https://www.yahoo.com/news/ap-analysis-finds-democratic-v**ers-hold-enthusiasm-edge-042243584--politics.html

ATLANTA (AP) — Democratic v**ers were more enthusiastic than Republicans in nearly a dozen federal special e******ns since President Donald Trump took office, an Associated Press analysis found, giving party leaders hope that even a series of narrow losses in GOP territory bodes well for them in November.
With the special e******ns now concluded ahead of the fall midterms, an AP review of nine House races and an Alabama special Senate e******n showed Democratic candidates consistently outperforming Republicans compared to the two parties' usual v**e totals in regular general e******ns.
The strong Democratic turnout is a key factor fueling the party's hopes of regaining control of the House in November for the first time in eight years. It's particularly significant because Democrats often struggle to turn out their v**ers when a p**********l candidate isn't on the b****t. The special e******n v****g numbers could signal a change heading into the fall.
The latest indicator came Tuesday in Ohio, where Republican Troy Balderson holds a narrow lead over his Democratic rival, Danny O'Connor, setting up a potential recount in a suburban and small-town congressional district that President Donald T***p w*n by more than 11 percentage points and that Republicans have held since 1980.
The AP review went beyond percentage totals and compared special e******n raw v**e totals to what Republicans and Democrats received from the same e*****rates in 2016. The methodology measures candidates' performance as a percentage of what they could expect in a p**********l year when turnout is highest, with the results suggesting which party's coalition is more engaged and excited about the e******n cycle.
In Ohio, for example, Balderson's 101,500-plus v**es amount to less than half of Trump's total in the district and just 40 percent of what former Rep. Pat Tiberi received in his last re-e******n. O'Connor, meanwhile, pulled in almost 62 percent of Hillary Clinton's 2016 totals and almost 90 percent of what the last Democratic candidate drew alongside the p**********l race.
Altogether, Democrats got a higher proportion than Republicans of the party's usual p**********l v**e in eight out of 11 e******ns. They exceeded Republicans in 10 out 11 races when comparing the special e******n totals to the most recent House or Senate race involving the same e*****rate.
Special e******ns are not a perfect predictor of November, but if those enthusiasm gaps hold for dozens of more fundamentally competitive seats in November, Democrats would stand a strong chance of emerging with the House majority and be poised for statehouse gains, as well.
The data tracks with high-profile special e******n outcomes ahead of the 2010 midterms when Republicans flipped control of the House and many state legislatures. This year, the trends are giving the GOP pause.
"Obviously, this is a tough environment for Republicans," said Corry Bliss, executive director of the Congressional Leadership Fund, a super PAC dev**ed to defending House Republicans' 23-seat majority. An obviously enthusiastic Democratic base, Bliss said, puts the burden on Republican incumbents and open-seat candidates "to give the v**ers a reason to v**e for them."
Trump mocked Democratic optimism this week on Twitter, noting the GOP has a lopsided record in federal special e******ns. Indeed, Republican candidates won seven of the nine special House races. But all seven were Republican seats to begin with, several of them open in the first place because Trump plucked members from supposedly safe seats to join his administration.
Democrats held a California seat, while Democratic Rep. Conor Lamb flipped a Pennsylvania congressional district Trump had won by almost 20 points. Alabama Sen. Doug Jones also pulled a shocker in a December 2017 contest barely a year after T***p w*n the state by 28 points.
"The numbers show a Democratic energy in the e*****rate that Republicans don't have, plus an advantage with independents that Democrats haven't had in a decade," said Democratic pollster Zac McCrary. "That's when waves happen and you win districts you aren't supposed to win."
Certainly, Democrats must contend with a tough Senate map — 10 incumbents are running in states where T***p w*n — and several GOP-run states have drawn congressional districts to Republicans' advantage, particularly in battleground suburbs that could determine House control. Some regular primaries have shown Republican strength as well: Texas Democrats touted a midterm primary turnout record this March as they try to make the state more competitive, but Republicans answered with their own record.

