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May 13, 2022 14:55:57   #
manning5 Loc: Richmond, VA
 
Threats

1. China
1.a. Taiwan
1.b. Asia Neighbors
1.c. South China Sea
1.d. USA Purchases
1.e. Spying and stealing
1.f. Nuclear War
2. Russia
2.a. Ukraine
2.b. Moldovia
2.c. Baltic States
2.d. Eastern Europe
2.e. Nuclear War
3. Iran
3.a. Iraq
3.b. Kuwait
3.c. Saudi Arabia
3.d. Nuclear War
4. North Korea
4.a. South Korea
4.b. Japan
4.c. Nuclear War

Common threads seem to be the threat of, or the actual execution of conventional wars of aggression, under the umbrella threat of nuclear war if other nations, especially the US, try to interfere.

The use of tactical nuclear warheads is their preferred method employment to begin with, since these bombs are limited in their destruction area. If we meet this threat with our own tactical weapons, or if we continue to interfere conventionally, then it is possible that these nuclear powers will strike us on our homeland with the highest power weapons they have, despite the strong convention of Mutually Assured Destruction (MAD) that hinders them.

One scenario is that of hitting just one of our cities, reckoning that our response will be to take out one of theirs. This will obviously ratchet up until we have a full exchange of nuclear weapons. Or, we will cave in. As many have shown, this will eventually end most human life on this planet through radiation clouds roaming the earth, and blocking the sun for long periods, thus spoiling many crops worldwide.

So, do we allow these aggressors to succeed because of this nuclear blackmail?

The Ukraine is currently providing an alternate route: support the nation in their fight to repel the aggressor. But what about Taiwan, that has no neighbors to funnel war material to them except by sea or air which are both quite vulnerable to attack?

The logistics of supporting Taiwan during a war with China would be highly difficult and costly in men, material, and money, but not impossible. We did similar logistic feats in both the South Korean and Vietnamese conflicts.

In the case of Taiwan versus China, there is a significant difference:
China is a very strong power militarily, and is enlarging and improving its training and weaponry every year, while we are not doing as well, I believe.

Obviously, China can resort to large quantities of good-enough weapons, rather than super high-tech weapons to overwhelm Taiwan. Their naval fleet is capable now of of forming a blockade of Taiwan that would require significant battles to dislodge.

Currently. The US has a No First Use policy for nuclear weapons. So under that rule, we cannot threaten China with a nuclear response to their invasion of Taiwan, while they are free to threaten us with a nuclear response if we come to the aid of Taiwan.

We are doing quite a lot to shore up the Taiwanese military, and showing the Chinese considerable might in the area that could be used against them if they tried to invade Taiwan. This will continue, I believe.

But the key question is, will we come to the aid of the
Taiwanese if China attacks them, and does threaten us with a nuclear response if we do join the fray?

The only answer I can come up with is: it depends.

Reply
May 13, 2022 15:16:33   #
LogicallyRight Loc: Chicago
 
manning5 wrote:
Threats

1. China
1.a. Taiwan
1.b. Asia Neighbors
1.c. South China Sea
1.d. USA Purchases
1.e. Spying and stealing
1.f. Nuclear War
2. Russia
2.a. Ukraine
2.b. Moldovia
2.c. Baltic States
2.d. Eastern Europe
2.e. Nuclear War
3. Iran
3.a. Iraq
3.b. Kuwait
3.c. Saudi Arabia
3.d. Nuclear War
4. North Korea
4.a. South Korea
4.b. Japan
4.c. Nuclear War

Common threads seem to be the threat of, or the actual execution of conventional wars of aggression, under the umbrella threat of nuclear war if other nations, especially the US, try to interfere.

The use of tactical nuclear warheads is their preferred method employment to begin with, since these bombs are limited in their destruction area. If we meet this threat with our own tactical weapons, or if we continue to interfere conventionally, then it is possible that these nuclear powers will strike us on our homeland with the highest power weapons they have, despite the strong convention of Mutually Assured Destruction (MAD) that hinders them.

One scenario is that of hitting just one of our cities, reckoning that our response will be to take out one of theirs. This will obviously ratchet up until we have a full exchange of nuclear weapons. Or, we will cave in. As many have shown, this will eventually end most human life on this planet through radiation clouds roaming the earth, and blocking the sun for long periods, thus spoiling many crops worldwide.

