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Why do so many young adults live at home? A record 34.5 percent of Millennials live at home with their parents in California.
A record 34.5 percent of Millennials live at home with their parents in California. This rate is higher than the national rate of 30.3 percent which is already incredibly high. There is ample evidence suggesting that Millennials simply do not want the same things as their Taco Tuesday baby boomer parents. And many simply dont want the McMansion aspiration since many are going to have small families. This is an interesting shift. Boomers are trying to off load larger crap shacks to an audience that is more interested in smaller more centrally accessible properties. In California, those young adults that arent living at home are likely living in a rental and paying close to half their income on housing. Good luck saving that 20 percent down payment on a $700,000 crap shack (or $1 million crap shack in the Bay Area). So why do so many young adults live at home if the recession ended in 2009, more than half-a-decade ago?
Young adults living at home
It should come as no surprise that there are a record number of young adults living at home. A Fed study found that one major reason stems from younger Americans having massive debt, largely in the form of student debt. The latest figures show student debt outstanding at $1.3 trillion. This is an increase of $1 trillion in the last decade or so. So many young adults are starting life with a mini mortgage already.
Let us look at the changing trends here:
living at home with a parent
Source: Census
In 2000, only 24.6 percent of those age 18 to 34 were living at home with a parent in California. That number has increased by nearly 10 percent to 34.5 percent today. Why this is significant is this is the age range when households begin to form. Keep in mind this is household formation meaning buying and renting. Not only is it hard for young people to buy a home in California but many are confronting the rental Apocalypse head-on.
It is expensive to purchase a home when your income isnt keeping up as well:
median earnings
Inflation adjusted income for Millennials is down and household costs are up big time. In California, housing prices are driven up by investors, foreign buyers, and a large dose of NIMBYism. So many young Californians are left living at home deep into young adulthood.
Usually the urgent house humping rush to buy comes from adding members to your household. Yet the size of the American family has been shrinking dramatically. All logic is tossed aside when there is this sudden urge to nest. I get countless emails from those with little babies or people that are pregnant that suddenly need a bigger home. Screw planning for retirement, we need a crap shack now! But overall, there is less pressure from Millennials because many are waiting to get married:
never married
In 1980, 44.6 percent of those age 18 to 34 were never married. In other words, the majority in this age group was already married. Today, 68.8 percent in this age group have never married. That is a dramatic shift in household dynamics. And once married, how many kids will these couples have? It is interesting that the larger baby boomer homes are serving their purpose as their adult kids come back and live at home.
And this also impacts the retirement situation for these boomers. Many will try to help their kids to purchase a home so there goes a big chunk of money. Many dont have this money so simply allow their kids to stay at home keeping them from actually selling their property to downsize. What is abundantly clear is that the Millennial age group is having a tough time buying homes in California. California actually leads the nation with young adults living at home.
But you want a starter home you say. Here is a starter home for you:
starter home
706 N Madison Ave,
Los Angeles, CA 90029
1 bed with 400 square feet
Let us look at the ad on this starter home:
Great starter home! This is a fixer upper but full of possibilities for the creative type! Close to LA City College, shopping, fwy access and downtown L.A. Property is being sold in its current As Is condition. Great opportunity for investors: property is in RD1.51XL zoning!
This place will only cost you $409,000 and is full of possibilities as the ad says. The current tax assessment is based on a value of $49,680 so gear up to pay 10 times the amount of annual taxes as the current owner. This is thanks to California NIMBYism like thinking. And you wonder why the young in California are living at home in record numbers.
Did You Enjoy The Post? Subscribe to Dr. Housing Bubbles Blog to get updated housing commentary, analysis, and information.
1 Nov, 2015 housing-data, market analysis, young homebuyers
14 Responses to Why do so many young adults live at home? A record 34.5 percent of Millennials live at home with their parents in California.
Alex in San jose
November 1, 2015 at 2:31 pm
How many can afford $1000 a month or more to live in a hole in the wall?
Better to stay home and save money.
REPLY
Paul - ( not a Realtor )
November 1, 2015 at 4:51 pm
Lets face it we have not provided the needed careers and pathways for our young adults to make enough income for today and then for later years. As a result they know they cannot afford to buy a house, not even a condo. Paying sky high rent means that the young adults cannot SAVE money for their future .. or even for the unexpected emergency. ALL TO THE CREDIT OF THE WALL STREET FRAUDSTERS THAT RUINED THE ECONOMY ..and TO THE CREDIT OF THE LARCENOUS REAL ESTATE INDUSTRY (i.e. Agents,Brokers,Bank Loan Mortgagors, Escrow people) WHO ONLY CARE ABOUT THEIR COMMISSIONS, KICK BACKS and BRIBES ALL MADE POSSIBLE BY THEIR NEVER ENDING LIES and GREED. ( ** One day they will all PAY DEARLY for their CRIMES !!! ** ).
REPLY
Alex in San jose
November 1, 2015 at 11:12 pm
Amen! We have huge income inequality now in the USA. The average worker cant afford a standard residence. We really need workers barracks and SROs and rooming houses but the RE industry only caters to the upper middle class and to them, everyone else can just sleep under a bridge.
Nimesh
November 2, 2015 at 7:14 am
One day they will pay for their crimes.
Sorry pal, but that one day will never come. Intrinsically we believe that somehow or someway bad deeds will one day be punished and the good deeds will be rewarded. I guess that is human nature to think that good always wins out against evil. But that is not how the real world works.
No one got punished during the last financial crisis and no one will be punished in the next ensuing financial crisis.
interesting
November 2, 2015 at 1:01 am
a one bedroom apartment in socal is about $1400 a month is a so so neighborhood
REPLY
unit472
November 1, 2015 at 3:51 pm
Real Estate mogul Sam Zell sold off almost 25,000 rental units recently. These were mostly suburban low rise and mid-rise units. Retained by his company were apartments in urban centers.
The trend maybe that urban cores are to be gentrified and the urban underclass relocated to decaying suburban rental housing. The caveat here would be that many central cities are heading for bankruptcy as a result of pension obligations. Chicago, Philadelphia, Houston and Los Angeles would be on this list.
REPLY
Alex in San jose
November 1, 2015 at 11:07 pm
Unit Thats how it is in urban France. The elites live in the city the more central the better, and the suburbs are for the second-rate people.
REPLY
Homerun
November 2, 2015 at 1:14 am
Makes sense what maybe going on. Pension crisis may be the next problem for the economy. No more safety nets for public services. Every man for himself now. How would homes or any properties be able to hold their value if there is no guarantee of safety nets for our public services when they retire. No way homes could maintain their values in high priced cities.
all IMO
REPLY
Nimesh
November 2, 2015 at 7:19 am
I live in Chicago and I find it very interesting how people engage in herd/group thinking behavior. When buying a home, one needs to evaluate the neighborhood and the financial status of your local city, county and state. By all measures these big cities are a financial mess. Yet the lemmings are clamoring to move in.
Chicago just passed a record half a billion dollar property tax increase. Then after they voted for it. Not even 24 hours passed and some alderman said on news forums that that wont be enough, we will try our best but we may need a bigger property tax increase in the future. I kid you not.
If you buy in Chicago, Philadelphia, Boston, New York, etc. then you are a hostage to the city and their liberal politicians. The politicians must be happy as a clam that they get to tax the shit out of property owners.
REPLY
Flyover
November 1, 2015 at 9:14 pm
Good article Doc!
While what you say is true, this trend is not only going to continue as is, but it is going to deteriorate significantly.
We should thank all our globalist politicians elected left and right literaly.
For those very sensitive to the world liberal, yes Obama is a liberal and a globalist and Clinton even more so than Obama. And I dont have a problem ONLY with liberals but all those RINOs like Bush, McCain and Romney who are globalists, too.
For those who dont see the connection between their globalist policies (more and more trade agreements) and the disapearance of the middle class, they must be blind and with no critical thinking.
Prety soon CA will have only super rich and super poor and SoCal will look like a thirld world hole if not already there.
Yes, I know there will be plenty of those contradicting what I am saying, but that is not going to reverse the trend or change the truth.
REPLY
Alex in San jose
November 1, 2015 at 11:18 pm
A greater rate of marriage here in California? Well knock me over with a feather. I guess it must be the large portion of our population for which family means something.
REPLY
IPFreely
November 2, 2015 at 12:51 am
The game Monopoly was specifically created to teach people what happens when the land becomes monopolized. She thought if the kids learned it at a young age they would know what NOT to do later on. For some reason this lesson has not been learned even though everyone knows what happens at the end of the game. There are actually two lessons though. Lesson number one is that most all of the players lose everything. Lesson number two is that even the winner loses because he no longer has anyone to ride his railroads or rent his properties. A third minor lesson that is written into the instructions is that if the bank runs out of money you are free to look around for any scrap pieces of paper laying around and make new money to keep the game going. Most people try to keep the game going to avoid violence. Isnt that what the fed is doing?
The problem with the real world is you are competing with people that have already been around the board many times and already bought everything up. You are also being overrun with foreigners who dont even know what a dollar is worth. Then even if you do get in the top 10% of earners or inherit, they tell you cant change anything and you have to pay huge tax bills. The only way to win is to not play. Move to flyover where shit is almost being given away.
Millennials cant afford student debt and rent. Check mate. Time to move to flyover and start over. The smart money is leaving as fast as they can.
REPLY
californianative
November 2, 2015 at 5:47 am
I see this first hand in my own family. A niece, now 32 years old, not married, splits her time between her parents home and living with her boyfriend ( who lives in his Aunts home!). Looking at her facebook page you would think she is making a fortune with all the playing she does! In fact she is a college graduate ( non tech) and earns about $12,000-$15,000/year. OMG, at her age I was married with 2 kids ( and a third on the way), living in my second California home ( both owned with a mortgage). It is like the teenage phase never ends for this generation ! Of course why get married when the government gives all kinds of goodies to the single Moms ( she has no children yet). I do feel for this generation, two of my kids are married and scraping by, the third is living in my basement. He could afford to move out but he would rather save money and besides if he asks nicely my wife ( his mother) will do his laundry for him!
REPLY
californianative
November 2, 2015 at 5:56 am
The mere fact that I have a basement tells you I no longer live in California. I left in 1994, taking 4 other native born Californians with me. Although I missed out on the great real estate run up preceding the dot com and current bubble I have quadrupled my income and increased my net worth significantly. My children all make more money than my niece in California ( they range from $ 35,000-$ 50,000/yr) and live in the Southeast where the cost of living is at least 30% less. My niece could never leave the beautiful coastal California weather. I mean if I was contemplating homelessness ( as she must be at times)
I would rather live under a bridge in Coastal California than any where else in the continental U.S. !
REPLY
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Nimesh: I live in Chicago and I find it very interesting how people engage in herd/group thinking behavior. When...
Nimesh: One day they will pay for their crimes. Sorry pal, but that one day will never come....
californianative: The mere fact that I have a basement tells you I no longer live in California. I left in 1994,...
Popular Housing Blog Articles
Is the middle class dream an illusion for Californians?
The monster lurking in the shadow inventory
The true picture of the California Housing Market
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Corona Del Mar most expensive zip code foreclosure examples
Global housing bubbles collapse like dominoes
The new American dream of renting
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American savings. Americans save an average of $392 per year.
The truth about Option ARMs, Pick-a-Pay mortgages, and Alt-A loans.
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Housing Apocalypse Tomorrow Homes with no mortgage payment in two years
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History of a Housing Bubble - LA Times Archive From Previous Housing Bubble
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WestsideREmeltdown
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Google
Loan Modification Ebook
Real Estate Cycles (1800 - 2005)
The content on Dr. Housing Bubble Blog is provided as general information only and should not be taken as investment advice. All site content, including advertisements, shall not be construed as a recommendation to buy or sell any security or financial instrument, or to participate in any particular trading or investment strategy. The ideas expressed on this site are solely the opinions of the author(s) who may or may not have a position in any company or advertiser referenced above. Any action that you take as a result of information, analysis, or advertisement on this site is ultimately your responsibility. Consult your investment adviser before making any investment decisions.
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Why do so many young adults live at home? A record 34.5 percent of Millennials live at home with their parents in California.
A record 34.5 percent of Millennials live at home with their parents in California. This rate is higher than the national rate of 30.3 percent which is already incredibly high. There is ample evidence suggesting that Millennials simply do not want the same things as their Taco Tuesday baby boomer parents. And many simply dont want the McMansion aspiration since many are going to have small families. This is an interesting shift. Boomers are trying to off load larger crap shacks to an audience that is more interested in smaller more centrally accessible properties. In California, those young adults that arent living at home are likely living in a rental and paying close to half their income on housing. Good luck saving that 20 percent down payment on a $700,000 crap shack (or $1 million crap shack in the Bay Area). So why do so many young adults live at home if the recession ended in 2009, more than half-a-decade ago?
Young adults living at home
It should come as no surprise that there are a record number of young adults living at home. A Fed study found that one major reason stems from younger Americans having massive debt, largely in the form of student debt. The latest figures show student debt outstanding at $1.3 trillion. This is an increase of $1 trillion in the last decade or so. So many young adults are starting life with a mini mortgage already.
Let us look at the changing trends here:
living at home with a parent
Source: Census
In 2000, only 24.6 percent of those age 18 to 34 were living at home with a parent in California. That number has increased by nearly 10 percent to 34.5 percent today. Why this is significant is this is the age range when households begin to form. Keep in mind this is household formation meaning buying and renting. Not only is it hard for young people to buy a home in California but many are confronting the rental Apocalypse head-on.
It is expensive to purchase a home when your income isnt keeping up as well:
median earnings
Inflation adjusted income for Millennials is down and household costs are up big time. In California, housing prices are driven up by investors, foreign buyers, and a large dose of NIMBYism. So many young Californians are left living at home deep into young adulthood.
Usually the urgent house humping rush to buy comes from adding members to your household. Yet the size of the American family has been shrinking dramatically. All logic is tossed aside when there is this sudden urge to nest. I get countless emails from those with little babies or people that are pregnant that suddenly need a bigger home. Screw planning for retirement, we need a crap shack now! But overall, there is less pressure from Millennials because many are waiting to get married:
never married
In 1980, 44.6 percent of those age 18 to 34 were never married. In other words, the majority in this age group was already married. Today, 68.8 percent in this age group have never married. That is a dramatic shift in household dynamics. And once married, how many kids will these couples have? It is interesting that the larger baby boomer homes are serving their purpose as their adult kids come back and live at home.
