 (a regular here)
 
lpnmajor wrote:
Theft and industrial espionage are different from trade imbalances. Those infractions can be handled by sanctions or law suits brought before the world court. Trade infractions can be handled at the WTO, whereby other countries that trade with China can band together to enact punishments that target the Chinese government itself.


Not when it comes to China. And how has all of that been working out for you?! The other countries have been wusses.

| Reply
May 14, 2019 18:24:27   #
permafrost (a regular here)
 
Seems like the orange guy missed the chance when he ash canned the TPP...

No better way to have fought economic wars with China and would not cost the Americans all the money of the scattered tariffs..



| Reply
May 14, 2019 20:21:21   #
Canuckus Deploracus (a regular here)
 
dtucker300 wrote:
https://amac.us/trade-with-china-in-flux-but-sky-is-not-falling/?campaign=daily-news-email

Trade with China in Flux, But Sky is Not Falling
Posted Tuesday, May 14, 2019 | By Robert B. Charles | 6 Comments
Share Tweet Email
China
Everyone on Monday was in a frenzy, funk or fit of fear. The stock market dropped 617 points. Pundits on right, left and center (fewer every day) predicted the sky was falling. A trade war with China will end the world as we know it. Truth is somewhat different, but then truth does not sell papers.

Here is the truth – in ten facts.

First, the US trade balance with China, that is, the balance of imports to exports in billions – is out of whack. By way of example, from 2012 to 2018, it bounced from $315 to $375 billion dollars; they were taking that much more from us. Not close since 1985, the imbalance rose to $419 billion in 2018 – in favor of China. We sold them $120 billion, while they sold us $539 billion. So, the President has said “enough.” He is right – we are off balance.

Second, the Chinese have made massive investments globally, in the famous “Belt and Road” investment initiative – seeding physical and cyber infrastructure across Asia, Africa, and even Europe. Aims are mixed, but plainly to dominate. Many suspect – with reason – China’s motives are not purely economic, but political. Trump is right, political caution is in order.

Third, China has violated many international norms – some of which helped generate that massive trade imbalance, from gaming the World Trade Organization to currency manipulation (watch just ahead), treating Chinese capital on foreign soil as foreign production, forcing disgorgement of intellectual property, closing markets to some US services, putting tariffs on goods sold in open markets, penetrating US companies and government with cyber- attacks (including OPM), and making law enforcement difficult. So, a fair player? Maybe not.

Fourth, while some argue the point, their military activities have been unprecedented, provocative and unlawful – endangering global security. Their activities in space – including anti-satellite weapons – are in violation of law. On earth, they modernize massive weapons systems, building and militarizing artificial islands in the South China Sea, threatening US and international shipping, work to militarize foreign infrastructure, and continue to threaten Taiwan, occasionally other actors. They too have carrot and stick, and stick is getting bigger.

Fifth, they are egregious offenders of human rights, with a one-child policy that killed tens of millions of children annually via infanticide and late abortions, usually girls. They execute more than 2,400 citizens annually, many for political reasons. They have no appeal, and sometimes just swallow people, like the former head of Interpol, who has vanished. So, rights violations flash.

Sixth, on other fronts, Trump – like no one before him – has said call a spade a spade. He has called China out for failure to enforce sanctions on North Korea and treatment of their people, much as Reagan called out predecessors of Gorbachev – although with less directness. China has at least a million citizens trapped in “reeducation camps” in the Northwest, bleaching out their Muslim religious faith; they also persecute Christians.

Seventh, realism is in order on what Trump has done. What is he asking? He has put 25 percent tariffs on goods Americans can buy from more reasonable partners, because China has not been willing to place agreed provisions in law. Trump does not want a Communist press release. What is that worth? He wants a legally enforceable, structural change in the trade. Reasonable? Yes.

