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Thank you for the fires GOP!
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Sep 15, 2020 14:56:14   #
RandyBrian Loc: Texas
 
straightUp wrote:
Thanks for the data Randy. As we can see, the temperature *IS* increasing. But I don't think anyone is arguing that point anymore, right? The debate now seems to have shifted to "well yeah, g****l w*****g is real but is it anthropogenic?"

Still, I want to point something out in your data that I think is important to understand...

Look at the differences from one decade to the next... I'll draw it out for you... here's the same data converted to expressions of percentage increase from one decade to the next.


1880s 0%
1890s 0.05%
1900s -0.02%
1910s -0.05%
1920s 0.33%
1930s 0.40%
1940s 0.24%
1950s -0.17%
1960s 0.03%
1970s 0.03%
1980s 0.03%
1990s 0.56%
2000s 0.62%


From here we can get the sum totals...
Total increase: 2.70%
Total decrease: -0.25%
Total difference: 2.45%

But the real significance isn't just that temperatures have increased by 2.45% it's the WAY it's increasing. The temperature increase for the last two decades in the dataset is significantly higher than any of the previous decades indicating an increase in the rate of acceleration.

Did you see that when you looked at that data before you posted it? I know, a lot of people glance at the numbers and see two things... The numbers appear small and there are decreases as well as increases. That makes it easy to think of the data as nominal, but when you look closer and find patterns you find more significance.

BTW, the last decade is missing from your dataset so I'm going to add it to see if that makes things more obvious. I can't find the average global mean temperature for the 2010 decade, so I will have to calculate that myself using the annual reports from NOAA.

And here it is...

Decade °F Change
2010s 58.52 0.69%


Yup, still going up and it IS accelerating... exponentially. The total increase from 1880 to 2019 is 3.38%, minus the total decrease, we're at 3.14%. So now let's look at the running totals.


1880s 0%
1890s 0.05%
1900s 0.04%
1910s -0.02%
1920s 0.32%
1930s 0.72%
1940s 0.96%
1950s 0.79%
1960s 0.82%
1970s 0.86%
1980s 1.41%
1990s 1.83%
2000s 2.45%
2010s 3.14%


Now are you starting to see the picture? This is still coming from the data you provided. But now we can see that it took 100 years to see an increase of at least 1%. The very next decade it was already past 2% and one decade later we're past 3%.

This is what Al Gore was referring to with his hockey stick analogy. He wasn't wrong. Your data proves it.

Still not alarmed? Is that because a mean temperature of 58'F really doesn't seem like a big deal, especially since it took 140 years to get there from 56'F?

A few more things to explain then...

1. The median global temperature is the mid-point between the extremes across many different climates, not all of which are affected equally. So a 2% increase in the median temperature could mean the temperature drops by 2% in some climates and increases by 4% in others.

2. It's not a simple matter of how the temperature feels when you walk outside. There are certain thresholds in the spectrum where a 1 degree change makes all the difference. For instance, water is frozen into solid ice at 32'F. At 33'F it melts into liquid water. Different liquids have various, specific boiling points.

So, elements CAN be affected by a 1 degree change, which means all the complex systems built on top of them can also be affected by a 1 degree change, including weather systems, food chains, malaria zones... all kinds of stuff and the repercussions go far and wide, like how a 2% increase in global mean temp causes prolonged droughts and record-breaking heat in the westerns states which creates more flammable material in the underbrush which feeds more intense fires, which k**ls more people.
Thanks for the data Randy. As we can see, the temp... (show quote)


Good data. Thank you.

Reply
Sep 15, 2020 15:03:02   #
straightUp Loc: California
 
Rose42 wrote:

straightUp wrote:

That's why I asked you to explain your accusation but it seems you can't.

I did with an analogy. Its simple.

What analogy? And how do you measure someone's intellectual integrity with an analogy anyway? That doesn't even make sense.

Rose42 wrote:

No you don't have integrity. Your OP shows that and your continued inane defense of it. And you make far too many assumptions.

So it's not that I lack integrity, it's that you don't agree with my argument. Or is there no difference as far as you're concerned? Agreeing with you... it that what integrity means, Rose?

And since you think I'm making too many assumptions you should be able to point to at least one of them right? Can you do that?

Rose42 wrote:

straightUp wrote:

Neither of us know how many of those a******ns were for "convenience".

You can check the Guttmacher Institute for an estimate. Some consider theirs on the low side.

Two things... I know for a fact that patients are not asked whether they planned the a******n out of convenience and just the fact that you said, "some consider theirs on the low side" proves the statistics are not factual. What you have are guesses and the more prejudice the person, the higher the guess is going to be.