And this also impacts the retirement situation for these boomers. Many will try to help their kids to purchase a home so there goes a big chunk of money. Many dont have this money so simply allow their kids to stay at home keeping them from actually selling their property to downsize. What is abundantly clear is that the Millennial age group is having a tough time buying homes in California. California actually leads the nation with young adults living at home.
But you want a starter home you say. Here is a starter home for you:
starter home
706 N Madison Ave,
Los Angeles, CA 90029
1 bed with 400 square feet
Let us look at the ad on this starter home:
Great starter home! This is a fixer upper but full of possibilities for the creative type! Close to LA City College, shopping, fwy access and downtown L.A. Property is being sold in its current As Is condition. Great opportunity for investors: property is in RD1.51XL zoning!
This place will only cost you $409,000 and is full of possibilities as the ad says. The current tax assessment is based on a value of $49,680 so gear up to pay 10 times the amount of annual taxes as the current owner. This is thanks to California NIMBYism like thinking. And you wonder why the young in California are living at home in record numbers.
Did You Enjoy The Post? Subscribe to Dr. Housing Bubbles Blog to get updated housing commentary, analysis, and information.
1 Nov, 2015 housing-data, market analysis, young homebuyers
14 Responses to Why do so many young adults live at home? A record 34.5 percent of Millennials live at home with their parents in California.
Alex in San jose
November 1, 2015 at 2:31 pm
How many can afford $1000 a month or more to live in a hole in the wall?
Better to stay home and save money.
REPLY
Paul - ( not a Realtor )
November 1, 2015 at 4:51 pm
Lets face it we have not provided the needed careers and pathways for our young adults to make enough income for today and then for later years. As a result they know they cannot afford to buy a house, not even a condo. Paying sky high rent means that the young adults cannot SAVE money for their future .. or even for the unexpected emergency. ALL TO THE CREDIT OF THE WALL STREET FRAUDSTERS THAT RUINED THE ECONOMY ..and TO THE CREDIT OF THE LARCENOUS REAL ESTATE INDUSTRY (i.e. Agents,Brokers,Bank Loan Mortgagors, Escrow people) WHO ONLY CARE ABOUT THEIR COMMISSIONS, KICK BACKS and BRIBES ALL MADE POSSIBLE BY THEIR NEVER ENDING LIES and GREED. ( ** One day they will all PAY DEARLY for their CRIMES !!! ** ).
REPLY
Alex in San jose
November 1, 2015 at 11:12 pm
Amen! We have huge income inequality now in the USA. The average worker cant afford a standard residence. We really need workers barracks and SROs and rooming houses but the RE industry only caters to the upper middle class and to them, everyone else can just sleep under a bridge.
Nimesh
November 2, 2015 at 7:14 am
One day they will pay for their crimes.
Sorry pal, but that one day will never come. Intrinsically we believe that somehow or someway bad deeds will one day be punished and the good deeds will be rewarded. I guess that is human nature to think that good always wins out against evil. But that is not how the real world works.
No one got punished during the last financial crisis and no one will be punished in the next ensuing financial crisis.
interesting
November 2, 2015 at 1:01 am
a one bedroom apartment in socal is about $1400 a month is a so so neighborhood
REPLY
unit472
November 1, 2015 at 3:51 pm
Real Estate mogul Sam Zell sold off almost 25,000 rental units recently. These were mostly suburban low rise and mid-rise units. Retained by his company were apartments in urban centers.
The trend maybe that urban cores are to be gentrified and the urban underclass relocated to decaying suburban rental housing. The caveat here would be that many central cities are heading for bankruptcy as a result of pension obligations. Chicago, Philadelphia, Houston and Los Angeles would be on this list.
REPLY
Alex in San jose
November 1, 2015 at 11:07 pm
Unit Thats how it is in urban France. The elites live in the city the more central the better, and the suburbs are for the second-rate people.
REPLY
Homerun
November 2, 2015 at 1:14 am
Makes sense what maybe going on. Pension crisis may be the next problem for the economy. No more safety nets for public services. Every man for himself now. How would homes or any properties be able to hold their value if there is no guarantee of safety nets for our public services when they retire. No way homes could maintain their values in high priced cities.
all IMO
REPLY
Nimesh
November 2, 2015 at 7:19 am
I live in Chicago and I find it very interesting how people engage in herd/group thinking behavior. When buying a home, one needs to evaluate the neighborhood and the financial status of your local city, county and state. By all measures these big cities are a financial mess. Yet the lemmings are clamoring to move in.
Chicago just passed a record half a billion dollar property tax increase. Then after they voted for it. Not even 24 hours passed and some alderman said on news forums that that wont be enough, we will try our best but we may need a bigger property tax increase in the future. I kid you not.
If you buy in Chicago, Philadelphia, Boston, New York, etc. then you are a hostage to the city and their liberal politicians. The politicians must be happy as a clam that they get to tax the shit out of property owners.
REPLY
Flyover
November 1, 2015 at 9:14 pm
Good article Doc!
While what you say is true, this trend is not only going to continue as is, but it is going to deteriorate significantly.
We should thank all our globalist politicians elected left and right literaly.
For those very sensitive to the world liberal, yes Obama is a liberal and a globalist and Clinton even more so than Obama. And I dont have a problem ONLY with liberals but all those RINOs like Bush, McCain and Romney who are globalists, too.
For those who dont see the connection between their globalist policies (more and more trade agreements) and the disapearance of the middle class, they must be blind and with no critical thinking.
Prety soon CA will have only super rich and super poor and SoCal will look like a thirld world hole if not already there.
Yes, I know there will be plenty of those contradicting what I am saying, but that is not going to reverse the trend or change the truth.
REPLY
Alex in San jose
November 1, 2015 at 11:18 pm
A greater rate of marriage here in California? Well knock me over with a feather. I guess it must be the large portion of our population for which family means something.
REPLY
IPFreely
November 2, 2015 at 12:51 am
The game Monopoly was specifically created to teach people what happens when the land becomes monopolized. She thought if the kids learned it at a young age they would know what NOT to do later on. For some reason this lesson has not been learned even though everyone knows what happens at the end of the game. There are actually two lessons though. Lesson number one is that most all of the players lose everything. Lesson number two is that even the winner loses because he no longer has anyone to ride his railroads or rent his properties. A third minor lesson that is written into the instructions is that if the bank runs out of money you are free to look around for any scrap pieces of paper laying around and make new money to keep the game going. Most people try to keep the game going to avoid violence. Isnt that what the fed is doing?
The problem with the real world is you are competing with people that have already been around the board many times and already bought everything up. You are also being overrun with foreigners who dont even know what a dollar is worth. Then even if you do get in the top 10% of earners or inherit, they tell you cant change anything and you have to pay huge tax bills. The only way to win is to not play. Move to flyover where shit is almost being given away.
Millennials cant afford student debt and rent. Check mate. Time to move to flyover and start over. The smart money is leaving as fast as they can.
REPLY
californianative
November 2, 2015 at 5:47 am
I see this first hand in my own family. A niece, now 32 years old, not married, splits her time between her parents home and living with her boyfriend ( who lives in his Aunts home!). Looking at her facebook page you would think she is making a fortune with all the playing she does! In fact she is a college graduate ( non tech) and earns about $12,000-$15,000/year. OMG, at her age I was married with 2 kids ( and a third on the way), living in my second California home ( both owned with a mortgage). It is like the teenage phase never ends for this generation ! Of course why get married when the government gives all kinds of goodies to the single Moms ( she has no children yet). I do feel for this generation, two of my kids are married and scraping by, the third is living in my basement. He could afford to move out but he would rather save money and besides if he asks nicely my wife ( his mother) will do his laundry for him!
REPLY
californianative
November 2, 2015 at 5:56 am
The mere fact that I have a basement tells you I no longer live in California. I left in 1994, taking 4 other native born Californians with me. Although I missed out on the great real estate run up preceding the dot com and current bubble I have quadrupled my income and increased my net worth significantly. My children all make more money than my niece in California ( they range from $ 35,000-$ 50,000/yr) and live in the Southeast where the cost of living is at least 30% less. My niece could never leave the beautiful coastal California weather. I mean if I was contemplating homelessness ( as she must be at times)
I would rather live under a bridge in Coastal California than any where else in the continental U.S. !
REPLY
Leave a Reply
Name (*)
E-mail (*)
URI
Message
Submit Comment
Invest in a new Merrill Edge® account and get up to $600
Enter your email address to receive updates from Dr. Housing Bubble:
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COMMENTS
TOP COMMENTATORS
TOPICS
POPULAR
Nimesh: I live in Chicago and I find it very interesting how people engage in herd/group thinking behavior. When...
Nimesh: One day they will pay for their crimes. Sorry pal, but that one day will never come....
californianative: The mere fact that I have a basement tells you I no longer live in California. I left in 1994,...
Popular Housing Blog Articles
Is the middle class dream an illusion for Californians?
The monster lurking in the shadow inventory
The true picture of the California Housing Market
Short sales and foreclosure made up 52 percent of all recent SoCal home sales
Corona Del Mar most expensive zip code foreclosure examples
Global housing bubbles collapse like dominoes
The new American dream of renting
Popular - all-time articles
American savings. Americans save an average of $392 per year.
The truth about Option ARMs, Pick-a-Pay mortgages, and Alt-A loans.
Lehman Brothers: The Rise and Fall of Lehman Brothers
Housing Apocalypse Tomorrow Homes with no mortgage payment in two years
The other CA Bubble - Canada Housing Bubble ripe for popping
Blogroll
Life, Politics, Economics, and Wealth
Bull! Not Bull!
Calculated Risk
Clive Maund
Commonsense Forecaster
Daneric's Elliott Waves
*Dollar Collapse
Economist's View
FallStreet
Fiend SuperBear
Finance my Money
Financial Sense
Jesse's Cafe Americain
Max Keiser
My Budget 360
Itulip.com
Robb Wolf - Paleo
The Mess That Greenspan Made
The Burning Platform
Of Two Minds
SteveQuayle.com
Survival Blog
W.C. Varones Blog
Zero Hedge
Preppers : TheSurvivalistBlog.net
California Real Estate
Bay Area RE Trends
Bubble Meter
History of a Housing Bubble - LA Times Archive From Previous Housing Bubble
Irvine Housing Blog
Long Beach RE Blog
OChousingnews
Patrick.net
Piggington's Econo-Almanac (San Diego Info)
Sacramento Land(ing)
WestsideREmeltdown
National Real Estate
Countrywide-Foreclosures Blog
Great Depression of 2006
House Bubble
Housing Chronicles
Housing Panic
Housing Panic 2.0
HousingTracker (Real Estate Market Stats)
Housingwire
*Mortgage Lender Implode-O-Meter
Paper Economy
Regional Housing Blogs
Portland Housing Blog
UK Housing Bubble
Other Housing Related Sites
Home Fish
Foreclosures
Other Sites
Daily Crash Report
Housing Data and Finance Blogs
Loan Modification Ebook
Real Estate Cycles (1800 - 2005)
The content on Dr. Housing Bubble Blog is provided as general information only and should not be taken as investment advice. All site content, including advertisements, shall not be construed as a recommendation to buy or sell any security or financial instrument, or to participate in any particular trading or investment strategy. The ideas expressed on this site are solely the opinions of the author(s) who may or may not have a position in any company or advertiser referenced above. Any action that you take as a result of information, analysis, or advertisement on this site is ultimately your responsibility. Consult your investment adviser before making any investment decisions.
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A tale of two cities: How San Francisco surged forward while LA fell behind
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LASF authorsFor most of the twentieth century, the Los Angeles region had one of the countys best performing economies. But now, incomes of those in the San Francisco Bay area outpace those in LA by a third. In their new book, Michael Storper, Thomas Kemeny, Naji Makarem, & Taner Osman take a close look at how San Francisco has thrived while Los Angeles stagnated. They argue that the Bay Area created an ecosystem of invention and innovation that allowed Silicon Valley to arise and thrive, even as LAs industries remained largely siloed.
Cities and regions have very different fortunes over time, and it is hard to predict them. The ups and downs of big metropolitan areas make a huge difference to the people who live in them, creating and destroying opportunity. They drive people in and drive people away. The ups lead to flourishing public facilities, while the downs lead to deterioration of the urban environment.
It is one thing to observe the conditions that, on average, separate successful or rising regions from less successful ones. But the averages only get us so far. Underneath them are chains of events; pathways that are defined and can become self-reinforcing. Consider Greater Los Angeles and the San Francisco Bay Area, two urban centers that have diverged sharply in recent decades. In 1970 they had about equal per capita incomes, but, as Figure 1 show, today incomes of people in the Bay Area are one-third higher than in Southern California. The Bay Area is in a group of metropolitan areas that took the high road in terms of incomes, including New York, Chicago, Boston Washington DC and Philadelphia. Greater Los Angeless income growth is more like that of Detroit.
Figure 1 Evolution of per capita personal income, 1970-2012
Storper Fig 1
The evolution of per capita personal incomes in large metropolitan areas, 1970-2012. Source: Authors calculations using Bureau of Economic Affairs Regional Economic Accounts data.
All in all, the Bay Area is an example of how a region successfully enters the New Economy, while LAthe star economy among US regions for nearly 70 years in the twentieth centurydid much worse than its northern neighbor. How did this happen and what are the lessons we can learn from it?
At the outset, both cities could boast the initial building blocks that would, in the Bay Area, eventually flower into a booming tech industryin fact, in some ways these initial factors, such as the presence of world-class technology companies and the pool of highly-skilled engineers and technologists, looked more promising in LA than in San Francisco. LA made more semiconductors than the Bay Area in 1970. The first Internet message was sent from University of California, Los Angeles. LA was home base for mythical entrepreneurs for much of the twentieth century, from movies to aerospace. But once the age of IT arrived, all the Steve Jobs, Bill Hewletts and William Shockleysthe key entrepreneurs of the New Economy, were in the north, not the south.
Part of it might be luck. But, as the saying goes, fortune favors the prepared. And this is the real key to why San Francisco became the center of the world IT industry and LA did not.
Southern Californias firms, industries, and political leaders were conservative in facing this new world. LAs industries were largely siloed, with the worlds of Hollywood, aerospace, the creative industries, and academia separated from one another and no leadership groups to bring them together to mobilize for the New Economy. In contrast, the Bay Area had cross-fertilization mechanisms that allowed new skills and practices to emerge rapidly. The IT world blended older engineering communities with young hippie technologists and appropriate technology environmentalists, and both were mixed in with academic researchers. This created the unique user-friendly approach to new technologies that the Bay Area captured, while LAs tech firms remained oriented to their traditional clients in mass production and the military.