Eighth, is the world coming to an end with China imposing tariffs (read: a tax) on $60 billion on US goods – after Trump put tariffs on $200 billion in Chinese goods? No, this is transactional. This is negotiation by tariff, each taking measure of the other’s seriousness. More to the point, the Chinese had to impose something to save face, even if later codify.

Ninth, the President knows other issues are at stake – one is ending America’s fentanyl crisis, as all the fentanyl comes from China. He has made the point repeatedly, and we might see some mention in the final deal. Another big issue is primacy on 5-G new communications grid, but that is a longer-term issue.

So, what is the endgame? The sky is not falling. A deal might not happen, and if not, life goes on. We might even see internal unrest in China. America’s economy is resilient. The likeliest endgame is simpler, more obvious. What is wanted by Trump is a step forward that is permanent, no more backsliding. Wanted by China are adjustments that make trade stable, growth sustained. Both are more likely to get what they want than not.

Do not expect media to give Trump credit for triggering intergenerational rebalancing, better trade and security terms. That will come when Americans see, after all, good things do take time – and the President’s resolve paid off. Until then, expect to hear the sky is falling. It sells papers, right?
https://amac.us/trade-with-china-in-flux-but-sky-i... (show quote)


One Child Policy is no longer in effect.... The article needs to catch up... And it was always legal to have more than one child... There were simply punishments for it...

Criminals are allowed a single appeal... It is handled much faster than in the West...

Thankfully this article got the part about the reeducation camps correct... A million inmates.. Not all (or most) are muslims...

The rest of the article is a pretty decent job...
I find myself in agreement with its premises...

Thanks Tucker

| Reply
May 14, 2019 21:02:10   #
dtucker300 (a regular here)
 
Canuckus Deploracus wrote:
One Child Policy is no longer in effect.... The article needs to catch up... And it was always legal to have more than one child... There were simply punishments for it...

Criminals are allowed a single appeal... It is handled much faster than in the West...

Thankfully this article got the part about the reeducation camps correct... A million inmates.. Not all (or most) are muslims...

The rest of the article is a pretty decent job...
I find myself in agreement with its premises...

Thanks Tucker
One Child Policy is no longer in effect.... The ar... (show quote)


Yah. I saw that but didn't think too much about it because so many Chinese families are still choosing to have one child by aborting girls in favor of boys. It's true that the one-child policy was ignored in parts of China during the Mao Revolution.

| Reply
May 14, 2019 23:15:33   #
Canuckus Deploracus (a regular here)
 
dtucker300 wrote:
Yah. I saw that but didn't think too much about it because so many Chinese families are still choosing to have one child by aborting girls in favor of boys. It's true that the one-child policy was ignored in parts of China during the Mao Revolution.


Today it is illegal to have sex based abortions... Though you are quite correct that it was a large problem and now there is an imbalance between the population concerning males and females...

The Policy was not ignored...
Having a second child disqualified the parents from many jobs and was punishable by fines and the child not being given entitlements...
Very common amongst the rural communities and the poorer areas of China...

It should be mentioned that in certain areas forced abortions did occur... A black stain on china's history to be sure...

| Reply
May 14, 2019 23:23:27   #
dtucker300 (a regular here)
 
Canuckus Deploracus wrote:
Today it is illegal to have sex based abortions... Though you are quite correct that it was a large problem and now there is an imbalance between the population concerning males and females...

The Policy was not ignored...
Having a second child disqualified the parents from many jobs and was punishable by fines and the child not being given entitlements...
Very common amongst the rural communities and the poorer areas of China...

It should be mentioned that in certain areas forced abortions did occur... A black stain on china's history to be sure...
Today it is illegal to have sex based abortions...... (show quote)



It is Illegal (sex-based abortion) and it still occurs (underground), but at a fraction of what it used to be; also DNA testing to pre-select the sex of a child. Another problem, to open a can of worms so to speak, is the number Chinese women nationals who are nearing the end of their pregnancy and fly to LA, SF, etc. and have their baby delivered while here, thus making the child a U.S. citizen. Birth Right citizenship should be abolished for people who are not legal resident aliens or citizens. People justify this based on the 13-15th amendment that gave former slaves full citizenship and such.

