Canuckus Deploracus wrote:
Hi Jack...
Glad your wife was ok... I too know the power of prayer... And I believe in miracles...
Please don't get the idea that just because I accept the theory of evolution as true I am not a believer in the Lord our Father...
For me science brings us closer to God... But we each have our own path...
Pretty cool with the earthquake predictions...
I assume they are occurring fairly deep in the crust?
Indonesia have been deeper, I haven't seen any 300 + mile one's today.
Rule of thumb a deep earthquake of 6.0magnitude that is 350 miles deep below the plate, you can add a magnitude . Because it's hammering up on the plate from below the energy will produce 7.0 earthquakes that will spread along the plate like waves spawning earthquakes a equal distances apart. A shallow earthquake does the same except as the earthquakes spread out the gradually lose energy dropping a magnitude.
Example a deep earthquake west of America, in Indonesia will travel along the plate to Alaska, then south to Vancouver, Oregon, California to Texas and accross to Oklahoma, Iowa, Tennessee, up to main. By the time it gets to Southern Oregon /northern California coast (Juan d Fuca plate, just off the coast) it has lost energy down to a 4. 0 and up to a 5 0 then inland california 2.5-3.5, Texas 2 5-3.0 and can spread the lower energy accross the lower states then up to main. Conversely a shallow earthquake with origins in Indonesia, by the time it gets to northern California may be half or less of magnitude or lose energy and lose even more.
Earthquakes are not random. I can draw arrows on a globe of the world and 98%of the time earthquakes will follow the arrows. Also as an example earthquakes always find the thinner parts of the earth's crust. Ancient volcanoes pushed up through thinner areas of the crust or where man has drilled into the crust making perforations or weaknesses in the crust. Geysers california is a good example, ancient volcanoes and near by active volcanoes and man has drilled into the plate at these areas for steam to turn giant turbines that create electricity which can cause swarms or consistent earthquakes.
Forecasting isn't complicated once you understand these principles. These principles the USGS don't accept because they don't understand them, they reject the ability to forecast earthquakes because they can't, yet I randomly picked a few areas for you and with relative accuracy forecast 6 of seven areas within a given time frame and magnitude, still waiting for just one. Alaska is now on my watch list. Any given day I forecast earthquakes in 10-15 locations around the world and give watches to others for earthquakes in America.
It's good to have a go bag near your exit (not in a closet) the earth has been increasing earthquakes in frequency and magnitude over the last 20 years by about 2000 percent with the greater increase the last decade. Have water, cash, protein bars, keep the gas tank full, medications, and a place to go a few hundred miles away from cities in the event your in an area where large earthquakes could go off. I have several places other than state parks or national forest because in a really big event I'm not going to be a victim in a fena camp like those that did become victims of hurricanes and were not prepared for worse case seneros.
Which state do you live in, north, south, east or west
Western Oregon as an example would be cause to relocate.... Quickly. At any time a 9.0 - 10. 2 could let loose meaning from North of Seattle to Northern California anything west of interstate 5 is toast. Two factors with the first from 10 to 15 minutes of violent shaking, second a 100 - 500 foot high wall of water from the ensuing tsunami.
I'm more cautious in volcano forecasting because of limited understanding but with a lessor degree of accuracy do forecast them. If they were as frequent as earthquakes it would be easier for me to see patterns. With that said the U S. Is becoming more active and depending on where you live, you may or may not be at risk with the highest risk being ash fall unless your in blast range. Fortunately we have a great deal more notice of an eruption than we do an earthquake. For some it may be wise to relocate while property values are high.
Speaking of property value. The usgs is hiding earthquakes by not reporting them off the coast of Oregon and inland Oregon. The only time they will report them is if they are in higher population areas and a magnitude high enough that a high population would notice them. It's the governments way of not causing panic and crashing land values or local economies. This i can prove... The usgs is scandalous