Economics and society interact. They come together in these organizational or relational structuresin firms, leadership groups, and attitudes or simply a sense of possibility. Regional business leadership in the Bay Area grasped the existence of the New Economy early on. In LA, leaders pushed policies for old economy revival, which reinforced the growing low-wage employment in that region. And the New Economy industries that arose in Orange County were big, but were second-stringers, applying traditional corporate models to new technologies, but not inventing them from the bottom up. LA never got the ecosystem of innovation and invention that the Bay Area created, even though LA had had the greatest innovation ecosystem of the first part of the twentieth century.
The story repeated itself with biotechnology. The early invention of gene splicing occurred almost simultaneously at the University of California San Francisco and City of Hope hospital in Hollywood. The early scientist-entrepreneurs were in both regions. The first big biotech firm, Amgen, established itself in LA. But Amgen quickly turned into a traditional companybig, go-it-alone, managed by MBAs, not scientists. Genentech went the other direction, following the Bay Area New Economy approach: small, nimble, with many spinoffs, managed by scientists, with a revolving door to an expanding community of spin-offs and networks of people with new ideas. Biotech became a big cluster in the Bay Area, a big company in LAbut the Bay Area won out, generating many more jobs than LA.
Hollywood was, and continues to be, LAs success story, the undisputed world capital of entertainment. Hollywood became a New Economy industry even before IT, by reshaping itself in the 1970s. But Hollywood is too small to carry the whole Southern California economy on its shoulders, and it is too isolated from the rest of the regions activities. The boards of directors of Hollywood firms do not contain people from tech and vice-versa. By contrast, both within the tech world and between tech and the rest of the Bay Area economy, boards of directors are networked: they talk across boundaries.
Both regions followed essentially the same economic policies, rather traditional in nature: mega-projects, tax incentives, and even job training, but these had little impact on the divergence in economic development between the two metro areas. Thats because such policies do not address the real issue: the capacity of regions to allow their labor, capital, and talent to combine and recombine in ways that follow the evolution of opportunities in the wider economic environment. The networks of groups and leaders in Los Angeles had few conversations about this (they were overly confident) and the conversations they had were backward looking. By contrast, the Bay Area strengthened its networksespecially through the Bay Area Councilfor such conversations to take place, and people there quickly understood that the old economy was old, and a new economy was there, from which they could innovate and prosper. LA had no equivalent of the Bay Area Council, but instead a fragmented world of different groups who were mostly backward-looking.
Greater LA is still a relatively wealthy region, full of creativity, cultural power, good academic institutions, and a talent base from around the world. What it lacks is a way of pulling all this together.
The Bay Area is perhaps the worlds leading tech economy, wealthy and beautiful. But the Bay Area should not rest on its laurels. In 1960, Detroit was an undisputed capital of American industrial might. Nothing lasts forever.
rise and fall bookThis article first appeared at the Stanford University Press blog, and is based on the new book,The Rise and Fall of Urban Economies, which draws on economics, sociology, political science, and geography to shed light on the economic development of metropolitan regions.
Featured image credits: Daniel Ronan (Flickr, CC-BY-2.0); Dave Reichert (Flickr, CC-BY-NC-2.0)
Please read our comments policy before commenting.
Note: This article gives the views of the author, and not the position of USAPP American Politics and Policy, nor the London School of Economics.
Shortened URL for this post: http://bit.ly/1kmifhl
_________________________________
About the authors
Michael Storper 80x108Michael Storper University of California, Los Angeles
Michael Storper is Professor of Urban Planning at the University of California, Los Angeles. He is co-author of The Rise and Fall of Urban Economies: Lessons from San Francisco and Los Angeles.
Thomas Kemeny 80x108Thomas Kemeny University of Southampton
Thomas Kemeny is Lecturer in Human Geography at the University of Southampton and co-author ofThe Rise and Fall of Urban Economies: Lessons from San Francisco and Los Angeles.
Naji Makarem 80x108Naji Makarem University College London
Naji Makarem is Lecturer in the Bartlett Development Planning Unit at University College London and co-author of The Rise and Fall of Urban Economies: Lessons from San Francisco and Los Angeles.
Taner Osman 80x108Taner Osman University of California, Los Angeles
Taner Osman is an instructor in the Department of Urban Planning at the University of California, Los Angeles and co-author of The Rise and Fall of Urban Economies: Lessons from San Francisco and Los Angeles.
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A tale of two cities: How San Francisco surged forward while LA fell behind
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LASF authorsFor most of the twentieth century, the Los Angeles region had one of the countys best performing economies. But now, incomes of those in the San Francisco Bay area outpace those in LA by a third. In their new book, Michael Storper, Thomas Kemeny, Naji Makarem, & Taner Osman take a close look at how San Francisco has thrived while Los Angeles stagnated. They argue that the Bay Area created an ecosystem of invention and innovation that allowed Silicon Valley to arise and thrive, even as LAs industries remained largely siloed.
Cities and regions have very different fortunes over time, and it is hard to predict them. The ups and downs of big metropolitan areas make a huge difference to the people who live in them, creating and destroying opportunity. They drive people in and drive people away. The ups lead to flourishing public facilities, while the downs lead to deterioration of the urban environment.
It is one thing to observe the conditions that, on average, separate successful or rising regions from less successful ones. But the averages only get us so far. Underneath them are chains of events; pathways that are defined and can become self-reinforcing. Consider Greater Los Angeles and the San Francisco Bay Area, two urban centers that have diverged sharply in recent decades. In 1970 they had about equal per capita incomes, but, as Figure 1 show, today incomes of people in the Bay Area are one-third higher than in Southern California. The Bay Area is in a group of metropolitan areas that took the high road in terms of incomes, including New York, Chicago, Boston Washington DC and Philadelphia. Greater Los Angeless income growth is more like that of Detroit.
Figure 1 Evolution of per capita personal income, 1970-2012
Storper Fig 1
The evolution of per capita personal incomes in large metropolitan areas, 1970-2012. Source: Authors calculations using Bureau of Economic Affairs Regional Economic Accounts data.
All in all, the Bay Area is an example of how a region successfully enters the New Economy, while LAthe star economy among US regions for nearly 70 years in the twentieth centurydid much worse than its northern neighbor. How did this happen and what are the lessons we can learn from it?
At the outset, both cities could boast the initial building blocks that would, in the Bay Area, eventually flower into a booming tech industryin fact, in some ways these initial factors, such as the presence of world-class technology companies and the pool of highly-skilled engineers and technologists, looked more promising in LA than in San Francisco. LA made more semiconductors than the Bay Area in 1970. The first Internet message was sent from University of California, Los Angeles. LA was home base for mythical entrepreneurs for much of the twentieth century, from movies to aerospace. But once the age of IT arrived, all the Steve Jobs, Bill Hewletts and William Shockleysthe key entrepreneurs of the New Economy, were in the north, not the south.
Part of it might be luck. But, as the saying goes, fortune favors the prepared. And this is the real key to why San Francisco became the center of the world IT industry and LA did not.
Southern Californias firms, industries, and political leaders were conservative in facing this new world. LAs industries were largely siloed, with the worlds of Hollywood, aerospace, the creative industries, and academia separated from one another and no leadership groups to bring them together to mobilize for the New Economy. In contrast, the Bay Area had cross-fertilization mechanisms that allowed new skills and practices to emerge rapidly. The IT world blended older engineering communities with young hippie technologists and appropriate technology environmentalists, and both were mixed in with academic researchers. This created the unique user-friendly approach to new technologies that the Bay Area captured, while LAs tech firms remained oriented to their traditional clients in mass production and the military.
Economics and society interact. They come together in these organizational or relational structuresin firms, leadership groups, and attitudes or simply a sense of possibility. Regional business leadership in the Bay Area grasped the existence of the New Economy early on. In LA, leaders pushed policies for old economy revival, which reinforced the growing low-wage employment in that region. And the New Economy industries that arose in Orange County were big, but were second-stringers, applying traditional corporate models to new technologies, but not inventing them from the bottom up. LA never got the ecosystem of innovation and invention that the Bay Area created, even though LA had had the greatest innovation ecosystem of the first part of the twentieth century.
The story repeated itself with biotechnology. The early invention of gene splicing occurred almost simultaneously at the University of California San Francisco and City of Hope hospital in Hollywood. The early scientist-entrepreneurs were in both regions. The first big biotech firm, Amgen, established itself in LA. But Amgen quickly turned into a traditional companybig, go-it-alone, managed by MBAs, not scientists. Genentech went the other direction, following the Bay Area New Economy approach: small, nimble, with many spinoffs, managed by scientists, with a revolving door to an expanding community of spin-offs and networks of people with new ideas. Biotech became a big cluster in the Bay Area, a big company in LAbut the Bay Area won out, generating many more jobs than LA.
Hollywood was, and continues to be, LAs success story, the undisputed world capital of entertainment. Hollywood became a New Economy industry even before IT, by reshaping itself in the 1970s. But Hollywood is too small to carry the whole Southern California economy on its shoulders, and it is too isolated from the rest of the regions activities. The boards of directors of Hollywood firms do not contain people from tech and vice-versa. By contrast, both within the tech world and between tech and the rest of the Bay Area economy, boards of directors are networked: they talk across boundaries.
Both regions followed essentially the same economic policies, rather traditional in nature: mega-projects, tax incentives, and even job training, but these had little impact on the divergence in economic development between the two metro areas. Thats because such policies do not address the real issue: the capacity of regions to allow their labor, capital, and talent to combine and recombine in ways that follow the evolution of opportunities in the wider economic environment. The networks of groups and leaders in Los Angeles had few conversations about this (they were overly confident) and the conversations they had were backward looking. By contrast, the Bay Area strengthened its networksespecially through the Bay Area Councilfor such conversations to take place, and people there quickly understood that the old economy was old, and a new economy was there, from which they could innovate and prosper. LA had no equivalent of the Bay Area Council, but instead a fragmented world of different groups who were mostly backward-looking.
Greater LA is still a relatively wealthy region, full of creativity, cultural power, good academic institutions, and a talent base from around the world. What it lacks is a way of pulling all this together.
The Bay Area is perhaps the worlds leading tech economy, wealthy and beautiful. But the Bay Area should not rest on its laurels. In 1960, Detroit was an undisputed capital of American industrial might. Nothing lasts forever.
rise and fall bookThis article first appeared at the Stanford University Press blog, and is based on the new book,The Rise and Fall of Urban Economies, which draws on economics, sociology, political science, and geography to shed light on the economic development of metropolitan regions.
Featured image credits: Daniel Ronan (Flickr, CC-BY-2.0); Dave Reichert (Flickr, CC-BY-NC-2.0)
Please read our comments policy before commenting.
Note: This article gives the views of the author, and not the position of USAPP American Politics and Policy, nor the London School of Economics.
Shortened URL for this post: http://bit.ly/1kmifhl
_________________________________
About the authors
Michael Storper 80x108Michael Storper University of California, Los Angeles
Michael Storper is Professor of Urban Planning at the University of California, Los Angeles. He is co-author of The Rise and Fall of Urban Economies: Lessons from San Francisco and Los Angeles.
Thomas Kemeny 80x108Thomas Kemeny University of Southampton
Thomas Kemeny is Lecturer in Human Geography at the University of Southampton and co-author ofThe Rise and Fall of Urban Economies: Lessons from San Francisco and Los Angeles.
Naji Makarem 80x108Naji Makarem University College London
Naji Makarem is Lecturer in the Bartlett Development Planning Unit at University College London and co-author of The Rise and Fall of Urban Economies: Lessons from San Francisco and Los Angeles.
Taner Osman 80x108Taner Osman University of California, Los Angeles
Taner Osman is an instructor in the Department of Urban Planning at the University of California, Los Angeles and co-author of The Rise and Fall of Urban Economies: Lessons from San Francisco and Los Angeles.
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RSS LATEST LSE EVENTS PODCASTS
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CC BY-NC 3.0 2015 LSE USAPP
This work by LSE USApp blog is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivs 3.0 Unported.
Nov 3, 2015 08:13:59 #
Honolulu Takes "Most Overpriced City" Title - Honolulu, Hawaii News and Weather - KITV Channel 4
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Honolulu Takes "Most Overpriced City" Title
Posted: Nov 02, 2015 7:46 AM PST
Updated: Nov 02, 2015 4:24 PM PST
By Lara YamadaCONNECT
HONOLULU -
Honolulu has been named the most overpriced city in the U.S.
Forbes Magazine marks the median income in the islands at $82,600 dollars, but only 35 percent of residents are able to buy a home.
Groceries come in at 55 percent above the national average.
Utilities nearly 78 percent above the average and transportation at 26 percent above.
Right behind Hawaii in the rankings is the Bridgeport-Stamford region in Connecticut.
Boston comes in at Number three, New York City at Number four, and Cambridge, Massachusetts at Number five.
According to Real Property Management Alliance, part of the nations leading property management franchise organization, and RentRange, the nations leading provider of Rental Market Intelligence Honolulu rent home rates are rising.
According to Real Property Management Alliance, part of the nations leading property management franchise organization, and RentRange, the nations leading provider of Rental Market Intelligence Honolulu rent home rates are rising.
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7
Honolulu Takes "Most Overpriced City" Title
Posted: Nov 02, 2015 7:46 AM PST
Updated: Nov 02, 2015 4:24 PM PST
By Lara YamadaCONNECT
HONOLULU -
Honolulu has been named the most overpriced city in the U.S.
Forbes Magazine marks the median income in the islands at $82,600 dollars, but only 35 percent of residents are able to buy a home.
Groceries come in at 55 percent above the national average.
Utilities nearly 78 percent above the average and transportation at 26 percent above.
Right behind Hawaii in the rankings is the Bridgeport-Stamford region in Connecticut.
Boston comes in at Number three, New York City at Number four, and Cambridge, Massachusetts at Number five.
According to Real Property Management Alliance, part of the nations leading property management franchise organization, and RentRange, the nations leading provider of Rental Market Intelligence Honolulu rent home rates are rising.
According to Real Property Management Alliance, part of the nations leading property management franchise organization, and RentRange, the nations leading provider of Rental Market Intelligence Honolulu rent home rates are rising.
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Nov 5, 2015 11:59:02 #
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TRENDS
Is California the Worst Place in America to Live?
By
Lisa Davis
6:08 pm ET
November 4, 2015
cali-worst
Sign: wellesenterprises/iStock; thumb: Big_Ryan/iStock
Ah, the Golden State, with its glassy Pacific beaches and its hazy sunshine. California really is the promised land.
Or is it?
A study released on Tuesday by WalletHub counted the best and worst small cities in America. The bottom 23, out of the 1,268 ranked, were in California, with the city of Bell toppingwell, bottomingthe list.
