slatten49 Loc: Lake Whitney, Texas

Rick Newman; Yahoo Finance, May 14, 2017

More than anything else, the performance of the economy during the next several years is likely to determine whether Donald Trump succeeds or fails as president.

So how’s he doing? And how should we measure his success in the future?

Well, for starters, the economy has earned a solid B since Trump took office in January, according to an exclusive Trumponomics Report Card Yahoo Finance has developed to track the economy during Trump’s time in office. The reasons may be surprising: Trump has earned top marks for wage growth, for example, while manufacturing employment—a key focus for Trump—has been strong so far in his presidency. The rise of the stock market, on the other hand, hasn’t boosted the Trump economy as much as breathless financial-market headlines might suggest.

In coming months, Trump’s economic grade is likely to benefit from GDP growth, which was weak in the first quarter but is expected to bounce back strongly in the second. Job gains will buoy Trump’s grade for months, if the current pace of job growth persists. One weak spot could be exports, which are vulnerable to a rising dollar, along with trade friction. Overall, the Trump economy is off to a strong start, making it Trump’s challenge to simply manage an economy on the verge of booming—while also doing no harm.

Our Trumponomics Report Card assesses the performance of the economy on six key measures, comparing Trump’s record to that of six prior presidents at the same point in their first terms. We limited this analysis to first terms only, since that’s when most of the policy changes a new president might favor are likely to go into effect. So we measure Trump’s performance against that of Barack Obama starting in 2009, George W. Bush starting in 2001, Bill Clinton starting in 1993, George H.W. Bush starting in 1989, Ronald Reagan starting in 1981 and Jimmy Carter starting in 1977. Prior to that, the data is less consistent and in some cases unobtainable.

The blue dots in the graphic above represent the performance of the Trump economy, relative to that of the other presidents. Since we’re comparing Trump with 6 other presidents, there are 7 dots, including one for Trump and 6 for the others. The one exception is exports, because that data only goes back to 1993; so we have only three presidents to compare Trump against, or 4 dots total.

Moody’s Analytics is providing the data for the report card, and offering analysis on the current state of the economy to help explain the results. “The benefit of this tracker is whether you’re a Trump supporter or a Trump detractor, it’s not political,” says Ryan Sweet, director of real-time economics at Moody’s Analytics. “It’s very t***sparent. The data tells the story.” To that end, we’ve published a full explanation of our methodology for those who want to dig into the numbers.

Here’s an overview of Trump’s economic performance on the six indicators we’re following.

Employment: The economy created 522,000 new jobs in March and April, which is our starting point for measuring p**********l performance on the economy. (Our methodology explains why.) That places Trump third out of the 7 presidents we’re looking at, behind Jimmy Carter in 1977 and George H.W. Bush in 1989. The Carter economy, while known for “malaise,” was actually bouncing back from a nasty recession in the mid-1970s, while the Bush economy was in the late stages of a prolonged boom. The worst performer on jobs at this point in his presidency was Obama, who inherited the worst recession since the 1930s and was down 2.2 million jobs in just his first two months.

Manufacturing employment. Trump has decried the loss of manufacturing jobs, yet employers created 41,000 of them in March and April, giving Trump better marks at this stage than the other presidents, except for Carter and Reagan.

Average hourly earnings. This is the real surprise of the Trumponomics Report Card, given that earnings growth has been the single-biggest missing piece of a recovery that began in 2009. But the labor market was tightening up just as Trump took office, with a shortage of workers in some sectors and regions pushing wages up. This seems likely to continue and perhaps intensify, with wages rising even faster during the next couple of years.

Exports. They’re down under Trump so far, but they were down more under Obama and George W. Bush at the same point in their presidencies. They rose at the beginning of Clinton’s first term, which was before the North American Free Trade Agreement went into effect.

The S&P 500 stock index. It rose sharply in the weeks following E******n Day last November, but that is not reflected in our report card, which uses Trump’s first full month in office—February—as a baseline from which to measure future gains. (Again, our methodology explains why.) Since February, stock-market gains have been modest, with Trump ranking third out of the 7 presidents. This might seem to represent a bias against Trump in the way we measure his performance on the economy, but the same methodology will benefit him in other ways, as on GDP growth.

