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"A word of caution about premature conclusions" Malasian Airliner.
Jul 18, 2014 03:15:04   #
Patty
 
A word of caution about premature conclusions



I am very sorry to have to tell you all that it is too early to conclude that the Novorussian forces did not shoot down the Malaysian airliners. Though most Novorussian air defense systems are man-portable, the Resistance forces did get their hands on some 9K37 Buk missile systems which are quite capable of hitting a civilian airliner at normal cruising speed and altitude.

I am not, repeat, NOT saying that the Novorussians did it. Furthermore, at least one Russian military expert, Igor Korochenko, has declared that the Ukrainian side had officially declared that the Ukrainian soldiers had managed to disable these systems before they fell into the Novorussian hands. But even that is hardly proof of anything. First, I have seen no such Ukrainian official statement. Second, the Ukrainians soldiers could have lied to cover their collective read ends. Third, the Novorusssians could have fixed these systems. So unless the Novorussians have some solid proof that their Buks were inoperable, they have to be included in a list of possible suspects.

There are already speculations about a false flag, about Ukie military aircraft seen flying next to the Malaysian aircraft, even about some parachutes seen near the place were the plane was shot down. I have even seen some speculations about Putin's official aircraft looking like the Malaysian one and that this could have been an attempt to shoot it down. Clearly the rumor mill is blasting at full power.

Still, the Ukies have already immensely benefited from this incident: now that all the media is completely focused on what happened to this Malaysian airliner, nobody is informed of the catastrophic failure of Poroshenko "surprise" offensive. Right there we already have the first cui bono going to the junta. Second, since no matter what happened the western regimes and media will blame the Russians for this incident, the Ukies will use it in their propaganda campaign (they apparently have already asked NATO for "help" whatever that means). So that is a second cui bono for the junta. As for the Novorussians and Russia, this incident is really the last thing they need.

For whatever it's worth, and without wanting to give anybody false hopes, I personally think that it is extremely unlikely that the Russians did it because they have a fully integrated, multi layered, advance air defense systems staffed only by specialists. In contrast, the Ukies have an old, decrepit, non-integrated air defense "system" staffed by underpaid, demoralized and poorly trained conscripts. And since the Kremlin likes to maintain the illusion that it does not control the Novorussians, even if there is proof that the latter are responsible for this catastrophe, this will not directly implicate Russia (which would have been the worst option). I hope that the Russians will be able to prove that the Novorussians did not do it by, for example, finding key parts of the missile(s) which hit MH17 or by showing all the Resistance missiles "unshot", right there in the hangars were they were found.

Another thing which has not been done is a careful calculation of the exact flight envelope of the missiles in Novorussian hands. In the real world, you cannot just say that a missile can shoot a target going at speed X and altitude Y. You need to calculate an exact flight envelope and compare it against the exact flight characteristics of the target supposedly hit. In other words, until somebody makes such an analysis, there is no proof that the Novorussian Buks could have shot down this aircraft.

Then, let's see what the black boxes show. Apparently, those were found by the good guys and sent to Moscow. Also, the Russian Air Defenses have the exact flight parameters of the Malaysian aircraft and of any missile(s) which could have hit him. If the Ukies did it, chances are pretty good that the Russians will be able to prove it. Alas, if the Novorussians did it, the Russians will probably also provide the evidence as covering up for it would be foolish.

For the time being, let's not run after each rumor and let's just wait for 48 hours or so, when at least we will have some facts to look at. And let's pray that this was not a mistake by the Novorussians.

The Saker

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Jul 18, 2014 16:44:56   #
jonhatfield Loc: Green Bay, WI
 
I couldn't resist checking in on OPP to see the Putin propaganda that Putin's Patty & crew would post about MH17.

Wow! After yesterday and today's twist-and-turn postings on the passenger plane shot down, there is no possibility any Patty posting (or any from Paul Craig R.) can be taken as anything but plain Russian fascist propaganda ever again. Game over, Putin Patty. No way now for anyone to see you as anything other than a Putin propagandist from now on.

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Jul 18, 2014 16:50:21   #
PeterS
 
Patty wrote:


For the time being, let's not run after each rumor and let's just wait for 48 hours or so, when at least we will have some facts to look at. And let's pray that this was not a mistake by the Novorussians.

