alabuck Loc: Tennessee

Will the Pentagon, with its 30-year planning cycle for building ships, still be launching bigger and bigger aircraft carriers in 2048 — even though they’re already highly vulnerable to attack today?

That’s an example of the military-modernization questions that kept nagging participants at last weekend’s gathering of the Aspen Strategy Group, which annually brings together top-level current and former national security officials, along with a few journalists, to discuss defense and foreign policy. This year’s focus was on “Maintaining America’s Edge” in the dawning era of high-tech combat, and the big takeaway was this: The future of warfare is now, and China is poised to dominate it.

Speakers at the conference described a new generation of combat systems, powered by artificial intelligence (A-I), cyberweapons and robots that can operate on land, sea and air. But America is still largely wedded to legacy weapons of the past — superbly engineered (but super-expensive) aircraft carriers, bombers, fighter jets and submarines.

“We have a small number of exquisite, expensive, manned, hard-to-replace systems that would have been familiar to Dwight D. Eisenhower. They are being overtaken by advanced technology,” argued Christian Brose, staff director of the Senate Armed Services Committee. Instead, he said, the Pentagon needs a large number of inexpensive, unmanned, expendable, autonomous systems that can survive in the new electronic battlespace and overwhelm any potential adversary.

“It is not that we lack money. It is that we are playing a losing game,” Brose contended in a paper presented to the group. “Our competitors are now using advanced technologies to erode our military edge. This situation is becoming increasingly dire.”

As China’s military grows, the Pentagon says U.S. forces have ‘atrophied.’ China is rapidly modernizing its forces in an attempt to match the U.S.’s power in Asia. But, future needs are being drowned out by past practices, because of what Armed Services Committee Chairman John McCain (R-Ariz.), has called the “military-industrial-congressional complex.” Brose calculates that in the Pentagon’s initial request for $74 billion in new defense spending in fiscal 2019, only 0.006% was targeted for science and technology. The National Science Foundation estimates that in fiscal 2015, only 18% of the Pentagon’s research and development budget went to basic, applied and advanced research. Major systems claimed 81%.

Even when the Pentagon tries to push innovation, it often stumbles. When Ashton Carter was defense secretary, under President Obama, he created the “Defense Innovation Unit Experimental,” or DIUx, with offices in Silicon Valley, Boston and Austin. That operation thrived initially, negotiating 60 defense contracts with start-ups. The program has slowed, to almost a complete stop, under the Trump administration, despite support from Defense Secretary Jim Mattis, because it lacks funds and bureaucratic support, especially from Trump and his followers on Capital Hill. If Mattis can appoint a strong new DIUx leader soon, maybe he can revive this desperately needed innovation hub.

But, don’t look for anything to happen soon. Trump and his Capital Hill friends are still too busy un-doing anything Obama-related to worry about just how much actual harm they’re causing our military. This is in direct opposition to their repeated claims that our military is the strongest ever and growing stronger. As my old Grannie used to say about ‘being strong,’ “It may be, but odor isn’t everything.”

The biggest technological challenge discussed here was artificial intelligence. In a few years, these systems have taught themselves to play complex games such as chess and Go better than humans, and to recognize voices and objects better, too. And soon, they will be driving the weapons of combat.

China appears determined to seize this A-I “high ground” of future conflict. For the past two years, Chinese companies have won an A-I competition for detecting objects. The Chinese are happy for the United States to keep building huge and expensive carriers and bombers, so long as they (the Chinese) deploy the more advanced technologies that can disable these systems BEFORE they can cause any serious damage.

Richard Danzig, a former Navy secretary, published a brilliant paper discussed at the conference warning that as A-I systems dominate warfare, they will “introduce important new risks of loss of control.” Humans must be “maximally thoughtful and creative” during design (and plan for failure), because these A-I-driven weapons will have accidents and unintended consequences. Wise policymakers must avoid a “Dr. Strangelove” world of unsafe k**ler robots and doomsday machines.

America’s vulnerability to information warfare was a special topic of concern. One participant recalled a conversation several years ago with a Russian general who taunted him: “You have a cybercommand but no information operations. Don’t you know that information operations are how you take countries down?” Want proof? Look at how the Russians, Iranians, Chinese, and North .koreans have been able to infiltrate our e******n systems, email accounts, financial institutions, and even electric power station control systems.

FYI: The Aspen Strategy Group is a devoutly bi-partisan forum. But there was an intense discussion here of the issue that’s vexing America this summer: the growing political polarization that’s creating so much discord that it’s becoming a national security problem.

What could be more heartening to the Russians, Chinese, Iranians, and North Koreans, than to see us fighting so intensely among ourselves? A divided country and it’s people is/are the easiest to conquer. Want proof? Try understanding the rational behind people wearing tee-shirts with the saying, “I’D RATHER BE RUSSIAN THAN DEMOCRAT,” written on them.

