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Extremely gloomy prediction,18 months of shutdowns ...Personally I think it's BS!
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Apr 13, 2020 20:51:10   #
maryjane
 
Blade_Runner wrote:
If we don't get our economy cranking soon the curve of the downward trend will steepen. More and more businesses will shutdown, job losses will continue to climb and if we reach a 30% unemployment rate, we will be in a deep depression. Or worse.

In 1922, 160 German marks equaled one US dollar, by the end of 1923, the mark had depreciated to 4.2 trillion marks = $1.00. The unemployment rate in Germany at the time was 30%, one third of the workforce. Germans were starving, often with out electricity, couldn't heat their homes. A loaf of bread cost 200 billion marks, and Germans were burning billion mark notes in their stoves to stay warm or cook a potato.

The consequences of this economic shutdown could easily be far more lethal than the coronavirus itself.

We gotta be very smart about how we handle this. Unfortunately "smart" is in short supply, especially among state governors.

As Richard Preston pointed out in his chilling account (Crisis in the Red Zone) of the 1976 Ebola outbreak in Zaire, "nature often does whatever is necessary in order to make the most experts wrong."
If we don't get our economy cranking soon the curv... (show quote)


I have no wish to sound hard hearted, but if our nation is going to successfully survive this and such inevitable future happenings, we, the US, must accept the inevitability of deaths of our people from viruses just as we already do for auto accidents, cancer, violence, heart attacks, etc, and not become crazy and destroy the economic future for EVERY American and our descendants. Yes, some people will always die because death is a part of life, but life must continue for the living, no matter the mourning. And, before any of you jump on me, ket me say that I am 80 years old, and when it is my time to go, from a virus or whatever, it is simply my time.

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Apr 13, 2020 21:36:33   #
Blade_Runner Loc: DARK SIDE OF THE MOON
 
woodguru wrote:
Just think of all the billions of dollars people aren't losing, heck, the money saved in prostitutes alone is substantial.

I'm afraid we can do without casinos and hookers for awhile, who knows, maybe people will get used to saving the money.
What money? Save it for what?

The economy of the gaming industry involves a helluva lot more than just crap tables, slot machines and hookers - travel agents, bus lines, airlines, truck lines, railroads, motels, restaurants, supermarkets, grocery stores, gift shops, beauty salons, barber shops, clothing stores, jewelers, gas stations, truck stops, not to mention the infrastructure like the power company, city services, etc etc etc.

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Apr 13, 2020 22:13:14   #
dtucker300 Loc: Vista, CA
 
maryjane wrote:
Perhaps one thing that can actually help American workers return to jobs and remain there is to STOP Congress and big business from bringing in more foreign workers, period. Then we could also end the unemployment craziness just implemented by Congress and put each and every ablebodied American citizen into a job, even helping them move, if necessary, for the job. Then, if we could put a permanent end to any foreign, non-US citizens having any access to ANY type of public assistance including any welfare service, Social Security/disability/Medicare, free medical care, special ID cards issued by our IRS allowing income tax filing and big refunds, using our own legal system against us to avoid deportation or get undeserved asylum or refuge, and an end, permanently, to ANY freebies of any sort just becsuse of birthing a child in the USA. As long as the interests of foreigners and US big business are placed way ahead of the interests of Americans and our country's future, our economy will never have any security for anyone except the wealthy elites, because combining our ever-growing national debt, the constant foolish spending of our congresses, and the constant addition of 2-3 million new scamming foreigners annually and giving most almost all the rights and benefits of citizens without any of the responsibilities can lead only to eventual collapse and failure of the USA.
Perhaps one thing that can actually help American ... (show quote)


Good point. Businesses that are unpatriotic should not be allowed to conduct their business as usual. I am all for lowering the Corporate Tax Rate to encourage American Companies to return to America and be patriotic corporate citizens in addition to having the "Made in USA" tag on their product. Getting rid of immigrants could cause a serious brain drain in this country. Our education system is failing too many American students. Many leave school without any skills in addition to still having poor reading, writing, math, and self-learning skills necessary to learn new jobs. A sensible, fair, and limited immigration system is okay. The birthright babies and borders crashers should not receive anything. We, and many businesses, keep encouraging them to come for the cheap labor they provide. There are wealthy who do the right thing, keep employees and their businesses operating, paying their taxes, contributing to charity, and helping build their community is not the problem. It is, as you say, the wealthy elites more interested only in earning more money at everyone's expense, wreaking havoc on the environment, sheltering their profits from taxes by locating in other countries and hiring the cheapest labor force they can find, which are not good patriotic companies nor corporate citizens. Many of the tech companies are becoming like this. They cooperate with the Chinese Government and share proprietary information with the CCP. You can't entice nor bring American companies back to America if you are going to tax them to death like Sanders and the socialists want to do.

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Apr 14, 2020 00:23:24   #
EconomistDon
 
Parky60 wrote:
You do know Pete that you don't necessarily need a very large database to determine how many have immunity and how many more are still susceptible to the virus. It could be as few as 1000 to draw valid statistical conclusions.


