Doc110 Loc: York PA

08/09/2017 Death Spiral: 6.5 Million People Choose To Pay Tax Rather Than Buy Obamacare

Tyler Durden
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-08-09/death-spiral-65-million-people-choose-pay-tax-rather-buy-obamacare

A Brief Look at the Turbulent Individual Health Insurance Market
http://www.markfarrah.com/healthcare-business-strategy/A-Brief-Look-at-the-Turbulent-Individual-Health-Insurance-Market.aspx

Is Part of the Health-Insurance Market Entering a Death Spiral?
http://www.nationalreview.com/article/450095/obamacare-death-spiral-exchange-enrollment-down-29-percent

For those who still aren't convinced that Obamacare is trapped in an inescapable death spiral.

That will inevitably end in nothing short of an epic collapse of the federal and state health insurance exchanges.

Perhaps you should consider the following facts from the National Review and Mark Farrah and Associates.


1. Four heavily promoted open enrollments have taken place run by the Obama administration and the state exchanges.


2. Federal law has required people to purchase insurance or pay a fine —

And the individual mandate was administered through 2016 by the Obama administration.

In fact, in 2015, 7.5 million people paid the fine, while 6.5 million paid the fine in 2016, according to the IRS.


3. Every one of the people in the insurance market earning less than 400 percent of the federal poverty level were eligible for premium assistance —

And those below 250 percent of the poverty level were also eligible to have their deductibles and co-pays subsidized.


4. After all of this, only about 40 percent of those eligible for subsidies have signed up for coverage.

In what other business or government program would such a dismal acceptance by those it was targeted to serve be considered a success?


The number of insurance companies participating is on track to shrink by 38 percent in 2018.

And then there is the chart below...

If people really saw "value" in Obamacare wouldn't you expect that more than 2% of the people who don't qualify for subisidies would sign up?

Finally, I will suggest the real test of whether a health-insurance program is stable.

Is whether the consumers for whom it is intended believe that it provides them with value.


Here is a chart of the take-up rate on the federal exchanges under the Affordable Care Act;

Excluding the “Over 400%” category, all of these individuals are eligible for subsidies.

This chart represents data from last year, but with only a 4 percent reduction in those purchasing on the exchanges between 2016 and 2017.

It should remain a fair indication of consumer approval of the program.


The health-insurance industry has long considered a 75 percent take-up rate to be the gold standard in evaluating whether an insurance pool is stable —

i.e., whether there are enough healthy people signed up to pay the claims of the sick.

While the exchanges appear to have achieved this for the lowest-income consumers —

Those who get the biggest premium subsidies and also have their out-of-pocket costs subsidized —

Only 17 percent of those making 301 to 400 percent of the poverty level have signed up.


Obamacare, Still not convinced, how about this?

The "off-exchange market" (i.e. people who make too much money to quality for subsidies and whose premiums are required to subsidize everyone else who does qualify).

Contracted by 2.1mm in 2016, or a 29% drop.

With those kind of declines, it's only a matter of time until there are no more rich fools in the pool willing to continue subsidizing a broken system.


Also, MFA published the same report in 2016, facilitating a year-over-year comparison.

The on-exchange market fell from 12,681,874 to 12,216,003 individuals, a reduction of 465,871 or 4 percent.

However, the off-exchange market fell from 7,520,939 to 5,361,451, a reduction of 2,159,488 or 29 percent.

In other words, enrollment is steady among those who receive subsidies but declining dramatically among those who do not.


Much has been made of the question of whether the individual markets are in a “death spiral.”


Given that the on-exchange market enrollment is relatively stable, there is clearly not a death spiral in the subsidized market.

However, with a reduction in the unsubsidized market of 29 percent in just one year, that pattern certainly looks like one we would expect in a market spiraling down.


Meanwhile, of course, that 29% drop exactly why insurance companies are expected to hike their rates by 20-40% in certain markets again in 2018...


...and why rates have soared an average of 113% over the past 4 years, or nearly 30% per year.


In summary, higher rates results in more people dropping out which results in higher rates...