I fought and bled for OUR country back in the early 70’s, over both Vietnams. Some of our aerial dog-fights involved us fighting North Vietnamese Migs, being flown by RUSSIAN pilots. Now, I get to see a bunch of A$$-Holes wearing shirts like that?! If you’re that upset, that you h**e half of your fellow countrymen, then, by all means, GO TO RUSSIA! I’m sure you’ll be far more happy there. Just don’t get caught criticizing the government or any of its leadership. That’s one “right” you’ll not get to celebrate and live to see tomorrow. That, I can promise you.

As the gathering concluded Monday, Republicans and Democrats were equally passionate about spreading the message that this is a “Sputnik moment” for modernizing our military. Competing with a rising China begins at home, with a more nimble Pentagon and a country that’s more united to face the big problems ahead. Unfortunately, Trump is too busy golfing or complaining about the “unfair” and “f**e news” press, or the “witch-hunt” Mueller investigation, or insulting our allies and praising our enemies, or screwing over American workers and farmers with his i***tic tariffs, to actually try to unite our people and to lead our country. Also, he’s so “anti-science” he doesn’t know the difference between a slot-head and a Phillips-head screw-driver. Don’t believe me? Just ask him.

Portions of this post are from an article by David Ignatius, of WaPo.

Richard Rowland

I'm far from being an expert, however, all this talk of A-I cyber weapons and robots is a bit far out. What's that cliche? If things can go wrong... As for the President's mechanical knowledge, I wouldn't worry about it, it has no bearing on this issue. I'm more or less in the president's corner because I don't care for the antics of the Democrats.

However, to your point of the president being the uniter, how do you propose he does that when the press won't report on anything positive he does. It seems to me it's the Democrats who need to step up, condemn the A****a crowd, and those who confront Republicans at every opportunity and begin a conversation of unity.

Getting back to the weapon's issue: It will be those at the forefront of weaponizing space who will be the winners in any conflict. This piece says nothing about weapons in space. Sending a missile from space will supersede A-I or regiments of robots.

This post seems to have two issues, the backward thinking of our military thinkers and planners and the posters dislike for the president. In any event, though, nothing happens by chance. There's a reason that Donald Trump was the nominee and then being elected. And, I have no doubt that there was some chicanery involved, and it wasn't the Russians.

Whether President Trump's e******n is for good or ill, only time will tell.

lpnmajor Loc: Arkansas

China built it's first aircraft carrier, which is smaller than the USS Ronald Reagan, carries the same firepower, is faster and cheaper to operate............and cost 1/5 what the Reagan cost in US Dollars. The Pentagon wastes more money every year, than the combined annual budgets of 2/3 of the worlds nations.

We need a SMARTER military industrial complex, instead of a greedier entity.

Carol Kelly

All I can say is Alabuck must be a general. My husband is 100% in Trumps corner. He says he spent his entire young adulthood to middle age fighting a Cold War and now it’s in his backyard. Conservatives can’t win!

Crayons Loc: St Jo, Texas

One of my sales guys, retired military wore one of those "I'd rather be russian than a democrat" shirts
n' we thought it was hilarious. He's also probably has one of the largest museum collection of military
parade vehicles in the country.

Blade_Runner Loc: DARK SIDE OF THE MOON

For a guy who claims to have been a military officer, you sure have a knack for showing your true colors. I believe you could be called a Turncoat. The qualifier that portions of this article were written by a WaPo hack is a hard clue that this is just another biased, anti-Trump hit piece.

Right now, Trump is hitting our enemies in the pocket book. His actions against the world's premier state sponsor of terrorism is paying off in spades, the same state that has funded the most terror attacks in the ME, same state that manufactured IEDs and provided them to insurgents in Iraq that k**led an estimated 2000 American soldiers.

Pulling out of the extraordinarily stupid Iran nuke deal and implementing severe economic sanctions on Iran, then ramping them up in layers, is finally bearing fruit. The sanctions have not only driven the Iranian currency down but sparked the beginning of another uprising against the Islamic regime.

Iran CIVIL WAR brewing: Fury at ‘corrupt’ regime – ‘they make us poorer every day’

Iran crowds reportedly chant 'death to the dictator!' as US sanctions increase economic unrest

The heavy tariffs on China have driven the value of the Yuan down, which in turn raised the value of the dollar.

Richard Rowland

lpnmajor you need to read the book titled "The Creature from Jekyll Island." It's just phony money being run off the presses, backed by the Federal Reserve which has no reserves. The Federal Reserve puts a figure in a ledger, and the presses begin to roll. The Federal Reserve then collects interest on that figure, but that too is phony money.