So, do we allow these aggressors to succeed because of this nuclear blackmail?

The Ukraine is currently providing an alternate route: support the nation in their fight to repel the aggressor. But what about Taiwan, that has no neighbors to funnel war material to them except by sea or air which are both quite vulnerable to attack?

The logistics of supporting Taiwan during a war with China would be highly difficult and costly in men, material, and money, but not impossible. We did similar logistic feats in both the South Korean and Vietnamese conflicts.

In the case of Taiwan versus China, there is a significant difference:
China is a very strong power militarily, and is enlarging and improving its training and weaponry every year, while we are not doing as well, I believe.

Obviously, China can resort to large quantities of good-enough weapons, rather than super high-tech weapons to overwhelm Taiwan. Their naval fleet is capable now of of forming a blockade of Taiwan that would require significant battles to dislodge.

Currently. The US has a No First Use policy for nuclear weapons. So under that rule, we cannot threaten China with a nuclear response to their invasion of Taiwan, while they are free to threaten us with a nuclear response if we come to the aid of Taiwan.

We are doing quite a lot to shore up the Taiwanese military, and showing the Chinese considerable might in the area that could be used against them if they tried to invade Taiwan. This will continue, I believe.

But the key question is, will we come to the aid of the
Taiwanese if China attacks them, and does threaten us with a nuclear response if we do join the fray?

The only answer I can come up with is: it depends.
Threats br br 1. China br 1.a. Taiwan br 1.b. Asi... (show quote)


***The only answer I can come up with is: it depends.
>>>Unfortunately is depends on the man in Depends.

Reply
May 13, 2022 16:18:21   #
manning5 Loc: Richmond, VA
 
LogicallyRight wrote:
***The only answer I can come up with is: it depends.
>>>Unfortunately is depends on the man in Depends.


Good one!

Reply
 
 
May 13, 2022 19:34:31   #
Canuckus Deploracus Loc: North of the wall
 
manning5 wrote:
Threats

1. China
1.a. Taiwan
1.b. Asia Neighbors
1.c. South China Sea
1.d. USA Purchases
1.e. Spying and stealing
1.f. Nuclear War
2. Russia
2.a. Ukraine
2.b. Moldovia
2.c. Baltic States
2.d. Eastern Europe
2.e. Nuclear War
3. Iran
3.a. Iraq
3.b. Kuwait
3.c. Saudi Arabia
3.d. Nuclear War
4. North Korea
4.a. South Korea
4.b. Japan
4.c. Nuclear War

Common threads seem to be the threat of, or the actual execution of conventional wars of aggression, under the umbrella threat of nuclear war if other nations, especially the US, try to interfere.

The use of tactical nuclear warheads is their preferred method employment to begin with, since these bombs are limited in their destruction area. If we meet this threat with our own tactical weapons, or if we continue to interfere conventionally, then it is possible that these nuclear powers will strike us on our homeland with the highest power weapons they have, despite the strong convention of Mutually Assured Destruction (MAD) that hinders them.

One scenario is that of hitting just one of our cities, reckoning that our response will be to take out one of theirs. This will obviously ratchet up until we have a full exchange of nuclear weapons. Or, we will cave in. As many have shown, this will eventually end most human life on this planet through radiation clouds roaming the earth, and blocking the sun for long periods, thus spoiling many crops worldwide.

So, do we allow these aggressors to succeed because of this nuclear blackmail?

The Ukraine is currently providing an alternate route: support the nation in their fight to repel the aggressor. But what about Taiwan, that has no neighbors to funnel war material to them except by sea or air which are both quite vulnerable to attack?

The logistics of supporting Taiwan during a war with China would be highly difficult and costly in men, material, and money, but not impossible. We did similar logistic feats in both the South Korean and Vietnamese conflicts.

In the case of Taiwan versus China, there is a significant difference:
China is a very strong power militarily, and is enlarging and improving its training and weaponry every year, while we are not doing as well, I believe.

Obviously, China can resort to large quantities of good-enough weapons, rather than super high-tech weapons to overwhelm Taiwan. Their naval fleet is capable now of of forming a blockade of Taiwan that would require significant battles to dislodge.

