Parky60 Loc: People's Republic of Illinois

There's something suspicious about the latest jobs report from the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS), which claims that the economy added 353,000 jobs in January—more than double what economists had predicted. Is it true? Most likely not, and I'll explain why.

For weeks now, there have been reports of mass layoffs in the tech industry, including at iRobot, Amazon, Google, and Meta, among several others. The news industry has also been plagued by mass layoffs in recent weeks. These layoffs weren't out of the blue, either. Newsweek predicted last month that "mass layoffs are in store for 2024, and it might end up affecting nearly half of companies."

But the Biden administration says everything is fine. Better than fine, actually.

"America’s economy is the strongest in the world," Joe Biden declared in a statement Friday. "Today, we saw more proof, with another month of strong wage gains and employment gains of over 350,000 in January, continuing the strong growth from last year."

But how legit are these numbers? Prior to the release of the report, Zero Hedge listed some (but not all) of the layoffs that were announced in recent months:

• Twitch (35% of workforce)
• Hasbro (20% of workforce)
• Spotify (17% of workforce)
• Levi's (15% of workforce)
• Zerox (15% of workforce)
• Qualtrics (14% of workforce)
• Wayfair (13% of workforce)
• Duolingo (10% of workforce)
• Washington Post (10% of workforce)
• eBay (9% of workforce)
• Business Insider (8% of workforce)
• Paypal (7% of workforce)
• Charles Schwab (6% of workforce)
• UPS (2% of workforce)
• Blackrock (3% of workforce)
• Citigroup (20,000 employees)
• Pixar (1,300 employees).

This is not a sign of a strong, growing economy.

How much can the Biden administration's numbers be trusted? Well, not much. As Zero Hedge noted after the release of the report, "Once again there was a huge dispersion between the Establishment and Household Surveys, and while the former indicated an increase of 353K, the latter reported a drop in Employment of 31K!"

A chart comparing the Establishment and Household Surveys shows that while the reports have generally been quite close, there has been a growing disparity between them since June 2022.



Moreover, in addition to the suspicious figure of 353,000 jobs added in January, Zero Hedge notes that overall employment actually dropped by 31,000, with full-time employment experiencing a decline of 63,000, while part-time positions saw a significant surge, increasing by 96,000.

Clearly none of that mattered to the BLS, however, which had just one mission: to make the Biden economy look double super good-good ahead of the November elections, and it wasn't just payrolls which blew away expectations, the unemployment rate also slipped, staying at 3.7%, vs expectations of an increase to 3.8%. That said, among the major worker groups, the unemployment rates for adult men (3.6 percent), adult women (3.2 percent), teenagers (10.6 percent), Whites (3.4 percent), Blacks (5.3 percent), Asians (2.9 percent), and Hispanics (5.0 percent) showed little or no change in January.

Even the alleged wage increase, the report boasted about is deceptive. A closer look reveals that this apparent wage growth is attributed to a decline in actual working hours rather than an authentic increase in wages. The average workweek for all employees on private nonfarm payrolls decreased by 0.2 hours to 34.1 hours in January—a 0.5-hour decline over the year, which is the lowest level observed since the thick of the pandemic.

It appears from the report that the BLS has been given the task of making the labor market appear strong and robust ahead of the election in November. Will it work? Did Biden's claiming for years that Bidenomics was working change attitudes about the economy?

JFlorio Loc: Seminole Florida

I have been preaching on here for awhile now that these numbers aren't accurate but the idiots who worship at the alter of everything Biden want to accuse me of being some kind of MAGA. My opinion comes from the reports I see and researching 10 -K's. Payroll stats. and labor participation rate. Somehow my non-partisan conclusions make me a Trumper. Only, because idiots can't refute the conclusions.

saltwind 78 Loc: Murrells Inlet, South Carolina

Parky, All I know is that my stocks are at an all-time high, employment is growing by leaps and bounds, and inflation is slowing down. That sounds like a damned good economy to me.

JFlorio Loc: Seminole Florida

Depending on when you got in, tax bracket, long term or short term capital gains you may not be as far ahead as you think. Many of the gains in the market are just recouping loss's from 2022. If you lose 20% you have to gain 25% just to get even. The markets are strong right now, but worrisome. Most of this economy is built on government debt as stimulus. Many of the jobs are either misreported as I believe or part-time. I think the labor participation rate is much more accurate as an indicator of overall employment. Many of the jobs being created are in health care and government, both heavily subsidized by the private sector. This economy IMO (hope I am wrong) is built on a "house of cards." Just wait until the commercial property bubble busts.

Ricktloml

The Gestapo Joe regime has to "revise" the numbers down every time...it's just a matter of how big is the lie

Liberty Tree

When you lose as many jobs as you gain that is not growth.

