Sicilianthing

This Deal is a sham and shows Trump has done nothing to abolish the tenets which violate our Sovereignty.


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Here's Trump's USMCA - The New NAFTA 2018
Just keep in mind that the point of NAFTA is not fair trade, but a North American Union.

By: TIM BROWN
OCTOBER 1, 2018

So, the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) is steadily going to forge ahead with some slight differences, if agreed upon by the US Senate. The new US Mexico Canada Agreement, which is legally referred to as NAFTA 2018, was an eleventh-hour deal struck on September 30.

Immediately, some were already questioning why call it USMCA when the legal document itself refers to it as NAFTA 2018.

Of course, some of that confusion is due to the fact that the document has not been finalized.

There are four main points in the agreement. According to Zero Hedge:

Canada agreed to ease protections on its dairy market, among them, it will now provide US access to about 3.5% of the market (Canada is likely to compensate dairy farmers);

The US relented on its demand to eliminate the dispute settlement system on Chapter 19, a big win for Canada;

Canada agreed to the terms of the US-Mexico deal, among them a de minimis of US$100 (the amount of imports without duties, which in NAFTA is US$20), stricter rules of origin for autos, a 10 year sunset clause with a 6 year revision and an update on several topics from labor to commerce to intellectual property; and

The US and Canada reached an agreement to protect Canada's autos from high auto tariffs if the US imposes them under law 232 with a quota of 2.6 million vehicles exported. The latter is similar to the "side-letter" that Mexico agreed with the US that protects 2.4 million vehicles. So far there are no exemptions from steel and aluminum tariffs.

However, there are things are outlined in NAFTA 2018. According to the Wall Street Journal, there are ten things that stand out in the agreement.

Automaking

The new three-country pact would require auto makers to build a greater portion of a car in North America and with higher-wage workers to avoid duties when a car crosses borders.

That would be a relative win for Detroit’s Big Three auto makers, which rely heavily on factories in Canada and Mexico for the U.S. market and can now move forward with factory investments with greater clarity. Car makers from Europe and Asia with plants in Canada and Mexico would also get more clarity, but provisions about local components and export limits could complicate operations. The deal also would be a win for American auto workers and their labor unions.

New rules would require at least two-fifths of a vehicle that is eligible for duty-free trade in North America to originate from workers earning at least $16 an hour. Think of it as a cap on the amount of parts coming from low-wage Mexico. But companies would get credit for high-wage research and development.

Agriculture

Farmers and agribusinesses welcomed the agreement, as it would likely preserve tens of billions of dollars in farm goods traded annually across the countries’ borders. It also should prompt the U.S., Canada and Mexico to each remove tariffs on one another’s products that have hurt U.S. prices for pork, cheese and other foodstuffs. Mexico and Canada have become critical pillars of demand and supply for the U.S. food and agriculture industry since Nafta took effect in 1994.

Meanwhile, U.S. dairy farmers got what they asked for with Canada agreeing to drop its complex “Class 7” quota and pricing system, which limited imports of certain dairy products from the U.S. That is likely to win praise from lawmakers from milk-rich U.S. states, but it could have political ramifications in Canada.

Manufacturing

U.S. manufacturers welcome anything that precludes further disruption for companies that have spread their operations and supply chains across the continent in the past quarter-century. “Manufacturers are extremely encouraged that our call for a trilateral agreement between the United States, Canada and Mexico has been answered,” said Jay Timmons, chief executive of the National Association of Manufacturers, in a statement. Manufacturing trade groups said they would scrutinize specifics of the deal as they are released.

Steel

The agreement would leave in place Trump administration tariffs on imported steel and aluminum, as U.S. negotiators have insisted that any changes to U.S. duties on steel and aluminum that took effect in June be addressed separately from a broader trade deal. U.S. trade negotiators will face pressure from domestic steel producers to keep in place a tariff that has given them leverage to raise prices. Those higher prices have allowed U.S. producers to improve margins and expand production at domestic plants. Steel and aluminum trade groups didn’t respond immediately to requests for comment on Monday.