However, statistically, it's backed by the American taxpayer, but taxes don't really come out of our pockets. They just run more phony money off the presses for the big-ticket items and to pay the interest. The taxes we pay is thru inflation. Every phony dollar, coming off the presses, devalues those in our pockets.

One might ask if it's all phony money, what's the sense of it all? The sense of it all is that it keeps the masses s***es to a system designed specifically for that purpose. While more cumbersome, less efficient, nor realistic a barter system would represent freedom those who rig the money game.

Richard Rowland

I'm attempting to correct an error I made. Freedom "from" those. I omitted the word "from" from in my post. However, once the opportunity to edit has elapsed, you're pretty much screwed.

lpnmajor Loc: Arkansas

That's ok, I inserted the word in my head and didn't even notice it was missing from the post. You ever wonder how come other countries with modern medicine technologies, get the same excellent care we do..................for 10 times less cost than we do here?

There's a reason why a certain segment of our people are rabidly against democratic principles, anything that resembles "not capitalism", categorizing everything not republicanism as socialist/c*******t........................and it has nothing to do with principles, values or anything else of the sort................it has to do with the r****d financial/economic system and the fierce desire to see it perpetuate.

Crayons Loc: St Jo, Texas

Of Course the l*****t's want gubmint controlled health care, it's a never ending scheme to fill their own coffers...
The neolibs and neocons think any legitimate sensible open market health care plan must be shot down at all costs

lpnmajor Loc: Arkansas

Who said anything about Government controlled healthcare? That's the last thing I want to see, however................it's the "free" and "open" market that's driving healthcare costs to the moon. America has the highest cost healthcare in the world, the fewest people getting routine ( and cost saving ) care, and the worst outcomes.

The countries that get the best healthcare for the least cost, do not allow the market to rip off their people. Instead of cost + pricing, we have cost ++++ with no accountability and no pressure to lower prices or keep prices in check.

Our healthcare system is the poster child for capitalism out of control.

Richard Rowland

Your forum handle "lpnmajor" indicates an association with the medical field. While you have a valid point regarding cost, I think its a bit more complicated than just the capitalist system. In the case of anything where insurance plays a part, things seem to be more expensive. It's a double-edged sword. Unfortunately, the security of being insured for all things is offset by the high cost of services covered by insurance. Woe is us!

alabuck Loc: Tennessee

Blade,

The same could be said about you and your “off-the-wall” thinking, Mr. Turncoat. Besides, all you’re doing is tossing around insults to substitute for any t***hful facts you may claim. Like you, I spent my time in the Navy. However, if you were really as smart as you think you are, they would’ve made you an officer, too. I guess some of us have what it takes to be an officer and some of us don’t. Some of us give orders and others can only follow them. Which category do you fall into?

My apologies to any other former Navy enlisted personnel reading this. This is only directed at Blade Runner, who thinks he’s God’s gift to the world and anyone who dares disagree with him is to be shamed and bullied with personal insults and innuendo; much like his daddy, Trumpet does.


President Trump imposed tariffs on steel and aluminum imported from Canada, Mexico and the European Union. He claims the move will strengthen national security. He's dead wrong. The tariffs will weaken the United States, protect jobs in inefficient industries while preventing job growth in efficient ones, and harm relationships with our allies.

Trump unilaterally imposed the tariffs by invoking Section 232 of the Trade Expansion Act of 1962, which allows the president to curb any imports in the interest of national security. Section 232 has only been used twice. President Carter banned Iranian oil imports in 1979 in response to the hostage crisis. And President Reagan blocked Libyan crude imports during a 1982 standoff with terrorist-sponsoring dictator Moammar Gadhafi.

Even though most steel imports come from allied nations, the Trump administration still claims that importing these metals threatens our national security. According to the president, we need to strengthen the U.S. steel and aluminum industries now, so that we are prepared to rapidly churn out tanks, planes and other armaments if a major war were to break out.

"Our steel industry is in bad shape," President Trump recently tweeted. "IF YOU DON'T HAVE STEEL, YOU DON'T HAVE A COUNTRY!"

Bull $hit!

The U.S. steel industry is perfectly healthy. Steel companies' earnings rose by $2 billion between 2016 and 2017. These firms created 8,000 additional jobs between January 2017 and this January. If a war did break out, American steel and aluminum plants could easily accommodate the military’s heightened demand. These plants are operating well below capacity. In 2017, about 30% of steel mills' capacity, and 60% of aluminum smelters' capacity, went untapped. And right now, the Department of Defense consumes just 3% of all American-made steel and 20% of U.S.-made high-purity aluminum.

The White House's stated national-security rationale is patently ridiculous. The true goal of the tariffs is economic. The president and his team believe the 25% tariff on steel and 10% tariff on aluminum will force companies to purchase more metals from U.S. suppliers, thereby creating jobs for the metal workers who form part of his blue-collar base. "Corporate America might complain," reasons Commerce Secretary Wilbur Ross, "but the president is taking up the banner of Mr. and Mrs. America.”