Has the Golden State lost its shine?
Please, Mr. Postman
Send me news, tips, and promos from realtor.com® and Move.
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We were surprised that so many of the worst cities were in California, says Jill Gonzalez, an analyst at WalletHub. But a lot of this is just snowballing down from the economic factors.
WalletHub measured factors including poverty rate; number of restaurants per 100,000 residents; unemployment rate; school system ranking; crime; and homeownership.
What it found was a tale of two states, both geographically and socioeconomically. Californiathe most economically unequal state in the nation, according to a separate reportalso is home to 15 out of 20 of our most expensive cities. A closer look reveals why.
Whereas some of the best places to live are in the tech-booming areas of Northern CaliforniaLos Gatos (which has the second-lowest level of residents below poverty level) in Silicon Valley checks in at 109, and Los Altos at 122 (theyre not at the top because theyre just not affordable enough)the great bulk of the states low-ranked cities are in Southern California. Most of them are in southern Los Angeles County, including Lynwood, Compton, Huntington Park, and Bell Gardens.
These cities were designed as workforce housing when there were a lot of manufacturing jobs in California and you could afford a home, says Josué Barrios, a Realtor® in Downey, a town in the same area. But things went downhill in the 1980s. Those jobs have left, and they havent been replaced. More recently, the recession compounded the economic malaise.
Then there are the environmental factors. Theyre sandwiched between major freight corridors that come in from the ports, says Barrios. Those clogged freeways contribute to major pollution, and, in addition to the health hazards, they make locals commutes risky.
Many of the cities are food desertsareas without easy access to healthy food, which contributes to rampant childhood obesity. According to Barrios, this is because land-use and zoning laws make it easier to open a liquor store than a grocery store.
Meanwhile, despite their lack of desirability, housing still isnt cheap. The average home price in Bell, the worst small city in America according to this ranking, is a whopping $499,000.
In a lot of these cities, people just arent pulling in the household income to afford a home, says Gonzalez. You might not get the same cost of living in Compton [as in] Los Angeles, but its definitely skewing higher than the middle of America.
So people just cant afford to buy a home. Low homeownership rates generally correlate to a lower quality of life, because residents arent as invested in their community, Barrios says.
(Homeownership is low in some wealthy areas, too. The highest housing costs and lowest homeownership rate in WalletHubs ranking is in West Hollywood.)
The five cities on the list with the lowest level of college grads were all in California, and their public schools suffer from neglect, Barrios says.
Without the good schools, the jobs, and the safe streets, these cities have also seen population loss, another of the ranking factors.
Theres a large exodus from these places, says Gonzalez.
It sounds dismal, but for his part, Barrios, who grew up in the area and was even mayor of Cudahy, a town just south of Bell, isnt discouraged. Hes seen a new generation of legislative leadership and already heard rumblings of change, with new parks, talks of rerouting the freeways, and commitments to reinventing the schools.
I know that our cities are not going to be there in five or 10 years, he says, but Im hopeful.
Lisa Davis
Lisa Davis covers news and trends for realtor.com. She's written for The New York Times, The Wall Street Journal, and Time, among many others. She's the author of two novels, Belly" and the forthcoming "Lost Stars."
Follow @lisaselindavis
View Lisa's Stories »
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Video Exclusive: We Went Inside San Franciscos $350,000 Shack!
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Home > News > Trends
TRENDS
Is California the Worst Place in America to Live?
By
Lisa Davis
6:08 pm ET
November 4, 2015
cali-worst
Sign: wellesenterprises/iStock; thumb: Big_Ryan/iStock
Ah, the Golden State, with its glassy Pacific beaches and its hazy sunshine. California really is the promised land.
Or is it?
A study released on Tuesday by WalletHub counted the best and worst small cities in America. The bottom 23, out of the 1,268 ranked, were in California, with the city of Bell toppingwell, bottomingthe list.
Has the Golden State lost its shine?
Please, Mr. Postman
Send me news, tips, and promos from realtor.com® and Move.
Enter your email address
Sign Up
We were surprised that so many of the worst cities were in California, says Jill Gonzalez, an analyst at WalletHub. But a lot of this is just snowballing down from the economic factors.
WalletHub measured factors including poverty rate; number of restaurants per 100,000 residents; unemployment rate; school system ranking; crime; and homeownership.
What it found was a tale of two states, both geographically and socioeconomically. Californiathe most economically unequal state in the nation, according to a separate reportalso is home to 15 out of 20 of our most expensive cities. A closer look reveals why.
Whereas some of the best places to live are in the tech-booming areas of Northern CaliforniaLos Gatos (which has the second-lowest level of residents below poverty level) in Silicon Valley checks in at 109, and Los Altos at 122 (theyre not at the top because theyre just not affordable enough)the great bulk of the states low-ranked cities are in Southern California. Most of them are in southern Los Angeles County, including Lynwood, Compton, Huntington Park, and Bell Gardens.
These cities were designed as workforce housing when there were a lot of manufacturing jobs in California and you could afford a home, says Josué Barrios, a Realtor® in Downey, a town in the same area. But things went downhill in the 1980s. Those jobs have left, and they havent been replaced. More recently, the recession compounded the economic malaise.
Then there are the environmental factors. Theyre sandwiched between major freight corridors that come in from the ports, says Barrios. Those clogged freeways contribute to major pollution, and, in addition to the health hazards, they make locals commutes risky.
Many of the cities are food desertsareas without easy access to healthy food, which contributes to rampant childhood obesity. According to Barrios, this is because land-use and zoning laws make it easier to open a liquor store than a grocery store.
Meanwhile, despite their lack of desirability, housing still isnt cheap. The average home price in Bell, the worst small city in America according to this ranking, is a whopping $499,000.
In a lot of these cities, people just arent pulling in the household income to afford a home, says Gonzalez. You might not get the same cost of living in Compton [as in] Los Angeles, but its definitely skewing higher than the middle of America.
So people just cant afford to buy a home. Low homeownership rates generally correlate to a lower quality of life, because residents arent as invested in their community, Barrios says.
(Homeownership is low in some wealthy areas, too. The highest housing costs and lowest homeownership rate in WalletHubs ranking is in West Hollywood.)
The five cities on the list with the lowest level of college grads were all in California, and their public schools suffer from neglect, Barrios says.
Without the good schools, the jobs, and the safe streets, these cities have also seen population loss, another of the ranking factors.
Theres a large exodus from these places, says Gonzalez.
It sounds dismal, but for his part, Barrios, who grew up in the area and was even mayor of Cudahy, a town just south of Bell, isnt discouraged. Hes seen a new generation of legislative leadership and already heard rumblings of change, with new parks, talks of rerouting the freeways, and commitments to reinventing the schools.
I know that our cities are not going to be there in five or 10 years, he says, but Im hopeful.
Lisa Davis
Lisa Davis covers news and trends for realtor.com. She's written for The New York Times, The Wall Street Journal, and Time, among many others. She's the author of two novels, Belly" and the forthcoming "Lost Stars."
Follow @lisaselindavis
View Lisa's Stories »
Related Stories:
As Some Head Straight Outta Compton, a Neighborhood ChangesAgain
Video Exclusive: We Went Inside San Franciscos $350,000 Shack!
The Cheapest Home in One of Americas Priciest Cities: Santa Barbara
See More
best cities to livecaliforniacrimeemploymenthousing market
Search News & Advice
Search News & Advice
Search
Everyone's Reading
Dream Mansion for Only $30,000With One String Attached
Is California the Worst Place in America to Live?
Millennials Are Just as Likely to Live With Parents as to Own a Home
Another Shot: Hall of Famer Scottie Pippen Tries Selling Again in Fort Lauderdale
Tinkle, Tinkle, Little Stall: 7 Homes With Their Own Urinal
ABOUT USCAREERSFEEDBACKMEDIA ROOM
AD CHOICESADVERTISE WITH USAGENT SUPPORT PRODUCTS PRIVACY / TERMS SITEMAP
©1995-2015 National Association of REALTORS® and Move, Inc. All rights reserved.realtor.com® is the official site of the National Association of REALTORS® and is operated by Move, Inc., a subsidiary of News Corp.
Nov 6, 2015 08:32:43 #
Once upon a time there was a king who wanted to go fishing.
He called the royal weather forecasterand inquired as to the weather
forecast for the next few hours.
The weatherman assured him that there was no chance of rain in the coming
days.
So the king went fishing with his wife, the queen.
On the way he met a farmer on his donkey. Upon seeing the king the farmer
said, "Your Majesty, you should return to the palace at once because in
just a short time I expect a huge amount of rain to fall in this area.
The king was polite and considerate, he replied: "I hold the palace
meteorologist in high regard. He is an extensively educated and
experienced professional. Besides, I pay him very high wages. He gave me
a very different forecast. I trust him and I will continue on my way.
So he continued on his way. However, a short time later a torrential rain
fell from the sky. The King and Queen were totally soaked and their
entourage chuckled upon seeing them in such a shameful condition.
Furious, the king returned to the palace and gave the order to fire the
weatherman at once! Then he summoned the farmer and offered him the
prestigious and high paying role of royal forecaster.
The farmer said, "Your Majesty, I do not know anything about forecasting.
I obtain my information from my donkey. If I see my donkey's ears
drooping, it means with certainty that it will rain.
So the king hired the donkey.
***********************************************************
And so began the practice of hiring asses to work in the government, and
occupy its highest and most influential positions and which later became
the symbol for the Democrat party.
***********************************************************
Thus ends your knowledge lesson for today
He called the royal weather forecasterand inquired as to the weather
forecast for the next few hours.
The weatherman assured him that there was no chance of rain in the coming
days.
So the king went fishing with his wife, the queen.
On the way he met a farmer on his donkey. Upon seeing the king the farmer
said, "Your Majesty, you should return to the palace at once because in
just a short time I expect a huge amount of rain to fall in this area.
The king was polite and considerate, he replied: "I hold the palace
meteorologist in high regard. He is an extensively educated and
experienced professional. Besides, I pay him very high wages. He gave me
a very different forecast. I trust him and I will continue on my way.
So he continued on his way. However, a short time later a torrential rain
fell from the sky. The King and Queen were totally soaked and their
entourage chuckled upon seeing them in such a shameful condition.
Furious, the king returned to the palace and gave the order to fire the
weatherman at once! Then he summoned the farmer and offered him the
prestigious and high paying role of royal forecaster.
The farmer said, "Your Majesty, I do not know anything about forecasting.
I obtain my information from my donkey. If I see my donkey's ears
drooping, it means with certainty that it will rain.
So the king hired the donkey.
***********************************************************
And so began the practice of hiring asses to work in the government, and
occupy its highest and most influential positions and which later became
the symbol for the Democrat party.
***********************************************************
Thus ends your knowledge lesson for today
Nov 9, 2015 04:37:04 #
1. Israel's Netanyahu visits Obama in the Oval Office
The White House concedes that President Obama has had his differences with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, but the two leaders will try to work past their disagreements to make progress on a wide range of security issues involving Iran, Syria and the Palestinian conflict. Their job won't be made any easier by Netanyahu's recent appointment of a spokesman who suggested that Obama is anti-Semitic in an old Facebook post. Threats from radical Islam and Iran will likely be the focus of their talk as the administration has given up on a breakthrough between Israelis and Palestinians while Obama is in office
The White House concedes that President Obama has had his differences with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, but the two leaders will try to work past their disagreements to make progress on a wide range of security issues involving Iran, Syria and the Palestinian conflict. Their job won't be made any easier by Netanyahu's recent appointment of a spokesman who suggested that Obama is anti-Semitic in an old Facebook post. Threats from radical Islam and Iran will likely be the focus of their talk as the administration has given up on a breakthrough between Israelis and Palestinians while Obama is in office
Nov 9, 2015 04:48:32 #
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NOV 7, 2015 @ 10:01 AM 1,540 VIEWS
Five Ways Not To Get Killed When Rates Rise
Ky Trang Ho
CONTRIBUTOR
I cover investing strategies and trends in ETFs and mutual funds.
the futures market sees a 70% likelihood of a 0.5% interest rate increase at the mid-December meeting.
the first Fed rate hike in almost 10 years promises to be painful.
Gallery
The 10 Worst Ideas For Your Investment Portfolio
Launch Gallery
11 images
Stock market investors can bet their portfolios that the Federal Reserve will lift short-term interest rates at its December meeting thanks to the strong employment report Friday. As of Friday, the CME Group FedWatch tool shows the futures market sees a 70% likelihood of a 0.5% interest rate increase at the mid-December meeting. Thats a big spike from the 58% probability reading the day before and a massive jump from the 5% chance seen a month ago. Bill Gross PIMCOs former bond king whos now at Janus Capital told Bloomberg TV Friday theres a 100% chance of a rate hike at the December meeting.
For dividend-oriented and bond investors, the first Fed rate hike in almost 10 years promises to be painful. Given that prices fall when yields rise, a rate increase wipes out most if not all of the yield on income assets.
Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen testifies on Capitol Hill Nov. 4, 2015, before the House Financial Services Committee hearing on banking supervision and regulation. (AP Photo/Andrew Harnik)
Roberto CoinVoice
Five Actresses To Watch In 2016
Bonds, interest-rate sensitive sectors and dividend payers sold off Friday as the stock market reacted to the jobs report. iShares Barclays 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (TLT) fell 1.5%. Utilities SPDR ETF (XLU) dropped 3.5%. Vanguard REIT Index Fund ETF (VNQ) lost 3.1%. iShares Select Dividend ETF(DVY) decreased 1.3%. The benchmark SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY) ended off 0.05% while the SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF (DIA) added 0.28%.
So how can investors maximize income now yet minimize risk as rates rise? Here are recommendations from five financial advisors.
1. Take The Bucket Challenge
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Liz Miller, president of Summit Place Financial Advisors in Summit, N.J. with $120 million under management, recommends investors divide their portfolios into three buckets each carrying different risks and purposes.
There is no such thing as maximum yield at minimum risk. Even the most carefully modeled and structured absolute-return product can fail miserably, says Miller. In a low rate environment, investors need to consider carefully which investors are necessary to protect their portfolio and which investments are meant to support their lifestyle.
Her three buckets are:
1. A market bucket: Stocks and funds as well as any investment that is easily buffeted by the overall markets movements, including most higher-yielding, fixed-income choices.
2. A protection bucket: High-quality, minimal risk fixed income. These are all providing very little in yield income today, but they will properly play the role of protecting a portion of our clients portfolio.
3. An income bucket: This is only for clients that truly need income generated out of their investments. Most people living off a portfolio will withdraw a mix of income and capital appreciation for a total return approach to supporting their lifestyle.