I'm sure that Pete has no idea of sample selection, sample size, and stratification to produce valid statistical results within acceptable error ranges. He has not shown us much in the area of intellectual capacity. However, I am impressed that he put up a post that has no political insults toward Trump or Trump supporters. That is rare for Fascist Pete.

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Apr 14, 2020 05:12:30   #
nonalien1 Loc: Mojave Desert
 
[quote=dtucker300]Is he the same person who wrote [I]The Hot Zone[.i] about the ebola outbreak in monkeys at a lab Army lab in Virginia, or maybe it was Maryland. I like his quote. I've read that someone where else once and had forgotten it. Anyway, they sure can't keep everyone penned up for long. I think we have reached a point where the cure is worse than the disease for most people.

CA and NY, with possibly the two most liberal governors in the country and representing a huge part of our economy could damage most of the country. CA is already a socialist haven. They are putting homeless up in hotel rooms. How long can that continue before the hotels want the rooms for other paying customers? How long can the state continue to pay for this and what do they do with them after the pandemic ends and these homeless have nowhere else to go but back on the streets. The socialists in Sacramento will find a way to raise more taxes to put the homeless in some kind of temporary home.[/quote]
I think the homeless will be put in FEMA camps never to be heard from again

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Apr 14, 2020 05:14:14   #
PeterS
 
Parky60 wrote:
You do know Pete that you don't necessarily need a very large database to determine how many have immunity and how many more are still susceptible to the virus. It could be as few as 1000 to draw valid statistical conclusions.

Yes, but we are trying to restart a nation while we still have an active virus and no vaccine for it. A random sample taken over the US won't tell us if it's okay to start up Houston or LA or NYCity. We have to have samples of every city and every state and it has to be up to the CDC, not politicians and businessmen who have something to lose by not getting things going. As hard as it is for everyone to understand this can't be political but it has to be left up to science and we have to do what the best science tells us to do.

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Apr 14, 2020 05:17:50   #
nonalien1 Loc: Mojave Desert
 
PeterS wrote:
Yes, but we are trying to restart a nation while we still have an active virus and no vaccine for it. A random sample taken over the US won't tell us if it's okay to start up Houston or LA or NYCity. We have to have samples of every city and every state and it has to be up to the CDC, not politicians and businessmen who have something to lose by not getting things going. As hard as it is for everyone to understand this can't be political but it has to be left up to science and we have to do what the best science tells us to do.
Yes, but we are trying to restart a nation while w... (show quote)

The CDC is as 0olitical as theDNC

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Apr 14, 2020 05:35:27   #
nonalien1 Loc: Mojave Desert
 
PeterS wrote:
Yes, but we are trying to restart a nation while we still have an active virus and no vaccine for it. A random sample taken over the US won't tell us if it's okay to start up Houston or LA or NYCity. We have to have samples of every city and every state and it has to be up to the CDC, not politicians and businessmen who have something to lose by not getting things going. As hard as it is for everyone to understand this can't be political but it has to be left up to science and we have to do what the best science tells us to do.
Yes, but we are trying to restart a nation while w... (show quote)

And when a city or state is cleared to go back to work, how are you going to keep every one else out?

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Apr 14, 2020 05:47:27   #
PeterS
 
Blade_Runner wrote:
If we don't get our economy cranking soon the curve of the downward trend will steepen. More and more businesses will shutdown, job losses will continue to climb and if we reach a 30% unemployment rate, we will be in a deep depression. Or worse.

In 1922, 160 German marks equaled one US dollar, by the end of 1923, the mark had depreciated to 4.2 trillion marks = $1.00. The unemployment rate in Germany at the time was 30%, one third of the workforce. Germans were starving, often with out electricity, couldn't heat their homes. A loaf of bread cost 200 billion marks, and Germans were burning billion mark notes in their stoves to stay warm or cook a potato.

The consequences of this economic shutdown could easily be far more lethal than the coronavirus itself.

We gotta be very smart about how we handle this. Unfortunately "smart" is in short supply, especially among state governors.

As Richard Preston pointed out in his chilling account (Crisis in the Red Zone) of the 1976 Ebola outbreak in Zaire, "nature often does whatever is necessary in order to make the most experts wrong."
If we don't get our economy cranking soon the curv... (show quote)

We have better tools today than we had during the great depression plus the wealthy still have their money and the Fed and Washington are going to be more than happy to help capitalize the capitalists so it will take time but we can pull out without a great disaster.

I don't see our country as the problem nor the democracies of the world but China is going to find themselves with a smaller piece of the pie simply because we have to start manufacturing here simply so our people can find employment. I simply don't know what will happen when their economy is in a continual downturn? For that reason, China is who I worry about not the United States...

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Apr 14, 2020 05:52:32   #
PeterS
 
nonalien1 wrote:
And when a city or state is cleared to go back to work, how are you going to keep everyone else out?

I not sure if I see what you mean. If the cities are cleared you aren't going to keep people out. That's why it's a good idea to know what percentage of the population has no immunity to the virus. If it's the majority then it would be suicide to fully restart and not have a vaccine.

That question to be asked is if we have to shut down the economy again will we be able to do it or will people have had enough and refuse to obey the law?

