Boo_Boo Loc: Jellystone

Today, around 5:00pm (1700 for our military friends) the jury had a few questions for Judge Ellis.

The note asked him if he could "redefine" for them the meaning of "reasonable doubt," the legal threshold for acquitting a defendant. Ellis responded that the prosecutors had to prove their case not "beyond possible doubt," but beyond "doubt based on reason."

Of note; reasonable doubt in law means.....If the jurors or judge have no doubt as to the defendant's guilt, or if their only doubts are unreasonable doubts, then the prosecutor has proven the defendant's guilt beyond a reasonable doubt and the defendant should be pronounced guilty.

So.... what is your take..... will Paul Manaford go free with only a penalty from IRS on his taxes? Or will they find him guilty beyond doubt of all charges and spend the next 10 years awaiting a parole hearing?

Opinions?

BigMike Loc: yerington nv

All it takes is one juror...

EmilyD

IDK, not hearing all the evidence and arguments it's hard to say. However, if there is proof, on paper, that he did what he is accused of and not just what someone is saying happened, then that would be "beyond reasonable doubt" for me. And if he did do this, he should be held accountable. But not for a 305-year sentence! Tax evasion is bad, and he should repay what he owes, but I don't think a long jail time is a "reasonable" punishment - remember, WE have to pay for him to be in jail....but the most amazing thing is that THIS is what Mueller has come up with for his investigation on Trump's collusion with the Russians!! This has nothing, bupkis, zero, nada to do with that investigation and/or Trump.

Boo_Boo Loc: Jellystone

True. They are also asking about the FBAR threshold amounts as they were in 2011 and 2012.
I have a hunch that Mueller lost this case..... I may be wrong.....

Boo_Boo Loc: Jellystone

Agreed.... I do not know if Mueller's team had any documented proof.... they turned over 700 pages of "evidence." Gates did not help Mueller's case and when no witness were called by the defendant, that was a very smart move. It is now up to 6 men and 6 women to decide if Mueller's team proved that Manaford was aware of any problems with his taxes. I am almost certain that Manaford will be hit with IRS fines, but not prison.

EmilyD

Yup. And where does that leave us with Mueller's investigation into Russian collusion with the Trump campaign? Nowhere.

BigMike Loc: yerington nv

Manafort could definitely walk.

Boo_Boo Loc: Jellystone

Manaford's trial was never about President Trump, at least this one. However, if Mueller does not get a guilty..... then it will reflect on all the other cases. He, Mueller, has already offered the Russian businessmen (the first he thought would be a no show) a deal. So, that case is all but lost for him. Then the "dirty 12" he most recently indicted have hired American lawyers.
I think that would also be a dead end for him. So, he is left with a dossier paid for by the FBI and the Democrats. The dossier contains only hearsay, and hearsay is not evidence of guilt.

Boo_Boo Loc: Jellystone

I think he will be fined ..... but that is about all. I have been wrong in the past, but I just have a gut feeling about this.

EmilyD

I think he should fined...heavily, if he is guilty of tax evasion. Why should we pay for Manifort to live in jail for the next 10 years (the prosecution recommends 305 years that we have to pay for!!! - for TAX EVASION...not murder, not treason, not homicide....tax evasion!) or so years while we pay for him to be there. He should pay back what he owes and then pay a huge fine for tax evasion...like millions or double what he owes or something. If they give him jail time then they are on a very slippery slope to give Hillary jail time. What she did is far worse.

Boo_Boo Loc: Jellystone

Fines for tax evasion is set by law. The government is not an entity that can claim personal damage. So, his fine will be collected on the unpaid taxes. If he is not solvent, then he will be given a payment plan. So, unpaid taxes plus the penalty associated, compounded by the number of years the tax was unpaid or not reported. Do keep in mind that Rosenstien (Mueller's boss) took Manaford to court in 2009 for the very same thing and lost. This was a personal vendetta for the FBI. If Manaford is found guilty, the FBI will ask for the maximum sentence, but the judge only need to consider their recommendation. I think that the verdict will be coming down tomorrow..... and the judge will wait until Monday to react.

PeterS

We also don't know if this is the jury or one juror asking the question so if this is a betting game my money is still on Paul spending a lot of time in jail...

JW

I am expecting a hung jury on this one and an all out assault on Manafort in the next trial.

Boo_Boo Loc: Jellystone

If Mueller can not get a guilty on this case then the next case is also lost. All Mueller has now is Manaford, and if he is only fined then Mueller will not be able to dangle a carrot to catch the big fish, our President. Every other person has made a deal to fry each other. Gates to fry Manaford and Papadopoulos to fry Gates and Manaford. The Russian businessmen have essentially won their case.... that leaves only the latest "dirty 12" that has now hired American lawyers and they are not going to appear in court. So.... that one is also a loss for Mueller. So, if he loses the case against Manaford..... even on one charge, he is out of balls. Game over. Even if there is a hung jury, it will not be enough to save Mueller's investigation. It will only waste more tax money.

Going on to the next case, Mueller's star will be Papadopoulos and he gained immunity to testify against Gates and Manaford. Gates will be charged with not reporting his contacts with Russia.... same for Papadopoulos. But, he has immunity and will not face judge or jury.... he will simply walk regardless of what he admits to on the stand. Manaford may have a problem... but, if he registered as a lobbist for a foreign government, then he may get off on that charge too. Also, keep in mind.... all this lobbying happened before President Trump was president.

As a refresher....The first count against Manafort and Gates charges them with conspiracy against the United States. Despite what it might sound like, however, the charge is not related to any allegation of collusion with the Russians to affect the 2016 e******n. Instead, the charge accuses Manafort and Gates of agreeing to do something illegal, in this case not reporting foreign banking activity, their lobbying work for a foreign government, and not t***hfully answering questions about their activities. In legal terms, that means they "conspired to defraud" the country by obstructing the Justice and Treasury departments' functions.

And, Papadopoulos served as a foreign policy adviser to the Trump campaign. He lied to federal investigators about his interactions with a professor with ties to the Kremlin. The professor told Papadopoulos that the Russians had "dirt" on then-candidate Hillary Clinton in the form of "thousands of emails."

Papadopoulos claimed that his interactions with the professor occurred before he joined the campaign.

But "in t***h and in fact," the criminal statement says, Papadopoulos learned he would be an adviser to the campaign in early March, and he met the professor on or about March 14, 2016. The professor "only took interest" in Papadopoulos because of his role in the campaign, and the professor told Papadopoulos about the "thousands of emails" on or about April 26, 2016, when he had been on board with the Trump operation for more than a month.

PeterS

You seem to be reading an awful lot into one question by one or more jurors. How many counts are we talking about here and do you think he is going to walk away without so much as a slap on the wrist? We are taking about bank fraud and tax fraud so do you think he can be found guilty on some charges and acquitted on the others? That means Manafort is still going to be put away for a long time and Mueller will cue up the next trial on his list and on we go until the last domino falls.

I agree with JW that the jury will come in tomorrow so I don't think we will have long to wait on their verdict...