There have been two major economic experiments proving that sufficient deficit spending to increase consumer demand will restore prosperity.
In January 1933, Hitler took power during a terrible depression and restored prosperity in one year by spending heavily on the autobahn, the Volkswagen, TV, gliders, zeppelins, concentration camps, munitions, etc. That made him popular and enabled him to rebuild the German Army.
In March 1933, FDR took power during a terrible depression and managed to reduce the unemployment rate from 25% to 12% by 1936 by spending as much as Republicans would let him spend on WPA, PWA, CCC, TVA, and more. He built the Hoover Dam, planted two billion trees, and built thousands of federal buildings still in service. Just when he wanted to start on the Interstate Highway System, the Republicans made him balance the budget and the unemployment rate went back up to 18% by 1939.
Then World War II brought fantastic, utterly wasteful spending without limit. Did it bring more depression? No! Prosperity was restored within one year. Eighty million war workers had money in the bank and in war bonds, enough to live decently during the war and to buy cars and homes after the war.
When I came home from Europe in 1935, my uncle told me that my grandchildren would be paying off the debt. He was so wrong. The war debt was never paid off. It still exists as a blip on the current debt, overwhelmed by the tremendous spending on veterans homes and education, the Marshall Plan, Cold
War rearmament, the Korean War, nuclear energy, the Interstate Highway System, NASA, the Vietnam war, and a dozen proxy wars. The result was that the wartime debt/GDP ratio declined from 120% to 30% during 35 years of prosperity due to growth of the denominator, GDP.
Ask grandma how good it was.
Deficit spending has always brought recovery from recessions and depressions every time the spending was large enough.
Obamas stimulus was a great success and would have brought full recovery if it were three or four times larger to fully close the output gap.
http://www.pitbulleconomics.com/stimulus.pdfRecessions are caused by lack of consumer demand. Prosperity depends upon major purchases (homes, cars, etc.), which require bank loans based upon savings. So, recovery from a recession requires savings, which the working population uses to reduce debt. Therefore, recovery needs new savings from new hiring generated by investment in new products. So, recovery waits for investors who wait for recovery, which explains the slow recovery.
To hasten recovery, there must be another source of savings. With a trade deficit, that source must be deficit spending on infrastructure by the federal government. Without such deficit spending, there can be no early savings, lending, major purchases, and quick recovery.
If FDR spent in 1933 as much as he spent in 1943, would not the depression have ended in 1934 as it ended in 1944 due to the same amount of spending? It worked for Hitler. Why would it not work for FDR?
There have been two major economic experiments pro... (