See the ponzi-ish circularity yet?

robmull Loc: florida

It's a (D)amn shame, Doc110. A (D)amn shame. President "45" Trump (R), did his best to stop the coming carnage from the attempted Marx/Alinsky (D), take-over of our health industry, but apparently God wasn't quite ready to let "lefty" off-the-hook. Interesting. It's too bad that middle-class America has to take the financial brunt of-it, but President Trump (R), did all he could do without the help of a single A-hole who initiated the "obamanation," to-begin-with. A (D)amn shame. God works in mysterious ways.

Morgan

One constant is that their rates climb no matter what, but under Obama less. Obama administration has, in fact, boasted many times of the recent slow growth in health care spending overall. From 2009 to 2013, total health care expenditures for the U.S. have been rising at rates around 4 percent per year (see Table 1). The journal Health Affairs noted that such rates are the lowest since the Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services started compiling the National Health Expenditure Accounts data in 1960.

Note the high increase before Obama care

Super Dave Loc: Realville, USA

Obamacare in a death spiral?

Gee, who saw this coming?

Except everybody I mean.

Super Dave Loc: Realville, USA

Morgan...

The rates increase as the benefits decline.

The deductibles skyrocketed to the point that untold 1000s of people can't afford to use their mandatory insurance.

Many people report their deductibles Going Up 3 to $5,000 per year.

Obamacare is in a death spiral because it was designed to fail.

Doc110 Loc: York PA

Morgan,

What are you smoking, do you even know what your talking about.

The ACA Healthcare Insurance Premium rate increases exponentially from 2010 to 2017 . . . typically by 30% each year or 210% . . . Wow . . .

Do some research, and don't make a blithering liberal idiot of your-self.


Obamacare was not even enacted and voted on until 2010, So there is nothing to compare until that year . . . Duhhhh

Politifact.com, “Barack Obama Campaign Promise No. 521:
Cut the Cost of a Typical Family’s Health Insurance Premium by up to $2,500 a Year.”

That never happened . . . Obama went on national television and he admitted that he lied to the American people . . . and you can keep your doctor . . . on the ACA. More Democratic lies.

1. 2010 Rate Increases:
In combination with the limited cost-sharing—
Will increase premiums 27–30 percent in the individual market and up to 3 percent in the small group market.
http://www.heritage.org/health-care-reform/report/obamacare-increases-health-insurance-premiums

2. 2011 Rate Increases: Premiums for those ages 18–24 by 45 percent and those ages 25–29 by 35 percent while decreasing premiums for those ages 55–59 by 12 percent and those ages 60–64 by 13 percent.
Obamacare and Insurance Rating Rules: Increasing Costs and Destabilizing Markets
http://www.heritage.org/health-care-reform/report/obamacare-and-insurance-rating-rules-increasing-costs-and-destabilizing

3. 2012 Rate Increases: over the last 12 months, rates have increased by 27.2 percent and 18.1 percent, respectively
http://healthpolicyandmarket.blogspot.ru/2012/01/

4. 2013 Rate Increases: Premiums on some customers by more than 30% individual-market premiums in California by as much as 146%.
https://www.forbes.com/sites/theapothecary/2013/05/30/rate-shock-in-california-obamacare-to-increase-individual-insurance-premiums-by-64-146/#75604cc04df4
RATE SHOCK: Obamacare causing 539% increase in health insurance costs for Texans
http://thefreethoughtproject.com/rate-shock-obamacare-causing-539-increase-health-insurance-costs-texans-see-proof/

5. 2014 Rate Increases: individual market will increase an average of 32% 40% estimates an average premium increase
https://energycommerce.house.gov/sites/republicans.energycommerce.house.gov/files/analysis/20130305PremiumReport.pdf

6. 2015 Rate Increases: Even modest premium increases by market leaders of 5% could lead to materially higher net premium contribution increases of 30% to near 100% for low income [subsidy eligible] enrollees during 2015
http://healthpolicyandmarket.blogspot.ru/2014/09/the-next-chapter-of-obamacare.html#more

7. 2016 Rate Increases: Ouch! Massive Obamacare Premium Increases Will Dominate 2016 from 25%, to 60% increases.
http://www.breitbart.com/big-government/2015/07/06/ouch-massive-obamacare-premium-increases-will-dominate-2016/