"But hey, conditions were sterile!"
"Yes, so the mothers don't get infected. Dugh!"
"Lets give out needles to druggies so they're sterile. That's a stupid argument too."

So... are we still talking about whether to blame Republicans for the fires? 'Cause it seems like you're just ranting about liberals in general.

Rose42 wrote:

straightUp wrote:

Because of the right, we have the crappiest AND most expensive healthcare system in the developed world, the crappiest education system in the developed world, the most gun violence (per capita) in the developed world, the worst water quality in the developed world... I mean, the list goes on and on.

And you believe you think for yourself. I see talking points.

And why wouldn't you? These are big problems so lots of people talk about them. I'm not a Republican Rose, to me a talking point isn't a script provided by my thought leaders. A talking point is an issue over which people can engage with their own thoughts. See the difference?

Rose42 wrote:

K*****g innocent life is amoral. A******n isn't mercy k*****g that's ridiculous.

I don't think it's ridiculous at all, you just don't agree. If it wasn't for family planning and the option to abort legally, many of those embryos terminated in the first trimester, would develop into later term fetuses and be aborted then. Many more would be born to parents that can't provide for them, or that wind up resenting them. Others would be born with defects that guarantee a torturous childhood and a hopeless life. More would be born with drug addictions because the mother is on drugs. If Republicans got their way, there would be an over abundance of neglected and abused children growing into criminals and psychopaths. For these poor souls, being terminated as an embryo would save them from a life of misery. Mercy.

Rose42 wrote:
And you are still v****g for evil and patting yourself on the back for it. You're running with the herd.

The *lesser* evil (assuming there is any evil in Biden, which I really don't see) And you can't v**e for ANY candidate without running with one herd or another, Rose. I mean, seriously - think about it.

Reply
Sep 15, 2020 15:03:32   #
straightUp Loc: California
 
RandyBrian wrote:
Good data. Thank you.


Reply
 
 
Sep 15, 2020 15:29:35   #
straightUp Loc: California
 
eagleye13 wrote:
"C*****e c****e is a natural occurring event.. G****l w*****g if you wish, being the same as c*****e c****e is also a natural occurring event.

NOT the same! G****l w*****g is a singular condition involving the entire planet that CAUSES a multitude of regional c*****e c****es. Clearly not the same thing. And yes, it's natural for g****l w*****g to occur periodically but what makes you think that means it can't also be started anthropogenically? Grass is natural too - I don't see that stopping people from growing it.

eagleye13 wrote:

CO2 is needed just as much as the left c*****e c****e scare tactic people want to claim is so bad.."

I can't believe after all these years, you're still stuck on these 3rd grade assertions. Yes, CO2 is needed just like a houseplant needs water. But what happens when you OVER water a houseplant? Oh, did it die? But I thought the plants need water - sooo confusing.

Ha, ha, ha!

eagleye13 wrote:

It seems liberals are incapable or unwilling to think things through.

I dunno bro - Look at my last response to your half-baked assertion that g****l w*****g isn't anthropogenic because it's natural... I had to finish the thought process for you to get to the point that you didn't see because you stopped short.

eagleye13 wrote:

BTW; Are you aware that some people still think Lee Harvey Oswald assassinated JFK?
www.orwelltoday.com/jfkoswaldmagicroute.shtml

Well, that's relevant - LOL

Reply
Sep 15, 2020 15:34:57   #
straightUp Loc: California
 
eagleye13 wrote:
If you had your way, Bacarruda; the USA would still be dependent on OPEC for our energy needs.

What do you think we would be paying for Gasoline and electricity?

Does it matter?

If liberals in general had their way, we wouldn't just be less dependent on oil from OPEC we would be less dependent on oil PERIOD!

Reply
Sep 15, 2020 16:26:02   #
America 1 Loc: South Miami
 
straightUp wrote:
If liberals in general had their way, we wouldn't just be less dependent on oil from OPEC we would be less dependent on oil PERIOD!


That is a stretch, where is it you pull out this BS.

Reply
Sep 15, 2020 16:51:13   #
straightUp Loc: California
 
EmilyD wrote:
You say we should slow it down since it's too late to avoid it, but WHAT are you suggesting that we do to buy time to figure this problem out?

Curb emissions. The same thing the scientists are suggesting. It's really the ONLY thing we know how to do that stands a chance of slowing the process down. Think of it this way. We're in a car going down the highway at 60 mph and we have no brakes. We need to think about how to avoid a crash. So do we keep our foot down on the gas pedal so we can go even faster?

EmilyD wrote:

And I just want to say that blaming Republicans because the magnitude of fires in California are greater now than ever before just plain sounds weak. IF the G****l C*****g/G****l W*****g/C*****e C****e problem has been growing exponentially every year for many years, I seriously doubt that it is now (or has been in the past) only Republicans that are responsible.

