JohnCorrespondent wrote:
Yes "they can be more careful where ... and how they are regulated".
And yes it _would_ be a "folly of man's arrogance" think "they can have absolute control over things". I wish you had spelled out this situation more fully. There are some people, in nearly every segment of society, who do not understand risk management very well, and some of _those_ will occasionally seize upon any risk at all as a way to denounce an entire project. There are some foolish people like that among those who try to conserve the green ecology; but conservation of green ecology as a movement is very worthwhile and has a lot of smarter people in it.
There are some very big risks involved in the kind of nuclear power plants that we have in the world today. Some of these risks affect many generations of our descendants, depending on how long are the half-lives of the radioactive materials used. Also, some of these risks involve natural disasters and manmade disasters. Even during only the next hundred years it is (in my guess) actually _likely_ that _at_least_ one disaster will occur which produces a nuclear powerplant meltdown or very large release of radioactive material into the environment, _in_addition_to_ what's happened at Chernobyl and Fukishima.
It takes a regular, technologically capable community to manage a nuclear power plant. It can probably survive a typical power outage because it would have backup power generators. But if there's a war going on nearby, what then -- when the workers evacuate, and the fission plant is left alone for a while, will it have a nuclear meltdown?
Of course, those aren't the only hazards we face. Nuclear weapons that are ready to launch now are already a disaster in the making. Pollutions of various kinds are also disasters. So are starvation and lack of potable water and lack of basic medical care, in parts of the world.
Why do so many people get cancers, and so many people die from cancers, nowadays? Did it used to be that way? I don't think so. And, I think one of the sources of cancer for the next generation is the polluted sources of food affected by the radioactive material spread out over many thousands of miles from Fukishima today. We could instead have a good civilization _without_ that.
The kind of human society we have now is not much good for managing the risks of nuclear fission power plants.
Nuclear fission power plants on the surface of Planet Earth are one of the kinds of things I'd like to see a lot less of.
I believe there are ways to get enough energy that pollute much less than oil and have much, much less risk than fission plants on the Earth's surface. We can be more conservative in our energy use (we waste a lot of energy now), and we can get our energy from a variety of relatively clean, relatively safe methods, including solar, wind, geothermal, tidal, wave, water, and probably some others I don't know about yet. I'd like (in the further future) to see some off-Earth sources of energy too (aside from the Sun directly) such as solar arrays in orbit or possibly, someday, a fission plant on a well-charted asteroid.
If you drop a bomb or have a big earthquake on a nuclear power plant, you've got a big disaster; but if you drop a bomb or have a big earthquake on a solar array or windmill farm, you've got a much lesser disaster.
Yes "they can be more careful where ... and h... (
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Lots of energy can be produced that are cleaner than fossil fuel; they are also less dependable or reliable when you need them.
John,
The green energy and ecology movement doesn't have smarter people in it; they just have some smart people who haven't figured out a way to produce more energy on-demand at an efficient and cost-efficient manner. In fact, most of what I see in the environmental movement, out protesting climate change, is a bunch of pseudo-intellectuals, sort of like the socialists are. They have grand ideas for a utopia that can't be achieved. We have to do the best we can with what we have.
I believe it is either France or Sweden that gets more than 80% of their electric grid power from nuclear and they made that decision to switch back in the 1960s. They haven't encountered any of the hubristic mistakes that the Japanese, Soviets, or USA have encountered. However, they also don't build nuclear power plants in locations with great geologic activity that poses a substantial danger.
Nuclear power plants don't have to be built where they are subject to great risk of manmade or natural disasters; coastlines, earthquake faults, whatever. An asteroid, really? Do you actually equate that risk with wars and natural disasters? Yeah, I suppose the possibility of an asteroid strike is a power exponent of "10 to the minus 50." Well, it wiped out the dinosaurs (to which there is still some debate). You are using the exact same argument, to convince us the risk is too great, that the lefties use to convince us to give up our liberty by embracing their socialist agenda and embrace their utopian vision of a clean world. It is a naive position to believe all this pie-in-the-sky hogwash. Men are not angels, otherwise, we wouldn't need governments.
Sure, dropping a bomb on a nuclear power plant is a risk. So is dropping a nuclear bomb, a war, or yes, even an asteroid. Actually we have become quite adept at handling and managing nuclear fission when properly regulated. Don't we already have a technologically competent and capable community to manage nuclear power plants? If we don't, then our entire educational system has failed us (it may have).
You probably see global warming as an existential threat to all mankind. Do you see other pollutions of various kinds, starvation, and lack of potable water, and lack of basic medical care as existential threats?
Are they beyond the best efforts of mankind to rectify these problems? Dream all you want about the future but this is now. We lose more energy through transmission lines than is wasted in any other method of use, unnecessary use or overuse. Nuclear is the cleanest, cheapest, and most dependable form of energy we currently have.
Renewable green energy accounts for less than 3 percent of all energy use. People in third world countries live with less than a Kw/day of electricity. They have no reliable source of energy with which to develop industry or business to bring them out of poverty. Fossil fuel is far preferential to the cutting down of trees for their heating and cooking fuel. There are trade-offs to everything. Keeping the rest of the world poor should not justify using only green energy at this time. We have less pollution than we had 50 years and 100 years ago because our affluence can pay for mitigating the direct causes. Or would you prefer to go back to horse and buggy day with manure all around? This is what New york contended with over 100 years ago before that automobile came on the scene. Traffic jams from horses and wagons were worse than cars are today. Suppose you lived in the country and broke a bone or had a heart attack. How would you get to the hospital? For that matter, what hospital would be outfitted with modern technology for your treatment?
You mentioned cancer: "Why do so many people get cancers, and so many people die from cancers, nowadays? Did it used to be that way? I don't think so. And, I think one of the sources of cancer for the next generation is the polluted sources of food affected by the radioactive material spread out over many thousands of miles from Fukishima today. We could instead have a good civilization _without_ that." People get and die from cancer because their life span is so very much longer than 100 years ago. More cancers can be treated, managed, and cured than ever before. Fewer people actually die from cancer than ever. What we call cancer now used to be called consumption. As much if not more cancer existed long before. They just didn't know what it was then. What is the greatest killer of women today? It's not cancer. The answer is heart disease. We have a good civilization now if people would quit trying to, in their own narrow interest ways, tear it apart. Take a look around at what we have. People have so little gratitude for living at the greatest time in history. They hate America, blame western civilization, religion for all the evil they perceive in the world. Rather than doing something to improve it, they protest. They riot, disrupt, destroy, tear down, but what do they do to improve anything? They are spoiled children, immature critics, with no gratitude for the blessings that have been bestowed upon them by living in the greatest country at the greatest time in history.
Okay, so you worry about polluted food sources from Fukushima. What about the use of fertilizers, pesticides, e-coli bacteria. The fact is, we live longer because we have a great variety of food available to us year-round. The benefits of all this good nutrition far outweights the dangers from some small amount of pesticide residue. I don't care if my apples have alar on them. Or, my grapes have some pesticide residue of which would take a barrel full to kill me. Sure, some of this is cumulative, but it doesn't outweigh the benefits of eating diverse foods for a healthy diet.
I would prefer to see more nuclear power until we finally achieve enough sources, efficiency, and economies of scale to use renewables.