Sunset clause

The agreement would face a “sunset” in 16 years, if it isn’t actively renewed or renegotiated. The three countries would meet every six years to decide whether to renew the pact, potentially keeping Nafta-pocalypse 16 years in the future in perpetuity. Canadian and Mexican officials say the uncertainty of sunset clauses undermines investment in their countries. Still, companies are somewhat pleased the Trump administration didn’t get the five-year sunset clause it was seeking.

Exchange-rate curbs

In a global first, the new pact would include enforceable rules to deter countries from artificially weakening their exchange rates to gain trade advantages. While the U.S., Canada and Mexico aren’t regularly blamed for this kind of infraction, the auto industry and its allies hope the rules would be included in deals with Asian countries in the future.

Dispute resolution

Nafta includes mind-numbingly complex systems to hold countries to account when they bend or break trade rules. Trump administration officials are wary of systems that can overrule the U.S. government and have sought to weaken the dispute-resolution systems. One system that allows foreign companies to challenge governments—investor-state dispute settlement, or ISDS—has been sharply scaled back in the new blueprint.

Tariff reviews

Canadian officials fought to keep another arbitration system that allows the country to challenge U.S. duties on allegedly dumped or subsidized Canadian imports, for example. U.S. trade representative Robert Lighthizer and American lumber producers had wanted to scrap the system, but in a victory for Ottawa, the U.S. agreed to keep the system, contained in Chapter 19 of the current Nafta.

Tariff relief

Under its agreement last month, Mexico would be protected from the brunt of any national-security tariffs the Trump administration is considering on vehicles and auto parts, and Canada got a similar deal, a U.S. official said late Sunday. But Mr. Lighthizer said Monday that any respite for Canada from steel and aluminum tariffs would have to be negotiated separately, and Mr. Trump defended his use of tariffs.

Deal preserves trilateral trade deal in North America

The USMCA preserves the trilateral nature of NAFTA, which reduces uncertainty in the region.
At least some pent-up investment may be deployed as a result.
The deal also reduces risk premium and is therefore supportive of Canadian assets such as CAD.
It also clears the way for the Bank of Canada to continue hiking (we expect the next hike in October).

USMCA constitutes a win for US president Donald Trump and reduces the risk of escalation of global trade wars, as it provides a path for other trade deals such as an eventual US-China agreement. David Woo believes this agreement could send US rates higher and that it is bullish for cyclical assets.

Next step is for 3 leaders to sign new NAFTA on Nov 30

The USMCA is expected to be signed by leaders of the three countries in 60 days, on November 30, and to be v**ed by Congresses/Parliament afterwards, most likely in 2019. In the meantime, NAFTA remains in effect. For USMCA to come into effect it will need to be approved by simple majority in both houses of US Congress (starting with the House), by simple majority in the Canadian Parliament and by qualified majority (2/3) in the Mexican Senate (which AMLO should be able to get without much trouble).

So far, the tariffs have been a disaster all the way around. I'm wondering just how well the new NAFTA will really be different from the old one. Just keep in mind that the point of NAFTA is not fair trade, but a North American Union.

Seth

Actually, during the George W. Bush Administration this WAS an intended goal, with the SPP (Security and Prosperity Partnership of North America), when Bush and his counterparts in Mexico and Canada endeavored to spring this concept on us in a stealthy way, including an end run around Congress.

The SPP held summits wherein only the three leaders and the U.S. Foreign Relations Committee were permitted access, no media allowed.

Their goal was to have a North American Union under the SPP© brand established by 2010, but it never reached fruition.

That said, a North American Union would be the farthest thing from President Trump's mind, because unlike our "esteemed" political left, this POTUS has demonstrated rather forcefully that he believes completely in U.S. sovereignty.

You'll also note that he was an avid supporter of Brexit, and in his recent U.N. address he made it quite plain that he disapproves of any country thus (such as EU members) giving up their respective sovereignties for a t***snational collective.

Therefore, I believe that wherever this theory that the Trump Administration would countenance a North American Union originated, it should be returned to with a note that a conspiracy theory should have a better foundation if it is even to be considered.

Sicilianthing

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I can see your points and I will read the entire bill when I get my hands on it to see if Trump has removed the threats, but if he hasn’t then what will you think and say ?