Currently. The US has a No First Use policy for nuclear weapons. So under that rule, we cannot threaten China with a nuclear response to their invasion of Taiwan, while they are free to threaten us with a nuclear response if we come to the aid of Taiwan.

We are doing quite a lot to shore up the Taiwanese military, and showing the Chinese considerable might in the area that could be used against them if they tried to invade Taiwan. This will continue, I believe.

But the key question is, will we come to the aid of the
Taiwanese if China attacks them, and does threaten us with a nuclear response if we do join the fray?

The only answer I can come up with is: it depends.
Threats br br 1. China br 1.a. Taiwan br 1.b. Asi... (show quote)


You left out Iran's threat to Israel...

If China reclaims its wayward province, only a nation bent on suicide would interfere...

We're talking about a piece of real estate that has belonged to China for centuries... And a policy put in place by the US and other Western powers that proclaims Taiwan is an inalienable part of China... (That idea sure came back to bite us in the ass)

On top of that, there's no real reason to aid the Taiwanese... Western interests are in no way threatened....

But the economic repercussions of fighting China would make the current inflation and black of goods look like a walk in the park...

The eagle should be wary lest his wings be singed when the dragon awakes...

Reply
May 13, 2022 19:49:55   #
RascalRiley Loc: Ontario
 
Canuckus Deploracus wrote:
You left out Iran's threat to Israel...

If China reclaims its wayward province, only a nation bent on suicide would interfere...

We're talking about a piece of real estate that has belonged to China for centuries... And a policy put in place by the US and other Western powers that proclaims Taiwan is an inalienable part of China... (That idea sure came back to bite us in the ass)

On top of that, there's no real reason to aid the Taiwanese... Western interests are in no way threatened....

But the economic repercussions of fighting China would make the current inflation and black of goods look like a walk in the park...

The eagle should be wary lest his wings be singed when the dragon awakes...
You left out Iran's threat to Israel... br br If... (show quote)

But who is influencing the decisions makers? People who profit from war. Shareholders, lobbyists, representatives etc.

Reply
May 13, 2022 20:28:50   #
manning5 Loc: Richmond, VA
 
RascalRiley wrote:
But who is influencing the decisions makers? People who profit from war. Shareholders, lobbyists, representatives etc.



"If China reclaims its wayward province, only a nation bent on suicide would interfere..."

Hence my feeling that the world is doomed. If China throws many nuclear weapons at us, we have the means to obliterate every single city, town and village in China, plus forming a north-south line of nuke explosives that would guarantee the deaths by radiation, sweeping West to East, of most of the population. China would be no more, just as we would be no more. Is China willing to risk that, if we help Taiwan? If the answer is yes, I am beginning my doomsday prayers.

I believe it is quite likely that someone will call the Chinese bluff and go to war beside Taiwan.

Reply
May 13, 2022 20:56:38   #
Canuckus Deploracus Loc: North of the wall
 
RascalRiley wrote:
But who is influencing the decisions makers? People who profit from war. Shareholders, lobbyists, representatives etc.


Of course...

Western oligarchs..

Reply
 
 
May 13, 2022 20:57:55   #
Canuckus Deploracus Loc: North of the wall
 
manning5 wrote:
"If China reclaims its wayward province, only a nation bent on suicide would interfere..."

Hence my feeling that the world is doomed. If China throws many nuclear weapons at us, we have the means to obliterate every single city, town and village in China, plus forming a north-south line of nuke explosives that would guarantee the deaths by radiation, sweeping West to East, of most of the population. China would be no more, just as we would be no more. Is China willing to risk that, if we help Taiwan? If the answer is yes, I am beginning my doomsday prayers.

I believe it is quite likely that someone will call the Chinese bluff and go to war beside Taiwan.
"If China reclaims its wayward province, only... (show quote)


China won't invade Taiwan...

They'll continue to isolate it then simply move in...

What nation do you see going to war over it????

Reply
May 14, 2022 15:17:13   #
MidnightRider
 
manning5 wrote:
Threats

1. China
1.a. Taiwan
1.b. Asia Neighbors
1.c. South China Sea
1.d. USA Purchases
1.e. Spying and stealing
1.f. Nuclear War
2. Russia
2.a. Ukraine
2.b. Moldovia
2.c. Baltic States
2.d. Eastern Europe
2.e. Nuclear War
3. Iran
3.a. Iraq
3.b. Kuwait
3.c. Saudi Arabia
3.d. Nuclear War
4. North Korea
4.a. South Korea
4.b. Japan
4.c. Nuclear War

Common threads seem to be the threat of, or the actual execution of conventional wars of aggression, under the umbrella threat of nuclear war if other nations, especially the US, try to interfere.