The Saker

Then what was the purpose of this post?

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Jul 19, 2014 06:01:09   #
Patty
 
When did you get out? Are you going to follow your doctors instruction this time so you can stay out? Your paranoia doesn't seem to have lessened any Im afraid to tell you.
jonhatfield wrote:
I couldn't resist checking in on OPP to see the Putin propaganda that Putin's Patty & crew would post about MH17.

Wow! After yesterday and today's twist-and-turn postings on the passenger plane shot down, there is no possibility any Patty posting (or any from Paul Craig R.) can be taken as anything but plain Russian fascist propaganda ever again. Game over, Putin Patty. No way now for anyone to see you as anything other than a Putin propagandist from now on.

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Jul 19, 2014 06:02:16   #
Patty
 
Just to get you to click. Its all about you Richard.
PeterS wrote:
Then what was the purpose of this post?

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Jul 20, 2014 16:17:32   #
jonhatfield Loc: Green Bay, WI
 
Patty wrote:
Just to get you to click. Its all about you Richard.


Wowzers, Putin Patty, your side's failure to man up and the details that emerge hourly on the separatist shoot down of the Malasian passenger plane & Russia's involvement seem to have put you in a really sour mood. Get used to it, "sweetie." It will only get worse day by day. Your dear leader has been outed for the bully thug he is and you have outed yourself as a damage control and cover-up propagandist. :XD: :XD: :XD:

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Jul 21, 2014 05:41:01   #
Patty
 
Why are you so gullible Richard? The US has already been exposed internationally as being the liars.
The OSCE is on the site as proven by them stating so and video. Why does Washington keep saying the separatists wont allow them access?
http://en.itar-tass.com/world/741532
jonhatfield wrote:
Wowzers, Putin Patty, your side's failure to man up and the details that emerge hourly on the separatist shoot down of the Malasian passenger plane & Russia's involvement seem to have put you in a really sour mood. Get used to it, "sweetie." It will only get worse day by day. Your dear leader has been outed for the bully thug he is and you have outed yourself as a damage control and cover-up propagandist. :XD: :XD: :XD:

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Jul 21, 2014 11:03:01   #
jonhatfield Loc: Green Bay, WI
 
Patty wrote:
Why are you so gullible Richard? The US has already been exposed internationally as being the liars.
The OSCE is on the site as proven by them stating so and video. Why does Washington keep saying the separatists wont allow them access?
http://en.itar-tass.com/world/741532


Full access? You think anyone is gullible enough to believe your damage control and cover up postings of partials when they can see what the separatist thugs are doing on site on videos from reporters on the scene? Thug Putin's credibility is now toast from his meddling in eastern Ukraine and this resulting tragedy. Your credibility, Putin Patty, and that of Putin Paul Craig Roberts, is burnt toast from your rush to damage control and cover up of Russian fascism's Ukraine operation and its shooting down . Wowzers, in your first damage control stupid post you even referred to the Russian separatist thug puppets as "patriot separatists"! Propaganda Patty goofs again. Your Russian handlers are going to fire you. :XD:

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Jul 21, 2014 11:18:19   #
Patty
 
You haven't been keeping up have you.
GAMES OVER Richard.
Russia just exposed that it was Kiev and not the separatists.
Apology accepted. Now run away with your tail between your legs like you always do,
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-07-21/russia-says-has-photos-ukraine-deploying-buk-missiles-east-rader-proof-warplanes-mh1
jonhatfield wrote:
Full access? You think anyone is gullible enough to believe your damage control and cover up postings of partials when they can see what the separatist thugs are doing on site on videos from reporters on the scene? Thug Putin's credibility is now toast from his meddling in eastern Ukraine and this resulting tragedy. Your credibility, Putin Patty, and that of Putin Paul Craig Roberts, is burnt toast from your rush to damage control and cover up of Russian fascism's Ukraine operation and its shooting down . Wowzers, in your first damage control stupid post you even referred to the Russian separatist thug puppets as "patriot separatists"! Propaganda Patty goofs again. Your Russian handlers are going to fire you. :XD:
Full access? You think anyone is gullible enough t... (show quote)

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