Seth

The same, because I firmly believe that what Trump is doing is simply trying to even the economic playing field. For many decades, our trade relationships with other countries, including our two neighbors, has been badly skewed so that it has cost Americans jobs while creating employment in other countries.

President Trump's intention is to do what our government is supposed to do -- maintain a favorable environment for the businesses that provide jobs for Americans, which in turn creates more tax revenue while eliminating the taxpayers' expense of having to prop up unemployed citizens.

Remember, he is a businessman, not a politician, and what he's doing is simply good business without political motives, totally results oriented.

The problem many people have with this concept is that we're accustomed to being governed by professional politicians who have little to no seat of the pants private sector business experience; they only specialize in running for office, giving political speeches and spending the people's money.

Trump doesn't fit that template, so he's viewed with misplaced suspicion. He is our employee, and he is giving us the kind of devotion and hard work he expects from his own employees as a private sector businessman.

As far as his trade agreements with Mexico and Canada are concerned, they're getting no different treatment than any of our other trading partners around the world, on an America First basis. The three country agreement is set up as such only because it replaces NAFTA.
=Sicilianthing]>>>>

I can see your points and I will read the entire bill when I get my hands on it to see if Trump has removed the threats, but if he hasn’t then what will you think and say ?[/quote]

Seth

[/quote]
Oops, I put my reply before your comment. I'll get this right yet...

kemmer

[/quote]
Trump doesn’t know anything about tariffs—or much of anything else about running a government. He’s a “shoot-from-the-hip-and-hope-for-the-best” boy blunder.

Seth

Be that as it may, what he is doing, tariffs included, is getting results favorable to the United States. Even China has begun lowering some of their tariffs on American imports -- if you look for news of that at Google, you may have to get past a few pages to where positive news regarding Trump is buried.

All Trump has to know is basic math, asset/ deficit stuff, to know when we're being short changed. It's not rocket science.

As far as shooting from the hip goes, his marksmanship so far has proven itself a whole lot more accurate than his predecessor's.

kemmer

Now if only no one cared about g****l w*****g, losing allies, being laughed at, or coal waste again being dumped into our streams and rivers.

Seth

[quote=kemmer]Now if only no one cared about g****l w*****g, losing allies, being laughed at, or coal waste again being dumped into our streams and rivers.[/quote

It's easy for the many who are employed and living well to embrace social issues and environmental concerns while not giving much thought to the fortunes and/ or misfortunes of fellow Americans they have never met nor heard of, nor to the industries and types of jobs they either work at or, for geographic reasons, are available to them. That is largely human nature.

However, it IS the government's job to represent all U.S. citizens, not simply those who live well in major population centers.

Trump, unlike his predecessor, is doing just that.
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Before they deal with social injustice and the environment et al, our leaders need to concern themselves with the basics, such as making sure that Americans have the opportunity to earn a living, not being forced to scrape by on some minimal dole because of well heeled special interests' agendas.

As far as our "allies" are concerned, it's always been the U.S. that finances, protects and defends them at the sacrifice of our own blood and treasure, yet when we need their cooperation we rarely have an easy time getting it. Most of our "allies" have taken advantage of America forever, at least until now. Trump is making them pony up, as with NATO.

As far as the environment goes, while we haven't produced instant gratification, we are well ahead of most other countries in cleaning up the messes generated by the first several decades of the industrial revolution, and we are way ahead of countries like China and India.

Meanwhile, Americans are working and there are projections that by sometime next year unemployment could hit 3%, taxes are lower across the board and wages, those not forced higher through legislation, are rising on their own.

All in all, the country's in much better shape today, at least on the issues that count to most Americans, than it was two years ago.

RT friend Loc: Kangaroo valley NSW Australia

China has interpreted USMCA as being the last financial straw that broke the 🐫 back, it could be bluster but add it to three other things and think again.

1. Iran firing missiles 3 miles in a proximity to US troops in Syria.

2. Putin knowing full well that Macron ordered the Il-20 shot down and the French frigate Auvergne fired the deadly missile, Macron was obviously thinking that Putin would say because it was Israel, - that's OK, - and scurry away, - it happened hours after the deal between Putin and Erdogan on Idlib which cancelled the false f**g chemical attack bringing Trump into the war, Macron and Netanyahu were sooo disappointed.