The use of tactical nuclear warheads is their preferred method employment to begin with, since these bombs are limited in their destruction area. If we meet this threat with our own tactical weapons, or if we continue to interfere conventionally, then it is possible that these nuclear powers will strike us on our homeland with the highest power weapons they have, despite the strong convention of Mutually Assured Destruction (MAD) that hinders them.

One scenario is that of hitting just one of our cities, reckoning that our response will be to take out one of theirs. This will obviously ratchet up until we have a full exchange of nuclear weapons. Or, we will cave in. As many have shown, this will eventually end most human life on this planet through radiation clouds roaming the earth, and blocking the sun for long periods, thus spoiling many crops worldwide.

So, do we allow these aggressors to succeed because of this nuclear blackmail?

The Ukraine is currently providing an alternate route: support the nation in their fight to repel the aggressor. But what about Taiwan, that has no neighbors to funnel war material to them except by sea or air which are both quite vulnerable to attack?

The logistics of supporting Taiwan during a war with China would be highly difficult and costly in men, material, and money, but not impossible. We did similar logistic feats in both the South Korean and Vietnamese conflicts.

In the case of Taiwan versus China, there is a significant difference:
China is a very strong power militarily, and is enlarging and improving its training and weaponry every year, while we are not doing as well, I believe.

Obviously, China can resort to large quantities of good-enough weapons, rather than super high-tech weapons to overwhelm Taiwan. Their naval fleet is capable now of of forming a blockade of Taiwan that would require significant battles to dislodge.

Currently. The US has a No First Use policy for nuclear weapons. So under that rule, we cannot threaten China with a nuclear response to their invasion of Taiwan, while they are free to threaten us with a nuclear response if we come to the aid of Taiwan.

We are doing quite a lot to shore up the Taiwanese military, and showing the Chinese considerable might in the area that could be used against them if they tried to invade Taiwan. This will continue, I believe.

But the key question is, will we come to the aid of the
Taiwanese if China attacks them, and does threaten us with a nuclear response if we do join the fray?

The only answer I can come up with is: it depends.
Threats br br 1. China br 1.a. Taiwan br 1.b. Asi... (show quote)


I'm not even worried about that, my philosophy (one of them) you live until you die. Now, whoever uses nuclear weapons dooms the earth. The fallout will last for centuries, we'll wake up (best scenario) with a daily migraine-I already do. Masks will then serve a purpose, but only if you are near silt. Shmutz from fallout. It's the size of sand, actually you can just keep your mouth closed and no need for the mask. That's the very beginning.

Reply
May 14, 2022 18:40:01   #
manning5 Loc: Richmond, VA
 
Canuckus Deploracus wrote:
China won't invade Taiwan...

They'll continue to isolate it then simply move in...

What nation do you see going to war over it????


The US, Australia, the UK, New Zealand. Japan. The Philippines, Canada, France, Germany, Italy, the Netherlands, Belgium, Saudi Arabia, Israel, Norway, Sweden. Denmark, India, South Korea, and a few other stragglers.

It is not necessarily in the strategic interest of all these nations at the moment, but the aggression of China must be stopped cold, and that is their motivation. The argument that China claims Taiwan as a province by historical precedent will be ignored in favor of Taiwan's independence for the last 80 or so years.

Many world nations are extremely concerned by China's more aggressive stances, not only at Taiwan, but also at India, and at the South China Sea control issues and militarization. China will have to fight the world sooner or later, and this appears to be the first opportunity for the rest of the world to stand up and stop them.

The US would provide the bulk of the military power, but EU/NATO nations would be supporting, as well as Asian nations not happy with China.

If China chooses to use their nukes, so will the US, and the world will die with a whimper.

It is my understanding that we have at least three Ohio class subs well within range of all of China.
They each carry 24 missiles with multiple reentry targetable warheads of much greater power than the Hiroshima type. For these three subs, over 864 targets can be attacked nearly simultaneously. The Chinese are well aware of our capabilities for nuclear war in a second-strike mode.