If someone absolutely needs income, we are suggesting first to look at high-quality stocks with attractive dividend income. The dividend is taxed at a lower rate than bonds and the investor has the opportunity for appreciation. These stocks might include AT&T (T), Verizon (VZ), Exxon Mobil (XOM), Pfizer (PFE), Procter & Gamble (PG) and Walmart (WMT). All of these offer dividend income greater than high quality 10-year bonds and there may be future upside.
We also recommend selective listed bonds. These trade like stocks, but are actually very long maturity bonds. They have higher yields and the safety comes from the ability to quickly sell them if the fundamentals change or interest rates go up. Our favorites here include companies like Duke Energy (DUK) and Prudential (PRU).
2. Be Open to Closed-End Funds
Keith Lanton, president of Lantern Investments with $1 billion in client assets in Melville, N.Y. recommends closed-end funds many of which are trading a steep discount to their net asset value. (The NAV is the total assets minus the funds liabilities divided by the number of outstanding shares.) CEFs trade like stocks with a fixed number of shares when theyre created. Their share prices fluctuate based on stock market supply and demand. Unlike regular mutual funds, CEFs may issue debt or preferred shares to leverage their assets in hopes of juicing income.
Lanton recommends three CEFs that are set to terminate in 5, 10 and 15 years, respectively. Shareholders will receive the full value of fund assets on the termination date.
1. Nuveen Build America Bond Opportunity Fund (NBD) primarily invests in a diversified portfolio of Build America Bonds (BABs). NBD currently yields 6.57% and trades at a 9.34% discount to NAV. Because there has been no new issuance of BABs the funds term provision is now in force and the fund will terminate on or about Dec. 31, 2020, distributing fund assets to shareholders at that time.
2. Western Asset High Yield Defined Benefit Opportunity (HYI) is a non-leveraged, high yield closed-end fund that is scheduled to terminate on or about Sept. 30, 2025. HYI currently yields 8.88% and trades at a 10.8% discount to NAV.
3. BlackRock Municipal Target Term Trust (BTT) is a closed-end fund that is scheduled to terminate on or about Dec. 31, 2030 at which time it will distribute substantially all of its net assets. Given BTTs scheduled termination date the Trusts portfolio is structured to hold municipal bonds with maturities that fall around the 15 year part of the yield curve. BTT currently yields 4.58% and trades at a 9.2% discount to NAV. The majority of the income from this fund may be exempt from federal taxation.
3. Incorporate Long-Term, Investment-Grade Corporate Bonds
Gene Tannuzzo, portfolio manager of the $2.3 billion Columbia Strategic Income Fund (COSIX), recommends buying long-dated, investment-grade corporate bonds.
While conservative investors may hold some caution for investing in longer maturities, the long investment-grade market offers good value today, with yields near 5% for many high-quality companies, Tannuzzo says. This type of yield profile should prove to be attractive, but also provide some protection should the economy worsen as long yields could come down (and hence prices could move higher).
The largest ETFs tracking this category are iShares 10+ Year Credit Bond ETF (CLY), Long-Term Corporate Bond Index Fund (VCLT) and SPDR Barclays Capital Long Term Corporate Bond ETF (LWC). These yield 4.4% to 4.6%.
4. Opt for Alternative Investments
Sell covered calls on stock or ETF holdings, says Joe Halpern, CEO of Exceed Investments in New York City with $7 million under management. Covered calls are contracts that give buyers the right but not the obligation to buy or call away the stock from the seller at a strike price before an expiration date.
When selling options premium, there exists a high probability of success as you can reap yields if the stock price stays the same, moves against you slightly or moves in your favor, Halpern says. The wrench in this strategy, however, is when there are unforeseen moves in the market, as what occurred at the end of August, which can more than negate positive yields.
Two ETFs that do it for you are Recon Capital NASDAQ 100 Covered Call ETF (QYLD), yielding 9%, and US Equity High Volatility Put Write ETF (HVPW), yielding 10%.
5. Team Up With Master Limited Partnerships
Master limited partnerships are toll-road type businesses that collect fees for transporting, storing and processing oil and gas. Ron Weiner, president and CEO of RDM Financial Group in Westport, Conn. with more than $750 million assets under management recommends MLPs for investors with a three to five-year investment horizon.
MLPs mostly have long-term contracts. They have historically raised their dividends faster than the rate of inflation, and a majority of MLPs have modest exposure to underlying energy prices, says Weiner. MLPs are are tax-advantaged but have faced significant pressure over the past year. A selection of these companies continues to increase their dividends significantly, even as their stock prices decline. This signals that the management teams of these companies remain positive, which is a bullish sign.
The most popular MLP ETF are ALPS Alerian MLP ETF (AMLP) yielding 8.51%. But watch out for its great 5.43% expense ratio. JP Morgan Alerian MLP Index ETN (AMJ) yields 7% with a 0.85% expense ratio. Because its a debt note, investors have to depend on the issuers good faith and credit to make good on the payments.
Theres No Free Lunch
Of course as we all know, theres no free lunch when it comes to investing or the stock market. To get more yield income, investors will have to accept more risk.
Investors should know their risk appetite and the understand the risk they are taking before taking the leap, says Peter Nigro, professor, and chair of the finance department at Bryant University in Smithfield, R.I. Fixed-income instruments pose not only interest rate risk, credit risk and market risk (and currency and political risk for emerging market bond funds) but liquidity risk, which magnifies in times of stress.
Just like if youre in a relationship, you have to take the risk youll eventually break up. On the plus side, you can turn it into a massive hit song.
Ky Trang Ho is the founder of Key Financial Media LLC, which produces content and thought leadership for financial advisors and investment strategists.
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Trending Now
NOV 7, 2015 @ 10:01 AM 1,540 VIEWS
Five Ways Not To Get Killed When Rates Rise
Ky Trang Ho
CONTRIBUTOR
I cover investing strategies and trends in ETFs and mutual funds.
the futures market sees a 70% likelihood of a 0.5% interest rate increase at the mid-December meeting.
the first Fed rate hike in almost 10 years promises to be painful.
Gallery
The 10 Worst Ideas For Your Investment Portfolio
Launch Gallery
11 images
Stock market investors can bet their portfolios that the Federal Reserve will lift short-term interest rates at its December meeting thanks to the strong employment report Friday. As of Friday, the CME Group FedWatch tool shows the futures market sees a 70% likelihood of a 0.5% interest rate increase at the mid-December meeting. Thats a big spike from the 58% probability reading the day before and a massive jump from the 5% chance seen a month ago. Bill Gross PIMCOs former bond king whos now at Janus Capital told Bloomberg TV Friday theres a 100% chance of a rate hike at the December meeting.
For dividend-oriented and bond investors, the first Fed rate hike in almost 10 years promises to be painful. Given that prices fall when yields rise, a rate increase wipes out most if not all of the yield on income assets.
Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen testifies on Capitol Hill Nov. 4, 2015, before the House Financial Services Committee hearing on banking supervision and regulation. (AP Photo/Andrew Harnik)
Roberto CoinVoice
Five Actresses To Watch In 2016
Bonds, interest-rate sensitive sectors and dividend payers sold off Friday as the stock market reacted to the jobs report. iShares Barclays 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (TLT) fell 1.5%. Utilities SPDR ETF (XLU) dropped 3.5%. Vanguard REIT Index Fund ETF (VNQ) lost 3.1%. iShares Select Dividend ETF(DVY) decreased 1.3%. The benchmark SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY) ended off 0.05% while the SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF (DIA) added 0.28%.
So how can investors maximize income now yet minimize risk as rates rise? Here are recommendations from five financial advisors.
1. Take The Bucket Challenge
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Liz Miller, president of Summit Place Financial Advisors in Summit, N.J. with $120 million under management, recommends investors divide their portfolios into three buckets each carrying different risks and purposes.
There is no such thing as maximum yield at minimum risk. Even the most carefully modeled and structured absolute-return product can fail miserably, says Miller. In a low rate environment, investors need to consider carefully which investors are necessary to protect their portfolio and which investments are meant to support their lifestyle.
Her three buckets are:
1. A market bucket: Stocks and funds as well as any investment that is easily buffeted by the overall markets movements, including most higher-yielding, fixed-income choices.
2. A protection bucket: High-quality, minimal risk fixed income. These are all providing very little in yield income today, but they will properly play the role of protecting a portion of our clients portfolio.
3. An income bucket: This is only for clients that truly need income generated out of their investments. Most people living off a portfolio will withdraw a mix of income and capital appreciation for a total return approach to supporting their lifestyle.
If someone absolutely needs income, we are suggesting first to look at high-quality stocks with attractive dividend income. The dividend is taxed at a lower rate than bonds and the investor has the opportunity for appreciation. These stocks might include AT&T (T), Verizon (VZ), Exxon Mobil (XOM), Pfizer (PFE), Procter & Gamble (PG) and Walmart (WMT). All of these offer dividend income greater than high quality 10-year bonds and there may be future upside.
We also recommend selective listed bonds. These trade like stocks, but are actually very long maturity bonds. They have higher yields and the safety comes from the ability to quickly sell them if the fundamentals change or interest rates go up. Our favorites here include companies like Duke Energy (DUK) and Prudential (PRU).
2. Be Open to Closed-End Funds
Keith Lanton, president of Lantern Investments with $1 billion in client assets in Melville, N.Y. recommends closed-end funds many of which are trading a steep discount to their net asset value. (The NAV is the total assets minus the funds liabilities divided by the number of outstanding shares.) CEFs trade like stocks with a fixed number of shares when theyre created. Their share prices fluctuate based on stock market supply and demand. Unlike regular mutual funds, CEFs may issue debt or preferred shares to leverage their assets in hopes of juicing income.
Lanton recommends three CEFs that are set to terminate in 5, 10 and 15 years, respectively. Shareholders will receive the full value of fund assets on the termination date.
1. Nuveen Build America Bond Opportunity Fund (NBD) primarily invests in a diversified portfolio of Build America Bonds (BABs). NBD currently yields 6.57% and trades at a 9.34% discount to NAV. Because there has been no new issuance of BABs the funds term provision is now in force and the fund will terminate on or about Dec. 31, 2020, distributing fund assets to shareholders at that time.
2. Western Asset High Yield Defined Benefit Opportunity (HYI) is a non-leveraged, high yield closed-end fund that is scheduled to terminate on or about Sept. 30, 2025. HYI currently yields 8.88% and trades at a 10.8% discount to NAV.
3. BlackRock Municipal Target Term Trust (BTT) is a closed-end fund that is scheduled to terminate on or about Dec. 31, 2030 at which time it will distribute substantially all of its net assets. Given BTTs scheduled termination date the Trusts portfolio is structured to hold municipal bonds with maturities that fall around the 15 year part of the yield curve. BTT currently yields 4.58% and trades at a 9.2% discount to NAV. The majority of the income from this fund may be exempt from federal taxation.
3. Incorporate Long-Term, Investment-Grade Corporate Bonds
Gene Tannuzzo, portfolio manager of the $2.3 billion Columbia Strategic Income Fund (COSIX), recommends buying long-dated, investment-grade corporate bonds.
While conservative investors may hold some caution for investing in longer maturities, the long investment-grade market offers good value today, with yields near 5% for many high-quality companies, Tannuzzo says. This type of yield profile should prove to be attractive, but also provide some protection should the economy worsen as long yields could come down (and hence prices could move higher).
The largest ETFs tracking this category are iShares 10+ Year Credit Bond ETF (CLY), Long-Term Corporate Bond Index Fund (VCLT) and SPDR Barclays Capital Long Term Corporate Bond ETF (LWC). These yield 4.4% to 4.6%.
4. Opt for Alternative Investments
Sell covered calls on stock or ETF holdings, says Joe Halpern, CEO of Exceed Investments in New York City with $7 million under management. Covered calls are contracts that give buyers the right but not the obligation to buy or call away the stock from the seller at a strike price before an expiration date.
When selling options premium, there exists a high probability of success as you can reap yields if the stock price stays the same, moves against you slightly or moves in your favor, Halpern says. The wrench in this strategy, however, is when there are unforeseen moves in the market, as what occurred at the end of August, which can more than negate positive yields.
Two ETFs that do it for you are Recon Capital NASDAQ 100 Covered Call ETF (QYLD), yielding 9%, and US Equity High Volatility Put Write ETF (HVPW), yielding 10%.
5. Team Up With Master Limited Partnerships
Master limited partnerships are toll-road type businesses that collect fees for transporting, storing and processing oil and gas. Ron Weiner, president and CEO of RDM Financial Group in Westport, Conn. with more than $750 million assets under management recommends MLPs for investors with a three to five-year investment horizon.
MLPs mostly have long-term contracts. They have historically raised their dividends faster than the rate of inflation, and a majority of MLPs have modest exposure to underlying energy prices, says Weiner. MLPs are are tax-advantaged but have faced significant pressure over the past year. A selection of these companies continues to increase their dividends significantly, even as their stock prices decline. This signals that the management teams of these companies remain positive, which is a bullish sign.
The most popular MLP ETF are ALPS Alerian MLP ETF (AMLP) yielding 8.51%. But watch out for its great 5.43% expense ratio. JP Morgan Alerian MLP Index ETN (AMJ) yields 7% with a 0.85% expense ratio. Because its a debt note, investors have to depend on the issuers good faith and credit to make good on the payments.
Theres No Free Lunch
Of course as we all know, theres no free lunch when it comes to investing or the stock market. To get more yield income, investors will have to accept more risk.
Investors should know their risk appetite and the understand the risk they are taking before taking the leap, says Peter Nigro, professor, and chair of the finance department at Bryant University in Smithfield, R.I. Fixed-income instruments pose not only interest rate risk, credit risk and market risk (and currency and political risk for emerging market bond funds) but liquidity risk, which magnifies in times of stress.
Just like if youre in a relationship, you have to take the risk youll eventually break up. On the plus side, you can turn it into a massive hit song.
Ky Trang Ho is the founder of Key Financial Media LLC, which produces content and thought leadership for financial advisors and investment strategists.
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Nov 10, 2015 07:41:48 #
China's PPI Drops 44th Month, Chinese Trade Slumps on Waning Demand, Deflationary Pressures
China's PPI Drops 44th Month
China's CPI is up a modest 1.3 percent year over year but Producer Prices Fall for 44th Month.
China's consumer inflation moderated again in October, while producer prices declined for the 44th straight month, as falling commodity prices and weak demand add to deflationary pressure.
The producer price index (PPI) fell 5.9 percent in October from a year earlier, identical with the decline in September, and slightly more than economists' forecasts of a 5.8 percent drop.