8. 2017 Rate Increases: 8 States Where Obamacare Rates Are Rising by at Least 30% some States 16% to 67% premium increases.
http://time.com/money/4535394/obamacare-plan-premium-price-increases-2017-states/

Obamacare causing 539% increase in health insurance costs for Texans.
http://thefreethoughtproject.com/rate-shock-obamacare-causing-539-increase-health-insurance-costs-texans-see-proof/

9. 2018 Rate Increases: Insurers want to raise Obamacare rates as much as 53 percent
https://www.vox.com/policy-and-politics/2017/5/17/15655532/voxcare-insurers-rate-hikes


Morgan your very naive, in your loyally to the ACA and Obamacare, again do some real research in the future . . .

All you are doing is stroking the democratic dog with lies . . .

Morgan

Who saw this coming, more to the point... who perpetrated it from trying force its failure, with all their efforts the right failed at it, it grew the entire time Obama was in office, now you people are in full control, of course, you WILL... make it fail, you fool no one.

Morgan

Wrong again Obama NEVER admitted he lie, but of course, that's all you heard. Obama admitted to saying that in error, not realizing how many policies being held were bogus and would not hold up to the new standards, now that was the truth and not your truth.

The rates would have continued to come down the more people signed up. My post shows how insurance rates climbed at a greater rate before Obama care, sorry you don't like the reality of it.

Which dog lies is debatable.

heritage.org,thefreethoughtproject., these sources publish misleading reports and omit reporting of information that may damage liberal causes,another words bias reporting.

buffalo Loc: Texas

More BULLSHIT from dockydoo! What your failing to disclose, dockydoo, is what private, for profit health INSURANCE rates were doing BEFORE the ACA.

"While premiums have been growing, so too has the percentage of plans with deductibles. KFF President and CEO Drew Altman said in a press release on the latest employer survey: “The relatively slow growth in premiums this year is good news for employers and workers, though many workers now pay more when they get sick as deductibles continue to rise and skin-in-the-game insurance gradually becomes the norm.” In 2009, 63 percent of covered workers with single coverage had plans with annual deductibles; in 2014, 80 percent had such plans.

The RNC’s “fact check” goes on to list more figures from the KFF survey, including the accurate statistic that the average premium for single coverage through employers has gone up 28 percent “under Obama” That’s right again, but much lower than the growth of individual premiums during Bush’s first six years. That increase was 72 percent."

http://www.factcheck.org/2015/02/slower-premium-growth-under-obama/

Of course, this is what you get when the monkeys in Congress let their private, for profit health INSURANCE organ grinders dictate US health CARE policy.

Morgan

Thank you for validating what I said, and I still agree with you getting rid of insurance companies altogether and saving money putting our healthcare through the government.

Doc110 Loc: York PA

Morgan,

Obamacare-ACA is a Democratic "Ponzi Scheme . . . You do know what a Ponzi scheme is ?


Your on the wrong side of liberalism "Do-Gooderism."

And yet, still trying to defend the ACA "Affordable Care Act" passed in 2010 by a democrat controlled Congress.

And the deal making was just short of total cronyism, no wait it was unadulterated pure Democratic partizan political cronyism.


Now you want to argue over semantics that Obama didn't lie to the American public.

When he campaigned and push forward from the presidential "Bully-Pulpit" "You can keep your health care" "You can keep your doctor."


Morgan, don't even try to out "Bull-sh-t others liberals on this OPP Forum . . . It's total Bull-sh-t semantics . . . of words . . . Obama Lied . . .and got caught red handed on his national television to the american public.

Obama had his head up his ass apologizing to the American Citizens . . .

Morgan if you laydown with others that have fleas, you're most probably going to have Obama fleas also . . .

Morgan thats how a Ponzi scheme works, it's the "Big Lie" That's why people are not signing up.

The Insurance premium's are $5,000 dollars and more, and the deductible's have increased over 210% since 2010. . .

That's why the The ACA is in a Death Spiral: It is cheeper to pay the ACA penalty

That's 6.5 Million People 30% Choose To Pay Tax Rather Than Buy Obamacare, 113% Average Increase In 4 Years

That's why the American public want the ACA to fail . . . they can't afford the insurance policies . . .