US officials are beginning to conclude that the US cannot stand by and have nations gobbled up by aggressors using the threat of nuclear war as a cover to prevent support of their target nation.
I will bet that Taiwan support will be forthcoming from the US and allies, and China's bluff will be called. If China tries to starve Taiwan out, or blockade them, this is where we would begin to interfere with naval and air power.

Reply
May 14, 2022 19:44:25   #
Canuckus Deploracus Loc: North of the wall
 
manning5 wrote:
The US, Australia, the UK, New Zealand. Japan. The Philippines, Canada, France, Germany, Italy, the Netherlands, Belgium, Saudi Arabia, Israel, Norway, Sweden. Denmark, India, South Korea, and a few other stragglers.

It is not necessarily in the strategic interest of all these nations at the moment, but the aggression of China must be stopped cold, and that is their motivation. The argument that China claims Taiwan as a province by historical precedent will be ignored in favor of Taiwan's independence for the last 80 or so years.

Many world nations are extremely concerned by China's more aggressive stances, not only at Taiwan, but also at India, and at the South China Sea control issues and militarization. China will have to fight the world sooner or later, and this appears to be the first opportunity for the rest of the world to stand up and stop them.

The US would provide the bulk of the military power, but EU/NATO nations would be supporting, as well as Asian nations not happy with China.

If China chooses to use their nukes, so will the US, and the world will die with a whimper.

It is my understanding that we have at least three Ohio class subs well within range of all of China.
They each carry 24 missiles with multiple reentry targetable warheads of much greater power than the Hiroshima type. For these three subs, over 864 targets can be attacked nearly simultaneously. The Chinese are well aware of our capabilities for nuclear war in a second-strike mode.

US officials are beginning to conclude that the US cannot stand by and have nations gobbled up by aggressors using the threat of nuclear war as a cover to prevent support of their target nation.
I will bet that Taiwan support will be forthcoming from the US and allies, and China's bluff will be called. If China tries to starve Taiwan out, or blockade them, this is where we would begin to interfere with naval and air power.
The US, Australia, the UK, New Zealand. Japan. The... (show quote)


All of the nations you listed officially recognize Taiwan as a part of China...

There are only a handful of nations left that still recognize Taiwan as an independent nation...

When they capitulate to Chinese pressure it will be over for Taiwan...

The US, for all its bluster, will not engage with an actual military power on behalf of third world entity like Taiwan...Especially as it would devastate the US economy...

Unlike the US, China has been seeking out new trade partners these past decades... With alliances like BRICS, BRI, TPP, and the numerous investments in Africa and South America, China can afford to cut off trade with the US...

America is losing its international credit on a daily basis... And old grudges have not been forgotten...

Reply
 
 
May 14, 2022 20:04:20   #
manning5 Loc: Richmond, VA
 
Canuckus Deploracus wrote:
All of the nations you listed officially recognize Taiwan as a part of China...

There are only a handful of nations left that still recognize Taiwan as an independent nation...

When they capitulate to Chinese pressure it will be over for Taiwan...

The US, for all its bluster, will not engage with an actual military power on behalf of third world entity like Taiwan...Especially as it would devastate the US economy...

Unlike the US, China has been seeking out new trade partners these past decades... With alliances like BRICS, BRI, TPP, and the numerous investments in Africa and South America, China can afford to cut off trade with the US...

America is losing its international credit on a daily basis... And old grudges have not been forgotten...
All of the nations you listed officially recognize... (show quote)


There is an old adage: circumstances alter cases. Pieces of paper can be shredded easily, however unfortunate that may be. Realpolitik goes with power, and the collective West has power, lots of it. If the conclusion is that China has gotten out of line with their power and aggressive tendencies, then there will be a rethink of a lot of paper that limits the powers of the West. Yes, Taiwan is remote, and yes, China is strong. But US military power is not to be underestimated, and the allies multiply that power. As long as China does not invade or blockade Taiwan, we are in a safe zone of sorts, but we will be vigilant.

That you promote the windy side of China is tragic. There is another old saying: Those who reap the wind, will inevitably reap the whirlwind.