But Putin didn't cave and now he's saying Sergel Skripal is a despicable t*****r, the rhetoric has changed.

And Netanyahu is saying that Russia is nothing, while in the same stupid breath the USMAC is threatening to end trade between China - Canada / Mexico.

This will likely cause China to buy into the ME conflict.

3. October, 2 ; 2018 the same day as USMAC announcement, it t***spired in the Pacific Ocean very near the contested Spratly Islands that China sailed at US warship forcing US to change course or collide, missed by 45 yards, that's 41 meters or 123 feet.

Aussie 9 news today "Deadly Chinese drones fly over Middle East battlefields, China is locked out of selling armaments by the US, while a Chinese price tag is less than half price and quality is not as good, or so the article says but already 10 countries are buying KSA, UAE and Iraq among them, probably the quality is no different and the real price for a Country "now" same side as China will "now" be nothing other than putting the product on the market and showing results Saudi Arabia, UAE will doubtless "now" be on the receiving end.

Expect grave threats even all out war.

I hope I'm wrong but I don't think so, I've been on the internet since the Arab Spring started 2012, all the political contingents I supported are still in business, Assad and Sisi I always said would win although their on different sides now, although more of another failed Colour Revolution the Ukraine I got right from day one, I supported Gaddafi but always said he was a mug.

I mean as I said then, why did he tie up with African State not even in the game ?, what was he expecting a miracle, - wasn't it - the wrong job for the right person?.

And so what, ! they let him pitch his tent and have his goats graze on the Elysee grounds 2007, then in 2009 the Italians had him as a exciting *Mystery Guest' at a swanky Aristocrats Party, and most confusing of all in the same visit why did he demand that his "300" ontology students meet with "700" female Italian leaders - what the hell was he studying?, I could never figure that out.

kemmer

Yeah? Like giving huge tax windfalls to corporations which are using it to buy back stock? Big tax breaks to the 1% and small upticks to middle class paychecks? Working to repeal ACA and/or cancel the pre-existing condition clause?
What are you talking about?


Well, to big business and the wealthy anyway.

Seth

Meanwhile, these same businesses are also investing in expansion, hiring more people as a result, and the same year write-offs on new equipment, vehicles, etc creates jobs as well.

Unemployment numbers haven't been decreasing by magic. Bonuses to existing employees, pay increases, all are real.

The malarkey about the tax cuts being for the rich are otherwise BS. The 10k cap on deducting city and state taxes from federal returns, for example -- middle class and below don't pay anywhere near that amount in local income tax. On top of that, the standard deduction is doubled. Again, that only benefits middle class and below.

Cutting corporate tax from the highest on the planet to 21% better enabled U.S. firms to compete globally and sh**canning Obama's overbearing regulations allowed them to operate here instead of outsourcing jobs.

Capitalism is about greed, which is good when it means that jobs are created to accommodate it.

Many of these jobs go to people who can least afford not to be working because they don't earn enough to save much and are mired in the usual: Mortgage, sewage and water, homeowner's insurance, property taxes, car payments, car insurance, utilities, health insurance (when not an employee benefit), kids' education, family entertainment, food and clothing, etc.

Job openings now exceed applicants, which invariably means that wages will increase. In the 1960s and 70s we called it an 'employees market.'

As far as those buybacks are concerned, so what? Anything that eventually puts more money into the company's hands only provides more investment capital, and that means more job creation.

More tax revenue for the government to operate and lower income tax at the same time.

What I'm seeing is our capitalist republic's economy beginning to work like it's supposed to. More able bodied people working for a living rather than sponging off the taxpayer.

More money in people's pockets, therefore more money being spent in the private sector and that in turn creates jobs.

Very simple concept.

Sicilianthing

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You are partly correct in some matters, depends what he really does in the next 4 to 6months and that’s it...

Sicilianthing

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I see thanks for bringing all that into a compressed update... I’m aware of most of them but not all... then again there’s a lot of weird things going on behind the scenes by Central Bankster families.

On April fools 2019, Trump will no longer be able to fool me... we will expose who his real handlers are,

Tick Tock Mr. Trump, you can’t have it both ways.

Seth