China's CPI Slows Amid Deflationary Pressures
The Wall Street Journal reports Chinas Inflation Slows in October.
Chinas consumer inflation dipped further last month due to lower food prices, adding to what economists say are signs of slack demand and slowing in the worlds second-largest economy.
Chinas consumer-price index rose 1.3% in October last month from a year earlier, according to the governments statistics bureau. The pace was slower than the 1.6% year-over-year rise in September and a tick down from the median 1.4% gain forecast by 11 economists in a survey by The Wall Street Journal. Prices of goods at the factory gate fell 5.9% in October from a year earlier, matching Septembers decline.
Its quite clear, China is facing deflationary pressure, said Mizuho Securities Asia Ltd. economist Shen Jianguang. The issue is how to revive growth thats been below target, while restructuring the economy to reduce overcapacity.
Trade Slumps on Waning Demand
Chinese imports and exports hit the skids as Trade Slumps on Waning Demand
Chinas trade with the rest of the world fell sharply in October from a year earlier, with imports of raw materials particularly hard hit as slowing Chinese investment feeds through into weaker demand in the worlds biggest trader of goods.
Chinese imports fell 18.8 per cent in October from the same month a year earlier, a slight improvement from the 20.4 per cent year-on-year fall in September. Sharply lower prices of oil and other commodities also helped scythe the bill.
Exports declined 6.9 per cent in October from a year earlier, deteriorating from the 3.7 per cent fall the previous month as weak global demand and higher Chinese costs led to slumping shipments of the cheap Chinese goods that have flowed to the world in the last decade.
At the start of the year, the ruling Communist party set a target of 6 per cent growth in trade for this year but total trade has now fallen by just over 8 per cent in the first ten months of 2015 compared with the same period a year earlier.
In the first 10 months of the year, Chinese exports to the US were up 5.2 per cent from the same period in 2014, while exports to countries in Asean were up 3.7 per cent, according to Chinese customs figures.
Exports to the EU, Japan and Hong Kong which serves as a transit point for exports to many other parts of the world fell by 4.1 per cent, 9.5 per cent and 12.2 per cent respectively.
No Decoupling
I have stated this several times before but it's worth noting again: The widely believed notion that China would decouple from the global markets in 2007 and 2008 was as silly then as the notion the US can do the same today.
China's PPI Drops 44th Month
China's CPI is up a modest 1.3 percent year over year but Producer Prices Fall for 44th Month.
China's consumer inflation moderated again in October, while producer prices declined for the 44th straight month, as falling commodity prices and weak demand add to deflationary pressure.
The producer price index (PPI) fell 5.9 percent in October from a year earlier, identical with the decline in September, and slightly more than economists' forecasts of a 5.8 percent drop.
China's CPI Slows Amid Deflationary Pressures
The Wall Street Journal reports Chinas Inflation Slows in October.
Chinas consumer inflation dipped further last month due to lower food prices, adding to what economists say are signs of slack demand and slowing in the worlds second-largest economy.
Chinas consumer-price index rose 1.3% in October last month from a year earlier, according to the governments statistics bureau. The pace was slower than the 1.6% year-over-year rise in September and a tick down from the median 1.4% gain forecast by 11 economists in a survey by The Wall Street Journal. Prices of goods at the factory gate fell 5.9% in October from a year earlier, matching Septembers decline.
Its quite clear, China is facing deflationary pressure, said Mizuho Securities Asia Ltd. economist Shen Jianguang. The issue is how to revive growth thats been below target, while restructuring the economy to reduce overcapacity.
Trade Slumps on Waning Demand
Chinese imports and exports hit the skids as Trade Slumps on Waning Demand
Chinas trade with the rest of the world fell sharply in October from a year earlier, with imports of raw materials particularly hard hit as slowing Chinese investment feeds through into weaker demand in the worlds biggest trader of goods.
Chinese imports fell 18.8 per cent in October from the same month a year earlier, a slight improvement from the 20.4 per cent year-on-year fall in September. Sharply lower prices of oil and other commodities also helped scythe the bill.
Exports declined 6.9 per cent in October from a year earlier, deteriorating from the 3.7 per cent fall the previous month as weak global demand and higher Chinese costs led to slumping shipments of the cheap Chinese goods that have flowed to the world in the last decade.
At the start of the year, the ruling Communist party set a target of 6 per cent growth in trade for this year but total trade has now fallen by just over 8 per cent in the first ten months of 2015 compared with the same period a year earlier.
In the first 10 months of the year, Chinese exports to the US were up 5.2 per cent from the same period in 2014, while exports to countries in Asean were up 3.7 per cent, according to Chinese customs figures.
Exports to the EU, Japan and Hong Kong which serves as a transit point for exports to many other parts of the world fell by 4.1 per cent, 9.5 per cent and 12.2 per cent respectively.
No Decoupling
I have stated this several times before but it's worth noting again: The widely believed notion that China would decouple from the global markets in 2007 and 2008 was as silly then as the notion the US can do the same today.
Nov 10, 2015 07:50:07 #
China's PPI Drops 44th Month, Chinese Trade Slumps on Waning Demand, Deflationary Pressures
China's PPI Drops 44th Month
China's CPI is up a modest 1.3 percent year over year but Producer Prices Fall for 44th Month.
China's consumer inflation moderated again in October, while producer prices declined for the 44th straight month, as falling commodity prices and weak demand add to deflationary pressure.
The producer price index (PPI) fell 5.9 percent in October from a year earlier, identical with the decline in September, and slightly more than economists' forecasts of a 5.8 percent drop.
China's CPI Slows Amid Deflationary Pressures
The Wall Street Journal reports Chinas Inflation Slows in October.
Chinas consumer inflation dipped further last month due to lower food prices, adding to what economists say are signs of slack demand and slowing in the worlds second-largest economy.
Chinas consumer-price index rose 1.3% in October last month from a year earlier, according to the governments statistics bureau. The pace was slower than the 1.6% year-over-year rise in September and a tick down from the median 1.4% gain forecast by 11 economists in a survey by The Wall Street Journal. Prices of goods at the factory gate fell 5.9% in October from a year earlier, matching Septembers decline.
Its quite clear, China is facing deflationary pressure, said Mizuho Securities Asia Ltd. economist Shen Jianguang. The issue is how to revive growth thats been below target, while restructuring the economy to reduce overcapacity.
Trade Slumps on Waning Demand
Chinese imports and exports hit the skids as Trade Slumps on Waning Demand
Chinas trade with the rest of the world fell sharply in October from a year earlier, with imports of raw materials particularly hard hit as slowing Chinese investment feeds through into weaker demand in the worlds biggest trader of goods.
Chinese imports fell 18.8 per cent in October from the same month a year earlier, a slight improvement from the 20.4 per cent year-on-year fall in September. Sharply lower prices of oil and other commodities also helped scythe the bill.
Exports declined 6.9 per cent in October from a year earlier, deteriorating from the 3.7 per cent fall the previous month as weak global demand and higher Chinese costs led to slumping shipments of the cheap Chinese goods that have flowed to the world in the last decade.
At the start of the year, the ruling Communist party set a target of 6 per cent growth in trade for this year but total trade has now fallen by just over 8 per cent in the first ten months of 2015 compared with the same period a year earlier.
In the first 10 months of the year, Chinese exports to the US were up 5.2 per cent from the same period in 2014, while exports to countries in Asean were up 3.7 per cent, according to Chinese customs figures.
Exports to the EU, Japan and Hong Kong which serves as a transit point for exports to many other parts of the world fell by 4.1 per cent, 9.5 per cent and 12.2 per cent respectively.
No Decoupling
I have stated this several times before but it's worth noting again: The widely believed notion that China would decouple from the global markets in 2007 and 2008 was as silly then as the notion the US can do the same today.
China's PPI Drops 44th Month
China's CPI is up a modest 1.3 percent year over year but Producer Prices Fall for 44th Month.
China's consumer inflation moderated again in October, while producer prices declined for the 44th straight month, as falling commodity prices and weak demand add to deflationary pressure.
The producer price index (PPI) fell 5.9 percent in October from a year earlier, identical with the decline in September, and slightly more than economists' forecasts of a 5.8 percent drop.
China's CPI Slows Amid Deflationary Pressures
The Wall Street Journal reports Chinas Inflation Slows in October.
Chinas consumer inflation dipped further last month due to lower food prices, adding to what economists say are signs of slack demand and slowing in the worlds second-largest economy.
Chinas consumer-price index rose 1.3% in October last month from a year earlier, according to the governments statistics bureau. The pace was slower than the 1.6% year-over-year rise in September and a tick down from the median 1.4% gain forecast by 11 economists in a survey by The Wall Street Journal. Prices of goods at the factory gate fell 5.9% in October from a year earlier, matching Septembers decline.
Its quite clear, China is facing deflationary pressure, said Mizuho Securities Asia Ltd. economist Shen Jianguang. The issue is how to revive growth thats been below target, while restructuring the economy to reduce overcapacity.
Trade Slumps on Waning Demand
Chinese imports and exports hit the skids as Trade Slumps on Waning Demand
Chinas trade with the rest of the world fell sharply in October from a year earlier, with imports of raw materials particularly hard hit as slowing Chinese investment feeds through into weaker demand in the worlds biggest trader of goods.
Chinese imports fell 18.8 per cent in October from the same month a year earlier, a slight improvement from the 20.4 per cent year-on-year fall in September. Sharply lower prices of oil and other commodities also helped scythe the bill.
Exports declined 6.9 per cent in October from a year earlier, deteriorating from the 3.7 per cent fall the previous month as weak global demand and higher Chinese costs led to slumping shipments of the cheap Chinese goods that have flowed to the world in the last decade.
At the start of the year, the ruling Communist party set a target of 6 per cent growth in trade for this year but total trade has now fallen by just over 8 per cent in the first ten months of 2015 compared with the same period a year earlier.
In the first 10 months of the year, Chinese exports to the US were up 5.2 per cent from the same period in 2014, while exports to countries in Asean were up 3.7 per cent, according to Chinese customs figures.
Exports to the EU, Japan and Hong Kong which serves as a transit point for exports to many other parts of the world fell by 4.1 per cent, 9.5 per cent and 12.2 per cent respectively.
No Decoupling
I have stated this several times before but it's worth noting again: The widely believed notion that China would decouple from the global markets in 2007 and 2008 was as silly then as the notion the US can do the same today.
Nov 11, 2015 18:57:31 #
AL.com
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AlabamaChange Region
8-year-old charged with murder in beating death of Birmingham toddler
1 / 15
Carol Robinson | crobinson@al.com By Carol Robinson | crobinson@al.com
Email the author | Follow on Twitter
on November 10, 2015 at 1:14 PM, updated November 11, 2015 at 6:17 AM
Comments
Katerra Lewis.jpg
Katerra Lewis is charged with manslaughter in the October 2015 death of her toddler girl. Police say she was at nightclub when 1-year-old Kelci Lewis was fatally beaten by an 8-year-old family friend.
Carol Robinson | crobinson@al.com
An 8-year-old Birmingham boy is charged with murder in the beating death of a toddler girl left in his care, the youngest person in recent memory charged with murder in Jefferson County.
The girl's mother is charged with manslaughter after police say she left her young daughter in the care of a group of children while she partied at a nightclub.
"This is one of the most heartbreaking investigations that I have seen in over 30 years of my law enforcement career,'' said Birmingham police Chief A.C. Roper.
"There are just too many deep rooted issues in this horrific crime. It's extremely troubling from so many different angles and there are no law enforcement answers to prevent it,'' Roper said. "We've been concerned about the kids and the future effect on their lives. The bottom line is an innocent young baby lost her life and that should be a wake-up call for our community."
Kelci Devine Lewis, who turned 1 in May, was found unresponsive in her crib at 10:45 a.m. Oct. 12. Police were called to the home on Second Avenue South, and Kelci was taken to Children's of Alabama where she was pronounced dead at 11:07 a.m.
Authorities have said there were visible injuries to the girl. She died from blunt force trauma to the head, and internal injuries, Birmingham police spokesman Lt. Sean Edwards has said.
Family members said 26-year-old Katerra Lewis and Kelci, her only child, didn't live at the home where Kelci was killed. Grandmother Waynetta Callens said in an earlier interview that they were staying there temporarily with friends while Katerra Lewis waited for Section 8 housing of her own.
Edwards said Kelci was left alone that night in the home with five other children, ages 2, 4, 6, 7 and 8. Katerra Lewis, he said, had gone to a nightclub with a friend who was the person she was staying with.
"It is believed that while the mother and friend were at the club, the 8-year-old viciously attacked the 1-year-old because the 1-year-old would not stop crying,'' Edwards said. "The 1-year-old suffered from severe head trauma as well as major internal organ damage which ultimately led to her death."
Police believe the 8-year-old put the injured Kelci back in her crib, where she remained until her mother found her the following day. Katerra Lewis and the other adult were reportedly gone from 11:30 p.m. until 2 a.m. Edwards said the 6-year-old in the house was interviewed at Prescott House and was able to tell authorities what happened. Those statements matched up with Kelci's injuries.
Kelci Lewis House.jpg
Kelci Lewis, 1, was found unresponsive last month in her crib in the home of a family friend on Second Avenue South.
Carol Robinson | crobinson@al.com
Police have not and will not release the name of the 8-year-old boy. He is in the custody of the Department of Human Resources.
All of the children in the home that night were removed, and have not been returned to their mothers.
Katerra Lewis is charged with manslaughter. She turned herself in to the Jefferson County Jail Monday at 3:42 p.m. and was released at 5:02 p.m. after posting $15,000 bond.
Katerra Lewis attended a vigil held Oct. 20 at Avondale Park but was too distraught to speak to the group. They lit candles and released white balloons in Kelci's memory.
The day after the vigil, Katerra Lewis posted on her Facebook that she was suffering following the loss of her child. "I keep asking can dey bring u back and take me instead."
DHR spokesman Barry Spear said the agency had no prior involvement with Katerra Lewis or Kelci. Privacy laws, he said, prevent him from commenting about the 8-year-old suspect.
Callens told AL.com today that she disputes what police are saying happened. She insists that there was another adult in the home with the children. "Katerra is not the type of parent that they are trying to portray her as,'' Callens said. "We all will have our day in court. Never judge a book by its cover, which means don't try to judge from the outside."
"People are already talking, I know they are,'' she said. "If you don't know the real story, keep your mouth closed because you don't know what happened."
Callens said the ordeal has been tough. "We're holding on the best we can,'' she said. "We just keep praying because it's all in God's hands. We know the truth, and we got nothing to hide."
