bmac32 Loc: West Florida

The nonpartisan Congressional Budget Office (CBO) determined in early 2011 that the president's healthcare overhaul would cost the US economy 800,000 jobs. Democrats balked at the figure, insisting that the new law would be a job creation boon. Nancy Pelosi said a fully-implemented Obamacare program would create four million American jobs -- and 400,000 "almost immediately:"

http://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_embedded&v=njYCjf1GNaM

Implementation is upon us, and the CBO has revised its numbers:


The Affordable Care Act will also reduce the number of fulltime workers by more than 2 million in coming years, congressional budget analysts said in the most detailed analysis of the law’s impact on jobs. The CBO said the law’s impact on jobs would be mostly felt starting after 2016. The agency previously estimated that the economy would have 800,000 fewer jobs as a result of the law. The impact is likely to be most felt, the CBO said, among low-wage workers. The agency said that most of the effect would come from Americans deciding not to seek work as a result of the ACA’s impact on the economy. Some workers may forgo employment, while others may reduce hours, for a equivalent of at least 2 million fulltime workers dropping out of the labor force.


The official numbers indicate that more than two million Americans will simply leave the work force (the workforce participation rate is already at a 36-year low) over the next four years as a result of the "Affordable" Care Act. Jake Tapper on the analysis' raw estimates:

p. 127 of CBO report ACA means reduction in full-time-equivalent employment of ~2M in 2017 rising to ~2.5M 2024 http://www.cbo.gov/sites/default/files/cbofiles/attachments/45010-Outlook2014.pdf
— Jake Tapper (@jaketapper) February 4, 2014


Democrats' sunny expectations were only off by about six million jobs -- in the wrong direction. NBC's Chuck Todd notices that the nonpartisan data reinforces Republicans' warnings about the law from day one. Vindication:

CBO essentially reaffirms GOP talking points on health care. Says it will cost jobs, feel as if it raises taxes and contributes to deficit
— Chuck Todd (@chucktodd) February 4, 2014


The GOP campaign ads practically write themselves. This law is increasing national healthcare spending, raising premiums and out-of-pocket costs for millions, kicking people off of their preferred plans, limiting patients' access to care, contributing to deficits, and drastically reducing employment. Panicked lefties online are squealing that the report merely states that people will choose to leave the workforce, not that Obamacare will directly k**l jobs, per se. Good luck with that argument. Over the next few years, millions fewer Americans will get up in the morning and go to work because of Obamacare's impact on the economy. The report's authors have concluded that the healthcare reform discourages work. That's horrible, unspinnable news. Attempts to spin it will sound desperate and tone deaf. The public will not buy "less people working" as anything other than bad news. Ross Douthat elaborates on Todd's point about the law "feeling" as if it's raising taxes (beyond, you know, the taxes -- including the Mother Tax):


@chucktodd @jonathanchait The bill, by design, avoids explicit middle class tax increases by charging higher middle class premiums instead.
— Ross Douthat (@DouthatNYT) February 4, 2014


Another note from the CBO document: Democrats touted a $900 billion price tag for the law in 2010, citing a cynically-manufactured CBO score. What will the first ten years of Obamacare cost now that it's in full swing? More than $2 trillion. Beyond that, the government's projected Obamacare enrollment total for 2014 has dropped by one million people. Paul Ryan's office also notes that on our current path, the annual deficit is expect to shrink to "only" $514 billion next year (Bush's average deficit was in the neighborhood of $250 billion, even with two active wars), but it will begin a steady climb after 2015, hitting $1 trillion within eight years:

CBO says in long-term "large & growing federal debt could have serious negative consequences, inc. restraining economic growth..."
— Philip Klein (@philipaklein) February 4, 2014


Our short-term deficits problem isn't good. Our long-term obligations crisis is a disaster, and Democrats have no solutions to fix it -- aside from raising taxes on "the rich," which they've already done, and won't work. Kevin has more on the overall report here. I'll leave you with a reminder that we call this. All of it.


UPDATE - It seems our president has devised a stellar economic plan. Awful:

Fry cook asks Obama about getting cut back to part time b/c of Obamacare, Obama tells him Congress needs to pass a minimum wage increase.

Raylan Wolfe Loc: earth

Fact Check: No, CBO did not say Obamacare will K**l 2 Million Jobs

http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/fact-checker/wp/2014/02/04/no-cbo-did-not-say-obamacare-will-k**l-2-million-jobs/?wprss=rss_national

BoJester

Good post Raylan. Watch how the rightwingnuts will try to dismiss this report, but they lapped it up when it suited them

Raylan Wolfe Loc: earth

Thanks, I have more!

BoJester

Keep them coming. Make the fools heads explode and their eyes bleed from having their lies revealed

Raylan Wolfe Loc: earth

What the CBO Report On Obamacare Really Said

http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/plum-line/wp/2014/02/04/what-the-cbo-report-on-obamacare-really-found/


The CBO Report actually says that the impact of the ACA will be "almost entirely" due to the decline in labor that "workers choose to supply." It say's explicitly that the ACA's impact will not be felt as an "increase of unemployment or underemployment"

Unclet Loc: Amarillo, Tx

You are right - it said 2.3 million in 2021.
from your own link.

Here we go again. During the 2012 campaign, The Fact Checker had to repeatedly explain that the Congressional Budget Office never said that the Affordable Care Act “k**led” 800,000 jobs by 2021. Now, the CBO has released an updated estimate, nearly the triple the size of the earlier one: 2.3 million in 2021.

Raylan Wolfe Loc: earth

Nope, Obamacare Will Not Cost 2 Million Jobs

http://gawker.com/nope-obamacare-wont-k**l-2-million-full-time-jobs-1515973539


The conservatives cackle "Obamacare will mean 2 million less workers" it's bulls**t. Born of the conservative medias over simplification and the right wings malicious stupidity! The t***h is good news!

Unclet Loc: Amarillo, Tx

Go read your own link at the Washington Post - you have to look below the picture sometimes. It is time consuming, but please read.

Raylan Wolfe Loc: earth

CBO's report explicitly said that the ACA's impact will not be felt as an "increase of unemployment or underemployment"

bmac32 Loc: West Florida

Don't argue with with the liberals they can't even comprehend their own posts. Argue all day long, the CBO is always wrong and usually on the low end of how thing end up.

Raylan Wolfe Loc: earth

If CBO is always wrong why would use them for a source to create a new topic???????????????????

UncleJesse Loc: Hazzard Co, GA

Those lucky folks that do not need to work full time or at all because of Obamacare gives hope to the rest of us.

I ran into a few of them at work over the years who said they'd retire now but the cost of insurance is so high, they're working just for the insurance benefit.

Good for them and for us.

Now they can retire and will drive our pay up due to a labor shortage.

bmac32 Loc: West Florida

CBO is a measuring stick and has been for years. 9 out of 10 times they low ball the actual price.

Raylan Wolfe Loc: earth

CBO also said in the report that you refer to, say's "explicitly" that the ACA"s impact will not be felt as an "increase in unemployment or under employment."