You know, it was WWII that brought the US out of depression and into a strong economy, despite sending over ten million men into the military and building a massive war machine and fighting all around the world. Yes, we go to war with what we have, but we would rather quickly out-produce any other country with war material should we have the need. A Conventional war with China just might be a shot in the arm for the American economy, so long as we do not try to invade them, just use air and naval power. It would be a pity: I love Chinese food. I do not like aggressor nations.

Reply
May 14, 2022 21:24:55   #
manning5 Loc: Richmond, VA
 
manning5 wrote:
There is an old adage: circumstances alter cases. Pieces of paper can be shredded easily, however unfortunate that may be. Realpolitik goes with power, and the collective West has power, lots of it. If the conclusion is that China has gotten out of line with their power and aggressive tendencies, then there will be a rethink of a lot of paper that limits the powers of the West. Yes, Taiwan is remote, and yes, China is strong. But US military power is not to be underestimated, and the allies multiply that power. As long as China does not invade or blockade Taiwan, we are in a safe zone of sorts, but we will be vigilant.

That you promote the windy side of China is tragic. There is another old saying: Those who reap the wind, will inevitably reap the whirlwind.

You know, it was WWII that brought the US out of depression and into a strong economy, despite sending over ten million men into the military and building a massive war machine and fighting all around the world. Yes, we go to war with what we have, but we would rather quickly out-produce any other country with war material should we have the need. A Conventional war with China just might be a shot in the arm for the American economy, so long as we do not try to invade them, just use air and naval power. It would be a pity: I love Chinese food. I do not like aggressor nations.
There is an old adage: circumstances alter cases. ... (show quote)



Yes, most of the powerful nations have not recognized Taiwan as a sovereign nation, but most of them have established trade relations with the Taiwanese government. Some have flipped back and forth. so, it is not unreasonable that, for cause, the main nations I cited would become allies of the US in any fight over Taiwan.

I do hope it never comes to this, war is a terrible thing, and it has gotten far more so lately. With Biden in the presidency, all bets are off! Who knows what they would do in this instance. As I said before, it depends... My guess is that Biden would cave, while Trump would be strong.
. That makes the issue hot for the next few years.

Reply
May 14, 2022 22:15:30   #
Canuckus Deploracus Loc: North of the wall
 
manning5 wrote:
There is an old adage: circumstances alter cases. Pieces of paper can be shredded easily, however unfortunate that may be. Realpolitik goes with power, and the collective West has power, lots of it. If the conclusion is that China has gotten out of line with their power and aggressive tendencies, then there will be a rethink of a lot of paper that limits the powers of the West. Yes, Taiwan is remote, and yes, China is strong. But US military power is not to be underestimated, and the allies multiply that power. As long as China does not invade or blockade Taiwan, we are in a safe zone of sorts, but we will be vigilant.

That you promote the windy side of China is tragic. There is another old saying: Those who reap the wind, will inevitably reap the whirlwind.

You know, it was WWII that brought the US out of depression and into a strong economy, despite sending over ten million men into the military and building a massive war machine and fighting all around the world. Yes, we go to war with what we have, but we would rather quickly out-produce any other country with war material should we have the need. A Conventional war with China just might be a shot in the arm for the American economy, so long as we do not try to invade them, just use air and naval power. It would be a pity: I love Chinese food. I do not like aggressor nations.
There is an old adage: circumstances alter cases. ... (show quote)


I always get a chuckle when Westerners tell me how aggressive China is... It shows a clear disconnect with reality...

I am curious how you think the US would convince the younger generation to forgo the lifestyle they enjoy and make sacrifices to fight for a nation that in no way affects them???

Reply
May 15, 2022 05:49:26   #
nonalien1 Loc: Mojave Desert
 
Canuckus Deploracus wrote:
I always get a chuckle when Westerners tell me how aggressive China is... It shows a clear disconnect with reality...

I am curious how you think the US would convince the younger generation to forgo the lifestyle they enjoy and make sacrifices to fight for a nation that in no way affects them???



They got a lot of the younger Americans all hung ho for Ukraine. A worthless piece of property as far as US is concerned. I hope America has more sense then to poke a sleeping dragon. Especially when they have the home field advantage. China is flexing it's muscles in the south china seas but I think it's just to provoke and intimidate us.. I think it's time for the US to quit trying to be the world s police. Just build up strong at home . We've already given Ukraine a big part of our reserves

Reply
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