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Apr 14, 2020 06:05:40   #
PeterS
 
EconomistDon wrote:
I'm sure that Pete has no idea of sample selection, sample size, and stratification to produce valid statistical results within acceptable error ranges. He has not shown us much in the area of intellectual capacity. However, I am impressed that he put up a post that has no political insults toward Trump or Trump supporters. That is rare for Fascist Pete.

The only economist on the board and all you can do is sit around and denigrate others. How very typical of someone who actually is what he calls others...

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Apr 14, 2020 06:44:42   #
PeterS
 
EconomistDon wrote:
I'm sure that Pete has no idea of sample selection, sample size, and stratification to produce valid statistical results within acceptable error ranges. He has not shown us much in the area of intellectual capacity. However, I am impressed that he put up a post that has no political insults toward Trump or Trump supporters. That is rare for Fascist Pete.

And here's something else Don -- remember when Trump said we were going to see GDP numbers of 3,4,5,6% and even higher? Now Trump wasn't talking about quarterly numbers either, he was talking about yearly GDP. Well, 17 was 2.8, 18 was 2.5, and 19 was 2.3. Now I am writing this year off because of the virus but the trend under Trump was an economy that was going down not up. And yes, I know that we had reached full employment but Hillary's monkey could have put up numbers like that and produced the same employment numbers. The only difference is that the monkey really would entertain the entire country and not just you conservatives along the way.

Now here is my point--this world's best economy EVER that Trump and his puppets liked to crow about was nothing but hype and the proof positive is that Trump needed a deficit of a trillion dollars each year to accomplish what he accomplished. Now it just so happens that a trillion yearly works out, roughly, to be 4.5%. Now think about that, to achieve economic growth of 2.5% he had to borrow 4.5% to accomplish it!

I just find it so incredibly ironic that you so-called capitalists and supply-siders can't accomplish a goddamn thing without massive borrowing from the government! It was the same under Reagan, the same under Bush Jr, and the same under Trump. And if you want to point your finger at Obama the only reason he ran up so much debt was because of the economy handed to him by Junior. At least under Obama, the debt was getting less each year whereas under Trump we are going to be lucky if the debt he accumulates doesn't sink this entire country.

You people claim to hate government, yet, you can't accomplish a goddamn thing economically without it. So not only are you fascists you're hypocrites to boot! Just sayn...

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Apr 14, 2020 10:05:19   #
Parky60 Loc: People's Republic of Illinois
 
PeterS wrote:
The only economist on the board and all you can do is sit around and denigrate others. How very typical of someone who actually is what he calls others...

Looking in the mirror Pete?

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Apr 14, 2020 12:06:39   #
eagleye13 Loc: Fl
 
PeterS wrote:
And here's something else Don -- remember when Trump said we were going to see GDP numbers of 3,4,5,6% and even higher? Now Trump wasn't talking about quarterly numbers either, he was talking about yearly GDP. Well, 17 was 2.8, 18 was 2.5, and 19 was 2.3. Now I am writing this year off because of the virus but the trend under Trump was an economy that was going down not up. And yes, I know that we had reached full employment but Hillary's monkey could have put up numbers like that and produced the same employment numbers. The only difference is that the monkey really would entertain the entire country and not just you conservatives along the way.

Now here is my point--this world's best economy EVER that Trump and his puppets liked to crow about was nothing but hype and the proof positive is that Trump needed a deficit of a trillion dollars each year to accomplish what he accomplished. Now it just so happens that a trillion yearly works out, roughly, to be 4.5%. Now think about that, to achieve economic growth of 2.5% he had to borrow 4.5% to accomplish it!

I just find it so incredibly ironic that you so-called capitalists and supply-siders can't accomplish a goddamn thing without massive borrowing from the government! It was the same under Reagan, the same under Bush Jr, and the same under Trump. And if you want to point your finger at Obama the only reason he ran up so much debt was because of the economy handed to him by Junior. At least under Obama, the debt was getting less each year whereas under Trump we are going to be lucky if the debt he accumulates doesn't sink this entire country.

You people claim to hate government, yet, you can't accomplish a goddamn thing economically without it. So not only are you fascists you're hypocrites to boot! Just sayn...
And here's something else Don -- remember when Tru... (show quote)


I wonder;
Who has given thought to the Democrats shutting down the country for a year or 18 months?

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Apr 14, 2020 15:31:06   #
dtucker300 Loc: Vista, CA
 
PeterS wrote:
We have better tools today than we had during the great depression plus the wealthy still have their money and the Fed and Washington are going to be more than happy to help capitalize the capitalists so it will take time but we can pull out without a great disaster.

I don't see our country as the problem nor the democracies of the world but China is going to find themselves with a smaller piece of the pie simply because we have to start manufacturing here simply so our people can find employment. I simply don't know what will happen when their economy is in a continual downturn? For that reason, China is who I worry about not the United States...
We have better tools today than we had during the ... (show quote)


Quote:
China is who I worry about not the United States...


This says a lot about you. (I've purposely taken this out of context to illustrate how the media and leftists do the same to everything Trump says.) Otherwise, there is much I agree with you about here.

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