Prayer vigil for 1-year-old Kelci Lewis
Prayer vigil for 1-year-old Kelci Lewis held in Birmingham on Tuesday, October 20, 2015.
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4SearchSearchAccountSign In
AlabamaChange Region
8-year-old charged with murder in beating death of Birmingham toddler
1 / 15
Carol Robinson | crobinson@al.com By Carol Robinson | crobinson@al.com
Email the author | Follow on Twitter
on November 10, 2015 at 1:14 PM, updated November 11, 2015 at 6:17 AM
Comments
Katerra Lewis.jpg
Katerra Lewis is charged with manslaughter in the October 2015 death of her toddler girl. Police say she was at nightclub when 1-year-old Kelci Lewis was fatally beaten by an 8-year-old family friend.
Carol Robinson | crobinson@al.com
An 8-year-old Birmingham boy is charged with murder in the beating death of a toddler girl left in his care, the youngest person in recent memory charged with murder in Jefferson County.
The girl's mother is charged with manslaughter after police say she left her young daughter in the care of a group of children while she partied at a nightclub.
"This is one of the most heartbreaking investigations that I have seen in over 30 years of my law enforcement career,'' said Birmingham police Chief A.C. Roper.
"There are just too many deep rooted issues in this horrific crime. It's extremely troubling from so many different angles and there are no law enforcement answers to prevent it,'' Roper said. "We've been concerned about the kids and the future effect on their lives. The bottom line is an innocent young baby lost her life and that should be a wake-up call for our community."
Kelci Devine Lewis, who turned 1 in May, was found unresponsive in her crib at 10:45 a.m. Oct. 12. Police were called to the home on Second Avenue South, and Kelci was taken to Children's of Alabama where she was pronounced dead at 11:07 a.m.
Authorities have said there were visible injuries to the girl. She died from blunt force trauma to the head, and internal injuries, Birmingham police spokesman Lt. Sean Edwards has said.
Family members said 26-year-old Katerra Lewis and Kelci, her only child, didn't live at the home where Kelci was killed. Grandmother Waynetta Callens said in an earlier interview that they were staying there temporarily with friends while Katerra Lewis waited for Section 8 housing of her own.
Edwards said Kelci was left alone that night in the home with five other children, ages 2, 4, 6, 7 and 8. Katerra Lewis, he said, had gone to a nightclub with a friend who was the person she was staying with.
"It is believed that while the mother and friend were at the club, the 8-year-old viciously attacked the 1-year-old because the 1-year-old would not stop crying,'' Edwards said. "The 1-year-old suffered from severe head trauma as well as major internal organ damage which ultimately led to her death."
Police believe the 8-year-old put the injured Kelci back in her crib, where she remained until her mother found her the following day. Katerra Lewis and the other adult were reportedly gone from 11:30 p.m. until 2 a.m. Edwards said the 6-year-old in the house was interviewed at Prescott House and was able to tell authorities what happened. Those statements matched up with Kelci's injuries.
Kelci Lewis House.jpg
Kelci Lewis, 1, was found unresponsive last month in her crib in the home of a family friend on Second Avenue South.
Carol Robinson | crobinson@al.com
Police have not and will not release the name of the 8-year-old boy. He is in the custody of the Department of Human Resources.
All of the children in the home that night were removed, and have not been returned to their mothers.
Katerra Lewis is charged with manslaughter. She turned herself in to the Jefferson County Jail Monday at 3:42 p.m. and was released at 5:02 p.m. after posting $15,000 bond.
Katerra Lewis attended a vigil held Oct. 20 at Avondale Park but was too distraught to speak to the group. They lit candles and released white balloons in Kelci's memory.
The day after the vigil, Katerra Lewis posted on her Facebook that she was suffering following the loss of her child. "I keep asking can dey bring u back and take me instead."
DHR spokesman Barry Spear said the agency had no prior involvement with Katerra Lewis or Kelci. Privacy laws, he said, prevent him from commenting about the 8-year-old suspect.
Callens told AL.com today that she disputes what police are saying happened. She insists that there was another adult in the home with the children. "Katerra is not the type of parent that they are trying to portray her as,'' Callens said. "We all will have our day in court. Never judge a book by its cover, which means don't try to judge from the outside."
"People are already talking, I know they are,'' she said. "If you don't know the real story, keep your mouth closed because you don't know what happened."
Callens said the ordeal has been tough. "We're holding on the best we can,'' she said. "We just keep praying because it's all in God's hands. We know the truth, and we got nothing to hide."
Prayer vigil for 1-year-old Kelci Lewis
Prayer vigil for 1-year-old Kelci Lewis held in Birmingham on Tuesday, October 20, 2015.
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Nov 12, 2015 11:09:12 #
47 million Americans live in poverty right now
Posted by EU Times on Nov 12th, 2015 // 0 Comments
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The middle class in America has been disappearing because of the rapid increase in the cost of living in the United States.
Indeed, the cost of living in the United States (food, rent, medical insurance and so on) has been growing rapidly. On the federal level, the poverty threshold for a family of five makes up $28,410, although 51% of all American workers make less than $ 30,000 a year at the moment.
In the US, the number of employed, yet poor individuals has been growing rapidly. The rising cost of health insurance is one of the most unpleasant things that Americans have to face in their every day lives. Barack Obama promised that his program would reduce health insurance by $ 2,500 for a family, but the cost of premiums has grown by $4,865 since 2008.
Food prices have become 3.9 percent more expensive, thus marking the biggest rise since July 2012. According to the US Census Bureau, nearly 47 million Americans live in poverty right now. In 2007, approximately one out of every eight children in the US was receiving food stamps. Today, the index has grown to one of every five.
Experts point out that there are 1.5 million households in the United States that live on less than two dollars a day. This number has doubled since 1996. Forty-six million Americans use food banks each year.
The number of homeless children in the United States has increased by 60 percent in the last six years. Approximately 1.6 million American children slept in a homeless shelter, or in a similar facility, at least once last year.
Posted by EU Times on Nov 12th, 2015 // 0 Comments
Share on emailShare on printfriendly
The middle class in America has been disappearing because of the rapid increase in the cost of living in the United States.
Indeed, the cost of living in the United States (food, rent, medical insurance and so on) has been growing rapidly. On the federal level, the poverty threshold for a family of five makes up $28,410, although 51% of all American workers make less than $ 30,000 a year at the moment.
In the US, the number of employed, yet poor individuals has been growing rapidly. The rising cost of health insurance is one of the most unpleasant things that Americans have to face in their every day lives. Barack Obama promised that his program would reduce health insurance by $ 2,500 for a family, but the cost of premiums has grown by $4,865 since 2008.
Food prices have become 3.9 percent more expensive, thus marking the biggest rise since July 2012. According to the US Census Bureau, nearly 47 million Americans live in poverty right now. In 2007, approximately one out of every eight children in the US was receiving food stamps. Today, the index has grown to one of every five.
Experts point out that there are 1.5 million households in the United States that live on less than two dollars a day. This number has doubled since 1996. Forty-six million Americans use food banks each year.
The number of homeless children in the United States has increased by 60 percent in the last six years. Approximately 1.6 million American children slept in a homeless shelter, or in a similar facility, at least once last year.
Nov 13, 2015 08:56:00 #
Feel good to be in the USA top 1% without DEBT!
USA has 150% debt to Income GDP Ratio like Japan! Fucked up!
USA has 150% debt to Income GDP Ratio like Japan! Fucked up!
38.4% of America's Assets owned by top 1%
When to sell & buy Property in California!
When to sell & buy Property in California!
When to sell & buy Property in California!
When to sell & buy Property in California!
When to sell & buy Property in California!
When to sell & buy Property in California!
Nov 13, 2015 10:06:50 #
THE BITTER, CRUSHING POVERTY OF APPALACHIA IS A PREVIEW OF WHAT IS COMING TO THE REST OF THE COUNTRY
Appalachia has lost millions of good paying jobs over the past several decades
Michael Snyder | Economic Collapse - NOVEMBER 13, 2015 66 Comments
The Bitter, Crushing Poverty Of Appalachia Is A Preview Of What Is Coming To The Rest Of The Country
332010
What do you say to people that have completely lost all hope that things will ever get any better?
The mountains of Appalachia stretch all the way from southern New York to northern Mississippi, and nestled within those mountains are dozens upon dozens of little towns that are so impoverished that they look like they have been through a war. Thanks to Barack Obamas relentless assault on the coal industry and the ongoing collapse of our industrial infrastructure, Appalachia has lost millions of good paying jobs over the past several decades. Today, more than 40 percent of the population is living in poverty in some areas of eastern Kentucky, and addiction to hillbilly heroin (Oxycontin) is absolutely out of control throughout the region. Yes, poverty is on the rise all over America, but it has especially been cruel to those that make the mountains of Appalachia their home.
An article that was published in the Guardian on Thursday profiled the deeply impoverished town of Beattyville in eastern Kentucky. Life is very hard in Beattyville today, and it seems to be getting harder all the time
The towns poverty rate is 44% above the national average. Half of its families live below the poverty line. That includes three-quarters of those with children, with the attendant consequences. More than one-third of teenagers drop out of high school or leave without graduating. Just 5% of residents have college degrees.
Surrounding communities are little better. Beattyville is the capital of Lee County, named after the commander of the Confederate army of Northern Virginia in the civil war, General Robert E Lee.
Five of the 10 poorest counties in the US run in a line through eastern Kentucky and they include Lee County. Life expectancy in the county is among the worst in the US, which is not unconnected to the fact that more than half the population is obese. Men lived an average of just 68.3 years in 2013, a little more than eight years short of the national average. Women lived 76.4 years on average, about five years short of national life expectancy.
Because life can be so bitter in little towns like Beattyville, many have chosen to turn to alcohol and drugs in an attempt to escape reality. The following description of what life is like in the region today comes from Kevin D. Williamson
Thinking about the future here and its bleak prospects is not much fun at all, so instead of too much black-minded introspection you have the pills and the dope, the morning beers, the endless scratch-off lotto cards, healing meetings up on the hill, the federally funded ritual of trading cases of food-stamp Pepsi for packs of Kentuckys Best cigarettes and good old hard currency, tall piles of gas-station nachos, the occasional blast of meth, Narcotics Anonymous meetings, petty crime, the draw, the recreational making and surgical unmaking of teenaged mothers, and death: Life expectancies are short the typical man here dies well over a decade earlier than does a man in Fairfax County, Va. and they are getting shorter, womens life expectancy having declined by nearly 1.1 percent from 1987 to 2007.
Many of you that are reading this article know exactly what Williamson is talking about, because you are living in one of those communities. It can be absolutely soul crushing to look into the hollow eyes of those that have long since given up on life day after day. There are some communities in America where you can feel the bitterness the moment that you drive into them. It is almost as if all of the life has been sucked out of the entire town. If you have ever experienced this, you know what I mean.
If there is hope, most people can endure just about anything. But when there is no hope, that is when deep depression sets in. And for many of those living in Appalachia, hope has long since departed. Just consider the words of long-time Beattyville resident Ed Courier
Its bad. I dont think rural America has a future, said Courier. The advantage rural areas had in the past of cheap labour is gone. We used to have a lot of little factories in this area but theyve gone to Mexico or China. In rural areas housing is cheap but everything else costs more. Utility rates are higher. Food and transport are higher. Management doesnt want to live in rural areas. Education is horrible here. This is a third-world county. My kids grew up here until they were eight or nine, then they went to school in Louisville [a 145-mile drive away]. I wouldnt send them to school here.
Sadly, what has already happened in Appalachia is slowly happening to the rest of the country as well. There is a chronic lack of good jobs, poverty is exploding, and more Americans than ever are giving into depression.
As economic conditions continue to deteriorate, people are starting to become more desperate. In many large cities, crime rates are already up by double digit percentages in 2015, and the thin veneer of civilization that we all take for granted is beginning to disappear. For example, down in Tampa it is being reported that there is an epidemic of house squatting going on right now
Crooks find empty houses all over Tampa Bay and make themselves at home. And now, 8 On Your Side uncovered training manuals on the internet. They teach how to get away with squatting.
The handbooks are brazen. A pamphlet for sale on Amazon for $61.20. An entry on Wiki-How entices tells squatters how to take a whole house from someone if youre willing to take the risk.
It points out the best areas to squat and even advises to spruce up the home to throw off suspicious neighbors.
And a tragic incident that just happened in Indianapolis really touched my heart. The following comes from ABC News
A family in Indianapolis was torn apart when Amanda Blackburn, 28, died after being shot in the head by a mystery gunman.
Her husband, Pastor Davey Blackburn, returned to their home from the gym Tuesday and found his home broken into and his wife on the ground, officials said.
She died Wednesday, 12 weeks pregnant.
The couple, who have a child, appeared to be madly in love, posting YouTube videos on the way to a romantic getaway inChicago and Amanda even offering marriage advice: You can lead your wife best, by just being a really, really good Godly example to her.
Please pray for Pastor Davey.
I cant even imagine the pain that he must be going through right now.
Meanwhile, there are more signs that this new economic downturn that we are experiencing is about to get even worse
-Four large U.S. energy companies with combined debt of 4.8 billion dollarshave been warned that they are all on the verge of totally collapsing and falling into bankruptcy.
-Unfortunately for all energy companies, the price of oil is not likely to go up significantly any time soon. The amount of oil being stored offshore has approximately doubled from earlier this year, and more supertankers full of unsold oil are joining the party almost every day
While the crude oil tanker backlog in Houston reaches an almost unprecedented 39 (with combined capacity of 28.4 million barrels), as The FT reports that from China to the Gulf of Mexico, the growing flotilla of stationary supertankers is evidence that the oil price crash may still have further to run, as more than 100m barrels of crude oil and heavy fuels are being held on ships at sea (as the year-long supply glut fills up available storage on land).
-The amount of goods being shipped by rail, freight and air inside the United States continues to decline. For the month of October, the Cass Shipping Index was down 5.3 percent on a year over year basis.
-And it also looks like a new housing crisis is beginning to emerge. From September to October, the number of newly initiated foreclosures in the United States rose by 12 percent.
-Of course the elite understand what is happening, and they are working hard to get prepared. According to Bloomberg, global central banks are buying up gold at a near-record pace
Central banks and other institutions boosted gold purchases to the second-highest level on record in the quarter to September as countries including China and Russia sought to diversify their foreign-exchange reserves.
Net purchases were 175 metric tons, nearing the record 179.5 tons in the same quarter a year earlier, and up from 127.9 tons in the preceding three-month period, the World Gold Council said in a report on Thursday. Still, over the first nine months central banks net purchases dropped 6.7 percent to 425.8 tons, according to the council.