Still, it's worth noting that Republicans demonstrated enthusiasm advantages ahead of their 2010 sweep, most notably in January 2010 when they flipped the Massachusetts Senate seat in a special e******n after Ted Kennedy's death. Republican Scott Brown topped Democrat Martha Coakley by amassing 105 percent of John McCain's 2008 p**********l v**e and 126 percent of what Democrat John Kerry's Senate challenger had mustered 14 months before.
At the time, Democrats mostly blamed Coakley, just as many Republican blamed Lamb's and Jones' opponents for this cycle's upsets.
The strongest overall special e******n turnout during Trump's presidency came in a suburban Atlanta race that became the most expensive congressional matchup in history. That peak for Republicans involved now-Rep. Karen Handel drawing 84 percent of Trump's total and 67 percent of then-Rep. Tom Price's last e******n total before his brief stint as Trump's health secretary. Democrat Jon Ossoff, meanwhile, ended up exceeding the 2016 count for Price's opponent. Ossoff got 81 percent of Clinton's total.
Bliss, the Republican super PAC executive, said the Georgia numbers show Republicans' core supporters can be energized in November, as they were in the Atlanta suburbs after Ossoff very nearly won an outright majority in a first round of v****g, only to lose a runoff.
"Our base is happy with what President Trump and the Republican Congress is doing," Bliss said. "Our candidates just have to make the stakes clear."


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'AP analysis finds Democratic v**ers hold an enthusiasm edge'

Does that enthusiasm carry over to these v**ers?

170 V**ers in Ohio Race ‘Over 116 Years Old,’ World’s Oldest Person Is 115
Supreme Court Makes Landmark Decision Regarding Ohio V***r F***d
BY SOPHIA CLIFTON

It’s becoming clear that Democrats will stop at nothing to get their “blue wave” to happen.

In Tuesday’s special e******n for Ohio’s 12th Congressional District, Republican Troy Balderson won by a narrow margin — around 1,600 v**es.

That’s less than 1 percent of the total number of v**es in the entire district, making the e******n too close to call at the moment and requiring a recount under Ohio law.

Additionally, more than 3,000 provisional b****ts still have to be counted — nearly twice the number of v**es in the winning margin — so Balderson’s victory is far from assured.

Such a slim margin in this special e******n has brought to light the dangerous consequences v***r f***d can have for those who play fair.

According to expert Eric Eggers, research director at the Government Accountability Institute, 170 registered v**ers in Ohio’s 12th Congressional District are listed as being “over 116 years old.”

Considering that the world’s oldest living person is a 115-year-old resident of Japan, this is a big problem.

“That’s 10 percent of Balderson’s current margin of victory, pending provisional b****ts,” Eggers wrote. “And 72 v**ers over the age of 116 who ‘live’ in Balderson’s district cast b****ts in the 2016 e******n.”

Do you think v**er ID laws are necessary?


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In fact, many of the v**ers on Ohio’s rolls list their birthdays as Jan. 1, 1800, making them 218 years old. Clearly something is amiss.

For four years now, Democrats in Ohio have been fighting efforts to prevent v***r f***d, and it is easy to see why.

In June, the Supreme Court ruled 5-4 in favor of Ohio’s system for purging ineligible v**ers from the rolls, dealing a tough blow to Ohio Democrats.


If v**er ID laws are passed and implemented as a result of that Supreme Court ruling, those 170 impossibly old v**ers would no longer be able to cast b****ts — and that is something the fraudulent Democrats of the state desperately want to avoid.

“A critical swing state, Ohio has v**ed for the winner in p**********l races in twenty-eight out of the last thirty e******ns. As Ohio goes, so goes the nation,” former Ohio Secretary of State Ken Blackwell wrote on American Thinker.

“While it may seem strange to witness millions of dollars pouring into a down b****t race in the heartland, there is a method to the Democrats’ madness,” Blackwell continued.

“Delve below the surface, and you will see that the Democrats have their sights set on 2020, defeating Donald Trump, taking back the presidency.”

And they will stop at nothing to achieve their goal.


BTW; Are these "polls" accurate?
The 2016 polls were BS.

https://www.yahoo.com/news/ap-analysis-finds-democratic-v**ers-hold-enthusiasm-edge-042243584--politics.html