On this, the White House is only partly right — the tariffs will spur hiring in the steel and aluminum industries. However, they'll cause job losses in every other sector. For every American job in steel production, there are 80 jobs in downstream sectors that would be negatively affected by higher steel and aluminum prices. The tariffs could cost U.S. consumers up to $9 billion per year.

Take the Vollrath Co., a bakeware manufacturer in Wisconsin. Aluminum tariffs are poised to cost Vollrath $6 million per year in added input costs. The company, which was considering creating 25-50 new jobs this year, is no longer hiring.

New tariffs would particularly disrupt America's burgeoning energy industry. Oil and gas pipelines often use foreign steel because there are only about two dozen U.S. steel mills that make pipeline parts. For some specialized parts, there's not a single American manufacturer. Even if pipeline builders want to buy American, they can't. Tariffs would punish these builders, forcing them to lay off workers and forgo new projects.

Already, Globalization Partners, a multinational staffing firm based in Boston, told Reuters that one of its clients scrapped a planned $800 million U.S. energy project. Several other clients are thinking twice about investments due to "uncertainty" surrounding steel tariffs, according to chief executive Nicole Sahin.

All told, pipelines support 300,000 jobs at refineries and more than 440,000 jobs in the manufacturing, chemical and other industries. Making it harder to build new pipelines would harm workers, raise energy bills for consumers and American factories and offices, and increase America’s imports of oil.

President Trump's tariffs will weaken the economy and alienate our allies. So much for strengthening national security.

Relating to your claim about a strong dollar vs the yeun, in China, at least, new data suggest that the effects of the tariffs might not be as bad as some had predicted—thanks in part to the weakening yuan.

The clue comes from the July reading of the Chinese government’s purchasing managers index (PMI), a survey-based assessment of business activity for domestic manufacturers—stuff like output, orders, prices, and inventories. A reading above 50 signals expansion; a reading below 50 indicates a contraction.

The headline number isn’t heartening, exactly. The official manufacturing PMI fell to 51.2 in July, its softest reading in more than a year, not counting the noisy period around the Chinese New Year holidays. A slight slowdown in both output and new order drove this weakening, said Julian Evans-Pritchard of Capital Economics in a July 31 note.

But weirdly, given the trade war underway, the culprit doesn’t seem to have been a sharp drop-off in exports.

“The export orders component held steady,” writes Evans-Pritchard, “which suggests that the impact of the first tranche of US tariffs that came into effect this month is being largely offset by a weaker renminbi [another name for the yuan].”

And weaker it is. Since July 6, the yuan has dropped around 2.5% against the US dollar.

Sluggish domestic demand seems the more likely source of the d**g on July’s manufacturing PMI. There’s one flashing red light in particular: the index’s imports component slid to a 23-month low in July.

These data hint at the problems a depreciating yuan might pose to Trump’s trade war. The yuan makes Chinese exports to the US relatively cheaper, dampening the effects of US tariffs. And for Chinese businesses and consumers, a weaker yuan makes imports of American goods even more expensive—amplifying the impact of China’s retaliatory tariffs.

There are some important caveats to keep in mind here. For one, in the June PMI reading, export demand contracted ever so slightly; so by “holding steady” in July, they simply didn’t contract more. And of course, this is just one monthly reading. As Evans-Pritchard highlights, the official PMIs have given confusing readings in the past. It’s also good to recall that the US is hardly the only buyer of Chinese exports. In the first six months of 2018, Americans bought around 19% of China’s 751 million yuan in exports (link in Chinese).

But if the yuan keeps dropping against the dollar, expect China to buy even fewer US goods, while the US will keep buying roughly the same amount as before the tariffs hit. That will ultimately make Trump’s bug-a-bear—the US’s trade deficit with China—even buggier. Then, he’ll send-.off more tweets, blaming everyone but himself for the negative consequences of his i***tic actions.

So, Blade, instead of just repeating the same BS you get from Fox and similar “f**e news” organizations, try doing some research on your own. Your myopic views of Trumpet and his negative effects on our economy just might be enlightened and enlarged towards a more open view of how things really work.

Also, calling me a name, like “turncoat,” only shows how sophomorically immature you really are. Enjoy your ability to hide behind your moniker. And, be glad we aren’t serving in the same unit and I catch wind of your insubordination. Things would get really rough for you and there wouldn’t be a damn thing you could do about it. But, I could and, rest assured, I would.

Like the old song goes, “Come back when you grow-up, girl. You’re still living in a paper-doll world.”

woodguru

What good does it do to weoponize space if you are dropping the ball on cyber defense and offense and your infrastructure is trashed?

woodguru

There's a real patriot for you, proves being in the military does not make you an automatic patriot.