All you are doing is still stroking the liberal democratic dog with lies . . .


Have some more Kool-Aid and join them in the liberal "Troll-Hole.

Next time produce some real fact's . . . Fact's . . . FACT's . . .

Not some made-up fallacy regurgitated liberal Obama mantra BullSh-t . . .

Morgan

The only side I'm on is that of the people, I'm a reasonable person. The right wanted to overturn the ACA for 8 years, they been in FULL control for half the year...still we got noth'n...but time off and excuses, tell me then Dave why do you think that is? Do you think they don't want to rock the boat before this coming midterm, once more settled in and positions have been solidified they'll stick it to the public with a horrendous health plan? That's what I'm anticipating. We're anticipating 1.3 million losing their insurance in NC.

Super Dave Loc: Realville, USA

I think it is because some Republicans are weasels.

John McCain campaign of being the champion of defeating Obamacare. We see how much he meant when he made that campaign promise.

There's a difference between losing insurance and choosing not to buy it after the government takes its boot off your neck and stops forcing you to.

Nobody is turned down from the emergency room.

Doc110 Loc: York PA

Morgan,

My OPP name is Doc110, and not Dave . . .

Reasonable does make you smart, intelligent on facts and learned in Insurance-Medical-care coverage in the United States.

All it means is that you can empathize with the American public with spiraling Healthcare coverage cost's and losing health insurance.


Look, The ACA was a failure upon inception i.e. Hillarycare 1.0, then was forced down the American public throat with Obamacare 2.0.

Which was a fully democratic design and implemented Healthcare that no Congressman and woman even read the bill and existing subsequent law and Obama executive changes.

The U.S. supreme court then ruled the ACA was a tax on all americans's.

Conservative's wanted full repeal of the ACA because the ACA was flawed from it's inception.


The ACA is a Ponzi scheme and a house of cards ready to fall into the abyss.

The ACA could have never worked, it was liberal democratic pipe dream . . . and bad financial CBO reports and accounting.


So now you want to blame Conservatives, and President Trump, for Obama's and the Democrats that put this failed ACA bill and law together.

Where have the Democrats and the left, have tried fix and repair the failing ACA insurance-healthcare.

Pure silence . . . crickets are chirping . . . . Democrats have done nothing to repair the ACA damages . . .

They the democrat are no where to be found except to gloat at there ACA accomplishment go down the toilet in flames . . .

And they the democrats made financial gains through their investments in Healthcare and Insurance Business and stock investments.

Cynicism lies very deep in my mind because that's all the corrupt Democrat's have to offer, on the ACA and Obamacare, which is nothing.


quote=Morgan

The only side I'm on is that of the people, I'm a reasonable person.

The right wanted to overturn the ACA for 8 years, they been in FULL control for half the year...

Still we got noth'n...but time off and excuses, tell me then Dave why do you think that is?

Do you think they don't want to rock the boat before this coming midterm.

Once more settled in and positions have been solidified they'll stick it to the public with a horrendous health plan?

That's what I'm anticipating.

We're anticipating 1.3 million losing their insurance in NC.[/quote]

buffalo Loc: Texas

Medicare for All would not be government health CARE. It would simply be how health CARE is paid for. Health CARE would still be delivered by doctors in private practices or hospitalists and hospitals would still be privately owned.

I do not know why the posters blaming the democrats for the ACA and their profiting from knowing what it would do to health INSURANCE and PHARMA stocks, think that a Republican plan would be anything other than THEIR gift to private, for profit health INSURANCE and do nothing to curb medical costs or ridiculously high premiums. After all, they, like the dems, are also just monkeys for their corporate organ grinders. The idea of health savings accounts is just a tax dodging scheme for the rich and a bad joke for the poor. How many middle class and working poor can save any amount when they are living paycheck to paycheck?

Most of the people who don’t have health insurance, as well as a chunk of those who do don’t have the approximately $2,500 for a single person or $5,000 for a family, cash on hand, to invest in a HSA. And tax breaks for low-income folks aren’t the answer, they are a joke. A trip to the ER with the crowded, hours-long wait time involved for non-life threatening illnesses is the only choice many low-income people have.