Sonny Magoo Loc: Where pot pie is boiled in a kettle

Most Americans don't own stocks.
Most Americans live paycheck to paycheck and the pandemic "savings" is over.
All the numbers in the world don't help them buy groceries and pay heating bills.
Inflation jumped out so far ahead of earnings the only thing that matters is how much money is left at the end of the month.....credit card debt is extremely high...come on Salty...see the light!

TruePatriot49 Loc: The Democratic People's Republic Rhode Island

SaltBreakingWind666, what goes up, will go down. In the Great Depression, the stock market fell over 50% in a real short time. The value of your investments is all "on paper" until you liquidate it and have cash in hand. Don't get attached to your investments.

JFlorio Loc: Seminole Florida

Much like sitting at the poker table. All those chips are worthless until you cash in.

Snoopy

Another Federal Government LIE!

WEBCO

Part time employment is growing by leaps and bounds...full time employment is decreasing at an alarming rate.

pegw

[quote=Parky60]There's something suspicious about the latest jobs report from the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS), which claims that the economy added 353,000 jobs in January—more than double what economists had predicted. Is it true? Most likely not, and I'll explain why.

For weeks now, there have been reports of mass layoffs in the tech industry, including at iRobot, Amazon, Google, and Meta, among several others. The news industry has also been plagued by mass layoffs in recent weeks. These layoffs weren't out of the blue, either. Newsweek predicted last month that "mass layoffs are in store for 2024, and it might end up affecting nearly half of companies."

But the Biden administration says everything is fine. Better than fine, actually.

"America’s economy is the strongest in the world," Joe Biden declared in a statement Friday. "Today, we saw more proof, with another month of strong wage gains and employment gains of over 350,000 in January, continuing the strong growth from last year."

But how legit are these numbers? Prior to the release of the report, Zero Hedge listed some (but not all) of the layoffs that were announced in recent months:

• Twitch (35% of workforce)
• Hasbro (20% of workforce)
• Spotify (17% of workforce)
• Levi's (15% of workforce)
• Zerox (15% of workforce)
• Qualtrics (14% of workforce)
• Wayfair (13% of workforce)
• Duolingo (10% of workforce)
• Washington Post (10% of workforce)
• eBay (9% of workforce)
• Business Insider (8% of workforce)
• Paypal (7% of workforce)
• Charles Schwab (6% of workforce)
• UPS (2% of workforce)
• Blackrock (3% of workforce)
• Citigroup (20,000 employees)
• Pixar (1,300 employees).

This is not a sign of a strong, growing economy.

How much can the Biden administration's numbers be trusted? Well, not much. As Zero Hedge noted after the release of the report, "Once again there was a huge dispersion between the Establishment and Household Surveys, and while the former indicated an increase of 353K, the latter reported a drop in Employment of 31K!"

A chart comparing the Establishment and Household Surveys shows that while the reports have generally been quite close, there has been a growing disparity between them since June 2022.



Moreover, in addition to the suspicious figure of 353,000 jobs added in January, Zero Hedge notes that overall employment actually dropped by 31,000, with full-time employment experiencing a decline of 63,000, while part-time positions saw a significant surge, increasing by 96,000.

Clearly none of that mattered to the BLS, however, which had just one mission: to make the Biden economy look double super good-good ahead of the November elections, and it wasn't just payrolls which blew away expectations, the unemployment rate also slipped, staying at 3.7%, vs expectations of an increase to 3.8%. That said, among the major worker groups, the unemployment rates for adult men (3.6 percent), adult women (3.2 percent), teenagers (10.6 percent), Whites (3.4 percent), Blacks (5.3 percent), Asians (2.9 percent), and Hispanics (5.0 percent) showed little or no change in January.

Even the alleged wage increase, the report boasted This

This story sounded a bit crazy, so I decided to do some fact checking. Zero hedge is a far right wing publication with a low degree of reliability according to Media Bias, All sides and ad Fontes. I suspect your lovely graphs were made up by some anonymous person on the Zero hedge site. The US census bureau collects the unemployment data, and one can get it by searching for it at US census.gov. The few companies you named as laying off people are not necessarily the whole picture of the US. There are still help wanted signs in nearly every store I go to.

JFlorio Loc: Seminole Florida

[quote=pegw]

You mooron. I get the actual numbers (revised) from your wonderful government sources, The graph is accuate. Stick your fact checkers where the sun don't shine. After you remove your head that is.

Knightlady

[quote=pegw]

Help wanted signs. Most likely part-time, a little above minimum wage cashier or stocker

JFlorio Loc: Seminole Florida

Florida is a very service oriented economy. There are jobs wanted signs all over bi saw a homeless guy holding a sign the other day asking for a contribution. Right behind him was a help wanted sign.