Real GDP per capita. This is a big-picture measure of economic growth, relative to the size of the population. This is the only indicator in our report card that’s released quarterly rather than monthly, and we won’t have relevant data until the government publishes second-quarter numbers in late July. But Trump is likely to score well. First-quarter GDP growth was a weak 0.7%, but we don’t assess Trump on that number—we only use it as a baseline against which to measure future growth. Since second-quarter growth is forecast to be much stronger—well above 3%—Trump’s grade on this measure could rank near the top.

There’s already contentious debate over how much credit Trump deserves for an economy that was gaining strength when he was elected. During Trump’s first year or so, the Trumponomics grade will largely reflect conditions as the new president found them when he entered the White House. As his tenure progresses, however, the grade will become all Trump’s. “Presidents inherit economies,” says Sweet. “But within 6 to 12 months, this will become the Trump economy.”

We’ll maintain the Trumponomics Report Card throughout the Trump presidency, and update it several times per month, as new data comes in. When there are meaningful changes, we’ll highlight them with fresh news coverage on Yahoo Finance. We also plan to add more features to the report card, allowing users to plumb the economic data for each president. We hope this project helps our audience better evaluate the Trump presidency, and generate thoughtful discussion of Trump’s policies and effectiveness. Please share your insights in the comments section below, or reach out to us on Twitter or Facebook.

Rick Newman is the author of four books, including Rebounders: How Winners Pivot from Setback to Success. Follow him on Twitter: @rickjnewman. He’s reachable at rickjnewman@yahoo.com.

PeterS

How do you give someone a grade of B when they haven't attended class nor done a single assignment? This "grade" is given based on what people perceive Trump of doing not what he has actually accomplished. It took Obama over a year to get the US economy turned around. Trump doesn't have to do anything to continue to watch the economy grow--thanks to Obama--and until he actual passes a bill we should give credit where it is due...

robmull Loc: florida

"{O}ver a year to get the..." What planet do you live on, pecker??? President Trump (R), has done more good for America in the first hundred-and-some days in office than BHO did for Iran and Islamic terrorism in half the time!!! Talk about giving "credit where {credit} is due!!!" GOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO PRESIDENT "45" DONALD J. {BORN AGAIN} TRUMP (R); JUST LIKE THE WEATHER!!! Now "(D)RAIN THAT {RADICAL LOONY SECULAR JACKASS LIBERAL PROGRESSIVE "LEFTY"} SWAMP!!!"

slatten49 Loc: Lake Whitney, Texas

The article covers the gist of your comments, while mostly discussing the course of the economy since Trump took office. That was the purpose of the piece, as displayed by the thread title. As the author states, numbers don't lie, and I thought he wrote a balanced assessment.

Ricko Loc: Florida

PeterS-you are obviously smarter than your statement. When Trump was elected the business world went from
pessimism to optimism. The business leaders know that Trump is a businessman, knows what it takes to create
jobs, and is a deal maker. That coupled with the elimination of job-k*****g over-regulation resulted in unprecedented stock market gains. The arms deal with Saudi Arabia alone will further stimulate our economy and we have yet
to see what the tax cuts will do to expand businesses. Peter, it is time for you to get over the butt whipping, and start acting like an American adult as opposed to a cry baby sore loser. Obama had one of the poorest GDP growth of any president in history and doubled our national debt so using him as an example is ludicrous. America is on its way to resurgence and it will happen with or without you lefties. So enjoy the ride or continue the crying jag. lol
America First !!!

moldyoldy

I was reading a story yesterday about Utah having to raise wages because the workers are job shopping for better pay, and many jobs are not being filled.

slatten49 Loc: Lake Whitney, Texas

I read that, also, Moldy.

missinglink Loc: Tralfamadore

Anytime business requires more employees than the market can deliver is a good sign.
Being in a position to pick and choose by the American worker is ideal. Supply and demand .
In this case it raises wages . This shows growth . Very good .

Holdenbeach4u Loc: Holden Beach , NC

Trump has a long ways to go because what Obama did to this economy the last eight years. Obama shut down the coal mines and that shut millions of jobs too!

moldyoldy

The coal jobs are obsolete, trump is riding high on Obana's work

Holdenbeach4u Loc: Holden Beach , NC

Dow is round the corner from crashing big time like it was 2008 !
The inflation will soared big time and the economy will not look to good after that !