OK, here's the thing... We can blame the entire human race for playing a role going all the way back to the start of the industrial revolution. For most of that time we simply didn't know that what we were doing was having this impact. We really didn't know until science caught up in the later half of the 20th century and that's when we had a chance to correct the problem. But how? Well, if emissions are causing the problem it makes sense to cut back emissions to a level that doesn't upset the natural balance, right? Kind of a no-brainer. But industries didn't want to because it cut into their profits. So, the people (at least the liberals anyway) asked the government to force industries to cut emissions, because saving the world from g****l w*****g seemed a little more important than the investment returns of a handful of people in the top 1%. But those investors have friends in the government (indeed, in both main parties). As it turn out it was the Republican Party that provided consistent opposition to those regulations.

So even if you can't blame a doctor for a patient GETTING a disease, but what if the patient dies because of the doctor's misdiagnosis? No, the Republicans were not alone in creating the problem, but they ARE alone in stopping the efforts everyone else made to correct the problem before it was too late. So there's the core of my argument.

EmilyD wrote:

And just because a Republican happens to be in office this year does not make him culpable for all years past and all past Republicans that have allegedly led humanity to where it is today with regard to climate-related problems.

I never said Trump was responsible I said the GOP is.

EmilyD wrote:

A Democrat, who was in complete agreement with you about man-made climate problems, did not seem to be able to accomplish much in the way of solutions for the California fires during the eight years of his administration, if the fires got larger and larger...

Well, this is where you need to understand the latency between policy and its environmental impact. Depending on conditions it can take years. Obama did everything he could do to regulate industry and a lot of what he did was not implemented right away so as to give industry a few years to adapt. I guess we'll never see the benefit because Trump reversed it all.

Reply
 
 
Sep 15, 2020 17:01:26   #
straightUp Loc: California
 
America 1 wrote:
That is a stretch, where is it you pull out this BS.

From the v****g records. Also from my recollection of environmental issues over the years.

Reply
Sep 15, 2020 17:06:27   #
America 1 Loc: South Miami
 
straightUp wrote:
From the v****g records. Also from my recollection of environmental issues over the years.


In other words pulling nonsense from your backside.

Reply
Sep 15, 2020 17:13:19   #
Cuda2020
 
RandyBrian wrote:
Not against it. To repeat myself:
Neither wind nor solar are viable yet. Someday I hope they will be, but not yet.
I am all for alternate energy. Let's invest the money, develop it to functionality and affordability, and start using it. Let's get rid of using f****l f**ls for power generation, and reserve it for plastics and other non-polluting uses. But let's NOT put the horse before the cart. Functional and affordable FIRST.


Not available yet, you lost me on that one, its being used all over the place and creating a lot of new jobs. But we agree on the rest. Here's an informative, non political site, just some info
http://www.awea.org/wind-101/basics-of-wind-energy/wind-facts-at-a-glance

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Sep 15, 2020 17:25:59   #
straightUp Loc: California
 
RandyBrian wrote:
There is a huge solar wind farm north of Corpus Christi Texas. It was built with US taxpayer money, a LOT of it, and with the taxpayers providing operating subsidies for a number of years, and with the owners taking over all financial responsibility once it was operational and profitable. The owners never have to pay back the cost of building the hundreds of turbines. Guess what? I'm sure you do not have to. In an area that has ideal wind conditions for wind turbines, the company does not make enough profit to stay in business, even with zero original construction cost liability. So the government reluctantly agreed to continue the subsidies. The only other option was for the owner/operators to declare bankruptcy, and we would lose our 'investment'. As far as I'm aware, we are still paying subsidies to keep our pretty tall toys operating.
LOL. And these are the government bureaucrats that Obama/Biden wanted to guide and direct all our scientific research dollars. I expect that Biden/Harris has the same plan. No thank you. Neither wind nor solar are viable yet. Someday I hope they will be, but not yet.
I am all for alternate energy. Let's invest the money, develop it to functionality and affordability, and start using it. Let's get rid of using f****l f**ls for power generation, and reserve it for plastics and other non-polluting uses. But let's NOT put the horse before the cart. Functional and affordable FIRST.
There is a huge solar wind farm north of Corpus Ch... (show quote)


That's one of the things government is good for. There's actually not much innovation in the commercial world that isn't built on top of technologies that were incubated by tax-funded programs when returns on investment were too low for private sector business plans.

Actually, the cost of sustainable energy is dropping considerably these days. And one could argue that the only reason why oil remains cheap is because of the recent flood of oil from shale, but how long will that last?

Personally, I think curbing emissions is just as important as affordability. Besides, so what if energy is more expensive? It just means we'll be forced to adapt, forced to be more creative, more resilient, stronger, better and CLEANER! No pain no gain, right?