When you add these items to the list that I shared with you yesterday, a very disturbing picture begins to develop.
We are clearly heading into an extremely difficult economic period, and that means that the suffering in Appalachia and elsewhere in America is about to get even worse.
Appalachia has lost millions of good paying jobs over the past several decades
Michael Snyder | Economic Collapse - NOVEMBER 13, 2015 66 Comments
The Bitter, Crushing Poverty Of Appalachia Is A Preview Of What Is Coming To The Rest Of The Country
332010
What do you say to people that have completely lost all hope that things will ever get any better?
The mountains of Appalachia stretch all the way from southern New York to northern Mississippi, and nestled within those mountains are dozens upon dozens of little towns that are so impoverished that they look like they have been through a war. Thanks to Barack Obamas relentless assault on the coal industry and the ongoing collapse of our industrial infrastructure, Appalachia has lost millions of good paying jobs over the past several decades. Today, more than 40 percent of the population is living in poverty in some areas of eastern Kentucky, and addiction to hillbilly heroin (Oxycontin) is absolutely out of control throughout the region. Yes, poverty is on the rise all over America, but it has especially been cruel to those that make the mountains of Appalachia their home.
An article that was published in the Guardian on Thursday profiled the deeply impoverished town of Beattyville in eastern Kentucky. Life is very hard in Beattyville today, and it seems to be getting harder all the time
The towns poverty rate is 44% above the national average. Half of its families live below the poverty line. That includes three-quarters of those with children, with the attendant consequences. More than one-third of teenagers drop out of high school or leave without graduating. Just 5% of residents have college degrees.
Surrounding communities are little better. Beattyville is the capital of Lee County, named after the commander of the Confederate army of Northern Virginia in the civil war, General Robert E Lee.
Five of the 10 poorest counties in the US run in a line through eastern Kentucky and they include Lee County. Life expectancy in the county is among the worst in the US, which is not unconnected to the fact that more than half the population is obese. Men lived an average of just 68.3 years in 2013, a little more than eight years short of the national average. Women lived 76.4 years on average, about five years short of national life expectancy.
Because life can be so bitter in little towns like Beattyville, many have chosen to turn to alcohol and drugs in an attempt to escape reality. The following description of what life is like in the region today comes from Kevin D. Williamson
Thinking about the future here and its bleak prospects is not much fun at all, so instead of too much black-minded introspection you have the pills and the dope, the morning beers, the endless scratch-off lotto cards, healing meetings up on the hill, the federally funded ritual of trading cases of food-stamp Pepsi for packs of Kentuckys Best cigarettes and good old hard currency, tall piles of gas-station nachos, the occasional blast of meth, Narcotics Anonymous meetings, petty crime, the draw, the recreational making and surgical unmaking of teenaged mothers, and death: Life expectancies are short the typical man here dies well over a decade earlier than does a man in Fairfax County, Va. and they are getting shorter, womens life expectancy having declined by nearly 1.1 percent from 1987 to 2007.
Many of you that are reading this article know exactly what Williamson is talking about, because you are living in one of those communities. It can be absolutely soul crushing to look into the hollow eyes of those that have long since given up on life day after day. There are some communities in America where you can feel the bitterness the moment that you drive into them. It is almost as if all of the life has been sucked out of the entire town. If you have ever experienced this, you know what I mean.
If there is hope, most people can endure just about anything. But when there is no hope, that is when deep depression sets in. And for many of those living in Appalachia, hope has long since departed. Just consider the words of long-time Beattyville resident Ed Courier
Its bad. I dont think rural America has a future, said Courier. The advantage rural areas had in the past of cheap labour is gone. We used to have a lot of little factories in this area but theyve gone to Mexico or China. In rural areas housing is cheap but everything else costs more. Utility rates are higher. Food and transport are higher. Management doesnt want to live in rural areas. Education is horrible here. This is a third-world county. My kids grew up here until they were eight or nine, then they went to school in Louisville [a 145-mile drive away]. I wouldnt send them to school here.
Sadly, what has already happened in Appalachia is slowly happening to the rest of the country as well. There is a chronic lack of good jobs, poverty is exploding, and more Americans than ever are giving into depression.
As economic conditions continue to deteriorate, people are starting to become more desperate. In many large cities, crime rates are already up by double digit percentages in 2015, and the thin veneer of civilization that we all take for granted is beginning to disappear. For example, down in Tampa it is being reported that there is an epidemic of house squatting going on right now
Crooks find empty houses all over Tampa Bay and make themselves at home. And now, 8 On Your Side uncovered training manuals on the internet. They teach how to get away with squatting.
The handbooks are brazen. A pamphlet for sale on Amazon for $61.20. An entry on Wiki-How entices tells squatters how to take a whole house from someone if youre willing to take the risk.
It points out the best areas to squat and even advises to spruce up the home to throw off suspicious neighbors.
And a tragic incident that just happened in Indianapolis really touched my heart. The following comes from ABC News
A family in Indianapolis was torn apart when Amanda Blackburn, 28, died after being shot in the head by a mystery gunman.
Her husband, Pastor Davey Blackburn, returned to their home from the gym Tuesday and found his home broken into and his wife on the ground, officials said.
She died Wednesday, 12 weeks pregnant.
The couple, who have a child, appeared to be madly in love, posting YouTube videos on the way to a romantic getaway inChicago and Amanda even offering marriage advice: You can lead your wife best, by just being a really, really good Godly example to her.
Please pray for Pastor Davey.
I cant even imagine the pain that he must be going through right now.
Meanwhile, there are more signs that this new economic downturn that we are experiencing is about to get even worse
-Four large U.S. energy companies with combined debt of 4.8 billion dollarshave been warned that they are all on the verge of totally collapsing and falling into bankruptcy.
-Unfortunately for all energy companies, the price of oil is not likely to go up significantly any time soon. The amount of oil being stored offshore has approximately doubled from earlier this year, and more supertankers full of unsold oil are joining the party almost every day
While the crude oil tanker backlog in Houston reaches an almost unprecedented 39 (with combined capacity of 28.4 million barrels), as The FT reports that from China to the Gulf of Mexico, the growing flotilla of stationary supertankers is evidence that the oil price crash may still have further to run, as more than 100m barrels of crude oil and heavy fuels are being held on ships at sea (as the year-long supply glut fills up available storage on land).
-The amount of goods being shipped by rail, freight and air inside the United States continues to decline. For the month of October, the Cass Shipping Index was down 5.3 percent on a year over year basis.
-And it also looks like a new housing crisis is beginning to emerge. From September to October, the number of newly initiated foreclosures in the United States rose by 12 percent.
-Of course the elite understand what is happening, and they are working hard to get prepared. According to Bloomberg, global central banks are buying up gold at a near-record pace
Central banks and other institutions boosted gold purchases to the second-highest level on record in the quarter to September as countries including China and Russia sought to diversify their foreign-exchange reserves.
Net purchases were 175 metric tons, nearing the record 179.5 tons in the same quarter a year earlier, and up from 127.9 tons in the preceding three-month period, the World Gold Council said in a report on Thursday. Still, over the first nine months central banks net purchases dropped 6.7 percent to 425.8 tons, according to the council.
When you add these items to the list that I shared with you yesterday, a very disturbing picture begins to develop.
We are clearly heading into an extremely difficult economic period, and that means that the suffering in Appalachia and elsewhere in America is about to get even worse.
Nov 13, 2015 19:48:00 #
Land May Be Your Best InvestmentPosted in Commercial Real Estate, Conference & Expo, Economics, Environment, NAR Events, by Graham Wood on November 13, 2015
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Morguefile.com
Morguefile.com
Have you ever thought about investing in real estate to supplement your income? You might immediately think of flipping houses or leasing rental homes, but theres another option that could be just as fruitful, if not more so: investing in land. With the economy on the upward trajectory, land is rising in demand. At the 2015 REALTORS® Conference & Expo in San Diego, Jeramy Stephens of Mossy Oak Properties in Stuttgart, Ark., offered the most profitable options for land investment.
Ranch land
These properties are in high demand right now, both by individual or family farmers and corporate agricultural enterprises. A big reason is because of the increase in cattle prices. As the economy improves, so does demand for meat-related products, Stephens noted. (People tend to spend more money on fine-dining experiences at steakhouses, for example.) You could yield significant cash flow by leasing properties ideal for cattle raising and herding.
The catch: Consider carefully whether you want to lease or sell to individuals or companies. An individual rancher, Stephens said, will have more of a personal interest in the property and may be more inclined to make the upkeep of the land a priority.
Timberland Investments
Forests and large wooded areas could bring in huge bucks, particularly as housing development ramps back up. When building materials are in demand, lumber companies will pay a premium for a steady supply of wood. And trees will always grow back, so you can expect long-term yields. Trees grow year in and year out you dont even have to do anything, Stephens said. Theyll grow through recessions, wars, and stock market crashes.
The catch: Dont expect annual cash flow from timberland investments. You only get paid once the timberland has been harvested. Youll get a rather large lump sum at that point, but it wont happen again until the next harvest which could be years.
Hay and Grazing Production
During times of extreme drought, which California and Texas are currently dealing with, farmers rely on outside production of hay and grass to feed their livestock. Considering the years-long drought pattern in some parts of the country where farming is big business, nows a good time to invest in land where you can produce these goods.
The catch: The success of this type of investment is somewhat at the mercy of weather patters. If the drought finally ends in California and Texas, for example, you may lose a lot of customers who can suddenly become self-reliant for hay and grass production.
Commercial/Residential Development Land
Pay attention to which directions retail and residential development is spreading in your area. Then invest in undeveloped land in the outlying areas. Chances are developers will be eyeing those areas next, and you can lease or sell the land to them for big profits. You could also own a piece of the development (you dont have to be a large company to do this, Stephens said), or you could subdivide the land for multiple developments and make an even bigger profit.
The catch: This type of land purchase is based on speculation about where developers will go in the future, so you wont see an immediate return on your investment. This is definitely a long-term option. Additionally, developers will want the land to be utility ready, with electricity, water lines, and sewers in place. That upfront work will be up to you to complete.
Mineral Production Land
In areas where oil and gas companies are seeking land for drilling, you could make a killing by leasing property to them for oil production. But mineral rights dont always belong 100 percent to the owner of the land. Do your due diligence before buying to see if any other entities own the mineral rights to the parcel youre considering buying. In many cases, you can split the mineral rights and still yield big profits from a mineral leasing contract. Mineral leases are some of the most lucrative real estate deals in the world.
The catch: Make sure you know who youre communicating with when leasing your mineral rights. Often, agents for oil companies will take the lease and then flip it to the company, earning a profit for themselves. But that may leave you unsure of who to communicate with once the lease begins. If you own multiple tracts of land, demand individual leases for each tract instead of a bulk lease to maximize your profit, and ask neighbors who are leasing their mineral rights what kind of deal they got so you know youre not being lowballed, Stephens said.
Graham Wood
Graham Wood is a senior editor for REALTOR® Magazine. He can be reached at gwood@realtors.org.
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Tags:agriculture,commercial development,investing,investment property,land use,residential development
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10
Morguefile.com
Morguefile.com
Have you ever thought about investing in real estate to supplement your income? You might immediately think of flipping houses or leasing rental homes, but theres another option that could be just as fruitful, if not more so: investing in land. With the economy on the upward trajectory, land is rising in demand. At the 2015 REALTORS® Conference & Expo in San Diego, Jeramy Stephens of Mossy Oak Properties in Stuttgart, Ark., offered the most profitable options for land investment.
Ranch land
These properties are in high demand right now, both by individual or family farmers and corporate agricultural enterprises. A big reason is because of the increase in cattle prices. As the economy improves, so does demand for meat-related products, Stephens noted. (People tend to spend more money on fine-dining experiences at steakhouses, for example.) You could yield significant cash flow by leasing properties ideal for cattle raising and herding.
The catch: Consider carefully whether you want to lease or sell to individuals or companies. An individual rancher, Stephens said, will have more of a personal interest in the property and may be more inclined to make the upkeep of the land a priority.
Timberland Investments
Forests and large wooded areas could bring in huge bucks, particularly as housing development ramps back up. When building materials are in demand, lumber companies will pay a premium for a steady supply of wood. And trees will always grow back, so you can expect long-term yields. Trees grow year in and year out you dont even have to do anything, Stephens said. Theyll grow through recessions, wars, and stock market crashes.
The catch: Dont expect annual cash flow from timberland investments. You only get paid once the timberland has been harvested. Youll get a rather large lump sum at that point, but it wont happen again until the next harvest which could be years.
Hay and Grazing Production
During times of extreme drought, which California and Texas are currently dealing with, farmers rely on outside production of hay and grass to feed their livestock. Considering the years-long drought pattern in some parts of the country where farming is big business, nows a good time to invest in land where you can produce these goods.
The catch: The success of this type of investment is somewhat at the mercy of weather patters. If the drought finally ends in California and Texas, for example, you may lose a lot of customers who can suddenly become self-reliant for hay and grass production.
Commercial/Residential Development Land
Pay attention to which directions retail and residential development is spreading in your area. Then invest in undeveloped land in the outlying areas. Chances are developers will be eyeing those areas next, and you can lease or sell the land to them for big profits. You could also own a piece of the development (you dont have to be a large company to do this, Stephens said), or you could subdivide the land for multiple developments and make an even bigger profit.
The catch: This type of land purchase is based on speculation about where developers will go in the future, so you wont see an immediate return on your investment. This is definitely a long-term option. Additionally, developers will want the land to be utility ready, with electricity, water lines, and sewers in place. That upfront work will be up to you to complete.
Mineral Production Land
In areas where oil and gas companies are seeking land for drilling, you could make a killing by leasing property to them for oil production. But mineral rights dont always belong 100 percent to the owner of the land. Do your due diligence before buying to see if any other entities own the mineral rights to the parcel youre considering buying. In many cases, you can split the mineral rights and still yield big profits from a mineral leasing contract. Mineral leases are some of the most lucrative real estate deals in the world.
The catch: Make sure you know who youre communicating with when leasing your mineral rights. Often, agents for oil companies will take the lease and then flip it to the company, earning a profit for themselves. But that may leave you unsure of who to communicate with once the lease begins. If you own multiple tracts of land, demand individual leases for each tract instead of a bulk lease to maximize your profit, and ask neighbors who are leasing their mineral rights what kind of deal they got so you know youre not being lowballed, Stephens said.
Graham Wood
Graham Wood is a senior editor for REALTOR® Magazine. He can be reached at gwood@realtors.org.
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