I surmise from your comments that you are pro-life. I believe that someday we, in the U.S.A. will look back and see Roe v. Wade as the Great American Holocaust. I pray for them and their victims and believe God will forgive them.

| Reply
May 15, 2019 01:59:01   #
Canuckus Deploracus (a regular here)
 
dtucker300 wrote:
It is Illegal (sex-based abortion) and it still occurs (underground), but at a fraction of what it used to be; also DNA testing to pre-select the sex of a child. Another problem, to open a can of worms so to speak, is the number Chinese women nationals who are nearing the end of their pregnancy and fly to LA, SF, etc. and have their baby delivered while here, thus making the child a U.S. citizen. Birth Right citizenship should be abolished for people who are not legal resident aliens or citizens. People justify this based on the 13-15th amendment that gave former slaves full citizenship and such.
It is Illegal (sex-based abortion) and it still oc... (show quote)


Absolutely... It does still go on... Although the penalties are quite harsh... It took more than a few favors to learn what sex my child was before the the legal date...

And Absolutely.. There is actually a market here to send pregnant women to the US to gain birthright citizenship for their children...
It is disgusting that the US allows it...

I have seen the justification for giving birthright citizenship to foreign born children....
It is a misinterpretation of the Amendment... In my opinion...

Quote:
I surmise from your comments that you are pro-life. I believe that someday we, in the U.S.A. will look back and see Roe v. Wade as the Great American Holocaust. I pray for them and their victims and believe God will forgive them.


Yes... Although I deplore labels, I would be considered pro-life... Abortion is a necessity upon rare (and horrifying) occasion...
But it should never be used for convenience...

My prayers for the lives lost... And for those who have stumbled and made such a terrible choice.. May the Lord raise up the lost children among His Angels... And may He grant His Grace and Wisdom to those who have sinned... Amen...

| Reply
May 15, 2019 09:58:43   #
America 1 (a regular here)
 
lpnmajor wrote:
China joined the world trade union along with numerous other countries as well as the US. Instead of tackling China in a concerted effort with our allies in the Trade union, which would be a force multiplier, Trump chose to try to be the tough guy all on his ownself. That, was a colossal, classic, grandiose and bone headed move.

It will take farmers and industry at least 5 years to recover their losses.........................if the trade war ends today. BTW, who is actually hurt by a trade imbalance? Those who import stuff sell the stuff to Americans who want the stuff.........................and pocket billions in profit. No harm, no foul.
China joined the world trade union along with nume... (show quote)


Farmers are not hurting at today's grain prices.
ZWN19
Wheat (Jul '19)
462-2
+13-6

ZCN19
Corn (Jul '19)
379-6
+11-0

ZSN19
Soybean (Jul '19)
846-6
+15-2

ZMN19
Soybean Meal (Jul '19)
304.3
+6.3

KEN19
Hard Red Wheat (Jul '19)
422-6
+14-0

MWN19
Spring Wheat (Jul '19)
534-4
+11-2

| Reply
May 15, 2019 10:16:05   #
permafrost (a regular here)
 
America 1 wrote:
Farmers are not hurting at today's grain prices.
ZWN19
Wheat (Jul '19)
462-2
+13-6

ZCN19
Corn (Jul '19)
379-6
+11-0

ZSN19
Soybean (Jul '19)
846-6
+15-2

ZMN19
Soybean Meal (Jul '19)
304.3
+6.3

KEN19
Hard Red Wheat (Jul '19)
422-6
+14-0

MWN19
Spring Wheat (Jul '19)
534-4
+11-2





You better double check you information for break even production cost...



| Reply
Page: 1 2 next>>
If you want to reply, then register here. Registration is free and your account is created instantly, so you can post right away.
OnePoliticalPlaza.com - Forum
Copyright 2012-2019 IDF International Technologies, Inc.