Reply
 
 
Sep 15, 2020 17:29:41   #
Cuda2020
 
straightUp wrote:
If liberals in general had their way, we wouldn't just be less dependent on oil from OPEC we would be less dependent on oil PERIOD!


Now wouldn't that be something...

Reply
Sep 15, 2020 18:01:34   #
Rose42
 
straightUp wrote:
What analogy? And how do you measure someone's intellectual integrity with an analogy anyway? That doesn't even make sense.


{sigh} Nevermind. The point went right over your head.

Quote:
So it's not that I lack integrity, it's that you don't agree with my argument. Or is there no difference as far as you're concerned? Agreeing with you... it that what integrity means, Rose?


No, its because your topic is dishonest. Just more partisan nonsense.

Quote:
Two things... I know for a fact that patients are not asked whether they planned the a******n out of convenience and just the fact that you said, "some consider theirs on the low side" proves the statistics are not factual. What you have are guesses and the more prejudice the person, the higher the guess is going to be.


You do like to play semantics. And no what I said doesn't prove the statistics aren't factual. You're entering nutter territory now. You can look or not. But of course you're wrong on this one and no wordsmithing on your part will change that.

Quote:
So... are we still talking about whether to blame Republicans for the fires? 'Cause it seems like you're just ranting about liberals in general.


You're wrong....again. Blaming republicans for the fires is nuts. As for liberals, there is much we can blame them for such as the growing amorality in our country. But I still think we need the best of liberalism and conservatism. Its not either or.

Quote:
And why wouldn't you? These are big problems so lots of people talk about them. I'm not a Republican Rose, to me a talking point isn't a script provided by my thought leaders. A talking point is an issue over which people can engage with their own thoughts. See the difference?


You're as much a sheep as anyone on the right and you've illustrated it in your third sentence. You believe you think for yourself but that belief is illusory. Many times I've seen you repeat propaganda as you just did.

Quote:
I don't think it's ridiculous at all, you just don't agree. If it wasn't for family planning and the option to abort legally, many of those embryos terminated in the first trimester, would develop into later term fetuses and be aborted then. Many more would be born to parents that can't provide for them, or that wind up resenting them. Others would be born with defects that guarantee a torturous childhood and a hopeless life. More would be born with drug addictions because the mother is on drugs. If Republicans got their way, there would be an over abundance of neglected and abused children growing into criminals and psychopaths. For these poor souls, being terminated as an embryo would save them from a life of misery. Mercy.
I don't think it's ridiculous at all, you just don... (show quote)


Oh my that too is propaganda. And k**l 'em early so you don't have to k**l them later! This is what's wrong with the democrat party - the pretense of caring for life. Sure they do but its only on their terms. Just like republicans. They are just a different side of the same rotten coin.

Quote:
The *lesser* evil (assuming there is any evil in Biden, which I really don't see) And you can't v**e for ANY candidate without running with one herd or another, Rose. I mean, seriously - think about it.


Biden supports the evils in the so-called "progressive" agenda. You can run with the herd if you want. A growing number of us want something better.

Reply
Sep 15, 2020 19:31:43   #
RandyBrian Loc: Texas
 
Barracuda2020 wrote:
Not available yet, you lost me on that one, its being used all over the place and creating a lot of new jobs. But we agree on the rest. Here's an informative, non political site, just some info
http://www.awea.org/wind-101/basics-of-wind-energy/wind-facts-at-a-glance


Okay. I looked at it. It may be non-political, but it is an industry webpage. Hardly non-biased. I did not see anything about how much of it is being paid for and/or subsidized by taxpayers. As I said in a prior post, when the government was set to end the subsidies on the wind farm near Corpus Christi, the owners said flat out they would declare bankruptcy because the wind farm was too expensive to keep running it without them It was a number of years ago. I have not researched it in 5 years or more, so perhaps technology has improved enough so that it is at least a break even project, but I doubt it.

Reply
Sep 15, 2020 19:33:40   #
RandyBrian Loc: Texas
 
straightUp wrote:
That's one of the things government is good for. There's actually not much innovation in the commercial world that isn't built on top of technologies that were incubated by tax-funded programs when returns on investment were too low for private sector business plans.

Actually, the cost of sustainable energy is dropping considerably these days. And one could argue that the only reason why oil remains cheap is because of the recent flood of oil from shale, but how long will that last?

Personally, I think curbing emissions is just as important as affordability. Besides, so what if energy is more expensive? It just means we'll be forced to adapt, forced to be more creative, more resilient, stronger, better and CLEANER! No pain no gain, right?
That's one of the things government is good for. T... (show quote)


Depends entirely on how MUCH more expensive it is.

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