ATLANTA (AP) — Democratic v**ers were more enthusiastic than Republicans in nearly a dozen federal special e******ns since President Donald Trump took office, an Associated Press analysis found, giving party leaders hope that even a series of narrow losses in GOP territory bodes well for them in November.
With the special e******ns now concluded ahead of the fall midterms, an AP review of nine House races and an Alabama special Senate e******n showed Democratic candidates consistently outperforming Republicans compared to the two parties' usual v**e totals in regular general e******ns.
The strong Democratic turnout is a key factor fueling the party's hopes of regaining control of the House in November for the first time in eight years. It's particularly significant because Democrats often struggle to turn out their v**ers when a p**********l candidate isn't on the b****t. The special e******n v****g numbers could signal a change heading into the fall.
The latest indicator came Tuesday in Ohio, where Republican Troy Balderson holds a narrow lead over his Democratic rival, Danny O'Connor, setting up a potential recount in a suburban and small-town congressional district that President Donald T***p w*n by more than 11 percentage points and that Republicans have held since 1980.
The AP review went beyond percentage totals and compared special e******n raw v**e totals to what Republicans and Democrats received from the same e*****rates in 2016. The methodology measures candidates' performance as a percentage of what they could expect in a p**********l year when turnout is highest, with the results suggesting which party's coalition is more engaged and excited about the e******n cycle.
In Ohio, for example, Balderson's 101,500-plus v**es amount to less than half of Trump's total in the district and just 40 percent of what former Rep. Pat Tiberi received in his last re-e******n. O'Connor, meanwhile, pulled in almost 62 percent of Hillary Clinton's 2016 totals and almost 90 percent of what the last Democratic candidate drew alongside the p**********l race.
Altogether, Democrats got a higher proportion than Republicans of the party's usual p**********l v**e in eight out of 11 e******ns. They exceeded Republicans in 10 out 11 races when comparing the special e******n totals to the most recent House or Senate race involving the same e*****rate.
Special e******ns are not a perfect predictor of November, but if those enthusiasm gaps hold for dozens of more fundamentally competitive seats in November, Democrats would stand a strong chance of emerging with the House majority and be poised for statehouse gains, as well.
The data tracks with high-profile special e******n outcomes ahead of the 2010 midterms when Republicans flipped control of the House and many state legislatures. This year, the trends are giving the GOP pause.
"Obviously, this is a tough environment for Republicans," said Corry Bliss, executive director of the Congressional Leadership Fund, a super PAC dev**ed to defending House Republicans' 23-seat majority. An obviously enthusiastic Democratic base, Bliss said, puts the burden on Republican incumbents and open-seat candidates "to give the v**ers a reason to v**e for them."
Trump mocked Democratic optimism this week on Twitter, noting the GOP has a lopsided record in federal special e******ns. Indeed, Republican candidates won seven of the nine special House races. But all seven were Republican seats to begin with, several of them open in the first place because Trump plucked members from supposedly safe seats to join his administration.
Democrats held a California seat, while Democratic Rep. Conor Lamb flipped a Pennsylvania congressional district Trump had won by almost 20 points. Alabama Sen. Doug Jones also pulled a shocker in a December 2017 contest barely a year after T***p w*n the state by 28 points.
"The numbers show a Democratic energy in the e*****rate that Republicans don't have, plus an advantage with independents that Democrats haven't had in a decade," said Democratic pollster Zac McCrary. "That's when waves happen and you win districts you aren't supposed to win."
Certainly, Democrats must contend with a tough Senate map — 10 incumbents are running in states where T***p w*n — and several GOP-run states have drawn congressional districts to Republicans' advantage, particularly in battleground suburbs that could determine House control. Some regular primaries have shown Republican strength as well: Texas Democrats touted a midterm primary turnout record this March as they try to make the state more competitive, but Republicans answered with their own record.

Still, it's worth noting that Republicans demonstrated enthusiasm advantages ahead of their 2010 sweep, most notably in January 2010 when they flipped the Massachusetts Senate seat in a special e******n after Ted Kennedy's death. Republican Scott Brown topped Democrat Martha Coakley by amassing 105 percent of John McCain's 2008 p**********l v**e and 126 percent of what Democrat John Kerry's Senate challenger had mustered 14 months before.
At the time, Democrats mostly blamed Coakley, just as many Republican blamed Lamb's and Jones' opponents for this cycle's upsets.
The strongest overall special e******n turnout during Trump's presidency came in a suburban Atlanta race that became the most expensive congressional matchup in history. That peak for Republicans involved now-Rep. Karen Handel drawing 84 percent of Trump's total and 67 percent of then-Rep. Tom Price's last e******n total before his brief stint as Trump's health secretary. Democrat Jon Ossoff, meanwhile, ended up exceeding the 2016 count for Price's opponent. Ossoff got 81 percent of Clinton's total.
Bliss, the Republican super PAC executive, said the Georgia numbers show Republicans' core supporters can be energized in November, as they were in the Atlanta suburbs after Ossoff very nearly won an outright majority in a first round of v****g, only to lose a runoff.
"Our base is happy with what President Trump and the Republican Congress is doing," Bliss said. "Our candidates just have to make the stakes clear."





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